The ERA-40 re-analysis

ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized. A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the second-generation ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2005. The contributions of N. A. Rayner and R. W. Saunders are Crown copyright.

The Mersey Basin: an historical assessment of water quality from an anecdotal perspective

The freshwaters of the Mersey Basin have been seriously polluted for over 200 years. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the water quality was relatively clean before the start of the Industrial Revolution. The development of the cotton and chemical industries increased the pollution load to rivers, and consequently a decline in biota supported by the water was observed. Industrial prosperity led to a rapid population increase and an increase in domestic effluent. Poor treatment of this waste meant that it was a significant pollutant. As industry intensified during the 19th century, the mix of pollutants grew more complex. Eventually, in the 1980s, the government acknowledged the problem and more effort was made to improve the water quality. Knowledge of social and economic history, as well as anecdotal evidence, has been used in this paper to extrapolate the changes in water quality that occurred. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Causes of the apparent scale independence of fractal indices associated with forest fragmentation in Bolivia

In a recent investigation, Landsat TM and ETM+ data were used to simulate different resolutions of remotely-sensed images (from 30 to 1100 m) and to analyze the effect of resolution on a range of landscape metrics associated with spatial patterns of forest fragmentation in Chapare, Bolivia since the mid-1980s. Whereas most metrics were found to be highly dependent on pixel size, several fractal metrics (DLFD, MPFD, and AWMPFD) were apparently independent of image resolution, in contradiction with a sizeable body of literature indicating that fractal dimensions of natural objects depend strongly on image characteristics. The present re-analysis of the Chapare images, using two alternative algorithms routinely used for the evaluation of fractal dimensions, shows that the values of the box-counting and information fractal dimensions are systematically larger, sometimes by as much as 85%, than the "fractal" indices DLFD, MPFD, and AWMFD for the same images. In addition, the geometrical fractal features of the forest and non-forest patches in the Chapare region strongly depend on the resolution of images used in the analysis. The largest dependency on resolution occurs for the box-counting fractal dimension in the case of the non-forest patches in 1993, where the difference between the 30 and I 100 m-resolution images corresponds to 24% of the full theoretical range (1.0 to 2.0) of the mass fractal dimension. The observation that the indices DLFD, MPFD, and AWMPFD, unlike the classical fractal dimensions, appear relatively unaffected by resolution in the case of the Chapare images seems due essentially to the fact that these indices are based on a heuristic, "non-geometric" approach to fractals. Because of their lack of a foundation in fractal geometry, nothing guarantees that these indices will be resolution-independent in general. (C) 2006 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting the adoption of leguminous cover crops in Nigeria and a comparison with the adoption of new crop varieties

This paper presents the results of (a) On-farm trials (eight) over a two-year period designed to test the effectiveness of leguminous cover crops in terms of increasing maize yields in Igalaland, Nigeria. (b) A survey designed to monitor the extent of, and reasons behind, adoption of the leguminous cover crop technology in subsequent years by farmers involved, to varying degrees, in the trial programme. particular emphasis was placed on comparing adoption of leguminous cover crops with that of new crop varieties released by a non-governmental organization in the same area since the mid 1980s. While the leguminous cover crop technology boosted maize grain yields by 127 to 136% above an untreated control yield of between 141 and 171 kg ha(-1), the adoption rate (number of farmers adopting) was only 18%. By way of contrast, new crop varieties had a highly variable benefit in terms of yield advantage over local varieties, with the best average increase of around 20%. Adoption rates for new crop varieties, assessed as both the number of farmers growing the varieties and the number of plots planted to the varieties, were 40% on average. The paper discusses some key factors influencing adoption of the leguminous cover crop technology, including seed availability. Implications of these results for a local non-governmental organization, the Diocesan Development Services, concerned with promoting the leguminous cover crop technology are also discussed.

Promoting sustainability: Efficacy and adoption of tobacco-based insecticides in Nigeria

The promotion of technologies seen to be aiding in the attainment of agricultural sustainability has been Popular amongst Northern-based development donors for many years. One of these, botanical insecticides (e.g., those based on neem, Pyrethrum and tobacco) have been a particular favorite as they are equated with being 'natural' and hence less damaging to human health and the environment. This paper describes the outcome of interactions between one non-government organisation (NGO), the Diocesan Development Services (DDS), based in Kogi State, Nigeria, and a major development donor based in Europe that led to the establishment of a programme designed to promote the Virtues of a tobacco-based insecticide to small-scale farmers. The Tobacco Insecticide Programme (TIP) began in the late 1980s and ended in 200 1, absorbing significant quantities of resource in the process. TIP began with exploratory investigations of efficacy on the DDS seed multiplication farm followed by stages of researcher-managed and farmer-managed on-farm trials. A survey in 2002 assessed adoption of the technology by farmers. While yield benefits from using the insecticide were nearly always positive and statistically significant relative to an untreated control, they were not as good as commercial insecticides. However, adoption of the tobacco insecticide by local farmers was poor. The paper discusses the reasons for poor adoption, including relative benefits in gross margin, and uses the TIP example to explore the differing power relationships that exist between donors, their field partners and farmers. (C) 2004 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential for clean yam minisett production by resource-poor farmers in the middle-belt of Nigeria

Yarn minisett technique (YMT) has been promoted throughout West Africa since the 1980s as a sustainable means of producing clean yarn planting material, but adoption of the technique is Often reported as being patchy at best. While there has been much research Oil the factors that influence adoption of the technique, there have been no attempts to assess its economic viability under 'farmer-managed' as distinct from 'on station' conditions. The present paper describes the results of farmer-managed trials employing the YMT (white yarn: Dioscorea rotundata) at two villages in Igalaland, Kogi State, Nigeria. One of the villages (Edeke) is on the banks of the River Niger and represents it specialist yarn environment, whereas the other village (Ekwuloko) is inland, where farmers employ a more general cropping system. Four farmers were selected in each of the two villages and asked to plant a trial comprising two varieties of yam, their popular local variety its well its another variety grown in other parts of Igalaland, and to treat yarn setts (80-100 g) with either woodash or insecticide/nematicide + fungicide mix (chemical treatment). Results suggest that while chemical sett treatment increased yield and hence gross margin compared with woodash, if household labour is costed then YMT is not economically viable. However, the specialist yarn growers of Edeke were far more positive about the use of YMT as they tended to keep the yarn seed tubers for planting rather than sell them. Thus, great care needs to be taken with planning adoption surveys on the assumption that all farmers should adopt a technology.

Changing times, changing places: urban development and the politics of space - time

Much of the writing on urban regeneration in the UK has been focused on the types of urban spaces that have been created in city centres. Less has been written about the issue of when the benefits of regeneration could and should be delivered to a range of different interests, and the different time frames that exist in any development area. Different perceptions of time have been reflected in dominant development philosophies in the UK and elsewhere. The trickle-down agendas of the 1980s, for example, were criticised for their focus on the short-term time frames and needs of developers, often at the expense of those of local communities. The recent emergence of sustainability discourses, however, ostensibly changes the time focus of development and promotes a broader concern with new imagined futures. This paper draws on the example of development in Salford Quays, in the North West of England, to argue that more attention needs to be given to the politics of space-time in urban development processes. It begins by discussing the importance and relevance of this approach before turning to the case study and the ways in which the local politics of space-time has influenced development agendas and outcomes. The paper argues that such an approach harbours the potential for more progressive, far-reaching, and sustainable development agendas to be developed and implemented.

Trends in aerosol optical depth in the Russian Arctic and their links with synoptic climatology

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 degrees N and 80.6 degrees N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1930s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high A OD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or anticyclonic conditions result in high atmospheric turbidity. The frequency of this weather type has declined significantly since the early 1980s in the Kara-Laptev sector, which partly explains the decline in summer AOD values. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: Observations and model results

Observations show the oceans have warmed over the past 40 yr. with appreciable regional variation and more warming at the surface than at depth. Comparing the observations with results from two coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models [the Parallel Climate Model version 1 (PCM) and the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3)] that include anthropogenic forcing shows remarkable agreement between the observed and model-estimated warming. In this comparison the models were sampled at the same locations as gridded yearly observed data. In the top 100 m of the water column the warming is well separated from natural variability, including both variability arising from internal instabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system and that arising from volcanism and solar fluctuations. Between 125 and 200 m the agreement is not significant, but then increases again below this level, and remains significant down to 600 m. Analysis of PCM's heat budget indicates that the warming is driven by an increase in net surface heat flux that reaches 0.7 W m(-2) by the 1990s; the downward longwave flux increases bv 3.7 W m(-2). which is not fully compensated by an increase in the upward longwave flux of 2.2 W m(-2). Latent and net solar heat fluxes each decrease by about 0.6 W m(-2). The changes in the individual longwave components are distinguishable from the preindustrial mean by the 1920s, but due to cancellation of components. changes in the net surface heat flux do not become well separated from zero until the 1960s. Changes in advection can also play an important role in local ocean warming due to anthropogenic forcing, depending, on the location. The observed sampling of ocean temperature is highly variable in space and time. but sufficient to detect the anthropogenic warming signal in all basins, at least in the surface layers, bv the 1980s.

Comparison of survival rates of captive-reared and wild-bred Mauritius kestrels (Falco punctatus) in a re-introduced population

Re-introduction is a technique widely used in the conservation of threatened bird species. With advances in aviculture the use of captive-produced individuals as the release stock is becoming more commonplace, and ideally, survival of captive-produced, released individuals should be no different from their wild-bred counterparts. During the late 1980s the Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) was successfully re-introduced into the Bambous mountain range, Mauritius, some 30 years after its local extinction. Between 1987 and 2001 the developing population was closely monitored enabling us to construct re-sighting histories for 88 released and 284 wild-bred kestrels. We used age-structured models in the survival analysis software program MARK to determine if an individual's origin influenced its subsequent survival. Our analysis indicated no compelling evidence for reduced survival among juvenile captive-reared and released individuals, relative to their wild-bred counterparts, across the majority of cohorts and only limited evidence of a cohort-specific effect. This study illustrates that despite the lack of a formal experimental approach it is still feasible to conduct an assessment of re-introduction outcomes and techniques.

Climate change and coastal waterbird populations – past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.

Stocking may increase mitochondrial DNA diversity but fails to halt the decline of endangered Atlantic salmon populations

Over the last 50 years, Spanish Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations have been in decline. In order to bolster these populations, rivers were stocked with fish of northern European origin during the period 1974-1996, probably also introducing the furunculosis-inducing pathogen, Aeromonas salmonicida. Here we assess the relative importance of processes influencing mitochondrial (mt)DNA variability in these populations from 1948 to 2002. Genetic material collected over this period from four rivers in northern Spain (Cantabria) was used to detect variability at the mtDNA ND1 gene. Before stocking, a single haplotype was found at high frequency (0.980). Following stocking, haplotype diversity (h) increased in all rivers (mean h before stocking was 0.041, and 0.245 afterwards). These increases were due principally to the dramatic increase in frequency of a previously very low frequency haplotype, reported at higher frequencies in northern European populations proximate to those used to stock Cantabrian rivers. Genetic structuring increased after stocking: among-river differentiation was low before stocking (1950s/1960s Phi(ST) = -0.00296-0.00284), increasing considerably at the height of stocking (1980s Phi(ST) = 0.18932) and decreasing post-stocking (1990s/2002 Phi(ST) = 0.04934-0.03852). Gene flow from stocked fish therefore seems to have had a substantial role in increasing mtDNA variability. Additionally, we found significant differentiation between individuals that had probably died from infectious disease and apparently healthy, angled fish, suggesting a possible role for pathogen-driven selection of mtDNA variation. Our results suggest that stocking with non-native fish may increase genetic diversity in the short term, but may not reverse population declines.