Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops

The formulation of a new process-based crop model, the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops is presented. The model has been designed to operate on spatial scales commensurate with those of global and regional climate models. It aims to simulate the impact of climate on crop yield. Procedures for model parameter determination and optimisation are described, and demonstrated for the prediction of groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) yields across India for the period 1966-1989. Optimal parameters (e.g. extinction coefficient, transpiration efficiency, rate of change of harvest index) were stable over space and time, provided the estimate of the yield technology trend was based on the full 24-year period. The model has two location-specific parameters, the planting date, and the yield gap parameter. The latter varies spatially and is determined by calibration. The optimal value varies slightly when different input data are used. The model was tested using a historical data set on a 2.5degrees x 2.5degrees grid to simulate yields. Three sites are examined in detail-grid cells from Gujarat in the west, Andhra Pradesh towards the south, and Uttar Pradesh in the north. Agreement between observed and modelled yield was variable, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.42 and 0, respectively. Skill was highest where the climate signal was greatest, and correlations were comparable to or greater than correlations with seasonal mean rainfall. Yields from all 35 cells were aggregated to simulate all-India yield. The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated yields was 0.76, and the root mean square error was 8.4% of the mean yield. The model can be easily extended to any annual crop for the investigation of the impacts of climate variability (or change) on crop yield over large areas. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

The rise of urban tourism in Havana since 1989

This article looks at the development of urban tourism in Havana, Cuba, in the period since the collapse of state socialism in the USSR and Eastern Europe. It provides an interesting case study of the adoption of an outward-oriented state development policy in the context of a socialist state. The dramatic rise of urban-based tourism in Havana since 1989 is described, followed by a review of the socio-economic impacts of such tourism. These include: income generation; job creation; the rise of the informal economy, including crime and prostitution; increased migration to the primary city, along with spatial concentration on the coastal strip, and associated environmental impacts. In conclusion, the article considers the fat that the promotion of tourism has returned Havana to some of the conditions that existed in the city Socialist Revolution in 1959.

Adapting Jules Verne for the baby-boom generation: Hachette and the Bibliothèque Verte, c.1956-1966

How do changing notions of children’s reading practices alter or even create classic texts? This article looks at how the nineteenth-century author Jules Verne (1828-1905) was modernised by Hachette for their Bibliothèque Verte children’s collection in the 1950s and 60s. Using the methodology of adaptation studies, the article reads the abridged texts in the context of the concerns that emerged in postwar France about what children were reading. It examines how these concerns shaped editorial policy, and the transformations that Verne’s texts underwent before they were considered suitable for the children of the baby-boom generation. It asks whether these adapted versions damaged Verne’s reputation, as many literary scholars have suggested, or if the process of dividing his readership into children and adults actually helped to reinforce the new idea of his texts as complex and multilayered. In so doing, this article provides new insights into the impact of postwar reforms on children’s publishing and explores the complex interplay between abridgment, censorship, children’s literature and the adult canon.

“There’s something very familiar about all this”: generic play and performance in the Back to the Future trilogy (Robert Zemeckis, 1985, 1989, 1990)

The Back to the Future Trilogy incorporates several different generic elements, including aspects of the fifties teen movie, science fiction, comedy and the western. These different modes playfully intertwine with each other creating a complex world of repetitions, echoes and modulations. This essay seeks to interrogate the construction of generic elements and the play between them through a close analysis of a repeated performance. Genre is signalled through various strategies employed within the construction of mise-en-scène, a significant portion of this, as I would like to argue, is transmitted through performance. The material detail of a performance – incorporating gesture, movement, voice, and even surrounding elements such as costume – as well as the way it its presented within a film is key to the establishment, invocation and coherence of genre. Furthermore, attention to the complexity of performance details, particularly in the manner in which they reverberate across texts, demonstrates the intricacy of genre and its inherent mutability. The Back to the Future trilogy represents a specific interest in the flexibility of genre. Within each film, and especially across all three, aspects of various genres are interlaced through both visual and narrative detail, thus constructing a dense layer of references both within and without the texts. To explore this patterning in more detail I will interrogate the contribution of performance to generic play through close analysis of Thomas F. Wilson’s performance of Biff/Griff/Burford Tannen and his central encounter with Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) in each film. These moments take place in a fifties diner, a 1980s retro diner and a saloon respectively, each space contributing the similarities and differences in each repetition. Close attention to Wilson’s performance of each related character, which contains both modulations and repetitions used specifically to place each film’s central generic theme, demonstrates how embedded the play between genres and their flexibility is within the trilogy.