An ensemble approach to uncertainty estimation for satellite-based rainfall estimates

UK commercial property lease structures: Landlord and tenant mismatch

UK commercial property lease structures have come under considerable scrutiny during the past decade since the property crash of the early 1990s. In particular, tenants complained that the system was unfair and that it has blocked business change. Government is committed, through its 2001 election manifesto, to promote flexibility and choice in the commercial property lettings market and a new voluntary Commercial Leases Code of Practice was launched in April 2002. This paper investigates whether occupiers are being offered the leases they require or whether there is a mismatch between occupier requirements and actual leases in the market. It draws together the substantial data now available on the actual terms of leases in the UK and surveys of corporate occupiers' attitude to their occupation requirements. Although the data indicated that UK leases have become shorter and more diverse since 1990, this is still not sufficient to meet the current requirements of many corporate occupiers. It is clear that the inability to manage entry and exit strategies is a major concern to occupiers. Lease length is the primary concern of tenants and a number of respondents comment on the mismatch between lease length in the UK and business planning horizons. The right to break and other problems with alienation clauses also pose serious difficulties for occupiers, thus reinforcing the mismatch. Other issues include repairing and insuring clauses and the type of review clause. There are differences in opinion between types of occupier. In particular, international corporate occupiers are significantly more concerned about the length of lease and the incidence of break clauses than national occupiers and private-sector tenants are significantly more concerned about leasing in general than public-sector occupiers. Proposed solutions by tenants are predictable and include shorter leases, more frequent breaks and relaxation of restrictions concerning alienation and other clauses. A significant number specify that they would pay more for shorter leases and other improved terms. Short leases would make many of the other terms more acceptable and this is why they are the main concern of corporate occupiers. Overall, the evidence suggests that there continues to be a gap between occupiers' lease requirements and those currently offered by the market. There are underlying structural factors that act as an inertial force on landlords and inhibit the changes which occupiers appear to want. Nevertheless, the findings raise future research questions concerning whether UK lease structures are a constraining factor on UK competitiveness.

How soccer players head the ball: a test of optic acceleration cancellation theory with virtual reality

We measured the movements of soccer players heading a football in a fully immersive virtual reality environment. In mid-flight the ball’s trajectory was altered from its normal quasi-parabolic path to a linear one, producing a jump in the rate of change of the angle of elevation of gaze (α) from player to ball. One reaction time later the players adjusted their speed so that the rate of change of α increased when it had been reduced and reduced it when it had been increased. Since the result of the player’s movement was to regain a value of the rate of change close to that before the disturbance, the data suggest that the players have an expectation of, and memory for, the pattern that the rate of change of α will follow during the flight. The results support the general claim that players intercepting balls use servo control strategies and are consistent with the particular claim of Optic Acceleration Cancellation theory that the servo strategy is to allow α to increase at a steadily decreasing rate.

Relation between neuronal morphology and electrophysiology in the Kainate lesion model of Alzheimer's Disease

This paper describes a computational and statistical study of the influence of morphological changes on the electrophysiological response of neurons from an animal model of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). We combined experimental morphological data from rat hippocampal CA1 pyramidal cells with a well-established model of active membrane properties. Dendritic morphology and the somatic response to simulated current clamp conditions were then compared for cells from the control and the AD group. The computational approach allowed us to single out the influences of neuromorphology on neuronal response by eliminating the effects of active channel variability. The results did not reveal a simple relationship between morphological changes associated with AD and changes in neural response. However, they did suggest the existence of more complex than anticipated relationships between dendritic morphology and single-cell electrophysiology.

Perceived helplessness is associated with individual differences in the central motor output system

Learned helplessness is a maladaptive response to uncontrollable stress characterized by impaired motor escape responses, reduced motivation and learning deficits. There are important individual differences in the likelihood of becoming helpless following exposure to uncontrollable stress but little is known about the neural mechanisms underlying these individual differences. Here we used structural MRI to measure gray and white matter in individuals with chronic pain, a population at high risk for helplessness due to prolonged exposure to a poorly controlled stressor (pain). Given that self-reported helplessness is predictive of treatment outcomes in chronic pain, understanding such differences might provide valuable clinical insight. We found that the magnitude of self-reported helplessness correlated with cortical thickness in the supplementary motor area (SMA) and midcingulate cortex, regions implicated in cognitive aspects of motor behavior. We then examined the white matter connectivity of these regions and found that fractional anisotropy of connected white matter tracts along the corticospinal tract was associated with helplessness and mediated the relationship between SMA cortical thickness and helplessness. These data provide novel evidence that links individual differences in the motor output pathway with perceived helplessness over a chronic and poorly controlled stressor.

Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks

The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6 ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6 ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6 ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the observed changes in precipitation in all regions. Evaluation of the southern-hemisphere monsoons is limited by lack of quantitative reconstructions, but suggest that model skill in simulating these monsoons is limited.

Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation.