Entre histoire et fiction: la représentation du règne d'Arthur dans le manuscrit enluminé du Brut en prose, Londres, Lambeth Palace 6 (c. 1480)

The manuscript London, Lambeth Palace 6, contains the Middle English prose Brut, a text which benefited from a great popularity throughout the fifteenth century. It was copied by an English scribe and richly illuminated by the Master of Edward IV and his assistants at Bruges around 1480. This article studies the representation and integration of the reign of Arthur in the historical framework of the Brut or Chronicles of England, including its fictional aspects: Arthur emerges as a historical character but also as a chivalric and mythical figure. The analysis covers the miniatures ranging from the plot leading to the conception of Arthur to the end of his reign (fols. 36-66). The textual and iconographic choices of the prose Bruts are highlighted by comparisons with Geoffrey of Monmouth’s Historia Regum Britanniae, Wace’s Brut, and later prose rewritings in the Lancelot-Grail romance cycle, especially Merlin and its Vulgate Sequel. They show the continuous interest raised by Arthur in the aristocratic and royal circles of late fifteenth century England and the relationship be¬tween continental and insular historiographical, literary and artistic traditions.

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.

Did farming arise from a misapplication of social intelligence?

The origins of farming is the defining event of human history-the one turning point that has resulted in modern humans having a quite different type of lifestyle and cognition to all other animals and past types of humans. With the economic basis provided by farming, human individuals and societies have developed types of material culture that greatly augment powers of memory and computation, extending the human mental capacity far beyond that which the brain alone can provide. Archaeologists have long debated and discussed why people began living in settled communities and became dependent on cultivated plants and animals, which soon evolved into domesticated forms. One of the most intriguing explanations was proposed more than 20 years ago not by an archaeologist but by a psychologist: Nicholas Humphrey suggested that farming arose from the 'misapplication of social intelligence'. I explore this idea in relation to recent discoveries and archaeological interpretations in the Near East, arguing that social intelligence has indeed played a key role in the origin of farming and hence the emergence of the modern world.

The automation and evaluation of nested clade phylogeographic analysis

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.

Achieving or exceeding maximum available feedback

A feedback system for control or electronics should have high loop gain, so that its output is close to its desired state, and the effects of changes in the system and of disturbances are minimised. Bode proposed a method for single loop feedback systems to obtain the maximum available feedback, defined as the largest possible loop gain over a bandwidth pertinent to the system, with appropriate gain and phase margins. The method uses asymptotic approximations, and this paper describes some novel adjustments to the asymptotes, so that the final system often exceeds the maximum available feedback. The implementation of the method requires the cascading of a series of lead-lag element. This paper describes a new way to determine how many elements should be used.

The synthesis, structure, and electrochemical properties of Fe(C CC N)(dppe)Cp and related compounds

The cyanoacetylide complex Fe(CCCN)(dppe)Cp (3) is readily obtained from sequential reaction of Fe(CCSiMe3)(dppe)Cp with methyllithium and phenyl cyanate. Complex 3 is a good metalloligand, and coordination to the metal fragments [RhCl(CO)(2)], [Ru(PPh3)(2)Cp](+), and [Ru(dppe)Cp*](+) affords the corresponding cyanoaceylide-bridged heterobimetallic complexes. In the case of the 36-electron complexes [Cp(dppe)Fe-CCCN-MLn](n+), spectroscopic and structural data are consistent with a degree of charge transfer from the iron centre to the rhodium or ruthenium centre via the C3N bridge, giving rise to a polarized ground state. Electrochemical and spectroelectrochemical methods reveal significant interactions between the metal centres in the oxidized (35 electron) derivatives, [Cp(dppe)Fe-CCCN-MLn]((n+1)+).

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 reanalysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.

The role of closed ecological systems in carbon cycle modelling

Acquiring a mechanistic understanding of the role of the biotic feedbacks on the links between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature is essential for trustworthy climate predictions. Currently, computer based simulations are the only available tool to estimate the global impact of the biotic feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2 and temperatures. Here we propose an alternative and complementary approaches by using materially closed and energetically open analogue/physical models of the carbon cycle. We argue that there is potential in using a materially closed approach to improve our understanding of the magnitude and sign of many biotic feedbacks, and that recent technological advance make this feasible. We also suggest how such systems could be designed and discuss the advantages and limitations of establishing physical models of the global carbon cycle.

Performance of palm- based fat blends with a low saturated fat content in puff pastry

Four fat blends based on palm fractions in combination with high oleic sunflower oil (HOSF) with a relatively low saturated fatty acid content (29.2±0.85%, i.e. less than 50% of that of butter) were prepared. The saturated fat was located in different triacylglycerols (TAG) structures in each blend. Principal saturated TAG were derived from palm stearin (POs, containing tripalmitoyl glycerol - PPP), palm mid fraction (PMF, containing 1,3-dipalmitoyl-2-oleoyl glycerol - POP) and interesterified PMF (inPMF, containing PPP, POP and rac-1,2-dipalmitoyl-3-oleoyl glycerol - PPO). Thus, in blend 1, composed of POs and HOSF, the saturates resided principally in PPP. In blend 2, composed of POs, PMF and HOSF, the principal saturate-containing TAG were PPP and POP. Blend 3, composed of inPMF and HOSF, was similar to blend 2 except that the disaturated TAG comprised a 2:1 mixture of PPO:POP. Finally, blend 4, a mixture of PMF and HOSF, had saturates present mainly as POP. The physical properties and the functionality of blends, as shortenings for puff pastry laminated in a warm bakery environment (20-30°C), were compared with each other, and with butter. Puff pastry prepared with blend 1 (POs:HOSF 29:71) and blend 4 (PMF:HOSF 41:59), was very hard; blend 2 (POs:PMF:HOSF 13:19:68) was most similar to butter in the compressibility of the baked product and it performed well in an independent baking trial; blend 3 (inPMF:HOSF 40:60) gave a product that required a higher force for compression than butter.

Climate variability-observations, reconstructions, and model simulations for the Atlantic-European and Alpine region from 1500-2100 AD

A detailed analysis is undertaken of the Atlantic-European climate using data from 500-year-long proxy-based climate reconstructions, a long climate simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing, as well as two global and one regional climate change scenarios. The observed and simulated interannual variability and teleconnectivity are compared and interpreted in order to improve the understanding of natural climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales for the late Holocene. The focus is set on the Atlantic-European and Alpine regions during the winter and summer seasons, using temperature, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The climate reconstruction shows pronounced interdecadal variations that appear to “lock” the atmospheric circulation in quasi-steady long-term patterns over multi-decadal periods controlling at least part of the temperature and precipitation variability. Different circulation patterns are persistent over several decades for the period 1500 to 1900. The 500-year-long simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing shows some substantial differences, with a more unsteady teleconnectivity behaviour. Two global scenario simulations indicate a transition towards more stable teleconnectivity for the next 100 years. Time series of reconstructed and simulated temperature and precipitation over the Alpine region show comparatively small changes in interannual variability within the time frame considered, with the exception of the summer season, where a substantial increase in interannual variability is simulated by regional climate models.

A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate cahgne projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.

Cyclic prefixed OQAM-OFDM and its application to single-carrier FDMA

Single-carrier frequency division multiple access (SC-FDMA) has appeared to be a promising technique for high data rate uplink communications. Aimed at SC-FDMA applications, a cyclic prefixed version of the offset quadrature amplitude modulation based OFDM (OQAM-OFDM) is first proposed in this paper. We show that cyclic prefixed OQAMOFDM CP-OQAM-OFDM) can be realized within the framework of the standard OFDM system, and perfect recovery condition in the ideal channel is derived. We then apply CP-OQAMOFDM to SC-FDMA transmission in frequency selective fading channels. Signal model and joint widely linear minimum mean square error (WLMMSE) equalization using a prior information with low complexity are developed. Compared with the existing DFTS-OFDM based SC-FDMA, the proposed SC-FDMA can significantly reduce envelope fluctuation (EF) of the transmitted signal while maintaining the bandwidth efficiency. The inherent structure of CP-OQAM-OFDM enables low-complexity joint equalization in the frequency domain to combat both the multiple access interference and the intersymbol interference. The joint WLMMSE equalization using a prior information guarantees optimal MMSE performance and supports Turbo receiver for improved bit error rate (BER) performance. Simulation resultsconfirm the effectiveness of the proposed SC-FDMA in termsof EF (including peak-to-average power ratio, instantaneous-toaverage power ratio and cubic metric) and BER performances.

Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change.