The cumulus-capped boundary layer. I: Modelling transports in the cloud layer

Scalar-flux budgets have been obtained from large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the cumulus-capped boundary layer. Parametrizations of the terms in the budgets are discussed, and two parametrizations for the transport term in the cloud layer are proposed. It is shown that these lead to two models for scalar transports by shallow cumulus convection. One is equivalent to the subsidence detrainment form of convective tendencies obtained from mass-flux parametrizations of cumulus convection. The second is a flux-gradient relationship that is similar in form to the non-local parametrizations of turbulent transports in the dry-convective boundary layer. Using the fluxes of liquid-water potential temperature and total water content from the LES, it is shown that both models are reasonable diagnostic relations between fluxes and the vertical gradients of the mean fields. The LESs used in this study are for steady-state convection and it is possible to treat the fluxes of conserved thermodynamic variables as independent, and ignore the effects of condensation. It is argued that a parametrization of cumulus transports in a model of the cumulus-capped boundary layer should also include an explicit representation of condensation. A simple parametrization of the liquid-water flux in terms of conserved variables is also derived.

Bayesian estimation of willingness-to-pay where respondents mis-report their preferences

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239-269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non-pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis-reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis-reporting in favour of the non-pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.

Dichotomous-choice contingent valuation with 'don't know' responses and misreporting

A new approach is presented that simultaneously deals with Misreporting and Don't Know (DK) responses within a dichotomous-choice contingent valuation framework. Utilising a modification of the standard Bayesian Probit framework, a Gibbs with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to estimate the posterior densities for the parameters of interest. Several model specifications are applied to two contingent valuation datasets: one on wolf management plans, and one on the US Fee Demonstration Program. We find that DKs are more likely to be from people who would be predicted to have positive utility for the bid. Therefore, a DK is more likely to be a YES than a NO. We also find evidence of misreporting, primarily in favour of the NO option. The inclusion of DK responses has an unpredictable impact on willingness-to-pay estimates, since it impacts differently on the results for the two datasets we examine. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayes estimates of distance-to-market: Transactions costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non-participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for Positive marketable surplus -'distances-to market'-are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left-censored at some Unobserved thresholds production efficiencies are heterogeneous: and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise ant because they are fundamental to the data-generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second. because selling, involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum Sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third. the Potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production) innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market-precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright (c) 20 08 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effect of environment on endosperm cell-wall development in Triticum aestivum during grain filling: an infrared spectroscopic imaging study

One of the major factors contributing to the failure of new wheat varieties is seasonal variability in end-use quality. Consequently, it is important to produce varieties which are robust and stable over a range of environmental conditions. Recently developed sample preparation methods have allowed the application of FT-IR spectroscopic imaging methods to the analysis of wheat endosperm cell wall composition, allowing the spatial distribution of structural components to be determined without the limitations of conventional chemical analysis. The advantages of the methods, described in this paper, are that they determine the composition of endosperm cell walls in situ and with minimal modification during preparation. Two bread-making wheat cultivars, Spark and Rialto, were selected to determine the impact of environmental conditions on the cell-wall composition of the starchy endosperm of the developing and mature grain, focusing on the period of grain filling (starting at about 14 days after anthesis). Studies carried out over two successive seasons show that the structure of the arabinoxylans in the endosperm cell walls changes from a highly branched form to a less branched form. Furthermore, during development the rate of restructuring was faster when the plants were grown at higher temperature with restricted water availability from 14 days after anthesis with differences in the rate of restructuring occurring between the two cultivars.

Synthesis, crystal structure, magnetic behavior and thermal property of three polynuclear complexes: [M(dca)(2)(H2O)2](n)center dot(hmt)(n) [M = Mn(II), Co(II)] and [Co(dca)(2)(bpds)](n) [dca, dicyanamide; hint, hexamethylenetetramine; bpds, 4,4 '-bipyridyl disulfide]

Three mu(1.5)-dicyanamide bridged Mn(II) and Co(II) complexes having molecular formula [Mn(dca)(2)(H2O)(2)](n)center dot(hmt)(n) (1), [Co(dca)(2) (H2O)(2)](n)center dot(hmt)(n) (2) and [Co(dca)(2)(bpds)](n) (3) [dca = dicyanamide; hmt = hexamethylenetetramine; bpds = 4,4'-bipyridyl disulfide] have been synthesized and characterized by single crystal X-ray diffraction study, low temperature (300-2 K) magnetic measurement and thermal behavior. The X-ray diffraction analysis of 1 and 2 reveals that they are isostructural, comprising of 1D coordination polymers [M(dca)(2)(H2O)(2)](n) [M = Mn(II), Co(II) for 1 and 2. respectively] with uncoordinated hmt molecules located among the chains. The [M(dca)(2)(H2O)(2)](n) chains and the lattice hint molecules are connected through H-bonds resulting in a 3D supramolecular architecture. The octahedral N4O2 chromophore surrounding the metal ion forms via two trans located water oxygens and four nitrogens from four nitrile dca. Complex 3 is a 1D chain formed by two mu(1.5)-dca and one bridging bpds. The octahedral N-6 coordination sphere surrounding the cobalt ions comprises four nitrogens from dca and two from bpds. Low temperature magnetic study indicates small antiferromagnetic coupling for all the complexes. Best fit parameters for 1: J = -0.17 cm(-1), g = -2.03 with R = 6.1 x 10(-4), for 2, J = -0.50 cm(-1), and for 3, J = -0.95 cm(-1). (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microbiology of the human intestinal tract and approaches for its dietary modulation

Gut bacteria can be categorised as being either beneficial or potentially pathogenic due to their metabolic activities and fermentation end-products. Health-promoting effects of the microflora may include immunostimulation, improved digestion and absorption, vitamin synthesis, inhibition of the growth of potential pathogens and lowering of gas distension. Detrimental effects are carcinogen production, intestinal putrefaction, toxin production, diarrhoea/constipation and intestinal infections. Certain indigenous bacteria such as bifidobacteria and lactobacilli are considered to be examples of health-promoting constituents of the microflora. They may aid digestion of lactose in lactose-intolerant individuals, reduce diarrhoea, help resist infections and assist in inflammatory conditions. Probiotics, prebiotics and synbiotics are functional foods that fortify the lactate producing microflora of the human or animal gut.

The ACTH response to dexamethasone in PTSD

Objective: Enhanced negative feedback and reduced adrenal output are two different models that have been put forth to explain the paradoxical observations of increased release of corticotropin-releasing factor in the face of low cortisol levels in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSID). To discriminate between these models, the authors measured levels of adrenocorticopic hormone (ACTH) and cortisol at baseline and in response to dexamethasone in medically healthy subjects with and without PTSID. Under conditions of enhanced negative feedback inhibition, ACTH levels would not be altered relative to cortisol levels, but the ACTH response to dexamethasone would be augmented, in concert with the enhanced cortisol response to dexamethasone. In contrast, under conditions of reduced adrenal output, ACTH levels would be expected to be higher at baseline relative to cortisol levels, but the ACTH response to dexamethasone would be unchanged in PTSID relative to healthy comparison subjects. Method: The ACTH and cortisol responses to 0.50 mg of dexamethasone were assessed in 19 subjects (15 men and four women) with PTSID and 19 subjects (14 men and five women) without psychiatric disorder. Results: The ACTH-to-cortisol ratio did not differ between groups before or after dexamethasone, but the subjects with PTSD showed greater suppression of ACTH (as well as cortisol) in response to dexamethasone. Conclusions: The data support the hypothesis of enhanced cortisol negative feedback inhibition of ACTH secretion at the level of the pituitary in PTSD. Pituitary glucocorticoid receptor binding, rather than low adrenal output, is implicated as a likely mechanism for this effect.