Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Growth and flowering of petunia and impatiens: effects of competition and reduced water content within a container

The primary objective of this research was to determine how the presence of more than one plant and more than one species in a container influence plant quality, particularly when the volume of water given to the container is reduced. Petunia xhybrida 'Hurrah White' and Impatiens 'Cajun Violet' were chosen as typical bedding plant species. Plants were grown in 2 1 containers either under "100% ETp" (i.e., replacing all the water lost by evapotranspiration in the previous 24 h) or under a moisture-restrictive regime of "25% ETp," in which plants received 25% of the "100% ETp" value. An ancillary experiment investigated whether low watering resulted in floral buds being aborted. Results demonstrated that watering requirements of Petunia under "100% ETp" (i.e., replacing all the water lost by evapotranspiration in the previous 24 h) were on average 30% greater than those of Impatiens. However, when two Petunia plants were growing in the same container, the volume of water required to maintain soil moisture content at container capacity was on average only 10% greater than for a single plant. Under a "25% ETp" regime in which plants received 25% of the "100% ETp" value, flower number, plant height, and flower size were reduced by 50%,33%, and 13%,respectively,in Petunia compared with "100% ETp." For example, flower numbers decreased from an average of 71 to 33 flowers per plant in "100% ETp" and "25% ETp," respectively. Petunia plants in the "25% ETp" regime, however, were more efficient at producing both biomass and flowers in relation to the volume of water applied. Petunia plants that experienced both competition from other plants in the container and lower irrigation rates had enhanced efficiency of flower production (i.e., more flowers per unit biomass). For Impatiens, however, the growing of single plants at "25% ETp" was plausible, but the addition of a Petunia plant at "25% ETp" was detrimental to plant quality (Impatiens flower numbers reduced by 75%).

Applying autonomic computing concepts to parallel computing using intelligent agents

The work reported in this paper is motivated by the fact that there is a need to apply autonomic computing concepts to parallel computing systems. Advancing on prior work based on intelligent cores [36], a swarm-array computing approach, this paper focuses on ‘Intelligent agents’ another swarm-array computing approach in which the task to be executed on a parallel computing core is considered as a swarm of autonomous agents. A task is carried to a computing core by carrier agents and is seamlessly transferred between cores in the event of a predicted failure, thereby achieving self-ware objectives of autonomic computing. The feasibility of the proposed swarm-array computing approach is validated on a multi-agent simulator.

Towards self-ware via swarm-array computing

The work reported in this paper proposes Swarm-Array computing, a novel technique inspired by swarm robotics, and built on the foundations of autonomic and parallel computing. The approach aims to apply autonomic computing constructs to parallel computing systems and in effect achieve the self-ware objectives that describe self-managing systems. The constitution of swarm-array computing comprising four constituents, namely the computing system, the problem/task, the swarm and the landscape is considered. Approaches that bind these constituents together are proposed. Space applications employing FPGAs are identified as a potential area for applying swarm-array computing for building reliable systems. The feasibility of a proposed approach is validated on the SeSAm multi-agent simulator and landscapes are generated using the MATLAB toolkit.

Plane wave approximation in linear elasticity

We consider the approximation of solutions of the time-harmonic linear elastic wave equation by linear combinations of plane waves. We prove algebraic orders of convergence both with respect to the dimension of the approximating space and to the diameter of the domain. The error is measured in Sobolev norms and the constants in the estimates explicitly depend on the problem wavenumber. The obtained estimates can be used in the h- and p-convergence analysis of wave-based finite element schemes.

Casimirs and Lax operators from the structure of Lie algebras

This paper uses the structure of the Lie algebras to identify the Casimir invariant functions and Lax operators for matrix Lie groups. A novel mapping is found from the cotangent space to the dual Lie algebra which enables Lax operators to be found. The coordinate equations of motion are given in terms of the structure constants and the Hamiltonian.

Potential reduction of concrete deterioration through controlled DEF in hydrated concrete

Delayed ettringite formation (DEF) is a chemical reaction with proven damaging effects on hydrated concrete. Ettringite crystals can cause cracks and their widening due to pressure on cracked walls caused by the positive volume difference in the reaction. Concrete may show improvements in strength at early ages but further growth of cracks causes widening and spreading through the concrete structure. In this study, finely dispersed crystallization nuclei achieved by adding air-entraining agent (AEA) and short vibration of specimens is presented as the main prerequisite for reducing DEF-induced deterioration of hydrated concrete. The study presents the method and mechanism for obtaining the required nucleation. Controlling long-term DEF by providing AEA-induced crystallisation nuclei, prevented excessive and rapid initial strength improvements, and resulted in a slight increase of compressive strength of fine grained concrete with only marginally lower density.

“I still can’t question”: issues affecting EFL development in an immersion environment

This study examined the development of EFL proficiency in an immersion environment. Adult Chinese speakers of English were tested at the beginning and end of a ten-month period of immersion in the UK on their acquisition of English question forms using a timed grammaticality judgement task. Participants showed significantly faster response times after ten months, but no significant difference in accuracy of target-like judgements, suggesting that immersion benefits fluency more than accuracy.

Baroclinic instability on hot extrasolar planets

We investigate baroclinic instability in flow conditions relevant to hot extrasolar planets. The instability is important for transporting and mixing heat, as well as for influencing large-scale variability on the planets. Both linear normal mode analysis and non-linear initial value cal- culations are carried out – focusing on the freely-evolving, adiabatic situation. Using a high- resolution general circulation model (GCM) which solves the traditional primitive equations, we show that large-scale jets similar to those observed in current GCM simulations of hot ex- trasolar giant planets are likely to be baroclinically unstable on a timescale of few to few tens of planetary rotations, generating cyclones and anticyclones that drive weather systems. The growth rate and scale of the most unstable mode obtained in the linear analysis are in qual- itative, good agreement with the full non-linear calculations. In general, unstable jets evolve differently depending on their signs (eastward or westward), due to the change in sign of the jet curvature. For jets located at or near the equator, instability is strong at the flanks – but not at the core. Crucially, the instability is either poorly or not at all captured in simulations with low resolution and/or high artificial viscosity. Hence, the instability has not been observed or emphasized in past circulation studies of hot extrasolar planets.