Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Le livre de messire Lancelot du Lac" : présentation matérielle et composition des manuscrits arthuriens de Jacques d'Armagnac (BNF fr. 117-120 et 113-116)

L'organisation des manuscrits arthuriens du cycle du Graal de Jacques d'Armagnac (BNF fr. 117-120 qu'il a hérité de son arrière-grand-père le duc Jean de Berry et dont il a fait retoucher les peintures et BNF fr. 113-116 qu'il a fait exécuter entre 1470 et 1475), leur agencement, leur illustration et leurs subdivisions sont un indice précieux de la conception et de la réception de ces compilations. Ils soulignent l'effort de constitution d'un ensemble romanesque cohérent centré sur la figure de Lancelot.