Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3

Preferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100-year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1×CO2) and in the second simulation the model is forced with doubled CO2 concentration (2×CO2). Daily winter (December-January-February) surface pressures over the Northern Hemisphere are analysed. The identification of preferred patterns is addressed using multivariate mixture models. For the control simulation, two significant flow regimes are obtained at 5% and 2.5% significance levels within the state space spanned by the leading two principal components. They show a high pressure centre over the North Pacific/Aleutian Islands associated with a low pressure centre over the North Atlantic, and its reverse. For the 2×CO2 simulation, no such behaviour is obtained. At higher-dimensional state space, flow patterns are obtained from both simulations. They are found to be significant at the 1% level for the control simulation and at the 2.5% level for the 2×CO2 simulation. Hence under CO2 doubling, regime behaviour in the large-scale wave dynamics weakens. Doubling greenhouse gas concentration affects both the frequency of occurrence of regimes and also the pattern structures. The less frequent regime becomes amplified and the more frequent regime weakens. The largest change is observed over the Pacific where a significant deepening of the Aleutian low is obtained under CO2 doubling.

Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment

Several aspects of terrestrial ecosystems are known to be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through effects of the NAO on winter climate, but recently the winter NAO has also been shown to be correlated with the following summer climate, including drought. Since drought is a major factor determining grassland primary productivity, the hypothesis was tested that the winter NAO is associated with summer herbage growth through soil moisture availability, using data from the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted, UK between 1960 and 1999. The herbage growth rate, mean daily rainfall, mean daily potential evapotranspiration (PE) and the mean and maximum potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) were calculated between the two annual cuts in early summer and autumn for the unlimed, unfertilized plots. Mean and maximum PSMD were more highly correlated than rainfall or PE with herbage growth rate. Regression analysis showed that the natural logarithm of the herbage growth rate approximately halved for a 250 mm increase in maximum PSMD over the range 50-485 mm. The maximum PSMD was moderately correlated with the preceding winter NAO, with a positive winter NAO index associated with greater maximum PSMD. A positive winter NAO index was also associated with low herbage growth rate, accounting for 22% of the interannual variation in the growth rate. It was concluded that the association between the winter NAO and summer herbage growth rate is mediated by the PSMD in summer.

Electrochemical deposition of praseodymium oxide on tin-doped indium oxide as a thin sensing film

Fabrication of a thin praseodymium oxide film is of great technological interest in sensor, semiconducting, and ceramic industries. It is shown for the first time that an ultrathin layer of praseodymium oxide can be deposited on tin-doped indium oxide surface (ITO) by applying a negative sweeping voltage (cathodic electrodeposition) to the aqueous solution containing Pr(NO3)(3) and H2O2 using cyclic voltammetry, followed by annealing the film at 500 S C for 1 h. X-ray diffraction suggested that the predominant phase of the film is Pr6O11 and atomic force microscopy and scanning electron microscopy characterizations indicated that this film is assembled with a monolayer coverage of spherical praseodymium oxide nanoparticles packed closely on the ITO surface. AC impedance measurements of the thin Pr6O11 film on ITO also revealed that the composite material displays a much higher electrical conductivity compared to the pure ITO. As a result, the material could suitably be used as a new chemical sensor. (c) 2006 The Electrochemical Society.

Hammerstein model identification algorithm using Bezier-Bernstein approximation

A new identification algorithm is introduced for the Hammerstein model consisting of a nonlinear static function followed by a linear dynamical model. The nonlinear static function is characterised by using the Bezier-Bernstein approximation. The identification method is based on a hybrid scheme including the applications of the inverse of de Casteljau's algorithm, the least squares algorithm and the Gauss-Newton algorithm subject to constraints. The related work and the extension of the proposed algorithm to multi-input multi-output systems are discussed. Numerical examples including systems with some hard nonlinearities are used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach through comparisons with other approaches.

Nutritional biomarkers for objective dietary assessment

The accurate assessment of dietary exposure is important in investigating associations between diet and disease. Research in nutritional epidemiology, which has resulted in a large amount of information on associations between diet and chronic diseases in the last decade, relies on accurate assessment methods to identify these associations. However, most dietary assessment instruments rely to some extent on self-reporting, which is prone to systematic bias affected by factors such as age, gender, social desirability and approval. Nutritional biomarkers are not affected by these and therefore provide an additional, alternative method to estimate intake. However, there are also some limitations in their application: they are affected by inter-individual variations in metabolism and other physiological factors, and they are often limited to estimating intake of specific compounds and not entire foods. It is therefore important to validate nutritional biomarkers to determine specific strengths and limitations. In this perspective paper, criteria for the validation of nutritional markers and future developments are discussed.

Quantitative analysis of mannitol polymorphs: X-ray powder diffractometry—exploring preferred orientation effects

Mannitol is a polymorphic pharmaceutical excipient, which commonly exists in three forms: alpha, beta and delta. Each polymorph has a needle-like morphology, which can give preferred orientation effects when analysed by X-ray powder diffractometry (XRPD) thus providing difficulties for quantitative XRPD assessments. The occurrence of preferred orientation may be demonstrated by sample rotation and the consequent effects on X-ray data can be minimised by reducing the particle size. Using two particle size ranges (less than 125 and 125–500�microns), binary mixtures of beta and delta mannitol were prepared and the delta component was quantified. Samples were assayed in either a static or rotating sampling accessory. Rotation and reducing the particle size range to less than�125 microns halved the limits of detection and quantitation to 1 and 3.6%, respectively. Numerous potential sources of assay errors were investigated; sample packing and mixing errors contributed the greatest source of variation. However, the rotation of samples for both particle size ranges reduced the majority of assay errors examined. This study shows that coupling sample rotation with a particle size reduction minimises preferred orientation effects on assay accuracy, allowing discrimination of two very similar polymorphs at around the 1% level

Shackle on time, uncertainty and process

This paper is intended both as a contribution to the conceptual work on process in economic thought and as an attempt to connect a non-institutionalist, non-evolutionary thinker to it. The paper has two principal objectives: (i) to delineate a broad, philosophically grounded conception of what an economic process theory (EPT) is; and (ii) to locate the contributions of George Shackle within this broad conception of EPT. In pursuing these two objectives, I hope to draw out the originality and significance of Shackle’s economics with a particular emphasis on what he adds to process conceptions developed within other heterodox traditions such as institutional and evolutionary economics. I will also highlight some of the perceived limitations of Shackle’s approach and link them to the limitations of process philosophy.

A trophic cascade induced by predatory ants in a fig-fig wasp mutualism

Summary 1. A trophic cascade occurs when predators directly decrease the densities, or change the behaviour, of herbivores and thus indirectly increase plant productivity. The predator–herbivore– plant context is well known, but some predators attack species beneficial to plants (e.g. pollinators) and/or enemies of herbivores (e.g. parasites), and their role in the dynamics of mutualisms remains largely unexplored. 2. We surveyed the predatory ant species and studied predation by the dominant ant species, the weaver ant Oecophylla smaragdina, associated with the fig tree Ficus racemosa in southwest China. We then tested the effects of weaver ants on the oviposition behaviour of pollinating and non-pollinating fig wasps in an ant-exclusion experiment. The effects of weaver ants on fig wasp community structure and fig seed production were then compared between trees with and without O. smaragdina. 3. Oecophylla smaragdina captured more non-pollinating wasps (Platyneura mayri) than pollinators as the insects arrived to lay eggs. When ants were excluded, more non-pollinators laid eggs into figs and fewer pollinators entered figs. Furthermore, trees with O. smaragdina produced more pollinator offspring and fewer non-pollinator offspring, shifting the community structure significantly. In addition, F. racemosa produced significantly more seeds on trees inhabited by weaver ants. 4. Oecophylla smaragdina predation reverses the dominance of the two commonest wasp species at the egg-laying stage and favours the pollinators. This behavioural pattern is mirrored by wasp offspring production, with pollinators’ offspring dominating figs produced by trees inhabited by weaver ants, and offspring of the non-pollinator P. mayri most abundant in figs on trees inhabited by other ants. 5. Overall, our results suggest that predation by weaver ants limits the success of the non-pollinating P. mayri and therefore indirectly benefits the mutualism by increasing the reproductive success of both the pollinators and the plant. Predation is thus a key functional factor that can shape the community structure of a pollinator-plant mutualistic system. Key-words: competitive release, fig wasp, mutualism, predation, predator-exclusion experiment, trophic cascade