Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?

Recent analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the stratosphere and troposphere has suggested that predictability of the state of the tropospheric AO may be obtained from the state of the stratospheric AO. However, much of this research has been of a purely qualitative nature. We present a more thorough statistical analysis of a long AO amplitude dataset which seeks to establish the magnitude of such a link. A relationship between the AO in the lower stratosphere and on the 1000 hPa surface on a 10-45 day time-scale is revealed. The relationship accounts for 5% of the variance of the 1000 hPa time series at its peak value and is significant at the 5% level. Over a similar time-scale the 1000 hPa time series accounts for 1% of itself and is not significant at the 5% level. Further investigation of the relationship reveals that it is only present during the winter season and in particular during February and March. It is also demonstrated that using stratospheric AO amplitude data as a predictor in a simple statistical model results in a gain of skill of 5% over a troposphere-only statistical model. This gain in skill is not repeated if an unrelated time series is included as a predictor in the model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

A mechanistic study of cyclic siloxane pyrolyses at low pressures

Matrix isolation IR spectroscopy has been used to study the vacuum pyrolysis of hexamethylcyclotrisiloxane (D3), octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4) and decamethyl cyclopentasiloxane (D5), and the results interpreted in the context of various kinetic models. In particular, it is shown that the significant pyrolysis products - which include CH3, CH4, C2H2, C2H4, C2H6 and SiO - may be satisfactorily accounted for by radical reactions involving dimethylsiloxane (D1), and estimates are made of the various chain lengths for the proposed reactions based on a range of ambient conditions.

Incorporation of cis-9,trans-11 or trans-10,cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid into plasma and cellular lipids in healthy men

This study investigated the incorporation of cis-9,trans-11 conjugated linoleic acid (c9,t11 CLA) and trans-10,cis-12-CLA (t10,c12 CLA) into plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) lipids when consumed as supplements highly enriched in these isomers. Healthy men (n = 49, age 31 +/- 8 years) consumed one, two, and four capsules containing similar to600 mg of either c9,t11 CIA or t10,c12 CLA per capsule for sequential 8 week periods followed by a 6 week washout before consuming the alternative isomer. Both isomers were incorporated in a dosedependent manner into plasma phosphatidylcholine (PC) (c9,t11 CLA r = 0.779, t10,c12 CLA r = 0.738; P < 0.0001) and cholesteryl ester (CE) (c9,t11 CLA r = 0.706, t10,c12 CLA r = 0.788; P < 0.0001). Only t10,c12 CLA was enriched in plasma nonesterified fatty acids. Both c9,t11 CIA and t10,c12 CLA were incorporated linearly into PBMC total lipids (r = 0.285 and r = 0.273, respectively; P < 0.0005). The highest concentrations of c9,t11 CLA and t10,c12 CLA in PBMC lipids were 3- to 4-fold lower than those in plasma PC and CE. These data suggest that the level of intake is a major determinant of plasma and PBMC CLA content, although PBMCs appear to incorporate both CLA isomers less readily.

Incorporation of cis-9,trans-11 or trans-10,cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid into plasma and cellular lipids in healthy men

This study investigated the incorporation of cis-9,trans-11 conjugated linoleic acid (c9,t11 CLA) and trans-10,cis-12-CLA (t10,c12 CLA) into plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) lipids when consumed as supplements highly enriched in these isomers. Healthy men (n = 49, age 31 +/- 8 years) consumed one, two, and four capsules containing similar to600 mg of either c9,t11 CIA or t10,c12 CLA per capsule for sequential 8 week periods followed by a 6 week washout before consuming the alternative isomer. Both isomers were incorporated in a dosedependent manner into plasma phosphatidylcholine (PC) (c9,t11 CLA r = 0.779, t10,c12 CLA r = 0.738; P < 0.0001) and cholesteryl ester (CE) (c9,t11 CLA r = 0.706, t10,c12 CLA r = 0.788; P < 0.0001). Only t10,c12 CLA was enriched in plasma nonesterified fatty acids. Both c9,t11 CIA and t10,c12 CLA were incorporated linearly into PBMC total lipids (r = 0.285 and r = 0.273, respectively; P < 0.0005). The highest concentrations of c9,t11 CLA and t10,c12 CLA in PBMC lipids were 3- to 4-fold lower than those in plasma PC and CE. These data suggest that the level of intake is a major determinant of plasma and PBMC CLA content, although PBMCs appear to incorporate both CLA isomers less readily.

A 45 kyr palaeoclimate record from the lowland interior of tropical South America

We present a well-dated, high-resolution, ~ 45 kyr lake sediment record reflecting regional temperature and precipitation change in the continental interior of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics of South America. The study site is Laguna La Gaiba (LLG), a large lake (95 km2) hydrologically-linked to the Pantanal, an immense, seasonally-flooded basin and the world's largest tropical wetland (135,000 km2). Lake-level changes at LLG are therefore reflective of regional precipitation. We infer past fluctuations in precipitation at this site through changes in: i) pollen-inferred extent of flood-tolerant forest; ii) relative abundance of terra firme humid tropical forest versus seasonally-dry tropical forest pollen types; and iii) proportions of deep- versus shallow-water diatoms. A probabilistic model, based on plant family and genus climatic optima, was used to generate quantitative estimates of past temperature from the fossil pollen data. Our temperature reconstruction demonstrates rising temperature (by 4 °C) at 19.5 kyr BP, synchronous with the onset of deglacial warming in the central Andes, strengthening the evidence that climatic warming in the SH tropics preceded deglacial warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) by at least 5 kyr. We provide unequivocal evidence that the climate at LLG was markedly drier during the last glacial period (45.0–12.2 kyr BP) than during the Holocene, contrasting with SH tropical Andean and Atlantic records that demonstrate a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon during the global Last Glacial Maximum (~ 21 kyr BP), in tune with the ~ 20 kyr precession orbital cycle. Holocene climate conditions occurred as early as 12.8–12.2 kyr BP, when increased precipitation in the Pantanal catchment caused heightened flooding and rising lake levels in LLG. In contrast to this strong geographic variation in LGM precipitation across the continent, expansion of tropical dry forest between 10 and 3 kyr BP at LLG strengthens the body of evidence for widespread early–mid Holocene drought across tropical South America.

A thermoreversible supramolecular polyurethane with excellent healing ability at 45 °C

We report the synthesis and characterization of a healable, elastomeric shape recovery supramolecular polyurethane whose properties result from self-complementary π−π stacking and hydrogen bonding interactions plus phase separation. ESEM analysis and photographic images have revealed that this material can heal at 45 °C in 15 min to recover the mechanical properties of the pristine material with healing efficiencies >99%. This supramolecular polyurethane is also able to recover an applied strain of 25% within 5 min of release of the load.