Calibration of uncertain flood inundation models using remotely sensed water levels

A traditional method of validating the performance of a flood model when remotely sensed data of the flood extent are available is to compare the predicted flood extent to that observed. The performance measure employed often uses areal pattern-matching to assess the degree to which the two extents overlap. Recently, remote sensing of flood extents using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and airborne scanning laser altimetry (LIDAR) has made more straightforward the synoptic measurement of water surface elevations along flood waterlines, and this has emphasised the possibility of using alternative performance measures based on height. This paper considers the advantages that can accrue from using a performance measure based on waterline elevations rather than one based on areal patterns of wet and dry pixels. The two measures were compared for their ability to estimate flood inundation uncertainty maps from a set of model runs carried out to span the acceptable model parameter range in a GLUE-based analysis. A 1 in 5-year flood on the Thames in 1992 was used as a test event. As is typical for UK floods, only a single SAR image of observed flood extent was available for model calibration and validation. A simple implementation of a two-dimensional flood model (LISFLOOD-FP) was used to generate model flood extents for comparison with that observed. The performance measure based on height differences of corresponding points along the observed and modelled waterlines was found to be significantly more sensitive to the channel friction parameter than the measure based on areal patterns of flood extent. The former was able to restrict the parameter range of acceptable model runs and hence reduce the number of runs necessary to generate an inundation uncertainty map. A result of this was that there was less uncertainty in the final flood risk map. The uncertainty analysis included the effects of uncertainties in the observed flood extent as well as in model parameters. The height-based measure was found to be more sensitive when increased heighting accuracy was achieved by requiring that observed waterline heights varied slowly along the reach. The technique allows for the decomposition of the reach into sections, with different effective channel friction parameters used in different sections, which in this case resulted in lower r.m.s. height differences between observed and modelled waterlines than those achieved by runs using a single friction parameter for the whole reach. However, a validation of the modelled inundation uncertainty using the calibration event showed a significant difference between the uncertainty map and the observed flood extent. While this was true for both measures, the difference was especially significant for the height-based one. This is likely to be due to the conceptually simple flood inundation model and the coarse application resolution employed in this case. The increased sensitivity of the height-based measure may lead to an increased onus being placed on the model developer in the production of a valid model

Fungicide resistance: the dose rate debate

It makes economic sense to use as little fungicide as possible on a crop. In many settings, it is common to apply less than the manufacturer's recommended dose. If sources of disease are scarce, or conditions are unsuitable for it to increase, the reduced control from a low dose may be adequate. In other cases, a big reduction in dose may cause little reduction in control, again permitting savings - especially for growers prepared to run a little risk. But the label recommendations for most fungicides state that to avoid resistance, a full dose must always be used. Are individual cost-savings therefore endangering everyone's access to an exceptionally useful tool? The emergence of fungicide resistance is evolution in action. In all cases, it involves the genetic replacement of the original susceptible population of the pathogen by a new population with genetically distinct biochemistry, which confers resistance. The resistant biochemistry originates in rare genetic mutations, so rare that initially the population is hardly altered. Replacement of susceptible forms by resistant ones happens because, with fungicide present, the resistant form multiplies more rapidly than the susceptible form. The key point to notice is that only the relative rates of multiplication of the resistant and susceptible types are involved in the evolution of resistance. The absolute rates are irrelevant.

Differences in the activity of the muscles in the forearm of individuals with a congenital absence of the hand

The spectral content of the myoelectric signals from the muscles of the remnant forearms of three persons with congenital absences (CA) of their forearms was compared with signals from their intact contra-lateral limbs, similar muscles in three persons with acquired losses (AL) and seven persons without absences [no loss (NL)]. The observed bandwidth for the CA subjects was broader with peak energy between 200 and 300 Hz. While the signals from the contra-lateral limbs and the AL and NL subjects was in the 100-150 Hz range: The mean skew of the signals from the AL subjects was 46.3 +/- 6.7 and those with NL of 45.4 +/- 8.7, while the signals from those with CAs had a skew of 11.0 +/- 11. The structure of the muscles of one CA subject was observed ultrasonically. The muscle showed greater disruption than normally developed muscles. It is speculated that the myographic signal reflects the structure of the muscle. which has developed in a more disorganized manner as a result of the muscle not being stretched by other muscles across the missing distal joint, even in the muscles that are used regularly to control arm prostheses.

Nuclear Dbf2-related protein kinases (NDRs) in isolated cardiac myocytes and the myocardium: activation by cellular stresses and by phosphoprotein serine-/threonine-phosphatase inhibitors

The nuclear Dbf2-related protein kinases 1 and 2 (NDR1/2) are closely-related AGC family kinases that are strongly conserved through evolution. In mammals, they are activated inter alia by phosphorylation of an hydrophobic domain threonine-residue [NDR1(Thr-444)/NDR2(Thr-442)] by an extrinsic protein kinase followed by autophosphorylation of a catalytic domain serine-residue [NDR1(Ser-281)/NDR2(Ser-282)]. We examined NDR1/2 expression and regulation in primary cultures of neonatal rat cardiac myocytes and in perfused adult rat hearts. In myocytes, transcripts for NDR2, but not NDR1, were induced by the hypertrophic agonist, endothelin-1. NDR1(Thr-444) and NDR2(Thr-442) were rapidly phosphorylated (maximal in 15-30 min) in myocytes exposed to some phosphoprotein Ser-/Thr-phosphatase 1/2 inhibitors (calyculin A, okadaic acid) and, to a lesser extent, by hyperosmotic shock, low concentrations of H(2)O(2), or chelerythrine. In myocytes adenovirally-transduced to express FLAG-NDR2 (which exhibited a mainly-cytoplasmic localisation), the same agents increased FLAG-NDR2 activity as assessed by in vitro protein kinase assays, indicative of FLAG-NDR2(Ser-282/Thr-442) phosphorylation. Calyculin A-induced phosphorylation of NDR1(Thr-444)/NDR2(Thr-442) and activation of FLAG-NDR2 were inhibited by staurosporine, but not by other protein kinase inhibitors tested. In ex vivo rat hearts, NDR1(Thr-444)/NDR2(Thr-442) were phosphorylated in response to ischaemia-reperfusion or calyculin A. From a pathological viewpoint, we conclude that activities of NDR1 and NDR2 are responsive to cytotoxic stresses in heart preparations and this may represent a previously-unidentified response to myocardial ischaemia in vivo.

Grey-box radial basis function modelling

A fundamental principle in data modelling is to incorporate available a priori information regarding the underlying data generating mechanism into the modelling process. We adopt this principle and consider grey-box radial basis function (RBF) modelling capable of incorporating prior knowledge. Specifically, we show how to explicitly incorporate the two types of prior knowledge: (i) the underlying data generating mechanism exhibits known symmetric property, and (ii) the underlying process obeys a set of given boundary value constraints. The class of efficient orthogonal least squares regression algorithms can readily be applied without any modification to construct parsimonious grey-box RBF models with enhanced generalisation capability.

Policy interventions to promote healthy eating: a review of what works, what does not and what is promising

Unhealthy diets can lead to various diseases, which in turn can translate into a bigger burden for the state in the form of health services and lost production. Obesity alone has enormous costs and claims thousands of lives every year. Although diet quality in the European Union has improved across countries, it still falls well short of conformity with the World Health Organization dietary guidelines. In this review, we classify types of policy interventions addressing healthy eating and identify through a literature review what specific policy interventions are better suited to improve diets. Policy interventions are classified into two broad categories: information measures and measures targeting the market environment. Using this classification, we summarize a number of previous systematic reviews, academic papers, and institutional reports and draw some conclusions about their effectiveness. Of the information measures, policy interventions aimed at reducing or banning unhealthy food advertisements generally have had a weak positive effect on improving diets, while public information campaigns have been successful in raising awareness of unhealthy eating but have failed to translate the message into action. Nutritional labeling allows for informed choice. However, informed choice is not necessarily healthier; knowing or being able to read and interpret nutritional labeling on food purchased does not necessarily result in consumption of healthier foods. Interventions targeting the market environment, such as fiscal measures and nutrient, food, and diet standards, are rarer and generally more effective, though more intrusive. Overall, we conclude that measures to support informed choice have a mixed and limited record of success. On the other hand, measures to target the market environment are more intrusive but may be more effective.

Implementation of a new urban energy budget scheme in the MetUM. Part I: Description and idealized simulations

This paper describes the formulation of a new urban scheme, MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme) for use in the Met Office Unified Model. The implementation of the new scheme ensures that (1) the new scheme offers more flexibility in the parametrization of the building properties, and hence provides a more realistic representation of the fluxes; (2) the bulk outputs are in satisfactory agreement with previous observational studies; and (3) the impact of the new scheme on the energy balance fluxes is similar to the impact of the current urban scheme when set up to mimic it. As well as having a better physical basis, MORUSES also gains in flexibility in applications and adaptations to different urban materials as well as urban planning. The new scheme represents the urban area as a composition of two tiles, a canyon and a roof, using a simple 2D geometry. Sensitivity analysis to canyon geometry and thickness of the roof canopy emphasizes the gain in flexibility captured by the new scheme. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright