Integrating socio-economics and ecology: a taxonomy of quantitative methods and a review of their use in agro-ecology

Answering many of the critical questions in conservation, development and environmental management requires integrating the social and natural sciences. However, understanding the array of available quantitative methods and their associated terminology presents a major barrier to successful collaboration. We provide an overview of quantitative socio-economic methods that distils their complexity into a simple taxonomy. We outline how each has been used in conjunction with ecological models to address questions relating to the management of socio-ecological systems. We review the application of social and ecological quantitative concepts to agro-ecology and classify the approaches used to integrate the two disciplines. Our review included all published integrated models from 2003 to 2008 in 27 journals that publish agricultural modelling research. Although our focus is on agro-ecology, many of the results are broadly applicable to other fields involving an interaction between human activities and ecology. We found 36 papers that integrated social and ecological concepts in a quantitative model. Four different approaches to integration were used, depending on the scale at which human welfare was quantified. Most models viewed humans as pure profit maximizers, both when calculating welfare and predicting behaviour. Synthesis and applications. We reached two main conclusions based on our taxonomy and review. The first is that quantitative methods that extend predictions of behaviour and measurements of welfare beyond a simple market value basis are underutilized by integrated models. The second is that the accuracy of prediction for integrated models remains largely unquantified. Addressing both problems requires researchers to reach a common understanding of modelling goals and data requirements during the early stages of a project.

A mathematical approach to chemical equilibrium theory for gaseous systems—II: extensions and applications

Straightforward mathematical techniques are used innovatively to form a coherent theoretical system to deal with chemical equilibrium problems. For a systematic theory it is necessary to establish a system to connect different concepts. This paper shows the usefulness and consistence of the system by applications of the theorems introduced previously. Some theorems are shown somewhat unexpectedly to be mathematically correlated and relationships are obtained in a coherent manner. It has been shown that theorem 1 plays an important part in interconnecting most of the theorems. The usefulness of theorem 2 is illustrated by proving it to be consistent with theorem 3. A set of uniform mathematical expressions are associated with theorem 3. A variety of mathematical techniques based on theorems 1–3 are shown to establish the direction of equilibrium shift. The equilibrium properties expressed in initial and equilibrium conditions are shown to be connected via theorem 5. Theorem 6 is connected with theorem 4 through the mathematical representation of theorem 1.

Using bargaining-game theory for negotiating concession period for BOT-type contract

This paper extends the build-operate-transfer (BOT) concession model (BOTCcM) to a new method for identifying a concession period by using bargaining-game theory. Concession period is one of the most important decision variables in arranging a BOT-type contract, and there are few methodologies available for helping to determine the value of this variable. The BOTCcM presents an alternative method by which a group of concession period solutions are produced. Nevertheless, a typical weakness in using BOTCcM is that the model cannot recommend a specific time span for concessionary. This paper introduces a new method called BOT bargaining concession model (BOTBaC) to enable the identification of a specific concession period, which takes into account the bargaining behavior of the two parties concerned in engaging a BOT contract, namely, the investor and the government concerned. The application of BOTBaC is demonstrated through using an example case.

A mathematical approach to chemical equilibrium theory for gaseous systems—I: theory

Equilibrium theory occupies an important position in chemistry and it is traditionally based on thermodynamics. A novel mathematical approach to chemical equilibrium theory for gaseous systems at constant temperature and pressure is developed. Six theorems are presented logically which illustrate the power of mathematics to explain chemical observations and these are combined logically to create a coherent system. This mathematical treatment provides more insight into chemical equilibrium and creates more tools that can be used to investigate complex situations. Although some of the issues covered have previously been given in the literature, new mathematical representations are provided. Compared to traditional treatments, the new approach relies on straightforward mathematics and less on thermodynamics, thus, giving a new and complementary perspective on equilibrium theory. It provides a new theoretical basis for a thorough and deep presentation of traditional chemical equilibrium. This work demonstrates that new research in a traditional field such as equilibrium theory, generally thought to have been completed many years ago, can still offer new insights and that more efficient ways to present the contents can be established. The work presented here can be considered appropriate as part of a mathematical chemistry course at University level.

On mathematical and physical principles of transformations of the coherent radar backscatter matrix

The congruential rule advanced by Graves for polarization basis transformation of the radar backscatter matrix is now often misinterpreted as an example of consimilarity transformation. However, consimilarity transformations imply a physically unrealistic antilinear time-reversal operation. This is just one of the approaches found in literature to the description of transformations where the role of conjugation has been misunderstood. In this paper, the different approaches are examined in particular in respect to the role of conjugation. In order to justify and correctly derive the congruential rule for polarization basis transformation and properly place the role of conjugation, the origin of the problem is traced back to the derivation of the antenna height from the transmitted field. In fact, careful consideration of the role played by the Green’s dyadic operator relating the antenna height to the transmitted field shows that, under general unitary basis transformation, it is not justified to assume a scalar relationship between them. Invariance of the voltage equation shows that antenna states and wave states must in fact lie in dual spaces, a distinction not captured in conventional Jones vector formalism. Introducing spinor formalism, and with the use of an alternate spin frame for the transmitted field a mathematically consistent implementation of the directional wave formalism is obtained. Examples are given comparing the wider generality of the congruential rule in both active and passive transformations with the consimilarity rule.

The medieval papacy and holy war: General crusading letters and papal authority, 1145-1213

Chapter in an edited collection on the twelfth-century papacy and its authorisation of crusades to the Near East.

Real options and game theoretical approaches to real estate development projects: multiple equilibria and the implications of different tie-breaking rules

This paper contributes to a fast growing literature which introduces game theory in the analysis of real option investments in a competitive setting. Specifically, in this paper we focus on the issue of multiple equilibria and on the implications that different equilibrium selections may have for the pricing of real options and for subsequent strategic decisions. We present some theoretical results of the necessary conditions to have multiple equilibria and we show under which conditions different tie-breaking rules result in different economic decisions. We then present a numerical exercise using the in formation set obtained on a real estate development in South London. We find that risk aversion reduces option value and this reduction decreases marginally as negative externalities decrease.

Markov models of aging: theory and practice

We review and structure some of the mathematical and statistical models that have been developed over the past half century to grapple with theoretical and experimental questions about the stochastic development of aging over the life course. We suggest that the mathematical models are in large part addressing the problem of partitioning the randomness in aging: How does aging vary between individuals, and within an individual over the lifecourse? How much of the variation is inherently related to some qualities of the individual, and how much is entirely random? How much of the randomness is cumulative, and how much is merely short-term flutter? We propose that recent lines of statistical inquiry in survival analysis could usefully grapple with these questions, all the more so if they were more explicitly linked to the relevant mathematical and biological models of aging. To this end, we describe points of contact among the various lines of mathematical and statistical research. We suggest some directions for future work, including the exploration of information-theoretic measures for evaluating components of stochastic models as the basis for analyzing experiments and anchoring theoretical discussions of aging.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. I: Mathematical basis

It is shown that Bretherton's view of baroclinic instability as the interaction of two counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs) can be extended to a general zonal flow and to a general dynamical system based on material conservation of potential vorticity (PV). The two CRWs have zero tilt with both altitude and latitude and are constructed from a pair of growing and decaying normal modes. One CRW has generally large amplitude in regions of positive meridional PV gradient and propagates westwards relative to the flow in such regions. Conversely, the other CRW has large amplitude in regions of negative PV gradient and propagates eastward relative to the zonal flow there. Two methods of construction are described. In the first, more heuristic, method a ‘home-base’ is chosen for each CRW and the other CRW is defined to have zero PV there. Consideration of the PV equation at the two home-bases gives ‘CRW equations’ quantifying the evolution of the amplitudes and phases of both CRWs. They involve only three coefficients describing the mutual interaction of the waves and their self-propagation speeds. These coefficients relate to PV anomalies formed by meridional fluid displacements and the wind induced by these anomalies at the home-bases. In the second method, the CRWs are defined by orthogonality constraints with respect to wave activity and energy growth, avoiding the subjective choice of home-bases. Using these constraints, the same form of CRW equations are obtained from global integrals of the PV equation, but the three coefficients are global integrals that are not so readily described by ‘PV-thinking’ arguments. Each CRW could not continue to exist alone, but together they can describe the time development of any flow whose initial conditions can be described by the pair of growing and decaying normal modes, including the possibility of a super-modal growth rate for a short period. A phase-locking configuration (and normal-mode growth) is possible only if the PV gradient takes opposite signs and the mean zonal wind and the PV gradient are positively correlated in the two distinct regions where the wave activity of each CRW is concentrated. These are easily interpreted local versions of the integral conditions for instability given by Charney and Stern and by Fjørtoft.

Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast: group 1-quantitative analyses which predict that global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020; group 2-forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast's time horizon (typically 2020 or 2030); group 3-nonquantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future. The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Quantitative plant proteomics

Quantitation is an inherent requirement in comparative proteomics and there is no exception to this for plant proteomics. Quantitative proteomics has high demands on the experimental workflow, requiring a thorough design and often a complex multi-step structure. It has to include sufficient numbers of biological and technical replicates and methods that are able to facilitate a quantitative signal read-out. Quantitative plant proteomics in particular poses many additional challenges but because of the nature of plants it also offers some potential advantages. In general, analysis of plants has been less prominent in proteomics. Low protein concentration, difficulties in protein extraction, genome multiploidy, high Rubisco abundance in green tissue, and an absence of well-annotated and completed genome sequences are some of the main challenges in plant proteomics. However, the latter is now changing with several genomes emerging for model plants and crops such as potato, tomato, soybean, rice, maize and barley. This review discusses the current status in quantitative plant proteomics (MS-based and non-MS-based) and its challenges and potentials. Both relative and absolute quantitation methods in plant proteomics from DIGE to MS-based analysis after isotope labeling and label-free quantitation are described and illustrated by published studies. In particular, we describe plant-specific quantitative methods such as metabolic labeling methods that can take full advantage of plant metabolism and culture practices, and discuss other potential advantages and challenges that may arise from the unique properties of plants.