A high-wavenumber boundary-element method for an acoustic scattering problem

In this paper we show stability and convergence for a novel Galerkin boundary element method approach to the impedance boundary value problem for the Helmholtz equation in a half-plane with piecewise constant boundary data. This problem models, for example, outdoor sound propagation over inhomogeneous flat terrain. To achieve a good approximation with a relatively low number of degrees of freedom we employ a graded mesh with smaller elements adjacent to discontinuities in impedance, and a special set of basis functions for the Galerkin method so that, on each element, the approximation space consists of polynomials (of degree $\nu$) multiplied by traces of plane waves on the boundary. In the case where the impedance is constant outside an interval $[a,b]$, which only requires the discretization of $[a,b]$, we show theoretically and experimentally that the $L_2$ error in computing the acoustic field on $[a,b]$ is ${\cal O}(\log^{\nu+3/2}|k(b-a)| M^{-(\nu+1)})$, where $M$ is the number of degrees of freedom and $k$ is the wavenumber. This indicates that the proposed method is especially commendable for large intervals or a high wavenumber. In a final section we sketch how the same methodology extends to more general scattering problems.

Multi-mode approximations to wave scattering by an uneven bed

Approximations to the scattering of linear surface gravity waves on water of varying quiescent depth are Investigated by means of a variational approach. Previous authors have used wave modes associated with the constant depth case to approximate the velocity potential, leading to a system of coupled differential equations. Here it is shown that a transformation of the dependent variables results in a much simplified differential equation system which in turn leads to a new multi-mode 'mild-slope' approximation. Further, the effect of adding a bed mode is examined and clarified. A systematic analytic method is presented for evaluating inner products that arise and numerical experiments for two-dimensional scattering are used to examine the performance of the new approximations.

The zonal asymmetry of the Southern Hemisphere storm-track

Atmospheric general circulation model experiments have been performed to investigate how the significant zonal asymmetry in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter storm track is forced by sea surface temperature (SST) and orography. An experiment with zonally symmetric tropical SSTs expands the SH upper-tropospheric storm track poleward and eastward and destroys its spiral structure. Diagnosis suggests that these aspects of the observed storm track result from Rossby wave propagation from a wave source in the Indian Ocean region associated with the monsoon there. The lower-tropospheric storm track is not sensitive to this forcing. However, an experiment with zonally symmetric midlatitude SSTs exhibits a marked reduction in the magnitude of the maximum intensity of the lower-tropospheric storm track associated with reduced SST gradients in the western Indian Ocean. Experiments without the elevation of the South African Plateau or the Andes show reductions in the intensity of the major storm track downstream of them due to reduced cyclogenesis associated with the topography. These results suggest that the zonal asymmetry of the SH winter storm track is mainly established by stationary waves excited by zonal asymmetry in tropical SST in the upper troposphere and by local SST gradients in the lower troposphere, and that it is modified through cyclogenesis associated with the topography of South Africa and South America.

Two Independent Triggers for the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode in a Coupled GCM

The question of whether and how tropical Indian Ocean dipole or zonal mode (IOZM) interannual variability is independent of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the Pacific is addressed in a comparison of twin 200-yr runs of a coupled climate model. The first is a reference simulation, and the second has ENSO-scale variability suppressed with a constraint on the tropical Pacific wind stress. The IOZM can exist in the model without ENSO, and the composite evolution of the main anomalies in the Indian Ocean in the two simulations is virtually identical. Its growth depends on a positive feedback between anomalous equatorial easterly winds, upwelling equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves reducing the thermocline depth and sea surface temperature off the coast of Sumatra, and the atmospheric dynamical response to the subsequently reduced convection. Two IOZM triggers in the boreal spring are found. The first is an anomalous Hadley circulation over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, with an early northward penetration of the Southern Hemisphere southeasterly trades. This situation grows out of cooler sea surface temperatures in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean left behind by a reinforcement of the late austral summer winds. The second trigger is a consequence of a zonal shift in the center of convection associated with a developing El Nino, a Walker cell anomaly. The first trigger is the only one present in the constrained simulation and is similar to the evolution of anomalies in 1994, when the IOZM occurred in the absence of a Pacific El Nino state. The presence of these two triggers-the first independent of ENSO and the second phase locking the IOZM to El Nino-allows an understanding of both the existence of IOZM events when Pacific conditions are neutral and the significant correlation between the IOZM and El Nino.

The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model

To gain a new perspective on the interaction of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere, the relationship between the atmospheric and oceanic meridional energy transports is studied in a version of HadCM3, the U.K. Hadley Centre's coupled climate model. The correlation structure of the energy transports in the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude, and the cross correlation between the two systems are analyzed. The processes that give rise to the correlations are then elucidated using regression analyses. In northern midlatitudes, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by Ekman processes. Anticorrelated zonal winds in the subtropics and midlatitudes, particularly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), drive anticorrelated meridional Ekman transports. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with changes in the stationary waves, but is only weakly related to the NAO. Nevertheless, atmospheric driving of the oceanic Ekman transports is responsible for a bipolar pattern in the correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports. In the Tropics, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by an adjustment of the tropical ocean to coastal upwelling induced along the Venezuelan coast by a strengthening of the easterly trade winds. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with a cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation that is only weakly associated with variability in the trade winds along the Venezuelan coast. In consequence, there is only very limited correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports in the Tropics of HadCM3

The cumulus-capped boundary layer. II: Interface fluxes

This paper considers the relationship between the mean temperature and humidity profiles and the fluxes of heat and moisture at cloud base and the base of the inversion in the cumulus-capped boundary layer. The relationships derived are based on an approximate form of the scalar-flux budget and the scaling properties of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget. The scalar-flux budget gives a relationship between the change in the virtual potential temperature across either the cloud base transition zone or the inversion and the flux at the base of the layer. The scaling properties of the TKE budget lead to a relationship between the heat and moisture fluxes and the mean subsaturation through the liquid-water flux. The 'jump relation' for the virtual potential temperature at cloud base shows the close connection between the cumulus mass flux in the cumulus-capped boundary layer and the entrainment velocity in the dry-convective boundary layer. Gravity waves are shown to be an important feature of the inversion.

The formation mechanism of the Bonin high in August

The Bonin high is a subtropical anticyclone that is predominant near Japan in the summer. This anticyclone is associated with an equivalent-barotropic structure, often extending throughout the entire troposphere. Although the equivalent-barotropic structure of the Bonin high has been known for years among synopticians because of its importance to the summer climate in east Asia, there are few dynamical explanations for such a structure. The present paper attempts to provide a formation mechanism for the deep ridge near Japan. We propose a new hypothesis that this equivalent-barotropic ridge near Japan is formed as a result of the propagation of stationary Rossby waves along the Asian jet in the upper troposphere (‘the Silk Road pattern’). First, the monthly mean climatology is examined in order to demonstrate this hypothesis. It is shown that the enhanced Asian jet in August is favourable for the propagation of stationary Rossby waves and that the regions of descent over the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Aral Sea act as two major wave sources. Second, a primitive-equation model is used to simulate the climatology of August. The model successfully simulates the Bonin high with an equivalent-barotropic structure. The upper-tropospheric ridge is found to be enhanced by a height anomaly of more than 80 m at 200 hPa, when a wave packet arrives. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to show that the removal of the diabatic cooling over the Asian jet suppresses the Silk Road pattern and formation of an equivalent-barotropic ridge near Japan, while the removal of the diabatic heating in the western Pacific does not. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Testing the limits of quasi-geostrophic theory: application to observed laboratory flows outside the quasi-geostrophic regime

We compare laboratory observations of equilibrated baroclinic waves in the rotating two-layer annulus, with numerical simulations from a quasi-geostrophic model. The laboratory experiments lie well outside the quasi-geostrophic regime: the Rossby number reaches unity; the depth-to-width aspect ratio is large; and the fluid contains ageostrophic inertia–gravity waves. Despite being formally inapplicable, the quasi-geostrophic model captures the laboratory flows reasonably well. The model displays several systematic biases, which are consequences of its treatment of boundary layers and neglect of interfacial surface tension and which may be explained without invoking the dynamical effects of the moderate Rossby number, large aspect ratio or inertia–gravity waves. We conclude that quasi-geostrophic theory appears to continue to apply well outside its formal bounds.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

The social impacts of heat waves

The effects of the 2003 European heat wave have highlighted the need for society to prepare itself for and cope more effectively with heat waves. This is particularly important in the context of predicted climate change and the likelihood of more frequent extreme climate events; to date, heat as a natural hazard has been largely ignored. In order to develop better coping strategies, this report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects. The main factors of vulnerability are being elderly, living alone, having a pre-existing disease, being immobile or suffering from mental illness and being economically disadvantaged. The synergistic effects of such factors may prove fatal for some. Heat waves have discernible impacts on society including a rise in mortality, an increased strain on infrastructure (power, water and transport) and a possible rise in social disturbance. Wider impacts may include effects on the retail industry, ecosystem services and tourism. Adapting to more frequent heat waves should include soft engineering options and, where possible, avoid the widespread use of air conditioning which could prove unsustainable in energy terms. Strategies for coping with heat include changing the way in which urban areas are developed or re-developed, and setting up heat watch warning systems based around weather and seasonal climate forecasting and intervention strategies. Although heat waves have discernible effects on society, much remains unknown about their wider social impacts, diffuse health issues and how to manage them.

Atmospheric factors governing banded orographic convection

Atmospheric factors Governing Banded Orographic Convection The three-dimensional structure of shallow orographic convection is investigated through simulations performed with a cloud-resolving numerical model. In moist flows that overcome a given topographic barrier to form statically unstable cap clouds, the organization of the convection depends on both the atmospheric structure and the mechanism by which the convection is initiated. Convection initiated by background thermal fluctuations embedded in the flow over a smooth mountain (without any small-scale topographic features) tends to be cellular and disorganized except that shear-parallel bands may form in flows with strong unidirectional vertical shear. The development of well-organized bands is favored when there is weak static instability inside the cloud and when the dry air surrounding the cloud is strongly stable. These bands move with the flow and distribute their cumulative precipitation evenly over the mountain upslope. Similar shear-parallel bands also develop in flows where convection is initiated by small-scale topographic noise superimposed onto the main mountain profile, but in this case stronger circulations are also triggered that create stationary rainbands parallel to the low-level flow. This second dominant mode, which is less sensitive to the atmospheric structure and the strength of forcing, is triggered by lee waves that form over small-scale topographic bumps near the upstream edge of the main orographic cloud. Due to their stationarity, these flow-parallel bands can produce locally heavy precipitation amounts.