Nodal variations and long-term changes in the main tides on the coasts of China

The long-term changes in the main tidal constituents (O1, K1, M2, N2, and S2) along the coasts of China and in adjacent seas are investigated based on 17 tide-gauge records covering the period 1954–2012. The observed 18.61 year nodal modulations of the diurnal constituents O1 and K1 are in agreement with the equilibrium tidal theory, except in the South China Sea. The observed modulations of the M2 and N2 amplitudes are smaller than theoretically predicted at the northern stations and larger at the southern stations. The discrepancies between the theoretically predicted nodal variations and the observations are discussed. The 8.85 year perigean cycle is identifiable in the N2 parameters at most stations, except those in the South China Sea. The radiational component of S2 contributes on average 16% of the observed S2 except in the Gulf of Tonkin, on the south coast, where it accounts for up to 65%. We confirmed the existence of nodal modulation in S2, which is stronger on the north coast. The semidiurnal tidal parameters show significant secular trends in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, on the north coast, and in the Taiwan Strait. The largest increase is found for M2 for which the amplitude increases by 4–7 mm/yr in the Yellow Sea. The potential causes for the linear trends in tidal constants are discussed.

Recent lake-level and outflow variations at Lake Viljandi, Estonia: validation of a coupled lake-catchment modelling scheme for climate change studies

Changes in the depth of Lake Viljandi between 1940 and 1990 were simulated using a lake water and energy-balance model driven by standard monthly weather data. Catchment runoff was simulated using a one-dimensional hydrological model, with a two-layer soil, a single-layer snowpack, a simple representation of vegetation cover and similarly modest input requirements. Outflow was modelled as a function of lake level. The simulated record of lake level and outflow matched observations of lake-level variations (r = 0.78) and streamflow (r = 0.87) well. The ability of the model to capture both intra- and inter-annual variations in the behaviour of a specific lake, despite the relatively simple input requirements, makes it extremely suitable for investigations of the impacts of climate change on lake water balance.

Spatio-temporal variations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations under urban trees and in a nearby open area

The evergreen Quercus ilex L. is one of the most common trees in Italian urban environments and is considered effective in the uptake of particulate and gaseous atmospheric pollutants. However, the few available estimates on O3 and NO2 removal by urban Q. ilex originate from model-based studies (which indicate NO2/O3 removal capacity of Q. ilex) and not from direct measurements of air pollutant concentrations. Thus, in the urban area of Siena (central Italy) we began long-term monitoring of O3/NO2 concentrations using passive samplers at a distance of 1, 5, 10 m from a busy road, under the canopies of Q. ilex and in a nearby open-field. Measurements performed in the period June 2011-October 2013 showed always a greater decrease of NO2 concentrations under the Q. ilex canopy than in the open-field transect. Conversely, a decrease of average O3 concentrations under the tree canopy was found only in autumn after the typical Mediterranean post-summer rainfalls. Our results indicate that interactions between O3/NO2 concentrations and trees in Mediterranean urban ecosystems are affected by temporal variations in climatic conditions. We argue therefore that the direct measurement of atmospheric pollutant concentrations should be chosen to describe local changes of aerial pollution.

Palaeoenvironmental changes during the Valanginian: new insights from variations in phosphorus contents and bulk- and clay mineralogies in the western Tethys

Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic changes during the Valanginian carbon isotopic excursion (CIE) have been investigated in the western Tethys. For this purpose, bulk-rock and clay mineralogies, as well as phosphorus (P) contents were evaluated in a selection of five sections located in the Vocontian Basin (Angles, SE France; Alvier, E Switzerland; Malleval, E France), and the Lombardian Basin (Capriolo, N Italy; Breggia, S Switzerland). Within the CIE interval, bulk-rock and clay mineralogies are inferred to reflect mostly climate change. The onset of the CIE (Busnardoites campylotoxus ammonite Zone) is characterized by higher detrital index (DI: sum of the detrital minerals divided by calcite contents) values and the presence of kaolinite in their clay-mineral assemblages. In the late Valanginian (from the Saynoceras verrucosum Zone up to the end of the Valanginian), the samples show relatively variable DI and lower values or the absence of kaolinite. The variation in the mineralogical composition is interpreted as reflecting a change from a climate characterized by optimal weathering conditions associated with an increase in terrigenous input on the southern European margin during the CIE towards an overall unstable climate associated with drier conditions in the late Valanginian. This is contrasted by a dissymmetry (proximal vs distal) along the studied transect, the northern Tethyan margin being more sensitive to changes in continental input compared to the distal environments. P accumulation rates (PAR) present similar features. In the Vocontian basin, P content variations are associated with changes in terrigenous influx, whereas in the Lombardian basin (i.e. Capriolo and Breggia), PAR values are less well correlated. This is mainly because the deeper part of the Tethys was less sensitive to changes in continental inputs. The onset of the CIE (top of the B. campylotoxus Zone) records a general increase in PAR suggesting an increase in marine nutrient levels. This is linked to higher continental weathering rates and the enhanced influx of nutrients into the ocean. In the period corresponding to the shift itself, P contents show a dissymmetry between the Vocontian and Lombardian basins (proximal vs distal). For the sections of Malleval, Alvier and Angles, a decrease in P concentrations associated to a decrease in detrital input is observed. In Capriolo and Breggia, PAR show maximum values during the plateau, indicating a more complex interaction between different P sources. The time interval including the top of S. verrucosum Zone up to the end of the Valanginian is characterized by variable PAR values, suggesting variable nutrient influxes. These changes are in agreement with an evolution towards seasonally contrasted conditions in the late Valanginian.

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.

Moderate stake variations for risk and uncertainty, gains and losses: methodological implications for comparative studies

Risk attitudes are known to be sensitive to large stake variations. However, little is known on the sensitivity to moderate variations in stakes. This is important for studies that want to compare risk attitudes between countries or over time. I find that variations of ±20% affect only utility, while larger variations may affect also probability weighting. Surprisingly, the effect on weighting functions is larger for losses than for gains. It is also more pronounced for risk than for uncertainty.

Time-variations in commodity price jumps

In this paper, we study jumps in commodity prices. Unlike assumed in existing models of commodity price dynamics, a simple analysis of the data reveals that the probability of tail events is not constant but depends on the time of the year, i.e. exhibits seasonality. We propose a stochastic volatility jump–diffusion model to capture this seasonal variation. Applying the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology, we estimate our model using 20 years of futures data from four different commodity markets. We find strong statistical evidence to suggest that our model with seasonal jump intensity outperforms models featuring a constant jump intensity. To demonstrate the practical relevance of our findings, we show that our model typically improves Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts.

SPARE-ICE: synergistic Ice Water Path from passive operational sensors

This article presents SPARE-ICE, the Synergistic Passive Atmospheric Retrieval Experiment-ICE. SPARE-ICE is the first Ice Water Path (IWP) product combining infrared and microwave radiances. By using only passive operational sensors, the SPARE-ICE retrieval can be used to process data from at least the NOAA 15 to 19 and MetOp satellites, obtaining time series from 1998 onward. The retrieval is developed using collocations between passive operational sensors (solar, terrestrial infrared, microwave), the CloudSat radar, and the CALIPSO lidar. The collocations form a retrieval database matching measurements from passive sensors against the existing active combined radar-lidar product 2C-ICE. With this retrieval database, we train a pair of artificial neural networks to detect clouds and retrieve IWP. When considering solar, terrestrial infrared, and microwave-based measurements, we show that any combination of two techniques performs better than either single-technique retrieval. We choose not to include solar reflectances in SPARE-ICE, because the improvement is small, and so that SPARE-ICE can be retrieved both daytime and nighttime. The median fractional error between SPARE-ICE and 2C-ICE is around a factor 2, a figure similar to the random error between 2C-ICE ice water content (IWC) and in situ measurements. A comparison of SPARE-ICE with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Pathfinder Atmospheric Extended (PATMOS-X), and Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS) indicates that SPARE-ICE appears to perform well even in difficult conditions. SPARE-ICE is available for public use.

Exploring the effects of genotypical and phenotypical variations in bitter taste sensitivity on perception, liking and intake of brassica vegetables in the UK

Brassicaceous vegetables (BV) have chemoprotective effects and yet consumption of BV in the UK is low. Previous studies suggest perception, liking and intake of BV are influenced by bitter taste sensitivity which this study further explores. Phenotypical taste sensitivity of 136 subjects was classified using propythiouracil (PROP) and sodium chloride and fungiform papillae density (FPD) was measured from tongue images. Polymorphisms of TAS2R38 and gustin (CA6) genes were analysed. Liking and bitterness of four raw vegetables (two BV (broccoli and white cabbage) and two non-BV (spinach and courgette)), as well as habitual consumption, were evaluated. There was a significant association between TAS2R38 genotype and PROP taster status (p<0.0001) and between FPD and PROP taster status (p=0.029). Individuals with greater sensitivity for PROP predominantly had TAS2R38 PAV/PAV genotype and greater FPD. BV were perceived as more bitter than non-BV (p<0.0001) with PAV/PAV subjects perceiving significantly stronger bitter intensity. There was a significant difference in liking for the four vegetables (p=0.002), and between consumers of different TAS2R38 genotype (p=0.0024). Individuals with TAS2R38 AVI/AVI genotype liked BV more. Regarding intake, both PAV/PAV and AVI/AVI individuals consumed more total vegetables and BV than PAV/AVI. Although PROP nontasters tended to consume more vegetables and BV than the other two phenotype groups, liking and vegetable intake were not significantly affected by taste phenotype. Although there was not a significant effect of CA6 genotype on bitterness ratings, there was a significant interaction between CA6 and TAS2R38, and in addition CA6 genotype was significantly associated with BV intake. However, these effects require validation as the proportions of the population with the CA6 G/G genotype was extremely small (7%). Our results confirmed that bitter taste perception in vegetables was influenced by both genotype and phenotype of bitter taste sensitivity. Moreover, our findings demonstrated that neither genotype nor phenotype of taste sensitivity alone accurately predict vegetable liking and intake as demographic factors were found to have a substantial influence.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.