Can profitable trading strategies be derived from investment best-sellers?

A glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to ‘make a million’ or ‘beat the market’ with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. This paper investigates whether useful trading strategies can be derived from popular books of investment strategy, with What Works on Wall Street by James P. O'Shaughnessy used as an example. Specifically, we test whether this strategy would have produced a similarly spectacular performance in the UK context as was demonstrated by the author for the US market. As part of our investigation, we highlight a general methodology for determining whether the observed superior performance of a trading rule could be attributed in part or in entirety to data mining. Overall, we find that the O'Shaughnessy rule performs reasonably well in the UK equity market, yielding higher returns than the FTSE All-Share Index, but lower returns than an equally weighted benchmark

A longitudinal investigation of maternal influences on the development of child hostile attributions and aggression

Aggression in children is associated with an enhanced tendency to attribute hostile intentions to others. However, limited information is available regarding the factors that contribute to the development of such hostile attribution tendencies. We examined factors that contribute to individual differences in child hostile attributions and aggression, focusing on potential pathways from maternal hostile attributions via negative parenting behavior. We conducted a longitudinal study of 98 mothers and children (47 male, 51 female), recruited from groups experiencing high and low levels of psychosocial adversity. Maternal hostile attributions, observed parenting, and child behaviour were assessed at 18 months and 5 years child age, and child hostile attributions were also examined at 5 years. Independent assessments of maternal and child processes were utilized where possible. Analyses provided support for a direct influence of maternal hostile attributions on the development of child hostile attributions and aggressive behaviour. Maternal hostile attributions were also associated with negative parenting behaviour, which in turn influenced child adjustment. Even taking account of possible parenting influences and preexisting child difficulties, hostile attributions in the mother showed a direct link with child aggression at 5 years. Maternal hostile attributions were themselves related to psychosocial adversity. We conclude that maternal hostile attributions are prevalent in high-risk samples and are related to less optimal parenting behaviour, child hostile attributions, and child aggression. Targeting hostile maternal cognitions may be a useful adjunct to parenting programs

A longitudinal study of child sleep in high and low risk families: relationship to early maternal settling strategies and child psychological functioning

Objectives To investigate whether sleep disturbances previously found to characterise high risk infants: (a) persist into childhood; (b) are influenced by early maternal settling strategies and (c) predict cognitive and emotional/behavioural functioning. Methods Mothers experiencing high and low levels of psychosocial adversity (risk) were recruited antenatally and longitudinally assessed with their children. Mothers completed measures of settling strategies and infant sleep postnatally, and at 12 and 18 months, infant age. At five years, child sleep characteristics were measured via an actigraphy and maternal report; IQ and child adjustment were also assessed. Results Sleep disturbances observed in high-risk infants persisted at five years. Maternal involvement in infant settling was greater in high risk mothers, and predicted less optimal sleep at five years. Poorer five year sleep was associated with concurrent child anxiety/depression and aggression, but there was limited evidence for an influence of early sleep problems. Associations between infant/child sleep characteristics and IQ were also limited. Conclusions Early maternal over-involvement in infant settling is associated with less optimal sleep in children, which in turn, is related to child adjustment. The findings highlight the importance of supporting parents in the early development of good settling practices, particularly in high-risk populations.

Child anxiety and parenting in England and Italy: the moderating role of maternal warmth

BACKGROUND: Parenting factors have been implicated in the aetiology and maintenance of child anxiety. Most research has been correlational with little experimental or longitudinal work. Cross-cultural comparison could be illuminating. A comparison of Italian and British children and their mothers was conducted. METHODS: A sample of 8- to 10-year old children, 60 Italian and 49 English, completed the Spence Child Anxiety Scale. Mothers also completed two questionnaires of parenting: the Skills of Daily Living Checklist (assessing maternal autonomy granting) and the Parent-Child Interaction Questionnaire (assessing maternal intrusiveness). Parenting was assessed in two video-recorded blindly rated mother-child interaction tasks, the 'belt-buckling tasks and the 'etch-a-sketch', providing objective indices of overcontrol, warmth, lack of autonomy granting, and overprotection. RESULTS: There were no differences between the children in overall anxiety and specific forms of anxiety. Parenting, however, was markedly different for the two countries. Compared to English mothers, on the two questionnaires, Italian mothers were significantly less autonomy granting and more intrusive; and in terms of the observed indices, a significantly greater proportion of the Italian mothers displayed a high level of both overprotection and overcontrol, and a low level of autonomy granting. Notably, Italian mothers evidenced significantly more warmth than English mothers; and maternal warmth was found to moderate the impact of self-reported maternal intrusiveness on the level of both overall child anxiety and the level of child separation anxiety; and it also moderated the relationship between both observed maternal intrusiveness and overall child anxiety and observed maternal overprotectiveness and child separation anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: Although, compared to the British mothers, the Italian mothers were more likely to evidence high levels of parenting behaviours previously found to be anxiogenic, the high levels of warmth displayed by these mothers to their children appears to have neutralised the adverse impact of these behaviours.

Contributions of maternal and infant factors to infant responding to the Still Face paradigm: a longitudinal study

Early mother–infant interactions are characterised by periods of synchronous interaction that are interrupted by periods of mismatch; the experience of such mismatches and their subsequent repair is held to facilitate the development of infant self-regulatory capacities (Tronick, Als, Adamson, Wise, & Brazelton, 1978). Infant responding to such interactive challenge is assumed to be a function of both maternal behaviour and pre-existing infant characteristics. However, the latter has received relatively little attention. In a prospective longitudinal study of a sample comprising high and low adversity dyads (n = 122), we examined the contributions of both maternal sensitivity and neonatal irritability to infant behavioural and physiological responding to the interactive challenge of the Still Face paradigm. Results indicated that higher levels of maternal sensitivity were associated with more regulated infant behaviour during the Still Face paradigm. Neonatal irritability also predicted poorer behavioural and heart rate recovery following the Still Face challenge. Furthermore, there was an interaction such that irritable infants with insensitive mothers showed the worst behavioural outcomes. The findings highlight the importance of the interplay between maternal and infant characteristics in determining dyadic responding.

The effect of salmon consumption during pregnancy on maternal and infant faecal microbiota, sIgA and calprotectin

The infant gut microbiota plays an important role in the development of the infant immune and gastrointestinal systems. We investigated whether increased salmon consumption during pregnancy, maternal weight gain during pregnancy or infant mode of feeding alter markers of gut immune defence and inflammation. Women (n = 123) who rarely ate oily fish were randomly assigned to remain on their habitual diet or to consume two 150 g portions of farmed salmon per week from 20 weeks pregnancy until delivery. At 38 weeks gestation the women (n = 75) provided a faecal sample and on days 7, 14, 28 and 84 post-partum, faecal samples were collected from the infants (n = 38). Fluorescence in situ hybridisation was used to determine the composition of the faecal microbiota and ELISA to measure faecal sIgA and calprotectin concentrations. There was no effect of salmon consumption on the faecal microbiota of the mothers or on faecal sIgA and calprotectin concentrations in either mothers or infants. Degree of weight gain influenced the maternal faecal microbiota and mode of infant feeding influenced the infant faecal microbiota. Faecal samples from infants in the salmon group tended to have lower counts of Atopobium cluster compared with those in the control group (P = 0.097). This difference was significant in formula-fed infants (P < 0.05), but not exclusively breast-fed infants. In conclusion, the impact of oily fish consumption during pregnancy on maternal and infant gut microbiota composition is limited, but significant differences were associated with maternal weight gain during pregnancy and infant mode of feeding.

Measuring European property investment performance: comparing different approaches

Purpose – Price indices for commercial real estate markets are difficult to construct because assets are heterogeneous, they are spatially dispersed and they are infrequently traded. Appraisal-based indices are one response to these problems, but may understate volatility or fail to capture turning points in a timely manner. This paper estimates “transaction linked indices” for major European markets to see whether these offer a different perspective on market performance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The assessed value method is used to construct the indices. This has been recently applied to commercial real estate datasets in the USA and UK. The underlying data comprise appraisals and sale prices for assets monitored by Investment Property Databank (IPD). The indices are compared to appraisal-based series for the countries concerned for Q4 2001 to Q4 2012. Findings – Transaction linked indices show stronger growth and sharper declines over the course of the cycle, but they do not notably lead their appraisal-based counterparts. They are typically two to four times more volatile. Research limitations/implications – Only country-level indicators can be constructed in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied, and this same issue prevented sample selection bias from being analysed in depth. Originality/value – Discussion of the utility of transaction-based price indicators is extended to European commercial real estate markets. The indicators offer alternative estimates of real estate market volatility that may be useful in asset allocation and risk modelling, including in a regulatory context.

Haircut undone? The Greek drama and prospects for investment arbitration

As a result of the sovereign debt crisis that engulfed Europe in 2010, investors are much more likely to pursue dispute resolution options when faced with losses. This paper seeks to examine the position of investors who suffered losses in the Greek haircut of 2012 in the context of investment treaty arbitration. The paper evaluates arguments that investments in Greek sovereign bonds have been expropriated by the introduction of retrofit CACs and that compensation is payable as a result of the protections offered by BITs. The paper investigates whether sovereign bonds come within the definition of protected investment in BITs, assesses the degree to which CACs act as a jurisdictional bar to investor-state claims and attempts an evaluation of whether claims could be successful. The analysis uses as an illustration recent cases brought against Greece at ICSID. The paper concludes by considering whether the Greek haircut was expropriatory and reflects on the possible outcome of current arbitrations.

Rationality and momentum in real estate investment forecasts

This study examines the rationality and momentum in forecasts for rental, capital value and total returns for the real estate investment market in the United Kingdom. In order to investigate if forecasters are affected by the general economic conditions present at the time of forecast we incorporate into the analysis Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and the Default Spread (DS). The empirical findings show high levels of momentum in the forecasts, with highly persistent forecast errors. The results also indicate that forecasters are affected by adverse conditions. This is consistent with the finding that they tend to exhibit greater forecast error when the property market is underperforming and vice-versa.

Accounting for complex investment transactions

This case study exposes students to complex investment transactions. You must document the following: (1) apply the appropriate accounting literature along with its provisions and justify the order of its application; (2) identify and interpret key facts to classify the given investments and relations; (3) discuss the choice of key assumptions that are central to the analysis; (4) interpret the nature of all investment relations with Holdings; discuss all Owner level and below relations; (5) discuss how accounting for varied levels of influence impact the items reported on/off the face of investors’ financial statements; (6) from DT’s perspective, discuss the potential positives and negatives of its arrangement with Owner with respect to Holdings; and (7) after analyzing additional facts, discuss the nature of the relations of Simon and Herb III with Owner.

Foreign direct investment through acquisitions and implications for technological upgrading: case evidence from Tanzania

Using a case study approach, this paper examines the role of privatisation on the industrial landscape of Tanzania. We examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) through acquisitions on technology transfer within the acquired firm as well as the development of linkages to other firms based in the host country. Our results suggest that technological upgrading has occurred following FDI, the intensity of which reflects the type of firm-specific assets of the parent multinational enterprise (MNE), as well as the pre-acquisition state of these industrial activities. Improved backward linkages are also evident with local economic agents, but their type and extent – reflecting Tanzania's comparative advantage in the primary sector – confirm that capabilities both within the acquired firms and also in the industrial base of the host country greatly influence the magnitude and intensity of technological upgrading. 'Narrower' technology gaps between the MNE affiliate and the domestic sector are more likely to result in backward linkages and determine the type of technological content of inputs sourced locally rather than within the MNE.

Handbook of institutional investment and fiduciary duty

Foreword by Al Gore, former Vice President of the United States Endorsements by Keith Ambachsheer, James Gifford, John Kay, Bob Monks, Knut Rostad and Anne Stausboll