Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate

While many studies have demonstrated the sensitivities of plants and of crop yield to a changing climate, a major challenge for the agricultural research community is to relate these findings to the broader societal concern with food security. This paper reviews the direct effects of climate on both crop growth and yield and on plant pests and pathogens and the interactions that may occur between crops, pests, and pathogens under changed climate. Finally, we consider the contribution that better understanding of the roles of pests and pathogens in crop production systems might make to enhanced food security. Evidence for the measured climate change on crops and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented. Globally atmospheric [CO(2)] has increased, and in northern latitudes mean temperature at many locations has increased by about 1.0-1.4 degrees C with accompanying changes in pest and pathogen incidence and to farming practices. Many pests and pathogens exhibit considerable capacity for generating, recombining, and selecting fit combinations of variants in key pathogenicity, fitness, and aggressiveness traits that there is little doubt that any new opportunities resulting from climate change will be exploited by them. However, the interactions between crops and pests and pathogens are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.

The Climate-G testbed: towards large scale distributed data management for climate change

Climate-G is a large scale distributed testbed devoted to climate change research. It is an unfunded effort started in 2008 and involving a wide community both in Europe and US. The testbed is an interdisciplinary effort involving partners from several institutions and joining expertise in the field of climate change and computational science. Its main goal is to allow scientists carrying out geographical and cross-institutional data discovery, access, analysis, visualization and sharing of climate data. It represents an attempt to address, in a real environment, challenging data and metadata management issues. This paper presents a complete overview about the Climate-G testbed highlighting the most important results that have been achieved since the beginning of this project.

Early–Middle Holocene vegetation history, climate change and human activities at Lago Riane (Ligurian Apennines, NW Italy)

The radiocarbon-dated palaeoecological study of Lago Riane (Ligurian Apennines, NW Italy) presented here forms part of a wider investigation into the relationships between Holocene vegetation succession, climate change and human activities in the northern Apennines. The record of vegetation history from Lago Riane indicates that, since the end of the last glaciation, climate change and prehistoric human activities, combined with several local factors, have strongly influenced the pattern and timing of natural vegetation succession. The pollen record indicates an important change in vegetation cover at Lago Riane at ~8500–8200 cal. years b.p., coincident with a well-known period of rapid climate change. At ~6100 cal. years b.p., Fagus woodland colonised Lago Riane during a period of climate change and expansion of Late Neolithic human activities in the upland zone of Liguria. A marked decline in Abies woodland, and the expansion of Fagus woodland, at ~4700 cal. years b.p., coincided with further archaeological evidence for pastoralism in the mountains of Liguria during the Copper Age. At ~3900–3600 cal. years b.p. (Early to Middle Bronze Age transition), a temporary expansion of woodland at Lago Riane has been provisionally attributed to a decline in human pressure on the environment during a period of short-term climate change

Climate change and agricultural adaptation in Sri Lanka: a review

Climate change is inevitable and will continue into the next century. Since the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka is one of the most vulnerable to climate change, a thorough understanding of climate transition is critical for formulating effective adaptation strategies. This paper provides an overview of the status of climate change and adaptation in the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka. The review clearly indicates that climate change is taking place in Sri Lanka in terms of rainfall variability and an increase in climate extremes and warming. A number of planned and reactive adaptation responses stemming from policy and farm-level decisions are reported. These adaptation efforts were fragmented and lacked a coherent connection to the national development policies and strategies. Research efforts are needed to develop and identify adaptation approaches and practices that are feasible for smallholder farmers, particularly in the dry zone where paddy and other food crops are predominately cultivated. To achieve the envisaged growth in the agricultural sector, rigorous efforts are necessary to mainstream climate change adaptation into national development policies and ensure that they are implemented at national, regional and local levels.

Cultivating C4 crops in a changing climate: sugarcane in Ghana

Over the next few decades, it is expected that increasing fossil fuel prices will lead to a proliferation of energy crop cultivation initiatives. The environmental sustainability of these activities is thus a pressing issue—particularly when they take place in vulnerable regions, such as West Africa. In more general terms, the effect of increased CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures on biomass production and evapotranspiration affects the evolution of the global hydrological and carbon cycles. Investigating these processes for a C4 crop, such as sugarcane, thus provides an opportunity both to extend our understanding of the impact of climate change, and to assess our capacity to model the underpinning processes. This paper applies a process-based crop model to sugarcane in Ghana (where cultivation is planned), and the São Paulo region of Brazil (which has a well-established sugarcane industry). We show that, in the Daka River region of Ghana, provided there is sufficient irrigation, it is possible to generate approximately 75% of the yield achieved in the São Paulo region. In the final part of the study, the production of sugarcane under an idealized temperature increase climate change scenario is explored. It is shown that doubling CO2 mitigates the degree of water stress associated with a 4 °C increase in temperature.

Integrating Sustainability into Brownfield Regeneration: Rhetoric or Reality? – An Analysis of the UK Development Industry

In the UK and elsewhere the use of the term ‘sustainable brownfield regeneration’ has resulted from the interweaving of two key policy themes, comprising ‘sustainable development’ and ‘brownfield regeneration’. This paper provides a critical overview of brownfield policy within the context of the emerging sustainable development agenda in the UK, and examines the development industry's role and attitudes towards key aspects of sustainable development and brownfield regeneration. The paper analyses results from a survey of commercial and residential developers carried out in mid‐2004, underpinned by structured interviews with eleven developers in 2004–2005, which form part of a two‐and‐half‐year EPSRC‐funded project. The results suggest that despite the increasing focus on sustainability in government policy, the development industry seems ill at ease with precisely how sustainable development can be implemented in brownfield schemes. These and other findings, relating to sustainability issues (including the impact of climate change on future brownfield development), have important ramifications for brownfield regeneration policy in the UK. In particular, the research highlights the need for better metrics and benchmarks to be developed to measure ‘sustainable brownfield regeneration’. There also needs to be greater awareness and understanding of alternative clean‐up technologies to ‘dig and dump’.

Climate change and the current 'food crisis'

Many reasons are being advanced for the current ‘food crisis’ including financial speculation,increased demand for grains, export bans on selected foodstuffs, inadequate grain stocks, higher oil prices, poor harvests and the use of crop lands for the production of biofuels. This paper reviews the present knowledge of recorded impacts of climate change and variability on crop production, in order to estimate its contribution to the current situation. Many studies demonstrate increased regional temperatures over the last 40 years (often through greater increases in minimum rather than maximum temperatures), but effects on crop yields are mixed. Distinguishing climate effects from changes in yield resulting from improved crop management and genotypes is difficult, but phenological changes affecting sowing, maturity and disease incidence are emerging. Anthropogenic factors appear to be a significant contributory factor to the observed decline in rainfall in southwestern and southeastern Australia, which reduced tradable wheat grain during 2007. Indirect effects of climate change through actions to mitigate or adapt to anticipated changes in climate are also evident. The amount of land diverted from crop production to biofuel production is small but has had a disproportionate effect on tradable grains from the USA. Adaptation of crop production practices and other components of the food system contributing to food security in response to variable and changing climates have occurred, but those households without adequate livelihoods are most in danger of becoming food insecure. Overall, we conclude that changing climate is a small contributor to the current food crisis but cannot be ignored.

What (science for) adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture? A commentary on “A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050” by J. Ramirez-Villegas, M. Salazar, A. Jarvis, C. E. Navarro-Valcines.

Climate change is putting Colombian agriculture under significant stress and, if no adaptation is made, the latter will be severely impacted during the next decades. Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2012) set out a government-led, top-down, techno-scientific proposal for a way forward by which Colombian agriculture could adapt to climate change. However, this proposal largely overlooks the root causes of vulnerability of Colombian agriculture, and of smallholders in particular. I discuss some of the hidden assumptions underpinning this proposal and of the arguments employed by Ramirez-Villegas et al., based on existing literature on Colombian agriculture and the wider scientific debate on adaptation to climate change. While technical measures may play an important role in the adaptation of Colombian agriculture to climate change, I question whether the actions listed in the proposal alone and specifically for smallholders, truly represent priority issues. I suggest that by i) looking at vulnerability before adaptation, ii) contextualising climate change as one of multiple exposures, and iii) truly putting smallholders at the centre of adaptation, i.e. to learn about and with them, different and perhaps more urgent priorities for action can be identified. Ultimately, I argue that what is at stake is not only a list of adaptation measures but, more importantly, the scientific approach from which priorities for action are identified. In this respect, I propose that transformative rather than technical fix adaptation represents a better approach for Colombian agriculture and smallholders in particular, in the face of climate change.

Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections

The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering

The likelihood that continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to an unmanageable degree of climate change [1] has stimulated the search for planetary-scale technological solutions for reducing global warming [2] (“geoengineering”), typically characterized by the necessity for costly new infrastructures and industries [3]. We suggest that the existing global infrastructure associated with arable agriculture can help, given that crop plants exert an important influence over the climatic energy budget 4 and 5 because of differences in their albedo (solar reflectivity) compared to soils and to natural vegetation [6]. Specifically, we propose a “bio-geoengineering” approach to mitigate surface warming, in which crop varieties having specific leaf glossiness and/or canopy morphological traits are specifically chosen to maximize solar reflectivity. We quantify this by modifying the canopy albedo of vegetation in prescribed cropland areas in a global-climate model, and thereby estimate the near-term potential for bio-geoengineering to be a summertime cooling of more than 1°C throughout much of central North America and midlatitude Eurasia, equivalent to seasonally offsetting approximately one-fifth of regional warming due to doubling of atmospheric CO2[7]. Ultimately, genetic modification of plant leaf waxes or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions, although better characterization of existing intraspecies variability is needed first.

Observed adaptation to climate change as initiated transition

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

On climate change and cultural geography: farming on the Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall, UK

Climate change as a global problem has moved relatively swiftly into high profile political debates over the last 20 years or so, with a concomitant diffusion from the natural sciences into the social sciences. The study of the human dimensions of climate change has been growing in momentum through research which attempts to describe, evaluate, quantify and model perceptions of climate change, understand more about risk and assess the construction of policy. Cultural geographers’ concerns with the construction of knowledge, the workings of social relations in space and the politics and poetics of place-based identities provide a lens through which personal, collective and institutional responses to climate change can be evaluated using critical and interpretative methodologies. Adopting a cultural geography approach, this paper examines how climate change as a particular environmental discourse is constructed through memory, observation and conversation, as well as materialised in farming practices on the Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall, UK

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship of future climate change and adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al.; O’Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. A key goal of the current framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.

Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment UK with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD

The potential impact of climate change on areas of strategic importance for water resources remains a concern. Here, river flow projections for the River Medway, above Teston in southeast England are presented, which is just such an area of strategic importance. The river flow projections use climate inputs from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) for the time period 1960–2080 (a subset of the early release UKCP09 projections). River flow predictions are calculated using CATCHMOD, the main river flow prediction tool of the Environment Agency (EA) of England and Wales. In order to use this tool in the best way for climate change predictions, model setup and performance are analysed using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model's representation of hydrological processes is discussed and the direct percolation and first linear storage constant parameters are found to strongly affect model results in a complex way, with the former more important for low flows and the latter for high flows. The uncertainty in predictions resulting from the hydrological model parameters is demonstrated and the projections of river flow under future climate are analysed. A clear climate change impact signal is evident in the results with a persistent lowering of mean daily river flows for all months and for all projection time slices. Results indicate that a projection of lower flows under future climate is valid even taking into account the uncertainties considered in this modelling chain exercise. The model parameter uncertainty becomes more significant under future climate as the river flows become lower. This has significant implications for those making policy decisions based on such modelling results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.