Big Data and ecosystem research programmes

The size and complexity of data sets generated within ecosystem-level programmes merits their capture, curation, storage and analysis, synthesis and visualisation using Big Data approaches. This review looks at previous attempts to organise and analyse such data through the International Biological Programme and draws on the mistakes made and the lessons learned for effective Big Data approaches to current Research Councils United Kingdom (RCUK) ecosystem-level programmes, using Biodiversity and Ecosystem Service Sustainability (BESS) and Environmental Virtual Observatory Pilot (EVOp) as exemplars. The challenges raised by such data are identified, explored and suggestions are made for the two major issues of extending analyses across different spatio-temporal scales and for the effective integration of quantitative and qualitative data.

Toward multifactorial null models of range contraction in terrestrial vertebrates

The contraction of a species’ distribution range, which results from the extirpation of local populations, generally precedes its extinction. Therefore, understanding drivers of range contraction is important for conservation and management. Although there are many processes that can potentially lead to local extirpation and range contraction, three main null models have been proposed: demographic, contagion, and refuge. The first two models postulate that the probability of local extirpation for a given area depends on its relative position within the range; but these models generate distinct spatial predictions because they assume either a ubiquitous (demographic) or a clinal (contagion) distribution of threats. The third model (refuge) postulates that extirpations are determined by the intensity of human impacts, leading to heterogeneous spatial predictions potentially compatible with those made by the other two null models. A few previous studies have explored the generality of some of these null models, but we present here the first comprehensive evaluation of all three models. Using descriptive indices and regression analyses we contrast the predictions made by each of the null models using empirical spatial data describing range contraction in 386 terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles) distributed across the World. Observed contraction patterns do not consistently conform to the predictions of any of the three models, suggesting that these may not be adequate null models to evaluate range contraction dynamics among terrestrial vertebrates. Instead, our results support alternative null models that account for both relative position and intensity of human impacts. These new models provide a better multifactorial baseline to describe range contraction patterns in vertebrates. This general baseline can be used to explore how additional factors influence contraction, and ultimately extinction for particular areas or species as well as to predict future changes in light of current and new threats.

Declining resilience of ecosystem functions under biodiversity loss

The composition of species communities is changing rapidly through drivers such as habitat loss and climate change, with potentially serious consequences for the resilience of ecosystem functions on which humans depend. To assess such changes in resilience, we analyse trends in the frequency of species in Great Britain that provide key ecosystem functions-specifically decomposition, carbon sequestration, pollination, pest control and cultural values. For 4,424 species over four decades, there have been significant net declines among animal species that provide pollination, pest control and cultural values. Groups providing decomposition and carbon sequestration remain relatively stable, as fewer species are in decline and these are offset by large numbers of new arrivals into Great Britain. While there is general concern about degradation of a wide range of ecosystem functions, our results suggest actions should focus on particular functions for which there is evidence of substantial erosion of their resilience.

Functional identity and diversity of animals predict ecosystem functioning better than species-based indices

Drastic biodiversity declines have raised concerns about the deterioration of ecosystem functions and have motivated much recent research on the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. A functional trait framework has been proposed to improve the mechanistic understanding of this relationship, but this has rarely been tested for organisms other than plants. We analysed eight datasets, including five animal groups, to examine how well a trait-based approach, compared with a more traditional taxonomic approach, predicts seven ecosystem functions below- and above-ground. Trait-based indices consistently provided greater explanatory power than species richness or abundance. The frequency distributions of single or multiple traits in the community were the best predictors of ecosystem functioning. This implies that the ecosystem functions we investigated were underpinned by the combination of trait identities (i.e. single-trait indices) and trait complementarity (i.e. multi-trait indices) in the communities. Our study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se.

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr

A new global synthesis and biomization of long (> 40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented and used with sim- ulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models and the BIOME4 vegetation model to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Simulated biome distribu- tions using BIOME4 driven by HadCM3 and FAMOUS at the global scale over time generally agree well with those in- ferred from pollen data. Global average areas of grassland and dry shrubland, desert, and tundra biomes show large- scale increases during the Last Glacial Maximum, between ca. 64 and 74 ka BP and cool substages of Marine Isotope Stage 5, at the expense of the tropical forest, warm-temperate forest, and temperate forest biomes. These changes are re- flected in BIOME4 simulations of global net primary pro- ductivity, showing good agreement between the two models. Such changes are likely to affect terrestrial carbon storage, which in turn influences the stable carbon isotopic composi- tion of seawater as terrestrial carbon is depleted in 13C.

Resource-dependent livelihoods and the natural resource base

The natural resource base, terrestrial and marine, provides rural households in lower-income countries with income, food, shelter, and medicines, which are variously gathered and hunted in common lands and waters. These resources may be actively managed, whether by the government or local community; or may be de facto open access, with little effort by governments to prevent what may be de jure illegal extraction. This paper provides an appraisal of the literature that encompasses the direct value of wild resources to rural households; the extent to which these resources mitigate poverty and inequality; and the importance of the institutional context. The literature is increasingly addressing competing demands on the resource base both to support nearby livelihoods, and to enhance ecosystem services such as biodiversity; and how initiatives such as community-based payments for ecosystem services are changing how people interact with the resource base.

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

Green infrastructure and ecosystem services - is the devil in the detail?

Background - Green infrastructure is a strategic network of green spaces designed to deliver ecosystem services to human communities. Green infrastructure is a convenient concept for urban policy makers, but the term is used too-generically and with limited understanding of the relative values or benefits of different types of green space and how these complement one another. At a finer scale/more practical level– little consideration is given to the composition of the plant-communities, yet this is what ultimately defines extent of service provision. This paper calls for greater attention to be paid to urban plantings with respect to ecosystem service delivery and for plant science to engage more-fully in identifying those plants that promote various services. Scope - Many urban plantings are designed based on aesthetics alone, with limited thought on how plant choice/composition provides other ecosystem services. Research is beginning to demonstrate, however, that landscape plants provide a range of important services, such as helping mitigate floods and alleviating heat islands, but that not all species are equally effective. The paper reviews a number of important services and demonstrates how genotype choice radically affects service delivery. Conclusions – Although research is in its infancy, data is being generated that relates plant traits to specific services; thereby helping identify genotypes that optimise service delivery. The urban environment, however, will become exceedingly bland if future planting is simply restricted to monocultures of a few ‘functional’ genotypes. Therefore, further information is required on how to design plant communities where the plants identified:- a/ provide more than a single benefit (multi-functionality) b/ complement each other in maximising the range of benefits that can be delivered in one location and c/ continue to maintain public acceptance through diversity. The identification/development of functional landscape plants is an exciting and potentially high impact arena for plant science.