A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

Predictability of frontal waves and cyclones

The statistical properties and skill in predictions of objectively identified and tracked cyclonic features (frontal waves and cyclones) are examined in MOGREPS-15, the global 15-day version of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The number density of cyclonic features is found to decline with increasing lead-time, with analysis fields containing weak features which are not sustained past the first day of the forecast. This loss of cyclonic features is associated with a decline in area averaged enstrophy with increasing lead time. Both feature number density and area averaged enstrophy saturate by around 7 days into the forecast. It is found that the feature number density and area averaged enstrophy of forecasts produced using model versions that include stochastic energy backscatter saturate at higher values than forecasts produced without stochastic physics. The ability of MOGREPS-15 to predict the locations of cyclonic features of different strengths is evaluated at different spatial scales by examining the Brier Skill (relative to the analysis climatology) of strike probability forecasts: the probability that a cyclonic feature center is located within a specified radius. The radius at which skill is maximised increases with lead time from 650km at 12h to 950km at 7 days. The skill is greatest for the most intense features. Forecast skill remains above zero at these scales out to 14 days for the most intense cyclonic features, but only out to 8 days when all features are included irrespective of intensity.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.

On the detection and attribution of gravity waves generated by the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse

Internal gravity waves are generated as adjustment radiation whenever a sudden change in forcing causes the atmosphere to depart from its large-scale balanced state. Such a forcing anomaly occurs during a solar eclipse, when the Moon’s shadow cools part of the Earth’s surface. The resulting atmospheric gravity waves are associated with pressure and temperature perturbations, which in principle are detectable both at the surface and aloft. In this study, surface pressure and temperature data from two UK sites at Reading and Lerwick are analysed for eclipse-driven gravity-wave perturbations during the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse over north-west Europe. Radiosonde wind data from the same two sites are also analysed using a moving parcel analysis method, to determine the periodicities of the waves aloft. On this occasion, the perturbations both at the surface and aloft are found not to be confidently attributable to eclipse-driven gravity waves. We conclude that the complex synoptic weather conditions over the UK at the time of this particular eclipse helped to mask any eclipse-driven gravity waves.

The longitudinal variation of equatorial waves due to propagation on a varying zonal flow

The general 1-D theory of waves propagating on a zonally varying flow is developed from basic wave theory, and equations are derived for the variation of wavenumber and energy along ray paths. Different categories of behaviour are found, depending on the sign of the group velocity (cg) and a wave property, B. For B positive the wave energy and the wave number vary in the same sense, with maxima in relative easterlies or westerlies, depending on the sign of cg. Also the wave accumulation of Webster and Chang (1988) occurs where cg goes to zero. However for B negative they behave in opposite senses and wave accumulation does not occur. The zonal propagation of the gravest equatorial waves is analysed in detail using the theory. For non-dispersive Kelvin waves, B reduces to 2, and analytic solution is possible. B is positive for all the waves considered, except for the westward moving mixed Rossby-gravity (WMRG) wave which can have negative as well as positive B. Comparison is made between the observed climatologies of the individual equatorial waves and the result of pure propagation on the climatological upper tropospheric flow. The Kelvin wave distribution is in remarkable agreement, considering the approximations made. Some aspects of the WMRG and Rossby wave distributions are also in qualitative agreement. However the observed maxima in these waves in the winter westerlies in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic are not consistent with the theory. This is consistent with the importance of the sources of equatorial waves in these westerly duct regions due to higher latitude wave activity.

How do green roofs mitigate urban thermal stress under heat waves?

As the climate warms, heat waves (HW) are projected to be more intense and to last longer, with serious implications for public health. Urban residents face higher health risks because urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate HW conditions. One strategy to mitigate negative impacts of urban thermal stress is the installation of green roofs (GRs) given their evaporative cooling effect. However, the effectiveness of GRs and the mechanisms by which they have an effect at the scale of entire cities are still largely unknown. The Greater Beijing Region (GBR) is modeled for a HW scenario with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a state-of-the-art urban canopy model (PUCM) to examine the effectiveness of GRs. The results suggest GR would decrease near-surface air temperature (ΔT2max = 2.5 K) and wind speed (ΔUV10max = 1.0 m s-1) but increase atmospheric humidity (ΔQ2max = 1.3 g kg-1). GRs are simulated to lessen the overall thermal stress as indicated by apparent temperature (ΔAT2max = 1.7 °C). The modifications by GRs scale almost linearly with the fraction of the surface they cover. Investigation of the surface-atmosphere interactions indicate that GRs with plentiful soil moisture dissipate more of the surface energy as latent heat flux and subsequently inhibit the development of the daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL). This causes the atmospheric heating through entrainment at the PBL top to be decreased. Additionally, urban GRs modify regional circulation regimes leading to decreased advective heating under HW.

ENSO related variation of equatorial MRG and Rossby waves and forcing from higher latitudes

The contrasting behaviour of westward-moving mixed Rossby-gravity (WMRG) and the first Rossby (R1) waves in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) seasons is documented with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere winter. The eastward-moving variance in the upper troposphere is dominated by WMRG and R1 structures that appear to be Doppler-shifted by the flow and are referred to as WMRG-E and R1-E. In the East Pacific and Atlantic the years with stronger equatorial westerly winds have the stronger WMRG and WMRG- E. In the East Pacific, R1 is also a maximum in LN. However, R1-E exhibits an eastward-shift between LN and EN. The changes with ENSO phase provide a test-bed for the understanding of these waves. In the East Pacific and Atlantic, the stronger WMRG-E and WMRG with stronger westerlies are in accord with the dispersion relation with simple Doppler-shifting by the zonal flow. The possible existence of free waves can also explain stronger R1 in EN in the Eastern Hemisphere. 1-D free wave propagation theory based on wave activity conservation is also important for R1. However, this theory is unable to explain the amplitude maxima for other waves observed in the strong equatorial westerly regions in the Western Hemisphere, and certainly not their ENSO-related variation. The forcing of equatorial waves by higher latitude wave activity and its variation with ENSO phase is therefore examined. Propagation of extratropical eastward-moving Rossby wave activity through the westerly ducts into the equatorial region where it triggers WMRG-E is favoured in the stronger westerlies, in LN in the East Pacific and EN in the Atlantic. It is also found that WMRG is forced by Southern Hemisphere westward-moving wavetrains arching into the equatorial region where they are reflected. The most significant mechanism for both R1 and R1-E appear to be lateral forcing by subtropical wavetrains.