A comparison of models for estimating the riverine export of nitrogen from large watersheds

We evaluated the accuracy of six watershed models of nitrogen export in streams (kg km2 yr−1) developed for use in large watersheds and representing various empirical and quasi-empirical approaches described in the literature. These models differ in their methods of calibration and have varying levels of spatial resolution and process complexity, which potentially affect the accuracy (bias and precision) of the model predictions of nitrogen export and source contributions to export. Using stream monitoring data and detailed estimates of the natural and cultural sources of nitrogen for 16 watersheds in the northeastern United States (drainage sizes = 475 to 70,000 km2), we assessed the accuracy of the model predictions of total nitrogen and nitrate-nitrogen export. The model validation included the use of an error modeling technique to identify biases caused by model deficiencies in quantifying nitrogen sources and biogeochemical processes affecting the transport of nitrogen in watersheds. Most models predicted stream nitrogen export to within 50% of the measured export in a majority of the watersheds. Prediction errors were negatively correlated with cultivated land area, indicating that the watershed models tended to over predict export in less agricultural and more forested watersheds and under predict in more agricultural basins. The magnitude of these biases differed appreciably among the models. Those models having more detailed descriptions of nitrogen sources, land and water attenuation of nitrogen, and water flow paths were found to have considerably lower bias and higher precision in their predictions of nitrogen export.

Association between cyclohexane resistance in Salmonella of different serovars and increased, resistance to multiple antibiotics, disinfectants and dyes

A panel of 388 salmonellas of animal and human origin, comprising 35 serotypes, was tested for resistance to cyclohexane and to a range of antibiotics, disinfectants and dyes. Cyclohexane resistance was detected in 41 isolates (10.6%): these comprised members of the serovars Binza (1 of 15), Dublin (1 of 24), Enteritidis (1 of 61), Fischerkietz (4 of 5), Livingstone (9 of 11), Montevideo (1 of 32), Newport (4 of 23), Saint-paul (1 of 3), Senftenberg (10 of 24) and Typhimurium (9 of 93). Most (39 of 41) of the cyclohexane-resistant isolates were from poultry. Statistical analysis showed that the cyclohexane-resistant strains were significantly more resistant than the cyclohexane-susceptible strains to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, nalidixic acid, tetracycline, trimethoprim, cetrimide and triclosan. The multiresistance patterns seen,were typical of those caused by efflux pumps, such as AcrAB. The emergence of such resistance may play an important role in the overall antibiotic resistance picture of Salmonella, with particular effect on ciprofloxacin.

Bis(azidophenyl)phosphole building block for extended π-conjugated systems

Novel bis(azidophenyl)phosphole sulfide building block 8 has been developed to give access to a plethora of phosphole-containing π-conjugated systems in a simple synthetic step. This was explored for the reaction of the two azido moieties with phenyl-, pyridyl- and thienylacetylenes, to give bis(aryltriazolyl)-extended π-systems, having either the phosphole sulfide (9) or the phosphole (10) group as central ring. These conjugated frameworks exhibit intriguing photophysical and electrochemical properties that vary with the nature of the aromatic end-group. The λ3-phospholes 10 display blue fluorescence (λem = 460–469 nm) with high quan-tum yield (ΦF = 0.134–0.309). The radical anion of pyridylsubstituted phosphole sulfide 9b was observed with UV/Vis spectroscopy. TDDFT calculations on the extended π-systems showed some variation in the shape of the HOMOs, which was found to have an effect on the extent of charge transfer, depending on the aromatic end-group. Some fine-tuning of the emission maxima was observed, albeit subtle, showing a decrease in conjugation in the order thienyl � phenyl � pyridyl. These results show that variations in the distal ends of such π-systems have a subtle but significant effect on photophysical properties.

Case study part 2: probabilistic modelling of long-term effects of pesticides on individual breeding success in birds and mammals

Abstract: Long-term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al.(2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season’s end.

Assessing continental-scale risks for generalist and specialist pollinating bee species under climate change

Increased risks of extinction to populations of animals and plants under changing climate have now been demonstrated for many taxa. This study assesses the extinction risks to species within an important genus of pollinating bees (Colletes: Apidae) by estimating the expected changes in the area and isolation of suitable habitat under predicted climatic condition for 2050. Suitable habitat was defined on the basis of the presence of known forage plants as well as climatic suitability. To investigate whether ecological specialisation was linked to extinction risk we compared three species which were generalist pollen foragers on several plant families with three species which specialised on pollen from a single plant species. Both specialist and generalist species showed an increased risk of extinction with shifting climate, and this was particularly high for the most specialised species (Colletes anchusae and C. wolfi). The forage generalist C. impunctatus, which is associated with Boreo-Alpine environments, is potentially threatened through significant reduction in available climatic niche space. Including the distribution of the principal or sole pollen forage plant, when modelling the distribution of monolectic or narrowly oligolectic species, did not improve the predictive accuracy of our models as the plant species were considerably more widespread than the specialised bees associated with them.

Species richness declines and biotic homogenization have slowed down for NW-European pollinators and plants

Concern about biodiversity loss has led to increased public investment in conservation. Whereas there is a widespread perception that such initiatives have been unsuccessful, there are few quantitative tests of this perception. Here, we evaluate whether rates of biodiversity change have altered in recent decades in three European countries (Great Britain, Netherlands and Belgium) for plants and flower visiting insects. We compared four 20-year periods, comparing periods of rapid land-use intensification and natural habitat loss (1930–1990) with a period of increased conservation investment (post-1990). We found that extensive species richness loss and biotic homogenisation occurred before 1990, whereas these negative trends became substantially less accentuated during recent decades, being partially reversed for certain taxa (e.g. bees in Great Britain and Netherlands). These results highlight the potential to maintain or even restore current species assemblages (which despite past extinctions are still of great conservation value), at least in regions where large-scale land-use intensification and natural habitat loss has ceased.

Satellite observations and modeling of transport in the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere during the 2006 major stratospheric sudden warming

An unusually strong and prolonged stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in January 2006 was the first major SSW for which globally distributed long-lived trace gas data are available covering the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) data, the SLIMCAT Chemistry Transport Model (CTM), and assimilated meteorological analyses to provide a comprehensive picture of transport during this event. The upper tropospheric ridge that triggered the SSW was associated with an elevated tropopause and layering in trace gas profiles in conjunction with stratospheric and tropospheric intrusions. Anomalous poleward transport (with corresponding quasi-isentropic troposphere-to-stratosphere exchange at the lowest levels studied) in the region over the ridge extended well into the lower stratosphere. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the breakdown of the polar vortex transport barrier was seen in a signature of rapid, widespread mixing in trace gases, including CO, H2O, CH4 and N2O. The vortex broke down slightly later and more slowly in the lower than in the middle stratosphere. In the middle and lower stratosphere, small remnants with trace gas values characteristic of the pre-SSW vortex lingered through the weak and slow recovery of the vortex. The upper stratospheric vortex quickly reformed, and, as enhanced diabatic descent set in, CO descended into this strong vortex, echoing the fall vortex development. Trace gas evolution in the SLIMCAT CTM agrees well with that in the satellite trace gas data from the upper troposphere through the middle stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, the SLIMCAT simulation does not capture the strong descent of mesospheric CO and H2O values into the reformed vortex; this poor CTM performance in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere results primarily from biases in the diabatic descent in assimilated analyses.

Gene expression changes in phosphorus deficient potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) leaves and the potential for diagnostic gene expression markers

Background: There are compelling economic and environmental reasons to reduce our reliance on inorganic phosphate (Pi) fertilisers. Better management of Pi fertiliser applications is one option to improve the efficiency of Pi fertiliser use, whilst maintaining crop yields. Application rates of Pi fertilisers are traditionally determined from analyses of soil or plant tissues. Alternatively, diagnostic genes with altered expression under Pi limiting conditions that suggest a physiological requirement for Pi fertilisation, could be used to manage Pifertiliser applications, and might be more precise than indirect measurements of soil or tissue samples. Results: We grew potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) plants hydroponically, under glasshouse conditions, to control their nutrient status accurately. Samples of total leaf RNA taken periodically after Pi was removed from the nutrient solution were labelled and hybridised to potato oligonucleotide arrays. A total of 1,659 genes were significantly differentially expressed following Pi withdrawal. These included genes that encode proteins involved in lipid, protein, and carbohydrate metabolism, characteristic of Pi deficient leaves and included potential novel roles for genes encoding patatin like proteins in potatoes. The array data were analysed using a support vector machine algorithm to identify groups of genes that could predict the Pi status of the crop. These groups of diagnostic genes were tested using field grown potatoes that had either been fertilised or unfertilised. A group of 200 genes could correctly predict the Pi status of field grown potatoes. Conclusions: This paper provides a proof-of-concept demonstration for using microarrays and class prediction tools to predict the Pi status of a field grown potato crop. There is potential to develop this technology for other biotic and abiotic stresses in field grown crops. Ultimately, a better understanding of crop stresses may improve our management of the crop, improving the sustainability of agriculture.

Within-host evolution of Staphylococcus aureus during asymptomatic carriage

Background Staphylococcus aureus is a major cause of healthcare associated mortality, but like many important bacterial pathogens, it is a common constituent of the normal human body flora. Around a third of healthy adults are carriers. Recent evidence suggests that evolution of S. aureus during nasal carriage may be associated with progression to invasive disease. However, a more detailed understanding of within-host evolution under natural conditions is required to appreciate the evolutionary and mechanistic reasons why commensal bacteria such as S. aureus cause disease. Therefore we examined in detail the evolutionary dynamics of normal, asymptomatic carriage. Sequencing a total of 131 genomes across 13 singly colonized hosts using the Illumina platform, we investigated diversity, selection, population dynamics and transmission during the short-term evolution of S. aureus. Principal Findings We characterized the processes by which the raw material for evolution is generated: micro-mutation (point mutation and small insertions/deletions), macro-mutation (large insertions/deletions) and the loss or acquisition of mobile elements (plasmids and bacteriophages). Through an analysis of synonymous, non-synonymous and intergenic mutations we discovered a fitness landscape dominated by purifying selection, with rare examples of adaptive change in genes encoding surface-anchored proteins and an enterotoxin. We found evidence for dramatic, hundred-fold fluctuations in the size of the within-host population over time, which we related to the cycle of colonization and clearance. Using a newly-developed population genetics approach to detect recent transmission among hosts, we revealed evidence for recent transmission between some of our subjects, including a husband and wife both carrying populations of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). Significance This investigation begins to paint a picture of the within-host evolution of an important bacterial pathogen during its prevailing natural state, asymptomatic carriage. These results also have wider significance as a benchmark for future systematic studies of evolution during invasive S. aureus disease.