Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

A critical evaluation of the ability of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) thermal infrared red-green-blue rendering to identify dust events: theoretical analysis

Using a combination of idealized radiative transfer simulations and a case study from the first field campaign of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) in southern Morocco, this paper provides a systematic assessment of the limitations of the widely used Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) red-green-blue (RGB) thermal infrared dust product. Both analyses indicate that the ability of the product to identify dust, via its characteristic pink coloring, is strongly dependent on the column water vapor, the lower tropospheric lapse rate, and dust altitude. In particular, when column water vapor exceeds ∼20–25 mm, dust presence, even for visible optical depths of the order 0.8, is effectively masked. Variability in dust optical properties also has a marked impact on the imagery, primarily as a result of variability in dust composition. There is a moderate sensitivity to the satellite viewing geometry, particularly in moist conditions. The underlying surface can act to confound the signal seen through variations in spectral emissivity, which are predominantly manifested in the 8.7μm SEVIRI channel. In addition, if a temperature inversion is present, typical of early morning conditions over the Sahara and Sahel, an increased dust loading can actually reduce the pink coloring of the RGB image compared to pristine conditions. Attempts to match specific SEVIRI observations to simulations using SAMUM measurements are challenging because of high uncertainties in surface skin temperature and emissivity. Recommendations concerning the use and interpretation of the SEVIRI RGB imagery are provided on the basis of these findings.

Earth hummocks in north-east Okstindan, northern Norway: morphology, distribution and environmental constraints

Earth hummocks (also termed pounus or thúfur) are a common form of periglacial non-sorted patterned ground. The study objectives were to determine the morphology, distribution and development on slopes of earth hummocks in north-east Okstindan, Norway, an area with many hummocks but few documented accounts. The methodology involved detailed geomorphological mapping and precise measurement with a profileometer. The internal structure of the hummocks was investigated through excavations and sediment sample analyses. Fourteen sites with well-developed earth hummocks (accounting for over 650 individual hummock forms) were investigated. The sites have an average altitude of 750 m and occur on slopes with an average gradient of 7°. The hummock heights are in the range 0.11–0.52 m and their diameters 0.7–1.5 m, although coalescent forms are up to 5 m in length. The hummock morphology is characterised by a variable plan form, asymmetry with respect to upslope and downslope forms, downslope elongation, coalescence, and superimposed microtopography. The hummocks’ distribution appeared to have been controlled by the existence of a frost-susceptible ‘host’ sediment, but moisture availability and topographic position played a role. The authors conclude that differential frost heave and vegetation cover stability are critical for the hummocks’ longevity in the studied landscape.

Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959-2008

Temperature is a key variable for monitoring global climate change. Here we perform a trend analysis of Swiss temperatures from 1959 to 2008, using a new 2 × 2 km gridded data-set based on carefully homogenised ground observations from MeteoSwiss. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to discuss the spatial and altitudinal temperature trend characteristics in detail, and second, to quantify the contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation and local effects to these trends. The seasonal trends are all positive and mostly significant with an annual average warming rate of 0.35 °C/decade (∼1.6 times the northern hemispheric warming rate), ranging from 0.17 in autumn to 0.48 °C/decade in summer. Altitude-dependent trends are found in autumn and early winter where the trends are stronger at low altitudes (<800 m asl), and in spring where slightly stronger trends are found at altitudes close to the snow line. Part of the trends can be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation, but with substantial differences from season to season. In winter, circulation effects account for more than half the trends, while this contribution is much smaller in other seasons. After removing the effect of circulation, the trends still show seasonal variations with higher values in spring and summer. The circulation-corrected trends are closer to the values simulated by a set of ENSEMBLES regional climate models, with the models still tending towards a trend underestimation in spring and summer. Our results suggest that both circulation changes and more local effects are important to explain part of recent warming in spring, summer, and autumn. Snow-albedo feedback effects could be responsible for the stronger spring trends at altitudes close to the snow line, but the overall effect is small. In autumn, the observed decrease in fog frequency might be a key process in explaining the stronger temperature trends at low altitudes.

The solsticial pause on Mars: 1. A planetary wave reanalysis

Large-scale planetary waves are diagnosed from an analysis of profiles retrieved from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft during its scientific mapping phase. The analysis is conducted by assimilating thermal profiles and total dust opacity retrievals into a Mars global circulation model. Transient waves are largest throughout the northern hemisphere autumn, winter and spring period and almost absent during the summer. The southern hemisphere exhibits generally weaker transient wave behaviour. A striking feature of the low-altitude transient waves in the analysis is that they show a broad subsidiary minimum in amplitude centred on the winter solstice, a period when the thermal contrast between the summer hemisphere and the winter pole is strongest and baroclinic wave activity might be expected to be strong. This behaviour, here called the ‘solsticial pause,’ is present in every year of the analysis. This strong pause is under-represented in many independent model experiments, which tend to produce relatively uniform baroclinic wave activity throughout the winter. This paper documents and diagnoses the transient wave solsticial pause found in the analysis; a companion paper investigates the origin of the phenomenon in a series of model experiments.

A multi-instrument comparison of integrated water vapour measurements at a high latitude site

We compare measurements of integrated water vapour (IWV) over a subarctic site (Kiruna, Northern Sweden) from five different sensors and retrieval methods: Radiosondes, Global Positioning System (GPS), ground-based Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, ground-based microwave radiometer, and satellite-based microwave radiometer (AMSU-B). Additionally, we compare also to ERA-Interim model reanalysis data. GPS-based IWV data have the highest temporal coverage and resolution and are chosen as reference data set. All datasets agree reasonably well, but the ground-based microwave instrument only if the data are cloud-filtered. We also address two issues that are general for such intercomparison studies, the impact of different lower altitude limits for the IWV integration, and the impact of representativeness error. We develop methods for correcting for the former, and estimating the random error contribution of the latter. A literature survey reveals that reported systematic differences between different techniques are study-dependent and show no overall consistent pattern. Further improving the absolute accuracy of IWV measurements and providing climate-quality time series therefore remain challenging problems.

Methane cross-validation between three Fourier Transform Spectrometers: SCISAT ACE-FTS, GOSAT TANSO-FTS, and ground-based FTS measurements in the Canadian high Arctic

We present cross-validation of remote sensing measurements of methane profiles in the Canadian high Arctic. Accurate and precise measurements of methane are essential to understand quantitatively its role in the climate system and in global change. Here, we show a cross-validation between three datasets: two from spaceborne instruments and one from a ground-based instrument. All are Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTSs). We consider the Canadian SCISAT Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE)-FTS, a solar occultation infrared spectrometer operating since 2004, and the thermal infrared band of the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation (TANSO)-FTS, a nadir/off-nadir scanning FTS instrument operating at solar and terrestrial infrared wavelengths, since 2009. The ground-based instrument is a Bruker 125HR Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, measuring mid-infrared solar absorption spectra at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) Ridge Lab at Eureka, Nunavut (80° N, 86° W) since 2006. For each pair of instruments, measurements are collocated within 500 km and 24 h. An additional criterion based on potential vorticity values was found not to significantly affect differences between measurements. Profiles are regridded to a common vertical grid for each comparison set. To account for differing vertical resolutions, ACE-FTS measurements are smoothed to the resolution of either PEARL-FTS or TANSO-FTS, and PEARL-FTS measurements are smoothed to the TANSO-FTS resolution. Differences for each pair are examined in terms of profile and partial columns. During the period considered, the number of collocations for each pair is large enough to obtain a good sample size (from several hundred to tens of thousands depending on pair and configuration). Considering full profiles, the degrees of freedom for signal (DOFS) are between 0.2 and 0.7 for TANSO-FTS and between 1.5 and 3 for PEARL-FTS, while ACE-FTS has considerably more information (roughly 1° of freedom per altitude level). We take partial columns between roughly 5 and 30 km for the ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS comparison, and between 5 and 10 km for the other pairs. The DOFS for the partial columns are between 1.2 and 2 for PEARL-FTS collocated with ACE-FTS, between 0.1 and 0.5 for PEARL-FTS collocated with TANSO-FTS or for TANSO-FTS collocated with either other instrument, while ACE-FTS has much higher information content. For all pairs, the partial column differences are within ± 3 × 1022 molecules cm−2. Expressed as median ± median absolute deviation (expressed in absolute or relative terms), these differences are 0.11 ± 9.60 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.012 ± 1.018 %) for TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS, −2.6 ± 2.6 × 10^21 molecules cm−2 (−1.6 ± 1.6 %) for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS, and 7.4 ± 6.0 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.78 ± 0.64 %) for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS. The differences for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS and TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS partial columns decrease significantly as a function of PEARL partial columns, whereas the range of partial column values for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS collocations is too small to draw any conclusion on its dependence on ACE-FTS partial columns.

Global climatology of surface water temperatures of large lakes by remote sensing

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) of 246 globally distributed large lakes were derived from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSR) for the period 1991–2011. The climatological cycles of mean LSWT derived from these data quantify on a global scale the responses of large lakes' surface temperatures to the annual cycle of forcing by solar radiation and the ambient meteorological conditions. LSWT cycles reflect the twice annual peak in net solar radiation for lakes between 1°S to 12°N. For lakes without a lake-mean seasonal ice cover, LSWT extremes exceed air temperatures by 0.5–1.7 °C for maximum and 0.7–1.9 °C for minimum temperature. The summer maximum LSWTs of lakes from 25°S to 35°N show a linear decrease with increasing altitude; −3.76 ± 0.17 °C km−1 (inline image = 0.95), marginally lower than the corresponding air temperature decrease with altitude −4.15 ± 0.24 °C km−1 (inline image = 0.95). Lake altitude of tropical lakes account for 0.78–0.83 (inline image) of the variation in the March to June LSWT–air temperature differences, with differences decreasing by 1.9 °C as the altitude increases from 500 to 1800 m above sea level (a.s.l.) We define an ‘open water phase’ as the length of time the lake-mean LSWT remains above 4 °C. There is a strong global correlation between the start and end of the lake-mean open water phase and the spring and fall 0 °C air temperature transition days, (inline image = 0.74 and 0.80, respectively), allowing for a good estimation of timing and length of the open water phase of lakes without LSWT observations. Lake depth, lake altitude and distance from coast further explain some of the inter-lake variation in the start and end of the open water phase.

Contrasting fast precipitation responses to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone forcing

The precipitation response to radiative forcing (RF) can be decomposed into a fast precipitation response (FPR), which depends on the atmospheric component of RF, and a slow response, which depends on surface temperature change. We present the first detailed climate model study of the FPR due to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes. The FPR depends strongly on the altitude of ozone change. Increases below about 3 km cause a positive FPR; increases above cause a negative FPR. The FPR due to stratospheric ozone change is, per unit RF, about 3 times larger than that due to tropospheric ozone. As historical ozone trends in the troposphere and stratosphere are opposite in sign, so too are the FPRs. Simple climate model calculations of the time-dependent total (fast and slow) precipitation change, indicate that ozone's contribution to precipitation change in 2011, compared to 1765, could exceed 50% of that due to CO2 change.

Coordinated weather balloon solar radiation measurements during a solar eclipse

Solar eclipses provide a rapidly changing solar radiation environment. These changes can be studied using simple photodiode sensors, if the radiation reaching the sensors is unaffected by cloud.Transporting the sensors aloft using standard meteorological instrument packages modified to carry extra sensors, provides one promising but hitherto unexploited possibility for making solar eclipse radiation measurements. For the 20th March 2015 solar eclipse, a coordinated campaign of balloon-carried solar radiation measurements was undertaken from Reading (51.44N, 0.94W), Lerwick (60.15N, 1.13W) and Reykjavik (64.13N, 21.90W), straddling the path of the eclipse.The balloons reached sufficient altitude at the eclipse time for eclipse-induced variations in solar radiation and solar limb darkening to be measured above cloud. Because the sensor platforms were free to swing, techniques have been evaluated to correct the measurements for their changing orientation. In the swing-averaged technique, the mean value across a set of swings was used to approximate the radiation falling on a horizontal surface; in the swing-maximum technique, the direct beam was estimated by assuming the sensing surface becomes normal to the solar beam direction at a maximum swing. Both approaches, essentially independent,give values that agree with theoretical expectations for the eclipse-induced radiation changes.

The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas (PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation.

Sensitivity of OMI SO2 measurements to variable eruptive behaviour at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Since 2004, the satellite-borne Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI) has observed sulphur dioxide (SO2) plumes during both quiescence and effusive eruptive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. On average, OMI detected a SO2 plume 4-6 times more frequently during effusive periods than during quiescence in the 2008-2010 period. The increased ability of OMI to detect SO2 during eruptive periods is mainly due to an increase in plume altitude rather than a higher SO2 emission rate. Three styles of eruptive activity cause thermal lofting of gases (Vulcanian explosions; pyroclastic flows; a hot lava dome) and the resultant plume altitudes are estimated from observations and models. Most lofting plumes from Soufrière Hills are derived from hot domes and pyroclastic flows. Although Vulcanian explosions produced the largest plumes, some produced only negligible SO2 signals detected by OMI. OMI is most valuable for monitoring purposes at this volcano during periods of lava dome growth and during explosive activity.

Cloud information content analysis of multi-angular measurements in the oxygen A-band: application to 3MI and MSPI

The vertical distribution of cloud cover has a significant impact on a large number of meteorological and climatic processes. Cloud top altitude and cloud geometrical thickness are then essential. Previous studies established the possibility of retrieving those parameters from multi-angular oxygen A-band measurements. Here we perform a study and comparison of the performances of future instruments. The 3MI (Multi-angle, Multi-channel and Multi-polarization Imager) instrument developed by EUMETSAT, which is an extension of the POLDER/PARASOL instrument, and MSPI (Multi-angles Spectro-Polarimetric Imager) develoloped by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory will measure total and polarized light reflected by the Earth's atmosphere–surface system in several spectral bands (from UV to SWIR) and several viewing geometries. Those instruments should provide opportunities to observe the links between the cloud structures and the anisotropy of the reflected solar radiation into space. Specific algorithms will need be developed in order to take advantage of the new capabilities of this instrument. However, prior to this effort, we need to understand, through a theoretical Shannon information content analysis, the limits and advantages of these new instruments for retrieving liquid and ice cloud properties, and especially, in this study, the amount of information coming from the A-Band channel on the cloud top altitude (CTOP) and geometrical thickness (CGT). We compare the information content of 3MI A-Band in two configurations and that of MSPI. Quantitative information content estimates show that the retrieval of CTOP with a high accuracy is possible in almost all cases investigated. The retrieval of CGT seems less easy but possible for optically thick clouds above a black surface, at least when CGT > 1–2 km.

Sensitivity of resolved and parameterized surface drag to changes in resolution and parameterization

The relative contribution of resolved and parameterized surface drag towards balancing the atmospheric angular momentum flux convergence (AMFC), and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution and parameterization, are investigated in an atmospheric model. This sensitivity can be difficult to elucidate in free-running climate models, in which the AMFC varies with changing climatologies and, as a result, the relative contributions of surface terms balancing the AMFC also vary. While the sensitivity question has previously been addressed using short-range forecasts, we demonstrate that a nudging framework is an effective method for constraining the AMFC. The Met Office Unified Model is integrated at three horizontal resolutions ranging from 130 km (N96) to 25 km (N512) while relaxing the model’s wind and temperature fields towards the ERAinterim reanalysis within the altitude regions of maximum AMFC. This method is validated against short range forecasts and good agreement is found. These experiments are then used to assess the fidelity of the exchange between parameterized and resolved orographic torques with changes in horizontal resolution. Although the parameterized orographic torque reduces substantially with increasing horizontal resolution, there is little change in resolved orographic torque over 20N to 50N. The tendencies produced by the nudging routine indicate that the additional drag at lower horizontal resolution is excessive. When parameterized orographic blocking is removed at the coarsest of these resolutions, there is a lack of compensation, and even compensation of the opposite sense, by the boundary layer and resolved torques which is particularly pronounced over 20N to 50N. This study demonstrates that there is strong sensitivity in the behaviour of the resolved and parameterized surface drag over this region.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.