Past, present and future change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Observations and numerical modelling experiments provide evidence for links between variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global climate patterns. Reduction in the strength of the overturning circulation is thought to have played a key role in rapid climate change in the past and may have the potential to significantly influence climate change in the future, as noted in the last two IPCC assessment reports (2001, 2007). Both IPCC reports also highlighted the significant uncertainties that exist regarding the future behaviour of the AMOC under global warming. Model results suggest that changes in the AMOC can impact surface air temperature, precipitation patterns and sea level, particularly in areas bordering the North Atlantic, thus affecting human populations. Here current understanding of past, present and future change in the AMOC and the effects of such changes on climate are reviewed. The focus is on observations of the AMOC, how the AMOC influences climate and in what way the AMOC is likely to change over the next few decades and the 21st 34 century. The potential for decadal prediction of the AMOC is also discussed. Finally, the outstanding challenges and possible future directions for AMOC research are outlined.

Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength.

Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling

A poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks in response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing has been diagnosed in climate model simulations1, 2. Explanations of this effect have focused on atmospheric dynamics3, 4, 5, 6, 7. However, in contrast to storm tracks in other regions, the North Atlantic storm track responds by strengthening and extending farther east, in particular on its southern flank8. These adjustments are associated with an intensification and extension of the eddy-driven jet towards western Europe9 and are expected to have considerable societal impacts related to a rise in storminess in Europe10, 11, 12. Here, we apply a regression analysis to an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations to show that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere shapes the distinct storm-track response to greenhouse-gas forcing in the North Atlantic region. In the ensemble of simulations we analyse, at least half of the differences between the storm-track responses of different models are associated with uncertainties in ocean circulation changes. We compare the fully coupled simulations with both the associated slab model simulations and an ocean-forced experiment with one climate model to establish causality. We conclude that uncertainties in the response of the North Atlantic storm track to anthropogenic emissions could be reduced through tighter constraints on the future ocean circulation.

Climate variability-observations, reconstructions, and model simulations for the Atlantic-European and Alpine region from 1500-2100 AD

A detailed analysis is undertaken of the Atlantic-European climate using data from 500-year-long proxy-based climate reconstructions, a long climate simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing, as well as two global and one regional climate change scenarios. The observed and simulated interannual variability and teleconnectivity are compared and interpreted in order to improve the understanding of natural climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales for the late Holocene. The focus is set on the Atlantic-European and Alpine regions during the winter and summer seasons, using temperature, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The climate reconstruction shows pronounced interdecadal variations that appear to “lock” the atmospheric circulation in quasi-steady long-term patterns over multi-decadal periods controlling at least part of the temperature and precipitation variability. Different circulation patterns are persistent over several decades for the period 1500 to 1900. The 500-year-long simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing shows some substantial differences, with a more unsteady teleconnectivity behaviour. Two global scenario simulations indicate a transition towards more stable teleconnectivity for the next 100 years. Time series of reconstructed and simulated temperature and precipitation over the Alpine region show comparatively small changes in interannual variability within the time frame considered, with the exception of the summer season, where a substantial increase in interannual variability is simulated by regional climate models.

Mechanisms linking volcanic aerosols to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

This study examines the sensitivity of the climate system to volcanic aerosol forcing in the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The main test case was based on the 1880s when there were several volcanic eruptions, the well-known Krakatau being the largest. These eruptions increased atmospheric aerosol concentrations and induced a period of global cooling surface temperatures. In this study, an ensemble of HadCM3 has been integrated with the standard set of radiative forcings and aerosols from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report simulations, from 1860 to present. A second ensemble removes the volcanic aerosols from 1880 to 1899. The all-forcings ensemble shows an attributable 1.2-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 45°N—with a 0.04-PW increase in meridional heat transport at 40°N and increased northern Atlantic SSTs—starting around 1894, approximately 11 years after the first eruption, and lasting a further 10 years at least. The mechanisms responsible are traced to the Arctic, with suppression of the global water cycle (high-latitude precipitation), which leads to an increase in upper-level Arctic and Greenland Sea salinities. This then leads to increased convection in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas, enhanced Denmark Strait overflows, and AMOC changes with density anomalies traceable southward along the western Atlantic boundary. The authors investigate whether a similar response to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 could still be ongoing, but do not find strong evidence.

The dependence of contrail formation on the weather pattern and altitude in the North Atlantic

Aircraft flying through cold ice-supersaturated air produce persistent contrails which contribute to the climate impact of aviation. Here, we demonstrate the importance of the weather situation, together with the route and altitude of the aircraft through this, on estimating contrail coverage. The results have implications for determining the climate impact of contrails as well as potential mitigation strategies. Twenty-one years of re-analysis data are used to produce a climatological assessment of conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation between 200 and 300 hPa over the north Atlantic in winter. The seasonal-mean frequency of cold ice-supersaturated regions is highest near 300 hPa, and decreases with altitude. The frequency of occurrence of ice-supersaturated regions varies with large-scale weather pattern; the most common locations are over Greenland, on the southern side of the jet stream and around the northern edge of high pressure ridges. Assuming aircraft take a great circle route, as opposed to a more realistic time-optimal route, is likely to lead to an error in the estimated contrail coverage, which can exceed 50% for westbound north Atlantic flights. The probability of contrail formation can increase or decrease with height, depending on the weather pattern, indicating that the generic suggestion that flying higher leads to fewer contrails is not robust.

Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s

In the mid 1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) warmed rapidly, with sea surface temperatures (SST) increasing by 1°C in just a few years. By examining initialized hindcasts made with the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), it is shown that the warming could have been predicted. Conversely, hindcasts that only consider changes in radiative forcings are not able to capture the rapid warming. Heat budget analysis shows that the success of the DePreSys hindcasts is due to the initialization of anomalously strong northward ocean heat transport. Furthermore, it is found that initializing a strong Atlantic circulation, and in particular a strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is key for successful predictions. Finally, we show that DePreSys is able to predict significant changes in SST and other surface climate variables related to the North Atlantic warming.

Comment on “Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N”

Matei et al. (Reports, 6 January 2012, p. 76) claim to show skillful multiyear predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, these claims are not justified, primarily because the predictions of AMOC transport do not outperform simple reference forecasts based on climatological annual cycles. Accordingly, there is no justification for the “confident” prediction of a stable AMOC through 2014.

Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s

European climate exhibits variability on a wide range of timescales. Understanding the nature and drivers of this variability is an essential step in developing robust climate predictions and risk assessments. The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales1, but the importance of this influence in recent decades has been unclear, partly because of difficulties in separating the influence of the Atlantic Ocean from other contributions, for example, from the tropical Pacific Ocean and the stratosphere. Here we analyse four data sets derived from observations to show that, during the 1990s, there was a substantial shift in European climate towards a pattern characterized by anomalously wet summers in northern Europe, and hot, dry, summers in southern Europe, with related shifts in spring and autumn. These changes in climate coincided with a substantial warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, towards a state last seen in the 1950s. The patterns of European climate change in the 1990s are consistent with earlier changes attributed to the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean, and provide compelling evidence that the Atlantic Ocean was the key driver. Our results suggest that the recent pattern of anomalies in European climate will persist as long as the North Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm.

Importance of density-compensated temperature change for deep North Atlantic Ocean heat uptake

The efficiency with which the oceans take up heat has a significant influence on the rate of global warming. Warming of the ocean above 700 m over the past few decades has been well documented. However, most of the ocean lies below 700 m. Here we analyse observations of heat uptake into the deep North Atlantic. We find that the extratropical North Atlantic as a whole warmed by 1.45±0.5×1022 J between 1955 and 2005, but Lower North Atlantic Deep Water cooled, most likely as an adjustment from an early twentieth-century warm period. In contrast, the heat content of Upper North Atlantic Deep Water exhibited strong decadal variability. We demonstrate and quantify the importance of density-compensated temperature anomalies for long-term heat uptake into the deep North Atlantic. These anomalies form in the subpolar gyre and propagate equatorwards. High salinity in the subpolar gyre is a key requirement for this mechanism. In the past 50 years, suitable conditions have occurred only twice: first during the 1960s and again during the past decade. We conclude that heat uptake through density-compensated temperature anomalies will contribute to deep ocean heat uptake in the near term. In the longer term, the importance of this mechanism will be determined by competition between the multiple processes that influence subpolar gyre salinity in a changing climate.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.

A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is investigated in a millennial control simulation with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model. An oscillatory mode with approximately 60 years period and characteristics similar to observations is identified with the aid of three-dimensional temperature and salinity joint empirical orthogonal function analysis. The mode explains 30 % of variability on centennial and shorter timescales in the upper 2,000 m of the North Atlantic. It is associated with changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of ±1–2 Sv and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of ±0.2 °C. AMV in KCM results from an out-of-phase interaction between horizontal and vertical ocean circulation, coupled through Irminger Sea convection. Wintertime convection in this region is mainly controlled by salinity anomalies transported by the Subpolar Gyre (SPG). Increased (decreased) dense water formation in this region leads to a stronger (weaker) AMOC after 15 years, and this in turn leads to a weaker (stronger) SPG after another 15 years. The key role of salinity variations in the subpolar North Atlantic for AMV is confirmed in a 1,000 year long simulation with salinity restored to model climatology: No low frequency variations in convection are simulated, and the 60 year mode of variability is absent.

Atlantic meridional heat transports in two ocean reanalyes evaluated against the RAPID array

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in two versions of the NEMO ¼° global ocean model has been compared with the RAPID transport array at 26oN. Both model versions reproduce the mean MOC strength well although the Florida Straits flows differ because the pathway of the Gulf Stream is not strongly constrained at this resolution. Both models however have a mean meridional heat transport of 1.07PW, much lower than the 1.35PW from RAPID observations in Apr04-Oct07. Much of the heat transport discrepancy is due to lower transports in summer across the MidOcean (Bahamas-Africa) section, due to stronger southward geostrophic flows in the top 100m where the water is warmest. Seasonal thermocline changes increase temperature differences across the basin driving stronger geostrophic shear, but this effect is much weaker in the top 100m of the RAPID velocity data. The effect accounts for a reduction of 1.1Sv in MOC and 0.1PW in heat transports. The rest of the discrepancy comes from lower Ekman transports from using ERAInterim winds instead of QuikSCAT, a smaller zonally-varying “Eddy” heat transport component, estimated from repeat XBT sections in the observations, and the southward throughflow in the model. Other differences in depth structure of the model MOC and RAPID observations are described but have much less impact on heat transports.

Diabatic processes modifying potential vorticity in a North Atlantic cyclone

Potential vorticity (PV) succinctly describes the evolution of large-scale atmospheric flow because of its material conservation and invertibility properties. However, diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones can modify PV and influence both mesoscale weather and the evolution of the synoptic-scale wave pattern. In this investigation, modification of PV by diabatic processes is diagnosed in a Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulation of a North Atlantic cyclone using a set of PV tracers. The structure of diabatic PV within the extratropical cyclone is investigated and linked to the processes responsible for it. On the mesoscale, a tripole of diabatic PV is generated across the tropopause fold extending down to the cold front. The structure results from a dipole in heating across the frontal interface due to condensation in the warm conveyor belt flanking the upper side of the fold and evaporation of precipitation in the dry intrusion and below. On isentropic surfaces intersecting the tropopause, positive diabatic PV is generated on the stratospheric side, while negative diabatic PV is generated on the tropospheric side. The stratospheric diabatic PV is generated primarily by long-wave cooling which peaks at the tropopause itself due to the sharp gradient in humidity there. The tropospheric diabatic PV originates locally from the long-wave radiation and non-locally by advection out of the top of heating associated with the large-scale cloud, convection and boundary layer schemes. In most locations there is no diabatic modification of PV at the tropopause itself but diabatic PV anomalies would influence the tropopause indirectly through the winds they induce and subsequent advection. The consequences of this diabatic PV dipole for the evolution of synoptic-scale wave patterns are discussed.