The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in buildings and transport

This paper explores the possible evolution of UK electricity demand as we move along three potential transition pathways to a low carbon economy in 2050.The shift away from fossil fuels through the electrification of demand is discussed, particularly through the uptake of heat pumps and electric vehicles in the domestic and passenger transport sectors. Developments in the way people and institutions may use energy along each of the pathways are also considered and provide a rationale for the quantification of future annual electricity demands in various broad sectors. The paper then presents detailed modelling of hourly balancing of these demands in the context of potential low carbon generation mixes associated with the three pathways. In all cases, hourly balancing is shown to be a significant challenge. To minimise the need for conventional generation to operate with very low capacity factors, a variety of demand side participation measures are modelled and shown to provide significant benefits. Lastly, projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK and the imports of fossil fuels to the UK for each of the three pathways are presented.

Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon

The vagaries of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall on short and long timescales impact the lives of more than one billion people. Understanding how the monsoon will change in the face of global warming is a challenge for climate science, not least because our state-of-the-art general circulation models still have difficulty simulating the regional distribution of monsoon rainfall. However, we are beginning to understand more about processes driving the monsoon, its seasonal cycle and modes of variability. This gives us the hope that we can build better models and ultimately reduce the uncertainty in our projections of future monsoon rainfall.

Energy overview of Botswana: generation and consumption

Botswana has a basic need to explore its energy concept, this being its energy sources, generation and percentage of the population with access to electricity. At present, Botswana generates electricity from coal, which supplies about 29% (on average) of the country’s demand. The other 71% is imported mainly from South Africa (Eskom). Consequently, the dependence of Botswana on imports posses threats to the security of its energy supply. As a result, there is the need to understand the bases for a possible generation expansion that would substantiate existing documentation. In view of this need, this study investigates the existing energy sources as well as energy consumption and production levels in Botswana. The study would be further developed by making projections of the energy demand up until the year 2020. The key techniques that were used include; literature review, questionnaire survey and an empirical study. The results presented indicated that, current dependable operation capacity (i.e. 100MW) should be increased to 2,595 MW or more assuming 85% plant efficiency. This would then be able to meet the growing demand for energy use. In addition, the installed capacity would be able to support commercial and mining activities for the growth of the economy.

Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change

Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in terms of transient climate response, ocean heat uptake efficiency and expansion efficiency of heat. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have statistically indistinguishable distributions in these parameters. The ocean heat uptake efficiency varies by a factor of two across the models, explaining about 50% of the spread in ocean heat uptake in CMIP5 models with CO2 increasing at 1%/year. It correlates with the ocean global-mean vertical profiles both of temperature and of temperature change, and comparison with observations suggests the models may overestimate ocean heat uptake and underestimate surface warming, because their stratification is too weak. The models agree on the location of maxima of shallow ocean heat uptake (above 700 m) in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and on deep ocean heat uptake (below 2000 m) in areas of the Southern Ocean, in some places amounting to 40% of the top-to-bottom integral in the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario. The Southern Ocean dominates global ocean heat uptake; consequently the eddy-induced thickness diffusivity parameter, which is particularly influential in the Southern Ocean, correlates with the ocean heat uptake efficiency. The thermal expansion produced by ocean heat uptake is 0.12 m YJ−1, with an uncertainty of about 10% (1 YJ = 1024 J).

The effect of climate change on the variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex

With extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex being a key link for stratosphere–troposphere influences, its evolution into the twenty-first century is important for projections of changing surface climate in response to greenhouse gases. Variability of the stratospheric vortex is examined using a state-of-the-art climate model and a suite of specifically developed vortex diagnostics. The model has a fully coupled ocean and a fully resolved stratosphere. Analysis of the standard stratospheric zonal mean wind diagnostic shows no significant increase over the twenty-first century in the number of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) from its historical value of 0.7 events per decade, although the monthly distribution of SSWs does vary, with events becoming more evenly dispersed throughout the winter. However, further analyses using geometric-based vortex diagnostics show that the vortex mean state becomes weaker, and the vortex centroid is climatologically more equatorward by up to 2.5°, especially during early winter. The results using these diagnostics not only characterize the vortex structure and evolution but also emphasize the need for vortex-centric diagnostics over zonally averaged measures. Finally, vortex variability is subdivided into wave-1 (displaced) and -2 (split) components, and it is implied that vortex displacement events increase in frequency under climate change, whereas little change is observed in splitting events.

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.

Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6

The importance of aerosol emissions for near term climate projections is investigated by analysing simulations with the HadGEM2-ES model under two different emissions scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. It is shown that the near term warming projected under RCP2.6 is greater than under RCP4.5, even though the greenhouse gas forcing is lower. Rapid and substantial reductions in sulphate aerosol emissions due to a reduction of coal burning in RCP2.6 lead to a reduction in the negative shortwave forcing due to aerosol direct and indirect effects. Indirect effects play an important role over the northern hemisphere oceans, especially the subtropical northeastern Pacific where an anomaly of 5-10\,Wm$^{-2}$ develops. The pattern of surface temperature change is consistent with the expected response to this surface radiation anomaly, whilst also exhibiting features that reflect redistribution of energy, and feedbacks, within the climate system. These results demonstrate the importance of aerosol emissions as a key source of uncertainty in near term projections of global and regional climate.

Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: II. Change

Data analysis based on station observations reveals that many meteorological variables averaged over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are closely correlated, and their trends during the past decades are well correlated with the rainfall trend of the Asian summer monsoon. However, such correlation does not necessarily imply causality. Further diagnosis confirms the existence of a weakening trend in TP thermal forcing, characterized by weakened surface sensible heat flux in spring and summer during the past decades. This weakening trend is associated with decreasing summer precipitation over northern South Asia and North China and increasing precipitation over northwestern China, South China, and Korea. An atmospheric general circulation model, the HadAM3, is employed to elucidate the causality between the weakening TP forcing and the change in the Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Results demonstrate that a weakening in surface sensible heating over the TP results in reduced summer precipitation in the plateau region and a reduction in the associated latent heat release in summer. These changes in turn result in the weakening of the near-surface cyclonic circulation surrounding the plateau and the subtropical anticyclone over the subtropical western North Pacific, similar to the results obtained from the idealized TP experiment in Part I of this study. The southerly that normally dominates East Asia, ranging from the South China Sea to North China, weakens, resulting in a weaker equilibrated Sverdrup balance between positive vorticity generation and latent heat release. Consequently, the convergence of water vapor transport is confined to South China, forming a unique anomaly pattern in monsoon rainfall, the so-called “south wet and north dry.” Because the weakening trend in TP thermal forcing is associated with global warming, the present results provide an effective means for assessing projections of regional climate over Asia in the context of global warming.

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures1. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain1, 2, 3, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions9, 10, 11. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 °C.

A probabilistic analysis of the future potential of evaporative cooling systems in a temperate climate

The probabilistic projections of climate change for the United Kingdom (UK Climate Impacts Programme) show a trend towards hotter and drier summers. This suggests an expected increase in cooling demand for buildings – a conflicting requirement to reducing building energy needs and related CO2 emissions. Though passive design is used to reduce thermal loads of a building, a supplementary cooling system is often necessary. For such mixed-mode strategies, indirect evaporative cooling is investigated as a low energy option in the context of a warmer and drier UK climate. Analysis of the climate projections shows an increase in wet-bulb depression; providing a good indication of the cooling potential of an evaporative cooler. Modelling a mixed-mode building at two different locations, showed such a building was capable of maintaining adequate thermal comfort in future probable climates. Comparing the control climate to the scenario climate, an increase in the median of evaporative cooling load is evident. The shift is greater for London than for Glasgow with a respective 71.6% and 3.3% increase in the median annual cooling load. The study shows evaporative cooling should continue to function as an effective low-energy cooling technique in future, warming climates.

4-Hydroxynonenal, an endogenous aldehyde, causes pain and neurogenic inflammation through activation of the irritant receptor TRPA1

TRPA1 is an excitatory ion channel expressed by a subpopulation of primary afferent somatosensory neurons that contain substance P and calcitonin gene-related peptide. Environmental irritants such as mustard oil, allicin, and acrolein activate TRPA1, causing acute pain, neuropeptide release, and neurogenic inflammation. Genetic studies indicate that TRPA1 is also activated downstream of one or more proalgesic agents that stimulate phospholipase C signaling pathways, thereby implicating this channel in peripheral mechanisms controlling pain hypersensitivity. However, it is not known whether tissue injury also produces endogenous proalgesic factors that activate TRPA1 directly to augment inflammatory pain. Here, we report that recombinant or native TRPA1 channels are activated by 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (HNE), an endogenous alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehyde that is produced when reactive oxygen species peroxidate membrane phospholipids in response to tissue injury, inflammation, and oxidative stress. HNE provokes release of substance P and calcitonin gene-related peptide from central (spinal cord) and peripheral (esophagus) nerve endings, resulting in neurogenic plasma protein extravasation in peripheral tissues. Moreover, injection of HNE into the rodent hind paw elicits pain-related behaviors that are inhibited by TRPA1 antagonists and absent in animals lacking functional TRPA1 channels. These findings demonstrate that HNE activates TRPA1 on nociceptive neurons to promote acute pain, neuropeptide release, and neurogenic inflammation. Our results also provide a mechanism-based rationale for developing novel analgesic or anti-inflammatory agents that target HNE production or TRPA1 activation.

Protease-activated receptor 2 sensitizes the transient receptor potential vanilloid 4 ion channel to cause mechanical hyperalgesia in mice

Exacerbated sensitivity to mechanical stimuli that are normally innocuous or mildly painful (mechanical allodynia and hyperalgesia) occurs during inflammation and underlies painful diseases. Proteases that are generated during inflammation and disease cleave protease-activated receptor 2 (PAR2) on afferent nerves to cause mechanical hyperalgesia in the skin and intestine by unknown mechanisms. We hypothesized that PAR2-mediated mechanical hyperalgesia requires sensitization of the ion channel transient receptor potential vanilloid 4 (TRPV4). Immunoreactive TRPV4 was coexpressed by rat dorsal root ganglia (DRG) neurons with PAR2, substance P (SP) and calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP), mediators of pain transmission. In PAR2-expressing cell lines that either naturally expressed TRPV4 (bronchial epithelial cells) or that were transfected to express TRPV4 (HEK cells), pretreatment with a PAR2 agonist enhanced Ca2+ and current responses to the TRPV4 agonists phorbol ester 4alpha-phorbol 12,13-didecanoate (4alphaPDD) and hypotonic solutions. PAR2-agonist similarly sensitized TRPV4 Ca2+ signals and currents in DRG neurons. Antagonists of phospholipase Cbeta and protein kinases A, C and D inhibited PAR2-induced sensitization of TRPV4 Ca2+ signals and currents. 4alphaPDD and hypotonic solutions stimulated SP and CGRP release from dorsal horn of rat spinal cord, and pretreatment with PAR2 agonist sensitized TRPV4-dependent peptide release. Intraplantar injection of PAR2 agonist caused mechanical hyperalgesia in mice and sensitized pain responses to the TRPV4 agonists 4alphaPDD and hypotonic solutions. Deletion of TRPV4 prevented PAR2 agonist-induced mechanical hyperalgesia and sensitization. This novel mechanism, by which PAR2 activates a second messenger to sensitize TRPV4-dependent release of nociceptive peptides and induce mechanical hyperalgesia, may underlie inflammatory hyperalgesia in diseases where proteases are activated and released.

Protease-activated receptor 2 sensitizes TRPV1 by protein kinase Cepsilon- and A-dependent mechanisms in rats and mice

Proteases that are released during inflammation and injury cleave protease-activated receptor 2 (PAR2) on primary afferent neurons to cause neurogenic inflammation and hyperalgesia. PAR2-induced thermal hyperalgesia depends on sensitization of transient receptor potential vanilloid receptor 1 (TRPV1), which is gated by capsaicin, protons and noxious heat. However, the signalling mechanisms by which PAR2 sensitizes TRPV1 are not fully characterized. Using immunofluorescence and confocal microscopy, we observed that PAR2 was colocalized with protein kinase (PK) Cepsilon and PKA in a subset of dorsal root ganglia neurons in rats, and that PAR2 agonists promoted translocation of PKCepsilon and PKA catalytic subunits from the cytosol to the plasma membrane of cultured neurons and HEK 293 cells. Subcellular fractionation and Western blotting confirmed this redistribution of kinases, which is indicative of activation. Although PAR2 couples to phospholipase Cbeta, leading to stimulation of PKC, we also observed that PAR2 agonists increased cAMP generation in neurons and HEK 293 cells, which would activate PKA. PAR2 agonists enhanced capsaicin-stimulated increases in [Ca2+]i and whole-cell currents in HEK 293 cells, indicating TRPV1 sensitization. The combined intraplantar injection of non-algesic doses of PAR2 agonist and capsaicin decreased the latency of paw withdrawal to radiant heat in mice, indicative of thermal hyperalgesia. Antagonists of PKCepsilon and PKA prevented sensitization of TRPV1 Ca2+ signals and currents in HEK 293 cells, and suppressed thermal hyperalgesia in mice. Thus, PAR2 activates PKCepsilon and PKA in sensory neurons, and thereby sensitizes TRPV1 to cause thermal hyperalgesia. These mechanisms may underlie inflammatory pain, where multiple proteases are generated and released.

Protease-activated receptor 2 sensitizes the capsaicin receptor transient receptor potential vanilloid receptor 1 to induce hyperalgesia

Inflammatory proteases (mast cell tryptase and trypsins) cleave protease-activated receptor 2 (PAR2) on spinal afferent neurons and cause persistent inflammation and hyperalgesia by unknown mechanisms. We determined whether transient receptor potential vanilloid receptor 1 (TRPV1), a cation channel activated by capsaicin, protons, and noxious heat, mediates PAR2-induced hyperalgesia. PAR2 was coexpressed with TRPV1 in small- to medium-diameter neurons of the dorsal root ganglia (DRG), as determined by immunofluorescence. PAR2 agonists increased intracellular [Ca2+] ([Ca2+]i) in these neurons in culture, and PAR2-responsive neurons also responded to the TRPV1 agonist capsaicin, confirming coexpression of PAR2 and TRPV1. PAR2 agonists potentiated capsaicin-induced increases in [Ca2+]i in TRPV1-transfected human embryonic kidney (HEK) cells and DRG neurons and potentiated capsaicin-induced currents in DRG neurons. Inhibitors of phospholipase C and protein kinase C (PKC) suppressed PAR2-induced sensitization of TRPV1-mediated changes in [Ca2+]i and TRPV1 currents. Activation of PAR2 or PKC induced phosphorylation of TRPV1 in HEK cells, suggesting a direct regulation of the channel. Intraplantar injection of a PAR2 agonist caused persistent thermal hyperalgesia that was prevented by antagonism or deletion of TRPV1. Coinjection of nonhyperalgesic doses of PAR2 agonist and capsaicin induced hyperalgesia that was inhibited by deletion of TRPV1 or antagonism of PKC. PAR2 activation also potentiated capsaicin-induced release of substance P and calcitonin gene-related peptide from superfused segments of the dorsal horn of the spinal cord, where they mediate hyperalgesia. We have identified a novel mechanism by which proteases that activate PAR2 sensitize TRPV1 through PKC. Antagonism of PAR2, TRPV1, or PKC may abrogate protease-induced thermal hyperalgesia.