Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets

This paper investigates whether bank integration measured by cross-border bank flows can capture the co-movements across housing markets in developed countries by using a spatial dynamic panel model. The transmission can occur through a global banking channel in which global banks intermediate wholesale funding to local banks. Changes in financial conditions are passed across borders through the banks’ balance-sheet exposure to credit, currency, maturity, and funding risks resulting in house price spillovers. While controlling for country-level and global factors, we find significant co-movement across housing markets of countries with proportionally high bank integration. Bank integration can better capture house price co-movements than other measures of economic integration. Once we account for bank exposure, other spatial linkages traditionally used to account for return co-movements across region – such as trade, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, geographic proximity, etc. – become insignificant. Moreover, we find that the co-movement across housing markets decreases for countries with less developed mortgage markets characterized by fixed mortgage rate contracts, low limits of loan-to-value ratios and no mortgage equity withdrawal.

Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles

This paper examines the degree of commonalities present in the cyclical behavior of the eight largest metropolitan housing markets in Australia. Using two techniques originally in the business cycle literature we consider the degree of synchronization present and secondly decompose the series’ into their permanent and cyclical components. Both empirical approaches reveal similar results. Sydney and Melbourne are closely related to each other and are relatively segmented from the smaller metropolitan areas. In contrast, there is substantial evidence of commonalities in the cyclical behavior of the remaining cities, especially those on the Eastern and Southern coasts of Australia.

Detecting defects in UK new-build housing: a learning perspective

House builders play a key role in controlling the quality of new homes in the UK. The UK house building sector is, however, currently facing pressures to expand supply as well as conform to tougher low carbon planning and Building Regulation requirements; primarily in the areas of sustainability. There is growing evidence that the pressure the UK house building industry is currently under may be eroding build quality and causing an increase in defects. It is found that the prevailing defect literature is limited to the causes, pathology and statistical analysis of defects (and failures). The literature does not extend to examine how house builders individually and collectively, in practice, collect and learn from defects experience in order to reduce the prevalence of defects in future homes. The theoretical lens for the research is organisational learning. This paper contributes to our understanding of organisational learning in construction through a synthesis of current literature. Further, a suitable organisational learning model is adopted. The paper concludes by reporting the research design of an ongoing collaborative action research project with the National House Building Council (NHBC), focused on developing a better understanding of house builders’ localised defects analysis procedures and learning processes.

Housing economics: a historical approach

This book develops a long-term economic perspective on macro and urban housing issues, from the Victorian era onwards. The historical perspective sheds light on modern problems, particularly concerning the key policy issues of housing supply, affordability, tenure, the distribution of migrant communities, mortgage markets and household mobility.

The housing market channel of monetary policy transmission in the Euro area

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of the housing market in the monetary policy transmission to consumption among euro area member states. It has been argued that the housing market in one country is then important when its mortgage market is well developed. The countries in the euro area follow unitary monetary policy, however, their housing and mortgage markets show some heterogeneity, which may lead to different policy effects on aggregate consumption through the housing market. Design/methodology/approach – The housing market can act as a channel of monetary policy shocks to household consumption through changes in house prices and residential investment – the housing market channel. We estimate vector autoregressive models for each country and conduct a counterfactual analysis in order to disentangle the housing market channel and assess its importance across the euro area member states. Findings – We find little evidence for heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission through house prices across the euro area countries. Housing market variations in the euro area seem to be better captured by changes in residential investment rather than by changes in house prices. As a result we do not find significantly large house price channels. For some of the countries however, we observe a monetary policy channel through residential investment. The existence of a housing channel may depend on institutional features of both the labour market or with institutional factors capturing the degree of household debt as is the LTV ratio. Originality/value – The study contributes to the existing literature by assessing whether a unitary monetary policy has a different impact on consumption across the euro area countries through their housing and mortgage markets. We disentangle monetary-policy-induced effects on consumption associated with variations on the housing markets due to either house price variations or residential investment changes. We show that the housing market can play a role in the monetary transmission mechanism even in countries with less developed mortgage markets through variations in residential investment.

Housing provision in 21st century Europe

European housing markets exhibited considerable volatility so far in the 21st century while affordability worsened for many. Boom-bust has had greater housing impacts than any specific housing policy, which illustrates the difficulty in policy terms of seeing housing in isolation and the central significance of interlinked relationships between housing, the economy and financial markets. Europe historically invented a powerful set of interventionist tools to alter housing circumstances but, as the overview of rental markets here indicates, today they have mixed success. Examples of what to avoid in policy are at least as common as exemplars.

Spatial housing economics: a survey

This introduction to the Virtual Special Issue surveys the development of spatial housing economics from its roots in neo-classical theory, through more recent developments in social interactions modelling, and touching on the role of institutions, path dependence and economic history. The survey also points to some of the more promising future directions for the subject that are beginning to appear in the literature. The survey covers elements hedonic models, spatial econometrics, neighbourhood models, housing market areas, housing supply, models of segregation, migration, housing tenure, sub-national house price modelling including the so-called ripple effect, and agent-based models. Possible future directions are set in the context of a selection of recent papers that have appeared in Urban Studies. Nevertheless, there are still important gaps in the literature that merit further attention, arising at least partly from emerging policy problems. These include more research on housing and biodiversity, the relationship between housing and civil unrest, the effects of changing age distributions - notably housing for the elderly - and the impact of different international institutional structures. Methodologically, developments in Big Data provide an exciting framework for future work.

Reducing defects through organizational learning within a Housing Association environment

Housing Associations (HAs) contribute circa 20% of the UK’s housing supply. HAs are however under increasing pressure as a result of funding cuts and rent reductions. Due to the increased pressure, a number of processes are currently being reviewed by HAs, especially how they manage and learn from defects. Learning from defects is considered a useful approach to achieving defect reduction within the UK housebuilding industry. This paper contributes to our understanding of how HAs learn from defects by undertaking an initial round table discussion with key HA stakeholders as part of an ongoing collaborative research project with the National House Building Council (NHBC) to better understand how house builders and HAs learn from defects to reduce their prevalence. The initial discussion shows that defect information runs through a number of groups, both internal and external of a HA during both the defects management process and organizational learning (OL) process. Furthermore, HAs are reliant on capturing and recording defect data as the foundation for the OL process. During the OL process defect data analysis is the primary enabler to recognizing a need for a change to organizational routines. When a need for change has been recognized, new options are typically pursued to design out defects via updates to a HAs Employer’s Requirements. Proposed solutions are selected by a review board and committed to organizational routine. After implementing a change, both structured and unstructured feedback is sought to establish the change’s success. The findings from the HA discussion demonstrates that OL can achieve defect reduction within the house building sector in the UK. The paper concludes by outlining a potential ‘learning from defects model’ for the housebuilding industry as well as describing future work.

Detecting defects in the UK new-build housing sector: a learning perspective

Rapid growth in the production of new homes in the UK is putting build quality under pressure as evidenced by an increase in the number of defects. Housing associations (HAs) contribute approximately 20% of the UK’s new housing supply. HAs are currently experiencing central government funding cuts and rental revenue reductions. As part of HAs’ quest to ramp up supply despite tight budget conditions, they are reviewing how they learn from defects. Learning from defects is argued as a means of reducing the persistent defect problem within the UK housebuilding industry, yet how HAs learn from defects is under-researched. The aim of this research is to better understand how HAs, in practice, learn from past defects to reduce the prevalence of defects in future new homes. The theoretical lens for this research is organizational learning. The results drawn from 12 HA case studies indicate that effective organizational learning has the potential to reduce defects within the housing sector. The results further identify that HAs are restricting their learning to focus primarily on reducing defects through product and system adaptations. Focusing on product and system adaptations alone suppresses HAs’ abilities to reduce defects in the future.

Are mortgage lenders guilty of the housing bubble? A UK perspective

Existing theoretical models of house prices and credit rely on continuous rationality of consumers, an assumption that has been frequently questioned in recent years. Meanwhile, empirical investigations of the relationship between prices and credit are often based on national-level data, which is then tested for structural breaks and asymmetric responses, usually with subsamples. Earlier author argues that local markets are structurally different from one another and so the coefficients of any estimated housing market model should vary from region to region. We investigate differences in the price–credit relationship for 12 regions of the UK. Markov-switching is introduced to capture asymmetric market behaviours and turning points. Results show that credit abundance had a large impact on house prices in Greater London and nearby regions alongside a strong positive feedback effect from past house price movements. This impact is even larger in Greater London and the South East of England when house prices are falling, which are the only instances where the credit effect is more prominent than the positive feedback effect. A strong positive feedback effect from past lending activity is also present in the loan dynamics. Furthermore, bubble probabilities extracted using a discrete Kalman filter neatly capture market turning points.