Global biomass burning: a synthesis and review of Holocene paleofire records and their controls.

We synthesize existing sedimentary charcoal records to reconstruct Holocene fire history at regional, continental and global scales. The reconstructions are compared with the two potential controls of burning at these broad scales – changes in climate and human activities – to assess their relative importance on trends in biomass burning. Here we consider several hypotheses that have been advanced to explain the Holocene record of fire, including climate, human activities and synergies between the two. Our results suggest that 1) episodes of high fire activity were relatively common in the early Holocene and were consistent with climate changes despite low global temperatures and low levels of biomass burning globally; 2) there is little evidence from the paleofire record to support the Early Anthropocene Hypothesis of human modification of the global carbon cycle; 3) there was a nearly-global increase in fire activity from 3 to 2 ka that is difficult to explain with either climate or humans, but the widespread and synchronous nature of the increase suggests at least a partial climate forcing; and 4) burning during the past century generally decreased but was spatially variable; it declined sharply in many areas, but there were also large increases (e.g., Australia and parts of Europe). Our analysis does not exclude an important role for human activities on global biomass burning during the Holocene, but instead provides evidence for a pervasive influence of climate across multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

A spectral view of nonlinear fluxes and stationary-transient interaction in the atmosphere

Nonlinear spectral transfers of kinetic energy and enstrophy, and stationary-transient interaction, are studied using global FGGE data for January 1979. It is found that the spectral transfers arise primarily from a combination, in roughly equal measure, of pure transient and mixed stationary-transient interactions. The pure transient interactions are associated with a transient eddy field which is approximately locally homogeneous and isotropic, and they appear to be consistently understood within the context of two-dimensional homogeneous turbulence. Theory based on spatial wale separation concepts suggests that the mixed interactions may be understood physically, to a first approximation, as a process of shear-induced spectral transfer of transient enstrophy along lines of constant zonal wavenumber. This essentially conservative enstrophy transfer generally involves highly nonlocal stationary-transient energy conversions. The observational analysis demonstrates that the shear-induced transient enstrophy transfer is mainly associated with intermediate-scale (zonal wavenumber m > 3) transients and is primarily to smaller (meridional) scales, so that the transient flow acts as a source of stationary energy. In quantitative terms, this transient-eddy rectification corresponds to a forcing timescale in the stationary energy budget which is of the same order of magnitude as most estimates of the damping timescale in simple stationary-wave models (5 to 15 days). Moreover, the nonlinear interactions involved are highly nonlocal and cover a wide range of transient scales of motion.

Multiscale geostatistical analysis of AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS global NDVI products

Global NDVI data are routinely derived from the AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS/Terra earth observation records for a range of applications from terrestrial vegetation monitoring to climate change modeling. This has led to a substantial interest in the harmonization of multisensor records. Most evaluations of the internal consistency and continuity of global multisensor NDVI products have focused on time-series harmonization in the spectral domain, often neglecting the spatial domain. We fill this void by applying variogram modeling (a) to evaluate the differences in spatial variability between 8-km AVHRR, 1-km SPOT-VGT, and 1-km, 500-m, and 250-m MODIS NDVI products over eight EOS (Earth Observing System) validation sites, and (b) to characterize the decay of spatial variability as a function of pixel size (i.e. data regularization) for spatially aggregated Landsat ETM+ NDVI products and a real multisensor dataset. First, we demonstrate that the conjunctive analysis of two variogram properties – the sill and the mean length scale metric – provides a robust assessment of the differences in spatial variability between multiscale NDVI products that are due to spatial (nominal pixel size, point spread function, and view angle) and non-spatial (sensor calibration, cloud clearing, atmospheric corrections, and length of multi-day compositing period) factors. Next, we show that as the nominal pixel size increases, the decay of spatial information content follows a logarithmic relationship with stronger fit value for the spatially aggregated NDVI products (R2 = 0.9321) than for the native-resolution AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS NDVI products (R2 = 0.5064). This relationship serves as a reference for evaluation of the differences in spatial variability and length scales in multiscale datasets at native or aggregated spatial resolutions. The outcomes of this study suggest that multisensor NDVI records cannot be integrated into a long-term data record without proper consideration of all factors affecting their spatial consistency. Hence, we propose an approach for selecting the spatial resolution, at which differences in spatial variability between NDVI products from multiple sensors are minimized. This approach provides practical guidance for the harmonization of long-term multisensor datasets.

Effects of spatial resolution in the simulation of daily and subdaily precipitation in the southwestern US

We evaluate the effects of spatial resolution on the ability of a regional climate model to reproduce observed extreme precipitation for a region in the Southwestern United States. A total of 73 National Climate Data Center observational sites spread throughout Arizona and New Mexico are compared with regional climate simulations at the spatial resolutions of 50 km and 10 km for a 31 year period from 1980 to 2010. We analyze mean, 3-hourly and 24-hourly extreme precipitation events using WRF regional model simulations driven by NCEP-2 reanalysis. The mean climatological spatial structure of precipitation in the Southwest is well represented by the 10 km resolution but missing in the coarse (50 km resolution) simulation. However, the fine grid has a larger positive bias in mean summer precipitation than the coarse-resolution grid. The large overestimation in the simulation is in part due to scale-dependent deficiencies in the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme that generate excessive precipitation and induce a slow eastward propagation of the moist convective summer systems in the high-resolution simulation. Despite this overestimation in the mean, the 10 km simulation captures individual extreme summer precipitation events better than the 50 km simulation. In winter, however, the two simulations appear to perform equally in simulating extremes.

Dietary levels of pure flavonoids improve spatial memory performance and increase hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor.

Evidence suggests that flavonoid-rich foods are capable of inducing improvements in memory and cognition in animals and humans. However, there is a lack of clarity concerning whether flavonoids are the causal agents in inducing such behavioral responses. Here we show that supplementation with pure anthocyanins or pure flavanols for 6 weeks, at levels similar to that found in blueberry (2% w/w), results in an enhancement of spatial memory in 18 month old rats. Pure flavanols and pure anthocyanins were observed to induce significant improvements in spatial working memory (p = 0.002 and p = 0.006 respectively), to a similar extent to that following blueberry supplementation (p = 0.002). These behavioral changes were paralleled by increases in hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor (R = 0.46, p<0.01), suggesting a common mechanism for the enhancement of memory. However, unlike protein levels of BDNF, the regional enhancement of BDNF mRNA expression in the hippocampus appeared to be predominantly enhanced by anthocyanins. Our data support the claim that flavonoids are likely causal agents in mediating the cognitive effects of flavonoid-rich foods.

Phenolic acid intake, delivered via moderate champagne wine consumption, improves spatial working memory via the modulation of hippocampal and cortical protein expression/activation.

Aims: While much data exist for the effects of flavonoid-rich foods on spatial memory in rodents, there are no such data for foods/beverages predominantly containing hydroxycinnamates and phenolic acids. To address this, we investigated the effects of moderate Champagne wine intake, which is rich in these components, on spatial memory and related mechanisms relative to the alcohol- and energy-matched controls. Results: In contrast to the isocaloric and alcohol-matched controls, supplementation with Champagne wine (1.78 ml/kg BW, alcohol 12.5% vol.) for 6 weeks led to an improvement in spatial working memory in aged rodents. Targeted protein arrays indicated that these behavioral effects were paralleled by the differential expression of a number of hippocampal and cortical proteins (relative to the isocaloric control group), including those involved in signal transduction, neuroplasticity, apoptosis, and cell cycle regulation. Western immunoblotting confirmed the differential modulation of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, cAMP response-element-binding protein (CREB), p38, dystrophin, 2',3'-cyclic-nucleotide 3'-phosphodiesterase, mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), and Bcl-xL in response to Champagne supplementation compared to the control drink, and the modulation of mTOR, Bcl-xL, and CREB in response to alcohol supplementation. Innovation: Our data suggest that smaller phenolics such as gallic acid, protocatechuic acid, tyrosol, caftaric acid, and caffeic acid, in addition to flavonoids, are capable of exerting improvements in spatial memory via the modulation in hippocampal signaling and protein expression. Conclusion: Changes in spatial working memory induced by the Champagne supplementation are linked to the effects of absorbed phenolics on cytoskeletal proteins, neurotrophin expression, and the effects of alcohol on the regulation of apoptotic events in the hippocampus and cortex. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 00, 000-000.

Late Quaternary fire regimes of Australasia

We have compiled 223 sedimentary charcoal records from Australasia in order to examine the temporal and spatial variability of fire regimes during the Late Quaternary. While some of these records cover more than a full glacial cycle, here we focus on the last 70,000 years when the number of individual records in the compilation allows more robust conclusions. On orbital time scales, fire in Australasia predominantly reflects climate, with colder periods characterized by less and warmer intervals by more biomass burning. The composite record for the region also shows considerable millennial-scale variability during the last glacial interval (73.5–14.7 ka). Within the limits of the dating uncertainties of individual records, the variability shown by the composite charcoal record is more similar to the form, number and timing of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles as observed in Greenland ice cores than to the variability expressed in the Antarctic ice-core record. The composite charcoal record suggests increased biomass burning in the Australasian region during Greenland Interstadials and reduced burning during Greenland Stadials. Millennial-scale variability is characteristic of the composite record of the sub-tropical high pressure belt during the past 21 ka, but the tropics show a somewhat simpler pattern of variability with major peaks in biomass burning around 15 ka and 8 ka. There is no distinct change in fire regime corresponding to the arrival of humans in Australia at 50 ± 10 ka and no correlation between archaeological evidence of increased human activity during the past 40 ka and the history of biomass burning. However, changes in biomass burning in the last 200 years may have been exacerbated or influenced by humans.

Observations of diurnal and spatial variability of radiative forcing by equatorial deep convective clouds

From geostationary satellite observations of equatorial Africa and the equatorial east Atlantic during May and June 2000 we explore the radiative forcing by deep convective cloud systems in these regions. Deep convective clouds (DCCs) are associated with a mean radiative forcing relative to non–deep convective areas of −39 W m−2 over the Atlantic Ocean and of +13 W m−2 over equatorial Africa (±10 W m−2 in both cases). We show that over land the timing of the daily cycle of convection relative to the daily cycle in solar illumination and surface temperature significantly affects the mean radiative forcing by DCCs. Displacement of the daily cycle of DCC coverage by 2 hours changes their overall radiative effect by ∼10 W m−2, with implications for the simulation of the radiative balance in this region. The timing of the minimum DCC cover over land, close to noon local time, means that the mean radiative forcing is nearly maximized.

A cross-calibration of GMS-5 thermal channels against ATSR-2

Motivated by the importance to weather and climate of the Indo-Pacific seas, we present a new calibration of the Visible Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer (VISSR) on the geostationary meteorological satellite, GMS-5. VISSR imagery has significant potential for exploring the dynamics of the ocean and air–sea interactions in this poorly characterized region, by virtue of the VISSR's surface temperature retrieval capability and hourly sampling. However, the calibration of the thermal imagery supplied by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) is inconsistent with the spectral characteristics of the channels, and published details of the JMA calibration procedure are scant. We use the well-characterized Along-Track Scanning Radiometer 2 (ATSR-2) as a reference, and determine calibration corrections for GMS-5 VISSR. We obtain more credible VISSR brightness temperatures and demonstrate sea surface temperature (SST) retrieval that validates well against in situ measurements (bias ∼0.3 and scatter ∼0.4 K). Comparison with a widely used sea surface temperature analysis shows that the GMS-5 VISSR SST fields capture important spatial structure, absent in the analysis.

Buyer–seller interaction in experimental spatial markets

We report results from experimental spatial markets with endogenous buyer location on a discrete version of Hotelling's linear city. Buyer locations favor more often the hypothesis of transportation cost minimization than that of strategic location aimed at increasing price competition between sellers. However, the latter of the two hypotheses receives systematic support too. Differentiation by seller-subjects is substantially less than the theory would predict for the specific framework used. Our results suggest that location strategies adopted by subjects can be seen as a rational process favoring conservative product design and spatial agglomeration of economic activities.

How large is congressional dependence in agriculture. Bayesian inference about ‘scale’ and ‘scope’ in measuring a spatial externality

The political economy literature on agriculture emphasizes influence over political outcomes via lobbying conduits in general, political action committee contributions in particular and the pervasive view that political preferences with respect to agricultural issues are inherently geographic. In this context, ‘interdependence’ in Congressional vote behaviour manifests itself in two dimensions. One dimension is the intensity by which neighboring vote propensities influence one another and the second is the geographic extent of voter influence. We estimate these facets of dependence using data on a Congressional vote on the 2001 Farm Bill using routine Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures and Bayesian model averaging, in particular. In so doing, we develop a novel procedure to examine both the reliability and the consequences of different model representations for measuring both the ‘scale’ and the ‘scope’ of spatial (geographic) co-relations in voting behaviour.

Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Multi-scale sensible heat fluxes in the urban environment from large aperture scintillometry and eddy covariance

Sensible heat fluxes (QH) are determined using scintillometry and eddy covariance over a suburban area. Two large aperture scintillometers provide spatially integrated fluxes across path lengths of 2.8 km and 5.5 km over Swindon, UK. The shorter scintillometer path spans newly built residential areas and has an approximate source area of 2-4 km2, whilst the long path extends from the rural outskirts to the town centre and has a source area of around 5-10 km2. These large-scale heat fluxes are compared with local-scale eddy covariance measurements. Clear seasonal trends are revealed by the long duration of this dataset and variability in monthly QH is related to the meteorological conditions. At shorter time scales the response of QH to solar radiation often gives rise to close agreement between the measurements, but during times of rapidly changing cloud cover spatial differences in the net radiation (Q*) coincide with greater differences between heat fluxes. For clear days QH lags Q*, thus the ratio of QH to Q* increases throughout the day. In summer the observed energy partitioning is related to the vegetation fraction through use of a footprint model. The results demonstrate the value of scintillometry for integrating surface heterogeneity and offer improved understanding of the influence of anthropogenic materials on surface-atmosphere interactions.

In-situ spatio-temporal measurements of the detailed azimuthal substructure of the substorm current wedge

The substorm current wedge (SCW) is a fundamental component of geomagnetic substorms. Models tend to describe the SCW as a simple line current flowing into the ionosphere towards dawn and out of the ionosphere towards dusk, linked by a westward electrojet. We use multi-spacecraft observations from perigee passes of the Cluster 1 and 4 spacecraft during a substorm on 15 Jan 2010, in conjunction with ground-based observations, to examine the spatial structuring and temporal variability of the SCW. At this time, the spacecraft travelled east-west azimuthally above the auroral region. We show that the SCW has significant azimuthal sub-structure on scales of 100~km at altitudes of 4,000-7,000~km. We identify 26 individual current sheets in the Cluster 4 data and 34 individual current sheets in the Cluster 1 data, with Cluster 1 passing through the SCW 120-240~s after Cluster 4 at 1,300-2,000~km higher altitude. Both spacecraft observed large-scale regions of net upward and downward field-aligned current, consistent with the large-scale characteristics of the SCW, although sheets of oppositely directed currents were observed within both regions. We show that the majority of these current sheets were closely aligned to a north-south direction, in contrast to the expected east-west orientation of the pre-onset aurora. Comparing our results with observations of the field-aligned current associated with bursty bulk flows (BBFs) we conclude that significant questions remain for the explanation of SCW structuring by BBF driven ``wedgelets". Our results therefore represent constraints on future modelling and theoretical frameworks on the generation of the SCW.