Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

Visual processing of optic flow and motor control in the human posterior cingulate sulcus

Previous studies have shown that the human posterior cingulate contains a visual processing area selective for optic flow (CSv). However, other studies performed in both humans and monkeys have identified a somatotopic motor region at the same location (CMA). Taken together, these findings suggested the possibility that the posterior cingulate contains a single visuomotor integration region. To test this idea we used fMRI to identify both visual and motor areas of the posterior cingulate in the same brains and to test the activity of those regions during a visuomotor task. Results indicated that rather than a single visuomotor region the posterior cingulate contains adjacent but separate motor and visual regions. CSv lies in the fundus of the cingulate sulcus, while CMA lies in the dorsal bank of the sulcus, slightly superior in terms of stereotaxic coordinates. A surprising and novel finding was that activity in CSv was suppressed during the visuomotor task, despite the visual stimulus being identical to that used to localize the region. This may provide an important clue to the specific role played by this region in the utilization of optic flow to control self-motion.

The grass-free lawn: floral performance and management implications

Grass lawns are a ubiquitous feature of urban green-space throughout much of the temperate world. Species poor and intensively managed, lawns are ecologically impoverished, however environmentally aware lawn owners are reluctant to implement alternatives due to aesthetic concerns. Developing an alternative lawn format which is both biodiversity friendly and aesthetically pleasing is an imperative for urban greening. We suggest that such an alternative can be provided by replacing the grass lawn by a forb-based mix. To advance this, we tested the floral performance of three groups of clonal perennial forbs (native, non-native and mixed), each maintained using standard lawn management mowing regimes. Our findings show that both the frequency of mowing and the height at which mowing is applied influence floral performance and lawn aesthetics. Species origin was found to influence floral productivity, floral visibility and floral variety within grass-free lawns, with native species providing the greatest floral performance. The behaviour and management of grass lawns was not found to be a suitable analogue for the management of grass-free lawns and grass-free lawns are sufficiently different from grass lawns to require an entirely original management approach. We suggest that the grass-free lawn can provide an aesthetically and environmentally relevant replacement for the ubiquitous and ecologically-poor grass lawn.

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

Effect of impurities in biodiesel-derived waste glycerol on the performance and feasibility of biotechnological processes

The rapid development of biodiesel production technology has led to the generation of tremendous quantities of glycerol wastes, as the main by-product of the process. Stoichiometrically, it has been calculated that for every 100 kg of biodiesel, 10 kg of glycerol are produced. Based on the technology imposed by various biodiesel plants, glycerol wastes may contain numerous kinds of impurities such as methanol, salts, soaps, heavy metals and residual fatty acids. This fact often renders biodiesel-derived glycerol unprofitable for further purification. Therefore, the utilization of crude glycerol though biotechnological means represents a promising alternative for the effective management of this industrial waste. This review summarizes the effect of various impurities-contaminants that are found in biodiesel-derived crude glycerol upon its conversion by microbial strains in biotechnological processes. Insights are given concerning the technologies that are currently applied in biodiesel production, with emphasis to the impurities that are added in the composition of crude glycerol, through each step of the production process. Moreover, extensive discussion is made in relation with the impact of the nature of impurities upon the performances of prokaryotic and eukaryotic microorganisms, during crude glycerol bioconversions into a variety of high added-value metabolic products. Finally, aspects concerning ways of crude glycerol treatment for the removal of inhibitory contaminants as reported in the literature are given and comprehensively discussed