Forecasting extinction risk of ectotherms under climate warming: an evolutionary perspective

1. It has been postulated that climate warming may pose the greatest threat species in the tropics, where ectotherms have evolved more thermal specialist physiologies. Although species could rapidly respond to environmental change through adaptation, little is known about the potential for thermal adaptation, especially in tropical species. 2. In the light of the limited empirical evidence available and predictions from mutation-selection theory, we might expect tropical ectotherms to have limited genetic variance to enable adaptation. However, as a consequence of thermodynamic constraints, we might expect this disadvantage to be at least partially offset by a fitness advantage, that is, the ‘hotter-is-better’ hypothesis. 3. Using an established quantitative genetics model and metabolic scaling relationships, we integrate the consequences of the opposing forces of thermal specialization and thermodynamic constraints on adaptive potential by evaluating extinction risk under climate warming. We conclude that the potential advantage of a higher maximal development rate can in theory more than offset the potential disadvantage of lower genetic variance associated with a thermal specialist strategy. 4. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk are fundamentally very sensitive to estimates of generation time and genetic variance. However, our qualitative conclusion that the relative risk of extinction is likely to be lower for tropical species than for temperate species is robust to assumptions regarding the effects of effective population size, mutation rate and birth rate per capita. 5. With a view to improving ecological forecasts, we use this modelling framework to review the sensitivity of our predictions to the model’s underpinning theoretical assumptions and the empirical basis of macroecological patterns that suggest thermal specialization and fitness increase towards the tropics. We conclude by suggesting priority areas for further empirical research.

Modulation of ion channels by hydrogen sulfide

Increasing current awareness and understanding of the roles and mechanisms of action of ion channel regulation by H(2)S will open opportunities for therapeutic intervention with clear clinical benefits, and inform future therapies. In addition, more sensitive methods for detecting relevant physiological concentrations of H(2)S will allow for clarification of specific ion channel regulation with reference to physiological or pathophysiological settings.

Alpha-synuclein modulation of Ca2+ signaling in human neuroblastoma (SH-SY5Y) cells

Parkinson's disease (PD) is characterized in part by the presence of alpha-synuclein (alpha-syn) rich intracellular inclusions (Lewy bodies). Mutations and multiplication of the alpha-synuclein gene (SNCA) are associated with familial PD. Since Ca2+ dyshomeostasis may play an important role in the pathogenesis of PD, we used fluorimetry in fura-2 loaded SH-SY5Y cells to monitor Ca2+ homeostasis in cells stably transfected with either wild-type alpha-syn, the A53T mutant form, the S129D phosphomimetic mutant or with empty vector (which served as control). Voltage-gated Ca2+ influx evoked by exposure of cells to 50 mM K+ was enhanced in cells expressing all three forms of alpha-syn, an effect which was due specifically to increased Ca2+ entry via L-type Ca2+ channels. Mobilization of Ca2+ by muscarine was not strikingly modified by any of the alpha-syn forms, but they all reduced capacitative Ca2+ entry following store depletion caused either by muscarine or thapsigargin. Emptying of stores with cyclopiazonic acid caused similar rises of [Ca2+](i) in all cells tested (with the exception of the S129D mutant), and mitochondrial Ca2+ content was unaffected by any form of alpha-synuclein. However, only WT alpha-syn transfected cells displayed significantly impaired viability. Our findings suggest that alpha-syn regulates Ca2+ entry pathways and, consequently, that abnormal alpha-syn levels may promote neuronal damage through dysregulation of Ca2+ homeostasis.

Hypoxic modulation of ca(2+) signaling in human venous and arterial endothelial cells

Our understanding of vascular endothelial cell physiology is based on studies of endothelial cells cultured from various vascular beds of different species for varying periods of time. Systematic analysis of the properties of endothelial cells from different parts of the vasculature is lacking. Here, we compare Ca(2+) homeostasis in primary cultures of endothelial cells from human internal mammary artery and saphenous vein and how this is modified by hypoxia, an inevitable consequence of bypass grafting (2.5% O(2), 24 h). Basal [Ca(2+)]( i ) and store depletion-mediated Ca(2+) entry were significantly different between the two cell types, yet agonist (ATP)-mediated mobilization from endoplasmic reticulum stores was similar. Hypoxia potentiated agonist-evoked responses in arterial, but not venous, cells but augmented store depletion-mediated Ca(2+) entry only in venous cells. Clearly, Ca(2+) signaling and its remodeling by hypoxia are strikingly different in arterial vs. venous endothelial cells. Our data have important implications for the interpretation of data obtained from endothelial cells of varying sources.

Modulation of potassium ion channel proteins utilising antibodies

The application of antibodies to living cells has the potential to modulate the function of specific proteins by virtue of their high specificity. This specificity has proven effective in determining the involvement of many proteins in neuronal function where specific agonists and antagonists do not exist, e.g. ion channel subunits. We discuss a way to utilise subunit specific antibodies to target individual channel subunits in electrophysiological experiments to determine functional roles within native neurones. Utilising this approach, we have investigated the role of the voltage-gated potassium channel Kv3.1b subunit within a region of the brainstem important in the regulation of autonomic function. We provide some useful control experiments in order to help validate this method. We conclude that antibodies can be extremely valuable in determining the functions of specific proteins in living neurones in neuroscience research.

Carbon monoxide inhibits L-type Ca2+ channels via redox modulation of key cysteine residues by mitochondrial reactive oxygen species

Conditions of stress, such as myocardial infarction, stimulate up-regulation of heme oxygenase (HO-1) to provide cardioprotection. Here, we show that CO, a product of heme catabolism by HO-1, directly inhibits native rat cardiomyocyte L-type Ca2+ currents and the recombinant alpha1C subunit of the human cardiac L-type Ca2+ channel. CO (applied via a recognized CO donor molecule or as the dissolved gas) caused reversible, voltage-independent channel inhibition, which was dependent on the presence of a spliced insert in the cytoplasmic C-terminal region of the channel. Sequential molecular dissection and point mutagenesis identified three key cysteine residues within the proximal 31 amino acids of the splice insert required for CO sensitivity. CO-mediated inhibition was independent of nitric oxide and protein kinase G but was prevented by antioxidants and the reducing agent, dithiothreitol. Inhibition of NADPH oxidase and xanthine oxidase did not affect the inhibitory actions of CO. Instead, inhibitors of complex III (but not complex I) of the mitochondrial electron transport chain and a mitochondrially targeted antioxidant (Mito Q) fully prevented the effects of CO. Our data indicate that the cardioprotective effects of HO-1 activity may be attributable to an inhibitory action of CO on cardiac L-type Ca2+ channels. Inhibition arises from the ability of CO to promote generation of reactive oxygen species from complex III of mitochondria. This in turn leads to redox modulation of any or all of three critical cysteine residues in the channel's cytoplasmic C-terminal tail, resulting in channel inhibition.

Modulation of hTREK-1 by carbon monoxide

TREK-1 is a background K channel important in the regulation of neuronal excitability. Here, we demonstrate that recombinant human TREK-1 is activated by low concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitric oxide (NO), applied via their respective donor molecules. Related channels hTASK-1 and hTASK-3 were unaffected by CO. Effects of both CO and NO were prevented by preincubation of cells with the protein kinase G inhibitor, Rp-8-Br-PET-cGMPS. The effects of CO were independent of NO formation. At higher concentrations, both NO and CO were inhibitory. As both NO and CO are important neuronal gasotransmitters and TREK is crucial in regulating neuronal excitability, our results provide a novel means by which these gases may modulate neuronal activity.

Immunopharmacology - antibodies for specific modulation of proteins involved in neuronal function

The application of antibodies to living neurones has the potential to modulate function of specific proteins by virtue of their high specificity. This specificity has proven effective in determining the involvement of many proteins in neuronal function where specific agonists and antagonists do not exist, e.g. ion channel subunits. We discuss studies where antibodies modulate functions of voltage gated sodium, voltage gated potassium, voltage gated calcium hyperpolarisation activated cyclic nucleotide (HCN gated) and transient receptor potential (TRP) channels. Ligand gated channels studied in this way include nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, purinoceptors and GABA receptors. Antibodies have also helped reveal the involvement of different intracellular proteins in neuronal functions including G-proteins as well as other proteins involved in trafficking, phosphoinositide signalling and neurotransmitter release. Some suggestions for control experiments are made to help validate the method. We conclude that antibodies can be extremely valuable in determining the functions of specific proteins in living neurones in neuroscience research.

Final warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex in high- and low-top CMIP5 models

The final warming date of the polar vortex is a key component of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric and tropospheric variability in spring and summer. We examine the effect of external forcings on Southern Hemisphere final warming date, and the sensitivity of any projected changes to model representation of the stratosphere. Final warming date is calculated using a temperature-based diagnostic for ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models, under the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. The final warming date in the models is generally too late in comparison with those from reanalyses: around two weeks too late in the low-top ensemble, and around one week too late in the high-top ensemble. Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is used to analyse past and future change in final warming date. Both the low- and high-top ensemble show characteristic behaviour expected in response to changes in greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone concentrations. In both ensembles, under both scenarios, an increase in final warming date is seen between 1850 and 2100, with the latest dates occurring in the early twenty-first century, associated with the minimum in stratospheric ozone concentrations in this period. However, this response is more pronounced in the high-top ensemble. The high-top models show a delay in final warming date in RCP8.5 that is not produced by the low-top models, which are shown to be less responsive to greenhouse gas forcing. This suggests that it may be necessary to use stratosphere resolving models to accurately predict Southern Hemisphere surface climate change.

The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.

The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming.

Global warming potentials and radiative efficiencies of halocarbons and related compounds: a comprehensive review

In the mid-1970s it was recognized that, as well as being substances that deplete stratospheric ozone, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were strong greenhouse gases that could have substantial impacts on radiative forcing of climate change. Around a decade later, this group of radiatively active compounds was expanded to include a large number of replacements for ozone-depleting substances such as chlorocarbons, hydrochlorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), bromofluorocarbons, and bromochlorofluorocarbons. This paper systematically reviews the published literature concerning the radiative efficiencies (REs) of CFCs, bromofluorocarbons and bromochlorofluorocarbons (halons), HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3, and related halogen containing compounds. In addition we provide a comprehensive and self-consistent set of new calculations of REs and global warming potentials (GWPs) for these compounds, mostly employing atmospheric lifetimes taken from the available literature. We also present Global Temperature change Potentials (GTPs) for selected gases. Infrared absorption spectra used in the RE calculations were taken from databases and individual studies, and from experimental and ab initio computational studies. Evaluations of REs and GWPs are presented for more than 200 compounds. Our calculations yield REs significantly (> 5%) different from those in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for 49 compounds. We present new RE values for more than 100 gases which were not included in AR4. A widely-used simple method to calculate REs and GWPs from absorption spectra and atmospheric lifetimes is assessed and updated. This is the most comprehensive review of the radiative efficiencies and global warming potentials of halogenated compounds performed to date.

Modulation of visually evoked cortical fMRI responses by phase of ongoing occipital alpha oscillations

Using simultaneous electroencephalography as a measure of ongoing activity and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) as a measure of the stimulus-driven neural response, we examined whether the amplitude and phase of occipital alpha oscillations at the onset of a brief visual stimulus affects the amplitude of the visually evoked fMRI response. When accounting for intrinsic coupling of alpha amplitude and occipital fMRI signal by modeling and subtracting pseudo-trials, no significant effect of prestimulus alpha amplitude on the evoked fMRI response could be demonstrated. Regarding the effect of alpha phase, we found that stimuli arriving at the peak of the alpha cycle yielded a lower blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) fMRI response in early visual cortex (V1/V2) than stimuli presented at the trough of the cycle. Our results therefore show that phase of occipital alpha oscillations impacts the overall strength of a visually evoked response, as indexed by the BOLD signal. This observation complements existing evidence that alpha oscillations reflect periodic variations in cortical excitability and suggests that the phase of oscillations in postsynaptic potentials can serve as a mechanism of gain control for incoming neural activity. Finally, our findings provide a putative neural basis for observations of alpha phase dependence of visual perceptual performance.

Global ocean warming tied to anthropogenic forcing

Observed global ocean heat content anomalies over the past five decades agree well with an anthropogenically forced simulation using the European Center/Hamburg coupled general circulation model (GCM) ECHAM4/OPYC3 considering increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the direct and indirect effect of sulphate aerosols, and anthropogenic changes in tropospheric ozone. An optimal detection and attribution analysis confirms that the simulated climate change signal can be detected in the observations in both the upper 300 m and 3000 m of the water column and that the observed changes in ocean heat content are consistent with those expected from the anthropogenically forced GCM integration. This suggests that anthropogenic forcing is a likely explanation for the observed global ocean warming over the past five decades.

The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible Mechanism

The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 60°–90°N amounted to some 1.7°C. Whether this event is an example of an internal climate mode or is externally forced, such as by enhanced solar effects, is presently under debate. This study suggests that natural variability is a likely cause, with reduced sea ice cover being crucial for the warming. A robust sea ice–air temperature relationship was demonstrated by a set of four simulations with the atmospheric ECHAM model forced with observed SST and sea ice concentrations. An analysis of the spatial characteristics of the observed early twentieth-century surface air temperature anomaly revealed that it was associated with similar sea ice variations. Further investigation of the variability of Arctic surface temperature and sea ice cover was performed by analyzing data from a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. By analyzing climate anomalies in the model that are similar to those that occurred in the early twentieth century, it was found that the simulated temperature increase in the Arctic was related to enhanced wind-driven oceanic inflow into the Barents Sea with an associated sea ice retreat. The magnitude of the inflow is linked to the strength of westerlies into the Barents Sea. This study proposes a mechanism sustaining the enhanced westerly winds by a cyclonic atmospheric circulation in the Barents Sea region created by a strong surface heat flux over the ice-free areas. Observational data suggest a similar series of events during the early twentieth-century Arctic warming, including increasing westerly winds between Spitsbergen and Norway, reduced sea ice, and enhanced cyclonic circulation over the Barents Sea. At the same time, the North Atlantic Oscillation was weakening.