Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979-1988 (Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject)

As a part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), the behaviour of 15 general circulation models has been analysed in order to diagnose and compare the ability of the different models in simulating Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric blocking. In accordance with the established AMIP procedure, the 10-year model integrations were performed using prescribed, time-evolving monthly mean observed SSTs spanning the period January 1979–December 1988. Atmospheric observational data (ECMWF analyses) over the same period have been also used to verify the models results. The models involved in this comparison represent a wide spectrum of model complexity, with different horizontal and vertical resolution, numerical techniques and physical parametrizations, and exhibit large differences in blocking behaviour. Nevertheless, a few common features can be found, such as the general tendency to underestimate both blocking frequency and the average duration of blocks. The problem of the possible relationship between model blocking and model systematic errors has also been assessed, although without resorting to ad-hoc numerical experimentation it is impossible to relate with certainty particular model deficiencies in representing blocking to precise parts of the model formulation.

Protease-activated receptors: protease signaling in the gastrointestinal tract

Serine proteases from the circulation, inflammatory cells, digestive glands and microorganisms can signal to cells by cleaving protease-activated receptors (PARs), a family of four G-protein-coupled receptors. Proteases cleave PARs at specific sites to expose tethered ligand domains that bind to and activate the cleaved receptors. Despite this irreversible mechanism of activation, PAR signaling is tightly regulated to prevent the uncontrolled stimulation of cells. Although PARs are found in all organ systems, protease signaling is of particular interest in the gastrointestinal tract, where proteases regulate neurotransmission, secretion, motility, epithelial permeability and intestinal inflammation, and can thus contribute to disease.

Simulated changes in the relationship between tropical ocean temperatures and the western African monsoon during the mid-Holocene

Results from nine coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations have been used to investigate changes in the relationship between the variability of monsoon precipitation over western Africa and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between the mid-Holocene and the present day. Although the influence of tropical SSTs on the African monsoon is generally overestimated in the control simulations, the models reproduce aspects of the observed modes of variability. Thus, most models reproduce the observed negative correlation between western Sahelian precipitation and SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, and many of them capture the positive correlation between SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Atlantic and precipitation over the Guinea coastal region. Although the response of individual model to the change in orbital forcing between 6 ka and present differs somewhat, eight of the models show that the strength of the teleconnection between SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific and Sahelian precipitation is weaker in the mid-Holocene. Some of the models imply that this weakening was associated with a shift towards longer time periods (from 3–5 years in the control simulations toward 4–10 years in the mid-Holocene simulations). The simulated reduction in the teleconnection between eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and Sahelian precipitation appears to be primarily related to a reduction in the atmospheric circulation bridge between the Pacific and West Africa but, depending on the model, other mechanisms such as increased importance of other modes of tropical ocean variability or increased local recycling of monsoonal precipitation can also play a role.

Effects of 3-nitrooxypropanol on methane emission,digestion, and energy and nitrogen balance of lactating dairy cows

The objective was to measure effects of 3-nitrooxypropanol (3NP) on methane production of lactating dairy cows and any associated changes in digestion and energy and nitrogen metabolism. Six Holstein-Friesian dairy cows in mid-lactation were fed twice daily a total mixed ration with maize silage as the primary forage source. Cows received 1 of 3 treatments using an experimental design based on two 3 × 3 Latin squares with 5-wk periods. Treatments were a control placebo or 500 or 2,500 mg/d of 3NP delivered directly into the rumen, via the rumen fistula, in equal doses before each feeding. Measurements of methane production and energy and nitrogen balance were obtained during wk 5 of each period using respiration calorimeters and digestion trials. Measurements of rumen pH (48 h) and postprandial volatile fatty acid and ammonia concentrations were made at the end of wk 4. Daily methane production was reduced by 3NP, but the effects were not dose dependent (reductions of 6.6 and 9.8% for 500 and 2,500 mg/d, respectively). Dosing 3NP had a transitory inhibitory effect on methane production, which may have been due to the product leaving the rumen in liquid outflow or through absorption or metabolism. Changes in rumen concentrations of volatile fatty acids indicated that the pattern of rumen fermentation was affected by both doses of the product, with a decrease in acetate:propionate ratio observed, but that acetate production was inhibited by the higher dose. Dry matter, organic matter, acid detergent fiber, N, and energy digestibility were reduced at the higher dose of the product. The decrease in digestible energy supply was not completely countered by the decrease in methane excretion such that metabolizable energy supply, metabolizable energy concentration of the diet, and net energy balance (milk plus tissue energy) were reduced by the highest dose of 3NP. Similarly, the decrease in nitrogen digestibility at the higher dose of the product was associated with a decrease in body nitrogen balance that was not observed for the lower dose. Milk yield and milk fat concentration and fatty acid composition were not affected but milk protein concentration was greater for the higher dose of 3NP. Twice-daily rumen dosing of 3NP reduced methane production by lactating dairy cows, but the dose of 2,500 mg/d reduced rumen acetate concentration, diet digestibility, and energy supply. Further research is warranted to determine the optimal dose and delivery method of the product. Key words: 3-nitrooxypropanol, methane, digestion, rumen, dairy cow

Comparing tropical precipitation simulated by the Met Office NWP and climate models with satellite observations

Forecasts of precipitation and water vapor made by the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are evaluated using products from satellite observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for June–September 2011, with a focus on tropical areas (308S–308N). Consistent with previous studies, the predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ;3 h) and the amplitude is too strong over both tropical ocean and land regions. Most of the wet and dry precipitation biases, particularly those over land, can be explained by the diurnal-cycle discrepancies. An overall wet bias over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and a dry bias over the western Pacific warmpool and India are linked with similar biases in the climate model, which shares common parameterizations with the NWP version. Whereas precipitation biases develop within hours in the NWP model, underestimates in water vapor (which are assimilated by the NWP model) evolve over the first few days of the forecast. The NWP simulations are able to capture observed daily-to-intraseasonal variability in water vapor and precipitation, including fluctuations associated with tropical cyclones.

Intercomparison of simulated global vegetation distribution in response to 6 kyr BP orbital forcing

The response of ten atmospheric general circulation models to orbital forcing at 6 kyr BP has been investigated using the BIOME model, which predicts equilibrium vegetation distribution, as a diagnostic. Several common features emerge: (a) reduced tropical rain forest as a consequence of increased aridity in the equatorial zone, (b) expansion of moisture-demanding vegetation in the Old World subtropics as a consequence of the expansion of the Afro–Asian monsoon, (c) an increase in warm grass/shrub in the Northern Hemisphere continental interiors in response to warming and enhanced aridity, and (d) a northward shift in the tundra–forest boundary in response to a warmer growing season at high northern latitudes. These broadscale features are consistent from model to model, but there are differences in their expression at a regional scale. Vegetation changes associated with monsoon enhancement and high-latitude summer warming are consistent with palaeoenvironmental observations, but the simulated shifts in vegetation belts are too small in both cases. Vegetation changes due to warmer and more arid conditions in the midcontinents of the Northern Hemisphere are consistent with palaeoenvironmental data from North America, but data from Eurasia suggests conditions were wetter at 6 kyr BP than today. The models show quantitatively similar vegetation changes in the intertropical zone, and in the northern and southern extratropics. The small differences among models in the magnitude of the global vegetation response are not related to differences in global or zonal climate averages, but reflect differences in simulated regional features. Regional-scale analyses will therefore be necessary to identify the underlying causes of such differences among models.

Simulated climate and biomes of Africa during the Late Quaternary: comparison with pollen and lake status data

New compilations of African pollen and lake data are compared with climate (CCM1, NCAR, Boulder) and vegetation (BIOME 1.2, GSG, Lund) simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and early to mid-Holocene (EMH). The simulated LGM climate was ca 4°C colder and drier than present, with maximum reduction in precipitation in semi-arid regions. Biome simulations show lowering of montane vegetation belts and expansion of southern xerophytic associations, but no change in the distribution of deserts and tropical rain forests. The lakes show LGM conditions similar or drier than present throughout northern and tropical Africa. Pollen data indicate lowering of montane vegetation belts, the stability of the Sahara, and a reduction of rain forest. The paleoenvironmental data are consistent with the simulated changes in temperature and moisture budgets, although they suggest the climate model underestimates equatorial aridity. EMH simulations show temperatures slightly less than present and increased monsoonal precipitation in the eastern Sahara and East Africa. Biome simulations show an upward shift of montane vegetation belts, fragmentation of xerophytic vegetation in southern Africa, and a major northward shift of the southern margin of the eastern Sahara. The lakes indicate conditions wetter than present across northern Africa. Pollen data show an upward shift of the montane forests, the northward shift of the southern margin of the Sahara, and a major extension of tropical rain forest. The lake and pollen data confirm monsoon expansion in eastern Africa, but the climate model fails to simulate the wet conditions in western Africa.

Use of pelleted sericea lespedeza (Lespedeza cuneata) for natural control of coccidia and gastrointestinal nematodes in weaned goats

Infection with Eimeria spp. (coccidia) can be devastating in goats, particularly for young, recently-weaned kids, resulting in diarrhea, dehydration, and even death. Feeding dried sericea lespedeza [SL; Lespedeza cuneata (Dum.-Cours.) G. Don.] to young goats has been reported to reduce the effects of internal parasites, including gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) but there have been no reports of the effects of feeding this forage on Eimeria spp. in goats. Two confinement feeding experiments were completed on recently-weaned intact bucks (24 Kiko-cross, Exp. 1; 20 Spanish, Exp. 2) to determine effects of SL pellets on an established infection of GIN and coccidia. The bucks were assigned to 1 of 2 (Exp. 1) or 3 (Exp. 2) treatment groups based upon the number of Eimeria spp. oocysts per gram (OPG) of feces. In Exp. 1, the kids were fed 1 of 2 pelleted rations ad libitum; 90% SL leaf meal + 10% of a liquid molasses/lignin binder mix and a commercial pellet with 12% crude protein (CP) and 24% acid detergent fiber (n = 12/treatment group, 2 animals/pen). For Exp. 2, treatment groups were fed 1) 90% SL leaf meal pellets from leaves stored 3 years (n = 7), 2) 90% SL pellets from leaf meal stored less than 6 months, (n = 7), and the commercial pellets (n = 6) ad libitum. For both trials, fecal and blood samples were taken from individual animals every 7 days for 28 days to determine OPG and GIN eggs per gram (EPG) and packed cell volume (PCV), respectively. In Exp. 2, feces were scored for consistency (1 = solid pellets, 5 = slurry) as an indicator of coccidiosis. In Exp. 1, EPG (P < 0.001) and OPG (P < 0.01) were reduced by 78.7 and 96.9%, respectively, 7 days after initiation of feeding in goats on the SL pellet diet compared with animals fed the control pellets. The OPG and EPG remained lower in treatment than control animals until the end of the trial. In Exp. 2, goats fed new and old SL leaf meal pellets had 66.2 and 79.2% lower (P < 0.05) EPG and 92.2 and 91.2% lower (P < 0.05) OPG, respectively, than control animals within 7 days, and these differences were maintained or increased throughout the trial. After 4 weeks of pellet feeding in Exp. 2, fecal scores were lower (P < 0.01) in both SL-fed groups compared with control animals, indicating fewer signs of coccidiosis. There was no effect of diet on PCV values throughout either experiment. Dried, pelleted SL has excellent potential as a natural anti-coccidial feed for weaned goats.

Synergistic angular and spectral estimation of aerosol properties using CHRIS/PROBA-1 and simulated Sentinel-3~data

A method has been developed to estimate Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Fine Mode Fraction (FMF) and Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) over land surfaces using simulated Sentinel-3 data. The method uses inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model, and includes a general physical model of angular surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value of the aerosol properties providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values for a number of view angles and wavelengths with those provided by the physical model. A method of estimating AOD using only angular retrieval has previously been demonstrated on data from the ENVISAT and PROBA-1 satellite instruments, and is extended here to the synergistic spectral and angular sampling of Sentinel-3 and the additional aerosol properties. The method is tested using hyperspectral, multi-angle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS) images. The values obtained from these CHRIS observations are validated using ground based sun-photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets using the synergistic retrieval and improved aerosol models show an RMSE of 0.06 in AOD, reduced to 0.03 over vegetated targets.

A laminated polymer film formulation for enteric delivery of live vaccine and probiotic bacteria

Live bacterial cells (LBC) are administered orally as attenuated vaccines, to deliver biopharmaceutical agents, and as probiotics to improve gastrointestinal health. However, LBC present unique formulation challenges and must survive gastrointestinal antimicrobial defenses including gastric acid after administration. We present a simple new formulation concept, termed Polymer Film Laminate (PFL). LBC are ambient dried onto cast acid-resistant enteric polymer films that are then laminated together to produce a solid oral dosage form. LBC of a model live bacterial vaccine and a probiotic were dried directly onto a cast film of enteric polymer. The effectiveness at protecting dried cells in a simulated gastric fluid (pH 2.0) depended on the composition of enteric polymer film used, with a blend of ethylcellulose plus Eudragit L100 55 providing greater protection from acid than Eudragit alone. However, although PFL made from blended polymers films completely released low molecular weight dye into intestinal conditions (pH 7.0), they failed to release LBC. In contrast, PFL made from Eudragit alone successfully protected dried probiotic or vaccine LBC from simulated gastric fluid for 2h, and subsequently released all viable cells within 60min of transfer into simulated intestinal fluid. Release kinetics could be controlled by modifying the lamination method.

The three-dimensional morphology of simulated and observed convective storms over southern England

A set of high-resolution radar observations of convective storms has been collected to evaluate such storms in the UK Met Office Unified Model during the DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms). The 3-GHz Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar was set up with a scan-scheduling algorithm to automatically track convective storms identified in real-time from the operational rainfall radar network. More than 1,000 storm observations gathered over fifteen days in 2011 and 2012 are used to evaluate the model under various synoptic conditions supporting convection. In terms of the detailed three-dimensional morphology, storms in the 1500-m grid-length simulations are shown to produce horizontal structures a factor 1.5–2 wider compared to radar observations. A set of nested model runs at grid lengths down to 100m show that the models converge in terms of storm width, but the storm structures in the simulations with the smallest grid lengths are too narrow and too intense compared to the radar observations. The modelled storms were surrounded by a region of drizzle without ice reflectivities above 0 dBZ aloft, which was related to the dominance of ice crystals and was improved by allowing only aggregates as an ice particle habit. Simulations with graupel outperformed the standard configuration for heavy-rain profiles, but the storm structures were a factor 2 too wide and the convective cores 2 km too deep.

Mechanisms for AMOC variability simulated by the NEMO model

We have investigated mechanisms for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability at 26.5° N (other than the Ekman component) that can be related to external forcings, in particular wind variability. Resolution dependence is studied using identical experiments with 1° and 1/4° NEMO model runs over 1960–2010. The analysis shows that much of the variability in the AMOC at 26° N can be related to the wind strength over the North Atlantic, through mechanisms lagged on different timescales. At ~ 1-year lag the January–June difference of mean sea level pressure between high and mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic explains 35–50% of the interannual AMOC variability (with negative correlation between wind strength and AMOC). At longer lead timescales ~ 4 years, strong (weak) winds over the northern North Atlantic (specifically linked to the NAO index) are followed by higher (lower) AMOC transport, but this mechanism only works in the 1/4° model. Analysis of the density correlations suggests an increase (decrease) in deep water formation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to be the cause. Therefore another 30% of the AMOC variability at 26° N can be related to density changes in the top 1000 m in the Labrador and Irminger seas occurring ~ 4 years earlier.