Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops

Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO2] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO2] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in + 1 degrees C steps) and temperature variability (0% and + 50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein.

Mutations in the NS2B and NS3 genes affect mouse neuroinvasiveness of a Western European field strain of tick-borne encephalitis virus

An attenuated strain (263) of the tick-borne encephalitis virus, isolated from field ticks, was either serially subcultured, 5 times in mice, or at 40 degrees C in PS cells, producing 2 independent strains, 263-m5 and 263-TR with identical genomes; both strains exhibited increased plaque size, neuroinvasiveness and temperature-resistance. Sequencing revealed two unique amino acid substitutions, one mapping close to the catalytic site of the viral protease. These observations imply that virus adaptation from ticks to mammals occurs by selection of pre-existing virulent variants from the quasispecies population rather than by the emergence of new random mutations. The significance of these observations is discussed. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temperature-driven proliferation of Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae in bryozoan hosts portends salmonid declines

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is an emerging disease of salmonid fishes. It is provoked by temperature and caused by infective spores of the myxozoan parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which develops in freshwater bryozoans. We investigated the link between PKD and temperature by determining whether temperature influences the proliferation of T bryosalmonae in the bryozoan host Fredericella sultana. Herein we show that increased temperatures drive the proliferation of T bryosalmonae in bryozoans by provoking, accelerating and prolonging the production of infective spores from cryptic stages. Based on these results we predict that PKD outbreaks will increase further in magnitude and severity in wild and farmed salmonids as a result of climate-driven enhanced proliferation in invertebrate hosts, and urge for early implementation of management strategies to reduce future salmonid declines.

Bergmann's rule and body size in mammals

Aim: To describe the geographical pattern of mean body size of the non-volant mammals of the Nearctic and Neotropics and evaluate the influence of five environmental variables that are likely to affect body size gradients. Location: The Western Hemisphere. Methods: We calculated mean body size (average log mass) values in 110 × 110 km cells covering the continental Nearctic and Neotropics. We also generated cell averages for mean annual temperature, range in elevation, their interaction, actual evapotranspiration, and the global vegetation index and its coefficient of variation. Associations between mean body size and environmental variables were tested with simple correlations and ordinary least squares multiple regression, complemented with spatial autocorrelation analyses and split-line regression. We evaluated the relative support for each multiple-regression model using AIC. Results: Mean body size increases to the north in the Nearctic and is negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, across the Neotropics mammals are largest in the tropical and subtropical lowlands and smaller in the Andes, generating a positive correlation with temperature. Finally, body size and temperature are nonlinearly related in both regions, and split-line linear regression found temperature thresholds marking clear shifts in these relationships (Nearctic 10.9 °C; Neotropics 12.6 °C). The increase in body sizes with decreasing temperature is strongest in the northern Nearctic, whereas a decrease in body size in mountains dominates the body size gradients in the warmer parts of both regions. Main conclusions: We confirm previous work finding strong broad-scale Bergmann trends in cold macroclimates but not in warmer areas. For the latter regions (i.e. the southern Nearctic and the Neotropics), our analyses also suggest that both local and broad-scale patterns of mammal body size variation are influenced in part by the strong mesoscale climatic gradients existing in mountainous areas. A likely explanation is that reduced habitat sizes in mountains limit the presence of larger-sized mammals.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with oxygen

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with O-2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second order rate constants at 10 Torr were fitted to the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.08 +/- 0.04) + (1.57 +/- 0.32 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln10 The decrease in rate constant values with increasing temperature, although systematic is very small. The rate constants showed slight increases in value with pressure at each temperature, but this was scarcely beyond experimental uncertainty. From estimates of Lennard-Jones collision rates, this reaction is occurring at ca. 1 in 20 collisions, almost independent of pressure and temperature. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level backed further by multi-configurational (MC) SCF calculations, augmented by second order perturbation theory (MRMP2), support a mechanism in which the initial adduct, H2SiOO, formed in the triplet state (T), undergoes intersystem crossing to the more stable singlet state (S) prior to further low energy isomerisation processes leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are H2O + SiO. The decomposition of the intermediate cyclo-siladioxirane, via O-O bond fission, plays an important role in the overall process. The bottleneck for the overall process appears to be the T -> S process in H2SiOO. This process has a small spin orbit coupling matrix element, consistent with an estimate of its rate constant of 1 x 10(9) s(-1) obtained with the aid of RRKM theory. This interpretation preserves the idea that, as in its reactions in general, SiH2 initially reacts at the encounter rate with O-2. The low values for the secondary reaction barriers on the potential energy surface account for the lack of an observed pressure dependence. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + O-2 and SiCl2 + O-2.

Chemical composition and reactivity of water on clean and oxygen-covered Pd{111}

The chemical composition and dissociation behaviour of water adsorbed on clean and oxygen pre-covered Pd{111} was studied using high-resolution time-resolved and temperature-programmed X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. We find that water remains intact at all temperatures up to desorption on the clean surface and at high oxygen coverage(0.69 ML) when a surface oxide is formed. The highest desorption peaks occur at 163 K from the clean surface and at 172 K from the surface oxide. At the intermediate coverage of 0.20 ML oxygen reacts with coadsorbed water at 155 K, to generate a mixed H2O/OH layer exhibiting a (root 3- x root 3)R30 degrees diffraction pattern, which is stable up to 177 K. The measured ratio between intact water and the hydroxyl species in this layer varies between 1.5 and 2 depending on temperature. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phase mixing and phase separation accompanying the catalytic oxidation of CO on Ir{100}

The co-adsorption of CO and O on the unreconstructed (1 x 1) phase of Ir {100} was examined by low energy electron diffraction (LEED) and temperature programmed desorption (TPD). When CO is adsorbed at 188 K onto the Ir{100} surface precovered with 0.5 ML O, a mixed c(4 x 2)-(2O + CO) overlayer is formed. All CO is oxidised upon heating and desorbs as CO2 in three distinct stages at 230 K, 330 K and 430 K in a 2:1:2 ratio. The excess oxygen left on the surface after all CO has reacted forms an overlayer with a LEED pattern with p(2 x 10) periodicity. This overlayer consists of stripes with a local p(2 x 1)-O arrangement of oxygen atoms separated by stripes of uncovered It. When CO is adsorbed at 300 K onto the surface precovered with 0.5 ML O an apparent (2 x 2) LEED pattern is observed. LEED IV analysis reveals that this pattern is a superposition of diffraction patterns from islands of c(2 x 2)-CO and p(2 x 1)-O structures on the surface. Heating this co-adsorbed overlayer leads to the desorption of CO, in two stages at 330 K and 430 K; the excess CO (0.1 ML) desorbs at 590 K. LEED IV structural analysis of the mixed c(4 x 2) O and CO overlayer shows that both the CO molecules and the O atoms occupy bridge sites. The O atoms show significant lateral displacements of 0.14 angstrom away from the CO molecules; the C-O bond is slightly expanded with respect to the gas phase (1.19 angstrom); the modifications of the Ir substrate with respect to the bulk-terminated surface are very small. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deprotection, tethering, and activation of a catalytically active metalloporphyrin to a chemically active metal surface: [SAc](4)P-Mn(III)Cl on Ag(100)

The adsorption and subsequent thermal chemistry of the acetyl-protected manganese porphyrin, [SA(C)](4)P-Mn(III)Cl on Ag(100) have been studied by high resolution XPS and temperature-programmed desorption. The deprotection event, leading to formation of the covalently bound thioporphyrin, has been characterized and the conditions necessary for removal of the axial chlorine ligand have been determined, thus establishing a methodology for creating tethered activated species that could serve as catalytic sites for delicate oxidation reactions. Surface-mediated acetyl deprotection occurs at 298 K, at which temperature porphyrin diffusion is limited. At temperatures above similar to 425 K porphyrin desorption, diffusion and deprotection occur and at >470 K the axial chlorine is removed.

Building cluster and shading in urban canyon for hot dry climate Part 2: Shading simulations

Under low latitude conditions, minimisation of solar irradiance within the urban environment may often be an important criterion in urban design. This can be achieved when the obstruction angle is large (high H/W ratio, H = height, W = width). Solar access to streets can always be decreased by increasing H/W to larger values. It is shown in this paper that the street canyon orientation (and not only the H/W ratio) has a considerable effect on solar shading and urban microclimate. The paper demonstrates through a series of shading simulation and temperature measurements that a number of useful relationships can be developed between the geometry and the microclimate of urban street canyons. These relationships are potentially helpful to assist in the formulation of urban design guidelines governing street dimensions and orientations for use by urban designers.

Effect of pH and dose on the growth of gut bacteria on prebiotic carbohydrates in vitro

The effect of pH and substrate dose on the fermentation profile of a number of commercial prebiotics was analysed in triplicate using stirred, pH and temperature controlled anaerobic batch culture fermentations, inoculated with a fresh faecal slurry from one of three healthy volunteers. Bacterial numbers were enumerated using fluorescence in situ hybridisation. The commercial prebiotics investigated were fructooligosaccharides (FOS), inulin, galactooligosaccharides (GOS), isomaltooligosaccharides (IMO) and lactulose. Two pH values were investigated, i.e. pH 6 and 6.8. Doses of 1% and 2% (w/v) were investigated, equivalent to approximately 4 and 8 g per day, respectively, in an adult diet. It was found that both pH and dose altered the bacterial composition. It was observed that FOS and inulin demonstrated the greatest bifidogenic effect at pH 6.8 and 1% (w/v) carbohydrate, whereas GOS, IMO and lactulose demonstrated their greatest bifidogenic effect at pH 6 and 2% (w/v) carbohydrate. From this we can conclude that various prebiotics demonstrate differing bifidogenic effects at different conditions in vitro. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the variability of single-cell lag times for Listeria innocua populations after sublethal and lethal heat treatments

Optical density measurements were used to estimate the effect of heat treatments on the single-cell lag times of Listeria innocua fitted to a shifted gamma distribution. The single-cell lag time was subdivided into repair time ( the shift of the distribution assumed to be uniform for all cells) and adjustment time (varying randomly from cell to cell). After heat treatments in which all of the cells recovered (sublethal), the repair time and the mean and the variance of the single-cell adjustment time increased with the severity of the treatment. When the heat treatments resulted in a loss of viability (lethal), the repair time of the survivors increased with the decimal reduction of the cell numbers independently of the temperature, while the mean and variance of the single-cell adjustment times remained the same irrespective of the heat treatment. Based on these observations and modeling of the effect of time and temperature of the heat treatment, we propose that the severity of a heat treatment can be characterized by the repair time of the cells whether the heat treatment is lethal or not, an extension of the F value concept for sublethal heat treatments. In addition, the repair time could be interpreted as the extent or degree of injury with a multiple-hit lethality model. Another implication of these results is that the distribution of the time for cells to reach unacceptable numbers in food is not affected by the time-temperature combination resulting in a given decimal reduction.

Interaction of heat-moisture conditions and physical properties in oat processing: II. Flake quality

Product quality is an important determinant of consumer acceptance. Consistent oat flake properties are thus necessary in the mill as well as in the marketplace. The effects of kilning and tempering conditions (30, 60 or 90 min at 80, 95 or 110 degrees C) on flake peroxidase activity, size, thickness, strength and water absorption were therefore determined. After kilning, some peroxidase activity remained but steaming and tempering effectively destroyed the activity of these enzymes. Thus the supposed protective effect of kilning or groat durability was not confirmed. Kilning resulted in an increase in flake specific weight, but no other significant effect on flake quality was observed. Tempering time and temperature interacted significantly to produce complex effects on flake specific weight, thickness and water absorption. Flake thickness and specific weight were significantly correlated (r = 0.808, n = 54). Longer tempering times resulted in an increased fines' fraction, from 1.45% at 30 min to 1.75% at 90 min. It is concluded that whilst kilning has little effect on flake quality, the heat treatment immediately prior to flaking, can be used to adjust flake quality independently of flake thickness.

Kinetic modeling of the generation of 2-and 3-methylbutanal in a heated extract of beef liver

Quantitative control of aroma generation during the Maillard reaction presents great scientific and industrial interest. Although there have been many studies conducted in simplified model systems, the results are difficult to apply to complex food systems, where the presence of other components can have a significant impact. In this work, an aqueous extract of defatted beef liver was chosen as a simplified food matrix for studying the kinetics of the Mallard reaction. Aliquots of the extract were heated under different time and temperature conditions and analyzed for sugars, amino acids, and methylbutanals, which are important Maillard-derived aroma compounds formed in cooked meat. Multiresponse kinetic modeling, based on a simplified mechanistic pathway, gave a good fit with the experimental data, but only when additional steps were introduced to take into account the interactions of glucose and glucose-derived intermediates with protein and other amino compounds. This emphasizes the significant role of the food matrix in controlling the Maillard reaction.

Influence of temperature on pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum (Hemiptera: Aphididae) resistance to natural enemy attack

The ability to resist or avoid natural enemy attack is a critically important insect life history trait, yet little is understood of how these traits may be affected by temperature. This study investigated how different genotypes of the pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris, a pest of leguminous crops, varied in resistance to three different natural enemies (a fungal pathogen, two species of parasitoid wasp and a coccinellid beetle), and whether expression of resistance was influenced by temperature. Substantial clonal variation in resistance to the three natural enemies was found. Temperature influenced the number of aphids succumbing to the fungal pathogen Erynia neoaphidis Remaudiere & Hermebert, with resistance increasing at higher temperatures (18 vs. 28degreesC). A temperature difference of 5degreesC (18 vs. 23degreesC) did not affect the ability of A. pisum to resist attack by the parasitoids Aphidius ervi Haliday and A. eadyi Stary Gonzalez & Hall. Escape behaviour from foraging coccinellid beetles (Hippodamia convergens Guerin-Meneville) was not directly influenced by aphid clone or temperature (16 vs. 21degreesC). However, there were significant interactions between clone and temperature (while most clones did not respond to temperature, one was less likely to escape at 16degreesC), and between aphid clone and ladybird presence (some clones showed greater changes in escape behaviour in response to the presence of foraging coccinellids than others). Therefore, while larger temperature differences may alter interactions between Acyrthosiphon pisum and an entomopathogen, there is little evidence to suggest that smaller changes in temperature will alter pea aphid-natural enemy interactions.