Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclically and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market

Towards the "cult of the equity"? Insurance companies and the interwar capital market

This article examines the ways in which insurance companies modified their investment policies during the interwar years, arguing that this period marked the start of the transition from ‘traditional’ to ‘modern’ investment practice. Economic and financial conditions raised considerable doubts regarding the suitability of traditional insurance investments, while competitive conditions forced insurance offices to seek higher-yielding assets. These pressures led to a considerable increase in the proportion of new investment devoted to corporate securities, including ordinary shares. Meanwhile new insurance investment philosophies began to be advocated, which accorded both legitimacy and importance to the role of ordinary shares in insurance portfolios.

Ownership, occupation and risk: a view of the City of London office market

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE-sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk in a market strongly influenced by the cyclical behaviour and shocks of the international financial system.

Consumer robotic products: studying the factors that influence market adoption

The aim of this article is to identify the key factors that are associated with the adoption of a commercial robot in the home. This article is based on the development of the robot product Cybot by the University of Reading in conjunction with a publisher (Eaglemoss International Ltd.). The robots were distributed through a new part-work magazine series (Ultimate Real Robots) that had long-term customer usage and retention. A part-work is a serial publication that is issued periodically (e.g., every two weeks), usually in magazine format, and builds into a complete collection. This magazine focused on robotics and was accompanied by cover-mounted component parts that could be assembled, with instructions, by the user to build a working robot over the series. In total, the product contributed over half a million operational domestic robots to the world market, selling over 20 million robot part-work magazines across 18 countries, thereby providing a unique breadth of insight. Gaining a better understanding of the overall attitudes that customers of this product had toward robots in the home, their perception of what such devices could deliver and how they would wish to interact with them should provide results applicable to the domestic appliance, assistance/care, entertainment, and educational markets.

Concordance in global office market cycles

A large proportion of international real estate investment is concentrated in the office markets of the world’s largest cities. However, many of these global cities are also key financial services centres, highlighting the possibility of reduced economic diversification from an investor’s perspective. This paper assesses the degree of synchronization in cycles across twenty of the world’s largest office markets, finding evidence of significant concordance across a large number of markets. The results highlight the problems associated with commonalities in the underlying economic bases of the markets. The concentration of investment also raises the possibility of common flow of funds effects that may further reduce diversification opportunities.