Secondary cyclogenesis along an occluded front leading to damaging wind gusts: windstorm Kyrill, January 2007

Windstorm Kyrill affected large parts of Europe in January 2007 and caused widespread havoc and loss of life. In this study the formation of a secondary cyclone, Kyill II, along the occluded front of the mature cyclone Kyrill and the occurrence of severe wind gusts as Kyrill II passed over Germany are investigated with the help of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. Kyrill underwent an explosive cyclogenesis south of Greenland as the storm crossed polewards of an intense upper-level jet stream. Later in its life cycle secondary cyclogenesis occurred just west of the British Isles. The formation of Kyrill II along the occluded front was associated (a) with frontolytic strain and (b) with strong diabatic heating in combination with a developing upper-level shortwave trough. Sensitivity studies with reduced latent heat release feature a similar development but a weaker secondary cyclone, revealing the importance of diabatic processes during the formation of Kyrill II. Kyrill II moved further towards Europe and its development was favored by a split jet structure aloft, which maintained the cyclone’s exceptionally deep core pressure (below 965 hPa) for at least 36 hours. The occurrence of hurricane force winds related to the strong cold front over North and Central Germany is analyzed using convection-permitting simulations. The lower troposphere exhibits conditional instability, a turbulent flow and evaporative cooling. Simulation at high spatio-temporal resolution suggests that the downward mixing of high momentum (the wind speed at 875 hPa widely exceeded 45 m s-1) accounts for widespread severe surface wind gusts, which is in agreement with observed widespread losses.

ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set

ERA-Interim/Land is a global land surface reanalysis data set covering the period 1979–2010. It describes the evolution of soil moisture, soil temperature and snowpack. ERA-Interim/Land is the result of a single 32-year simulation with the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) land surface model driven by meteorological forcing from the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis and precipitation adjustments based on monthly GPCP v2.1 (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The horizontal resolution is about 80 km and the time frequency is 3-hourly. ERA-Interim/Land includes a number of parameterization improvements in the land surface scheme with respect to the original ERA-Interim data set, which makes it more suitable for climate studies involving land water resources. The quality of ERA-Interim/Land is assessed by comparing with ground-based and remote sensing observations. In particular, estimates of soil moisture, snow depth, surface albedo, turbulent latent and sensible fluxes, and river discharges are verified against a large number of site measurements. ERA-Interim/Land provides a global integrated and coherent estimate of soil moisture and snow water equivalent, which can also be used for the initialization of numerical weather prediction and climate models.

A diabatically-generated potential vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three simulated extratropical cyclones

The structure of near-tropopause potential vorticity (PV) acts as a primary control on the evolution of extratropical cyclones. Diabatic processes such as the latent heating found in ascending moist warm conveyor belts modify PV. A dipole in diabatically-generated PV (hereafter diabatic PV) straddling the extratropical tropopause, with the positive pole above the negative pole, was diagnosed in a recently published analysis of a simulated extratropical cyclone. This PV dipole has the potential to significantly modify the propagation of Rossby waves and the growth of baroclinically-unstable waves. This previous analysis was based on a single case study simulated with 12-km horizontal grid spacing and parameterized convection. Here, the dipole is investigated in three additional cold-season extratropical cyclones simulated in both convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting model configurations. A diabatic PV dipole across the extratropical tropopause is diagnosed in all three cases. The amplitude of the dipole saturates approximately 36 hours from the time diabatic PV is accumulated. The node elevation of the dipole varies between 2-4 PVU in the three cases, and the amplitude of the system-averaged dipole varies between 0.2-0.4 PVU. The amplitude of the negative pole is similar in the convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting simulations. The positive pole, which is generated by long-wave radiative cooling, is weak in the convection-permitting simulations due to the small domain size which limits the accumulation of diabatic tendencies within the interior of the domain. The possible correspondence between the diabatic PV dipole and the extratropical tropopause inversion layer is discussed.

Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main ascending air masses within extratropical cyclones. They often exhibit strong condensation and precipitation, associated with ascent on large scales or embedded convection. Most of the air outflows into the upper troposphere as part of a ridge. Such ridges are an integral part of Rossby waves propagating along the tropopause and are identified with a negative potential vorticity (PV) anomaly and associated anticyclonic circulation. It has been argued that diabatic modification of PV in WCBs has an important influence on the extent of the ridge, propagation of Rossby waves and weather impacts downstream. Following the coherent ensemble of trajectories defining a WCB, PV is expected to increase with time while below the level of maximum latent heating and then decrease as trajectories ascend above the heating maximum. In models, it is found that the net change is approximately zero, so that the average PV of the WCB outflow is almost equal to the PV of its inflow. Here, the conditions necessary for this evolution are explored analytically using constraints arising from the conservation of circulation. It is argued that the net PV change is insensitive to the details of diabatic processes and the PV maximum midway along a WCB depends primarily on the net diabatic transport of mass from the inflow to the outflow layer. The main effect of diabatic processes within a WCB is to raise the isentropic level of the outflow, rather than to modify PV.

Supply management capabilities, routine bundles and their impact on firm performance

Despite the generally positive contribution of supply management capabilities to firm performance their respective routines require more depth of assessment. Using the resource-based view we examine four routines bundles comprising ostensive and performative aspects of supply management capability – supply management integration, coordinated sourcing, collaboration management and performance assessment. Using structural equation modelling we measure supply management capability empirically as a second-order latent variable and estimate its effect on a series of financial and operational performance measures. The routines-based approach allows us to demonstrate a different, more fine-grained approach for assessing consistent bundles of homogeneous patterns of activity across firms. The results suggest supply management capability is formed of internally consistent routine bundles, which are significantly related to financial performance, mediated by operational performance. Our results confirm an indirect effect of firm performance for ‘core’ routines forming the architecture of a supply management capability. Supply management capability primarily improves the operational performance of the business, which is subsequently translated into improved financial performance. The study is significant for practice as it offers a different view about the face-valid rationale of supply management directly influencing firm financial performance. We confound this assumption, prompting caution when placing too much importance on directly assessing supply management capability using financial performance of the business.

Gaussian processes autoencoder for dimensionality reduction

Learning low dimensional manifold from highly nonlinear data of high dimensionality has become increasingly important for discovering intrinsic representation that can be utilized for data visualization and preprocessing. The autoencoder is a powerful dimensionality reduction technique based on minimizing reconstruction error, and it has regained popularity because it has been efficiently used for greedy pretraining of deep neural networks. Compared to Neural Network (NN), the superiority of Gaussian Process (GP) has been shown in model inference, optimization and performance. GP has been successfully applied in nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction (DR) algorithms, such as Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GPLVM). In this paper we propose the Gaussian Processes Autoencoder Model (GPAM) for dimensionality reduction by extending the classic NN based autoencoder to GP based autoencoder. More interestingly, the novel model can also be viewed as back constrained GPLVM (BC-GPLVM) where the back constraint smooth function is represented by a GP. Experiments verify the performance of the newly proposed model.

Tensor regression based on linked multiway parameter analysis

Classical regression methods take vectors as covariates and estimate the corresponding vectors of regression parameters. When addressing regression problems on covariates of more complex form such as multi-dimensional arrays (i.e. tensors), traditional computational models can be severely compromised by ultrahigh dimensionality as well as complex structure. By exploiting the special structure of tensor covariates, the tensor regression model provides a promising solution to reduce the model’s dimensionality to a manageable level, thus leading to efficient estimation. Most of the existing tensor-based methods independently estimate each individual regression problem based on tensor decomposition which allows the simultaneous projections of an input tensor to more than one direction along each mode. As a matter of fact, multi-dimensional data are collected under the same or very similar conditions, so that data share some common latent components but can also have their own independent parameters for each regression task. Therefore, it is beneficial to analyse regression parameters among all the regressions in a linked way. In this paper, we propose a tensor regression model based on Tucker Decomposition, which identifies not only the common components of parameters across all the regression tasks, but also independent factors contributing to each particular regression task simultaneously. Under this paradigm, the number of independent parameters along each mode is constrained by a sparsity-preserving regulariser. Linked multiway parameter analysis and sparsity modeling further reduce the total number of parameters, with lower memory cost than their tensor-based counterparts. The effectiveness of the new method is demonstrated on real data sets.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 1: Structure parameters

Scintillometry, a form of ground-based remote sensing, provides the capability to estimate surface heat fluxes over scales of a few hundred metres to kilometres. Measurements are spatial averages, making this technique particularly valuable over areas with moderate heterogeneity such as mixed agricultural or urban environments. In this study, we present the structure parameters of temperature and humidity, which can be related to the sensible and latent heat fluxes through similarity theory, for a suburban area in the UK. The fluxes are provided in the second paper of this two-part series. A millimetre-wave scintillometer was combined with an infrared scintillometer along a 5.5 km path over northern Swindon. The pairing of these two wavelengths offers sensitivity to both temperature and humidity fluctuations, and the correlation between wavelengths is also used to retrieve the path-averaged temperature–humidity correlation. Comparison is made with structure parameters calculated from an eddy covariance station located close to the centre of the scintillometer path. The performance of the measurement techniques under different conditions is discussed. Similar behaviour is seen between the two data sets at sub-daily timescales. For the two summer-to-winter periods presented here, similar evolution is displayed across the seasons. A higher vegetation fraction within the scintillometer source area is consistent with the lower Bowen ratio observed (midday Bowen ratio < 1) compared with more built-up areas around the eddy covariance station. The energy partitioning is further explored in the companion paper.

JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

Studies of climate change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere have been completed without recognition of the integrated nature of the biosphere. Improved assessment of the impacts of climate change on food and water security requires the development and use of models not only representing each component but also their interactions. To meet this requirement the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model has been modified to include a generic parametrisation of annual crops. The new model, JULES-crop, is described and evaluation at global and site levels for the four globally important crops; wheat, soybean, maize and rice. JULES-crop demonstrates skill in simulating the inter-annual variations of yield for maize and soybean at the global and country levels, and for wheat for major spring wheat producing countries. The impact of the new parametrisation, compared to the standard configuration, on the simulation of surface heat fluxes is largely an alteration of the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes during the later part of the growing season. Further evaluation at the site level shows the model captures the seasonality of leaf area index, gross primary production and canopy height better than in the standard JULES. However, this does not lead to an improvement in the simulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The performance of JULES-crop from both an Earth system and crop yield model perspective is encouraging. However, more effort is needed to develop the parametrisation of the model for specific applications. Key future model developments identified include the introduction of processes such as irrigation and nitrogen limitation which will enable better representation of the spatial variability in yield.

Freshwater transport in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system: a passive ocean

Conservation of water demands that meridional ocean and atmosphere freshwater transports (FWT) are of equal magnitude but opposite in direction. This suggests that the atmospheric FWT and its associated latent heat (LH) transport could be thought of as a \textquotedblleft coupled ocean/atmosphere mode\textquotedblright. But what is the true nature of this coupling? Is the ocean passive or active? Here we analyze a series of simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model employing highly idealized geometries but with markedly different coupled climates and patterns of ocean circulation. Exploiting streamfunctions in specific humidity coordinates for the atmosphere and salt coordinates for the ocean to represent FWT in their respective medium, we find that atmospheric FWT/LH transport is essentially independent of the ocean state. Ocean circulation and salinity distribution adjust to achieve a return freshwater pathway demanded of them by the atmosphere. So, although ocean and atmosphere FWTs are indeed coupled by mass conservation, the ocean is a passive component acting as a reservoir of freshwater.

The neurogenic potential of astrocytes is regulated by inflammatory signals

Although the adult brain contains neural stem cells (NSCs) that generate new neurons throughout life, these astrocyte-like populations are restricted to two discrete niches. Despite their terminally differentiated phenotype, adult parenchymal astrocytes can re-acquire NSC-like characteristics following injury, and as such, these 'reactive' astrocytes offer an alternative source of cells for central nervous system (CNS) repair following injury or disease. At present, the mechanisms that regulate the potential of different types of astrocytes are poorly understood. We used in vitro and ex vivo astrocytes to identify candidate pathways important for regulation of astrocyte potential. Using in vitro neural progenitor cell (NPC)-derived astrocytes, we found that exposure of more lineage-restricted astrocytes to either tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) (via nuclear factor-κB (NFκB)) or the bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) inhibitor, noggin, led to re-acquisition of NPC properties accompanied by transcriptomic and epigenetic changes consistent with a more neurogenic, NPC-like state. Comparative analyses of microarray data from in vitro-derived and ex vivo postnatal parenchymal astrocytes identified several common pathways and upstream regulators associated with inflammation (including transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1 and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ)) and cell cycle control (including TP53) as candidate regulators of astrocyte phenotype and potential. We propose that inflammatory signalling may control the normal, progressive restriction in potential of differentiating astrocytes as well as under reactive conditions and represent future targets for therapies to harness the latent neurogenic capacity of parenchymal astrocytes.

Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models

Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds.

An assessment of air-sea heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses

Sixteen monthly air–sea heat flux products from global ocean/coupled reanalyses are compared over 1993–2009 as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP). Objectives include assessing the global heat closure, the consistency of temporal variability, comparison with other flux products, and documenting errors against in situ flux measurements at a number of OceanSITES moorings. The ensemble of 16 ORA-IP flux estimates has a global positive bias over 1993–2009 of 4.2 ± 1.1 W m−2. Residual heat gain (i.e., surface flux + assimilation increments) is reduced to a small positive imbalance (typically, +1–2 W m−2). This compensation between surface fluxes and assimilation increments is concentrated in the upper 100 m. Implied steady meridional heat transports also improve by including assimilation sources, except near the equator. The ensemble spread in surface heat fluxes is dominated by turbulent fluxes (>40 W m−2 over the western boundary currents). The mean seasonal cycle is highly consistent, with variability between products mostly <10 W m−2. The interannual variability has consistent signal-to-noise ratio (~2) throughout the equatorial Pacific, reflecting ENSO variability. Comparisons at tropical buoy sites (10°S–15°N) over 2007–2009 showed too little ocean heat gain (i.e., flux into the ocean) in ORA-IP (up to 1/3 smaller than buoy measurements) primarily due to latent heat flux errors in ORA-IP. Comparisons with the Stratus buoy (20°S, 85°W) over a longer period, 2001–2009, also show the ORA-IP ensemble has 16 W m−2 smaller net heat gain, nearly all of which is due to too much latent cooling caused by differences in surface winds imposed in ORA-IP.

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.

Seasonal surface urban energy balance and wintertime stability simulated using three land-surface models in the high-latitude city Helsinki

The performance of three urban land surface models, run in offline mode, with their default external parameters, is evaluated for two distinctly different sites in Helsinki: Torni and Kumpula. The former is a dense city centre site with 22% vegetation, while the latter is a suburban site with over 50% vegetation. At both locations the models are compared against sensible and latent heat fluxes measured using the eddy covariance technique, along with snow depth observations. The cold climate experienced by the city causes strong seasonal variations that include snow cover and stable atmospheric conditions. Most of the time the three models are able to account for the differences between the study areas as well as the seasonal and diurnal variability of the energy balance components. However, the performances are not systematic across the modelled components, season and surface type. The net all-wave radiation is well simulated, with the greatest uncertainties related to snowmelt timing, when the fraction of snow cover has a key role, particularly in determining the surface albedo. For the turbulent fluxes, more variation between the models is seen which can partly be explained by the different methods in their calculation and partly by surface parameter values. For the sensible heat flux, simulation of wintertime values was the main problem, which also leads to issues in predicting near-surface stabilities particularly at the dense city centre site. All models have the most difficulties in simulating latent heat flux. This study particularly emphasizes that improvements are needed in the parameterization of anthropogenic heat flux and thermal parameters in winter, snow cover in spring and evapotranspiration in order to improve the surface energy balance modelling in cold climate cities.