Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia

Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is − 8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of − 17% (wheat), − 5% (maize), − 15% (sorghum) and − 10% (millet) and across South Asia of − 16% (maize) and − 11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of > 3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.

Identification of critical residues in the active site of porcine membrane-bound aminopeptidase P

The membrane-bound form of mammalian aminopeptidase P (AP-P; EC 3.4. 11.9) is a mono-zinc-containing enzyme that lacks any of the typical metal binding motifs found in other zinc metalloproteases. To identify residues involved in metal binding and catalysis, sequence and structural information was used to align the sequence of porcine membrane-bound AP-P with other members of the peptidase clan MG, including Escherichia coli AP-P and methionyl aminopeptidases. Residues predicted to be critical for activity were mutated and the resultant proteins were expressed in COS-1 cells. Immunoelectrophoretic blot analysis was used to compare the levels of expression of the mutant proteins, and their ability to hydrolyze bradykinin and Gly-Pro-hydroxyPro was assessed. Asp449, Asp460, His523, Glu554, and Glu568 are predicted to serve as metal ion ligands in the active site, and mutagenesis of these residues resulted in fully glycosylated proteins that were catalytically inactive. Mutation of His429 and His532 also resulted in catalytically inactive proteins, and these residues, by analogy with E. coli AP-P, are likely to play a role in shuttling protons during catalysis. These studies indicate that mammalian membrane-bound AP-P has an active-site configuration similar to that of other members of the peptidase clan MG, which is compatible with either a dual metal ion model or a single metal ion in the active site. The latter model is consistent, however, with the known metal stoichiometry of both the membrane-bound and cytosolic forms of AP-P and with a recently proposed model for methionyl aminopeptidase.

Carbon monoxide inhibits L-type Ca2+ channels via redox modulation of key cysteine residues by mitochondrial reactive oxygen species

Conditions of stress, such as myocardial infarction, stimulate up-regulation of heme oxygenase (HO-1) to provide cardioprotection. Here, we show that CO, a product of heme catabolism by HO-1, directly inhibits native rat cardiomyocyte L-type Ca2+ currents and the recombinant alpha1C subunit of the human cardiac L-type Ca2+ channel. CO (applied via a recognized CO donor molecule or as the dissolved gas) caused reversible, voltage-independent channel inhibition, which was dependent on the presence of a spliced insert in the cytoplasmic C-terminal region of the channel. Sequential molecular dissection and point mutagenesis identified three key cysteine residues within the proximal 31 amino acids of the splice insert required for CO sensitivity. CO-mediated inhibition was independent of nitric oxide and protein kinase G but was prevented by antioxidants and the reducing agent, dithiothreitol. Inhibition of NADPH oxidase and xanthine oxidase did not affect the inhibitory actions of CO. Instead, inhibitors of complex III (but not complex I) of the mitochondrial electron transport chain and a mitochondrially targeted antioxidant (Mito Q) fully prevented the effects of CO. Our data indicate that the cardioprotective effects of HO-1 activity may be attributable to an inhibitory action of CO on cardiac L-type Ca2+ channels. Inhibition arises from the ability of CO to promote generation of reactive oxygen species from complex III of mitochondria. This in turn leads to redox modulation of any or all of three critical cysteine residues in the channel's cytoplasmic C-terminal tail, resulting in channel inhibition.

Predicting the risks from climate change to forage and crop production for animal feed

Climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather. Projections of climate impacts on feed crops show that there will likely be opportunities for increased productivity as well as considerable threats to crop productivity in different parts of the world over the next 20 to 50 years. On balance, we anticipate substantial risks to the volume, volatility, and quality of animal feed supply chains from climate change. Adaptation strategies and investment informed by high quality research at the interface of crop and animal science will be needed, both to respond to climate change and to meet the increasing demand for animal products expected over the coming decades.

Contributions of roots and rootstocks to sustainable, intensified crop production

Sustainable intensification is seen as the main route for meeting the world’s increasing demands for food and fibre. As demands mount for greater efficiency in the use of resources to achieve this goal, so the focus on roots and rootstocks and their role in acquiring water and nutrients, and overcoming pests and pathogens, is increasing. The purpose of this review is to explore some of the ways in which understanding root systems and their interactions with soils could contribute to the development of more sustainable systems of intensive production. Physical interactions with soil particles limit root growth if soils are dense, but root–soil contact is essential for optimal growth and uptake of water and nutrients. X-ray microtomography demonstrated that maize roots elongated more rapidly with increasing root–soil contact, as long as mechanical impedance was not limiting root elongation, while lupin was less sensitive to changes in root–soil contact. In addition to selecting for root architecture and rhizosphere properties, the growth of many plants in cultivated systems is profoundly affected by selection of an appropriate rootstock. Several mechanisms for scion control by rootstocks have been suggested, but the causal signals are still uncertain and may differ between crop species. Linkage map locations for quantitative trait loci for disease resistance and other traits of interest in rootstock breeding are becoming available. Designing root systems and rootstocks for specific environments is becoming a feasible target.

Feeding nine billion: the challenge to sustainable crop production

In the recent past there was a widespread working assumption in many countries that problems of food production had been solved, and that food security was largely a matter of distribution and access to be achieved principally by open markets. The events of 2008 challenged these assumptions, and made public a much wider debate about the costs of current food production practices to the environment and whether these could be sustained. As in the past 50 years, it is anticipated that future increases in crop production will be achieved largely by increasing yields per unit area rather than by increasing the area of cropped land. However, as yields have increased, so the ratio of photosynthetic energy captured to energy expended in crop production has decreased. This poses a considerable challenge: how to increase yield while simultaneously reducing energy consumption (allied to greenhouse gas emissions) and utilizing resources such as water and phosphate more efficiently. Given the timeframe in which the increased production has to be realized, most of the increase will need to come from crop genotypes that are being bred now, together with known agronomic and management practices that are currently under-developed.

Implications of climate change for diseases, crop yields and food security

Accelerated climate change affects components of complex biological interactions differentially, often causing changes that are difficult to predict. Crop yield and quality are affected by climate change directly, and indirectly, through diseases that themselves will change but remain important. These effects are difficult to dissect and model as their mechanistic bases are generally poorly understood. Nevertheless, a combination of integrated modelling from different disciplines and multi-factorial experimentation will advance our understanding and prioritisation of the challenges. Food security brings in additional socio-economic, geographical and political factors. Enhancing resilience to the effects of climate change is important for all these systems and functional diversity is one of the most effective targets for improved sustainability.

Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years

Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop–country combinations examined. For several crop–country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability.

Evaluation of diagnostic molecular markers for DUS phenotypic assessment in the cereal crop, barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare L.)

The deployment of genetic markers is of interest in crop assessment and breeding programmes, due to the potential savings in cost and time afforded. As part of the internationally recognised framework for the awarding of Plant Breeders’ Rights (PBR), new barley variety submissions are evaluated using a suite of morphological traits to ensure they are distinct, uniform and stable (DUS) in comparison to all previous submissions. Increasing knowledge of the genetic control of many of these traits provides the opportunity to assess the potential of deploying diagnostic/perfect genetic markers in place of phenotypic assessment. Here, we identify a suite of 25 genetic markers assaying for 14 DUS traits, and implement them using a single genotyping platform (KASPar). Using a panel of 169 UK barley varieties, we show that phenotypic state at three of these traits can be perfectly predicted by genotype. Predictive values for an additional nine traits ranged from 81 to 99 %. Finally, by comparison of varietal discrimination based on phenotype and genotype resulted in correlation of 0.72, indicating that deployment of molecular markers for varietal discrimination could be feasible in the near future. Due to the flexibility of the genotyping platform used, the genetic markers described here can be used in any number or combination, in-house or by outsourcing, allowing flexible deployment by users. These markers are likely to find application where tracking of specific alleles is required in breeding programmes, or for potential use within national assessment programmes for the awarding of PBRs.

Coassembly in binary mixtures of peptide amphiphiles containing oppositely charged residues

The self-assembly in water of designed peptide amphiphile (PA) C16-ETTES containing two anionic residues and its mixtures with C16-KTTKS containing two cationic residues has been investigated. Multiple spectroscopy, microscopy, and scattering techniques are used to examine ordering extending from the β-sheet structures up to the fibrillar aggregate structure. The peptide amphiphiles both comprise a hexadecyl alkyl chain and a charged pentapeptide headgroup containing two charged residues. For C16-ETTES, the critical aggregation concentration was determined by fluorescence experiments. FTIR and CD spectroscopy were used to examine β-sheet formation. TEM revealed highly extended tape nanostructures with some striped regions corresponding to bilayer structures viewed edge-on. Small-angle X-ray scattering showed a main 5.3 nm bilayer spacing along with a 3 nm spacing. These spacings are assigned respectively to predominant hydrated bilayers and a fraction of dehydrated bilayers. Signs of cooperative self-assembly are observed in the mixtures, including reduced bundling of peptide amphiphile aggregates (extended tape structures) and enhanced β-sheet formation.

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.

An improved methodology for the recovery of Zea mays and other large crop pollen, with implications for environmental archaeology in the Neotropics

We present a simple sieving methodology to aid the recovery of large cultigen pollen grains, such as maize (Zea mays L.), manioc (Manihot esculenta Crantz), and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L.), among others, for the detection of food production using fossil pollen analysis of lake sediments in the tropical Americas. The new methodology was tested on three large study lakes located next to known and/or excavated pre-Columbian archaeological sites in South and Central America. Five paired samples, one treated by sieving, the other prepared using standard methodology, were compared for each of the three sites. Using the new methodology, chemically digested sediment samples were passed through a 53 µm sieve, and the residue was retained, mounted in silicone oil, and counted for large cultigen pollen grains. The filtrate was mounted and analysed for pollen according to standard palynological procedures. Zea mays (L.) was recovered from the sediments of all three study lakes using the sieving technique, where no cultigen pollen had been previously recorded using the standard methodology. Confidence intervals demonstrate there is no significant difference in pollen assemblages between the sieved versus unsieved samples. Equal numbers of exotic Lycopodium spores added to both the filtrate and residue of the sieved samples allow for direct comparison of cultigen pollen abundance with the standard terrestrial pollen count. Our technique enables the isolation and rapid scanning for maize and other cultigen pollen in lake sediments, which, in conjunction with charcoal and pollen records, is key to determining land-use patterns and the environmental impact of pre-Columbian societies.

High Resolution Melt (HRM) analysis is an efficient tool to genotype EMS mutants in complex crop genomes

Background: Targeted Induced Loci Lesions IN Genomes (TILLING) is increasingly being used to generate and identify mutations in target genes of crop genomes. TILLING populations of several thousand lines have been generated in a number of crop species including Brassica rapa. Genetic analysis of mutants identified by TILLING requires an efficient, high-throughput and cost effective genotyping method to track the mutations through numerous generations. High resolution melt (HRM) analysis has been used in a number of systems to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertion/deletions (IN/DELs) enabling the genotyping of different types of samples. HRM is ideally suited to high-throughput genotyping of multiple TILLING mutants in complex crop genomes. To date it has been used to identify mutants and genotype single mutations. The aim of this study was to determine if HRM can facilitate downstream analysis of multiple mutant lines identified by TILLING in order to characterise allelic series of EMS induced mutations in target genes across a number of generations in complex crop genomes. Results: We demonstrate that HRM can be used to genotype allelic series of mutations in two genes, BraA.CAX1a and BraA.MET1.a in Brassica rapa. We analysed 12 mutations in BraA.CAX1.a and five in BraA.MET1.a over two generations including a back-cross to the wild-type. Using a commercially available HRM kit and the Lightscanner™ system we were able to detect mutations in heterozygous and homozygous states for both genes. Conclusions: Using HRM genotyping on TILLING derived mutants, it is possible to generate an allelic series of mutations within multiple target genes rapidly. Lines suitable for phenotypic analysis can be isolated approximately 8-9 months (3 generations) from receiving M3 seed of Brassica rapa from the RevGenUK TILLING service.