Modelling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance

Four CO2 concentration inversions and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) versions 2.1 and 3 are used to provide benchmarks for climate-driven modeling of the global land-atmosphere CO2 flux and the contribution of wildfire to this flux. The Land surface Processes and exchanges (LPX) model is introduced. LPX is based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Spread and Intensity of FIRE (LPJ-SPITFIRE) model with amended fire probability calculations. LPX omits human ignition sources yet simulates many aspects of global fire adequately. It captures the major features of observed geographic pattern in burnt area and its seasonal timing and the unimodal relationship of burnt area to precipitation. It simulates features of geographic variation in the sign of the interannual correlations of burnt area with antecedent dryness and precipitation. It simulates well the interannual variability of the global total land-atmosphere CO2 flux. There are differences among the global burnt area time series from GFED2.1, GFED3 and LPX, but some features are common to all. GFED3 fire CO2 fluxes account for only about 1/3 of the variation in total CO2 flux during 1997–2005. This relationship appears to be dominated by the strong climatic dependence of deforestation fires. The relationship of LPX-modeled fire CO2 fluxes to total CO2 fluxes is weak. Observed and modeled total CO2 fluxes track the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) closely; GFED3 burnt area and global fire CO2 flux track the ENSO much less so. The GFED3 fire CO2 flux-ENSO connection is most prominent for the El Niño of 1997–1998, which produced exceptional burning conditions in several regions, especially equatorial Asia. The sign of the observed relationship between ENSO and fire varies regionally, and LPX captures the broad features of this variation. These complexities underscore the need for process-based modeling to assess the consequences of global change for fire and its implications for the carbon cycle.

The national dialogue on behaviour change in UK climate policy: some observations on responsibility, agency and political dimensions

This chapter explores the politics around the role of agency in the UK climate change debate. Government interventions on the demand side of consumption have increasingly involved attempts to obtain greater traction with the values, attitudes and beliefs of citizens in relation to climate change and also in terms of influencing consumer behaviour at an individual level. With figures showing that approximately 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions are attributable to household and transport behaviour, policy initiatives have progressively focused on the facilitation of “sustainable behaviours”. Evidence suggests however, that mobilisation of pro-environmental attitudes in addressing the perceived “value-action gap” has so far had limited success. Research in this field suggests that there is a more significant and nuanced “gap” between context and behaviour; a relationship that perhaps provides a more adroit reflection of reasons why people do not necessarily react in the way that policy-makers anticipate. Tracing the development of the UK Government’s behaviour change agenda over the last decade, we posit that a core reason for the limitations of this programme relates to an excessively narrow focus on the individual. This has served to obscure some of the wider political and economic aspects of the debate in favour of a more simplified discussion. The second part of the chapter reports findings from a series of focus groups exploring some of the wider political views that people hold around household energy habits, purchase and use of domestic appliances, and transport behaviour-and discusses these insights in relation to the literature on the agenda’s apparent limitations. The chapter concludes by considering whether the aims of the Big Society approach (recently established by the UK’s Coalition Government) hold the potential to engage more directly with some of these issues or whether they merely constitute a “repackaging” of the individualism agenda.

High resolution simulation of the variability of surface energy balance fluxes across central London with urban zones for energy partitioning

The parameterization of surface heat-flux variability in urban areas relies on adequate representation of surface characteristics. Given the horizontal resolutions (e.g. ≈0.1–1km) currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, properties of the urban surface (e.g. vegetated/built surfaces, street-canyon geometries) often have large spatial variability. Here, a new approach based on Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) is tested within a NWP model (Weather Research and Forecasting model;WRF v3.2.1) for Greater London. The urban land-surface scheme is the Noah/Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM). Detailed surface information (horizontal resolution 1 km)in central London shows that the UZE offers better characterization of surface properties and their variability compared to default WRF-SLUCM input parameters. In situ observations of the surface energy fluxes and near-surface meteorological variables are used to select the radiation and turbulence parameterization schemes and to evaluate the land-surface scheme

Linking urban water balance and energy balance models to analyse urban design options

Using a water balance modelling framework, this paper analyses the effects of urban design on the water balance, with a focus on evapotranspiration and storm water. First, two quite different urban water balance models are compared: Aquacycle which has been calibrated for a suburban catchment in Canberra, Australia, and the single-source urban evapotranspiration-interception scheme (SUES), an energy-based approach with a biophysically advanced representation of interception and evapotranspiration. A fair agreement between the two modelled estimates of evapotranspiration was significantly improved by allowing the vegetation cover (leaf area index, LAI) to vary seasonally, demonstrating the potential of SUES to quantify the links between water sensitive urban design and microclimates and the advantage of comparing the two modelling approaches. The comparison also revealed where improvements to SUES are needed, chiefly through improved estimates of vegetation cover dynamics as input to SUES, and more rigorous parameterization of the surface resistance equations using local-scale suburban flux measurements. Second, Aquacycle is used to identify the impact of an array of water sensitive urban design features on the water balance terms. This analysis confirms the potential to passively control urban microclimate by suburban design features that maximize evapotranspiration, such as vegetated roofs. The subsequent effects on daily maximum air temperatures are estimated using an atmospheric boundary layer budget. Potential energy savings of about 2% in summer cooling are estimated from this analysis. This is a clear ‘return on investment’ of using water to maintain urban greenspace, whether as parks distributed throughout an urban area or individual gardens or vegetated roofs.

Market effects of changes in consumers' social responsibility

In a duopoly model of vertical differentiation, we study market equilibrium and the resulting social welfare following an increase in the consumer's willingness to pay (WTP) for products sold by socially responsible manufacturers. Different types of such changes emerge depending on their effects on consumer heterogeneity. We show that, in most cases, increases in the consumers' social consciousness yield higher profits to socially responsible firms and may lead to higher levels of social welfare, provided that the market structure is left unchanged. However, when an increase in the consumer's social consciousness changes the market structure, welfare may fall, while the duopolists' profits rise. The resulting tension between private and social interest calls for a cautious attitude toward information campaigns aimed at increasing the consumer's social consciousness.

Urban surface energy balance models: model characteristics and methodology for a comparison study

Many urban surface energy balance models now exist. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a concrete slab, to those which incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed within the atmospheric boundary layer. While many of these schemes have been evaluated against observations, with some models even compared with the same data sets, such evaluations have not been undertaken in a controlled manner to enable direct comparison. For other types of climate model, for instance the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) experiments (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1993), such controlled comparisons have been shown to provide important insights into both the mechanics of the models and the physics of the real world. This paper describes the progress that has been made to date on a systematic and controlled comparison of urban surface schemes. The models to be considered, and their key attributes, are described, along with the methodology to be used for the evaluation.

The integration of lipid-sensing and anti-inflammatory effects: how the PPARs play a role in metabolic balance

The peroxisomal proliferating-activated receptors (PPARs) are lipid-sensing transcription factors that have a role in embryonic development, but are primarily known for modulating energy metabolism, lipid storage, and transport, as well as inflammation and wound healing. Currently, there is no consensus as to the overall combined function of PPARs and why they evolved. We hypothesize that the PPARs had to evolve to integrate lipid storage and burning with the ability to reduce oxidative stress, as energy storage is essential for survival and resistance to injury/infection, but the latter increases oxidative stress and may reduce median survival (functional longevity). In a sense, PPARs may be an evolutionary solution to something we call the 'hypoxia-lipid' conundrum, where the ability to store and burn fat is essential for survival, but is a 'double-edged sword', as fats are potentially highly toxic. Ways in which PPARs may reduce oxidative stress involve modulation of mitochondrial uncoupling protein (UCP) expression (thus reducing reactive oxygen species, ROS), optimising forkhead box class O factor (FOXO) activity (by improving whole body insulin sensitivity) and suppressing NFkB (at the transcriptional level). In light of this, we therefore postulate that inflammation-induced PPAR downregulation engenders many of the signs and symptoms of the metabolic syndrome, which shares many features with the acute phase response (APR) and is the opposite of the phenotype associated with calorie restriction and high FOXO activity. In genetically susceptible individuals (displaying the naturally mildly insulin resistant 'thrifty genotype'), suboptimal PPAR activity may follow an exaggerated but natural adipose tissue-related inflammatory signal induced by excessive calories and reduced physical activity, which normally couples energy storage with the ability to mount an immune response. This is further worsened when pancreatic decompensation occurs, resulting in gluco-oxidative stress and lipotoxicity, increased inflammatory insulin resistance and oxidative stress. Reactivating PPARs may restore a metabolic balance and help to adapt the phenotype to a modern lifestyle.

Effects of 3-nitrooxypropanol on methane emission,digestion, and energy and nitrogen balance of lactating dairy cows

The objective was to measure effects of 3-nitrooxypropanol (3NP) on methane production of lactating dairy cows and any associated changes in digestion and energy and nitrogen metabolism. Six Holstein-Friesian dairy cows in mid-lactation were fed twice daily a total mixed ration with maize silage as the primary forage source. Cows received 1 of 3 treatments using an experimental design based on two 3 × 3 Latin squares with 5-wk periods. Treatments were a control placebo or 500 or 2,500 mg/d of 3NP delivered directly into the rumen, via the rumen fistula, in equal doses before each feeding. Measurements of methane production and energy and nitrogen balance were obtained during wk 5 of each period using respiration calorimeters and digestion trials. Measurements of rumen pH (48 h) and postprandial volatile fatty acid and ammonia concentrations were made at the end of wk 4. Daily methane production was reduced by 3NP, but the effects were not dose dependent (reductions of 6.6 and 9.8% for 500 and 2,500 mg/d, respectively). Dosing 3NP had a transitory inhibitory effect on methane production, which may have been due to the product leaving the rumen in liquid outflow or through absorption or metabolism. Changes in rumen concentrations of volatile fatty acids indicated that the pattern of rumen fermentation was affected by both doses of the product, with a decrease in acetate:propionate ratio observed, but that acetate production was inhibited by the higher dose. Dry matter, organic matter, acid detergent fiber, N, and energy digestibility were reduced at the higher dose of the product. The decrease in digestible energy supply was not completely countered by the decrease in methane excretion such that metabolizable energy supply, metabolizable energy concentration of the diet, and net energy balance (milk plus tissue energy) were reduced by the highest dose of 3NP. Similarly, the decrease in nitrogen digestibility at the higher dose of the product was associated with a decrease in body nitrogen balance that was not observed for the lower dose. Milk yield and milk fat concentration and fatty acid composition were not affected but milk protein concentration was greater for the higher dose of 3NP. Twice-daily rumen dosing of 3NP reduced methane production by lactating dairy cows, but the dose of 2,500 mg/d reduced rumen acetate concentration, diet digestibility, and energy supply. Further research is warranted to determine the optimal dose and delivery method of the product. Key words: 3-nitrooxypropanol, methane, digestion, rumen, dairy cow

Diabatic balance model for the equatorial atmosphere

Using an asymptotic expansion, a balance model is derived for the shallow-water equations (SWE) on the equatorial beta-plane that is valid for planetary-scale equatorial dynamics and includes Kelvin waves. In contrast to many theories of tropical dynamics, neither a strict balance between diabatic heating and vertical motion nor a small Froude number is required. Instead, the expansion is based on the smallness of the ratio of meridional to zonal length scales, which can also be interpreted as a separation in time scale. The leading-order model is characterized by a semigeostrophic balance between the zonal wind and meridional pressure gradient, while the meridional wind v vanishes; the model is thus asymptotically nondivergent, and the nonzero correction to v can be found at the next order. Importantly for applications, the diagnostic balance relations are linear for winds when inferring the wind field from mass observations and the winds can be diagnosed without direct observations of diabatic heating. The accuracy of the model is investigated through a set of numerical examples. These examples show that the diagnostic balance relations can remain valid even when the dynamics do not, and the balance dynamics can capture the slow behavior of a rapidly varying solution.

The water balance of northern Africa during the mid-Holocene: an evaluation of the 6ka BP PMIP simulations

Runoff fields over northern Africa (10–25°N, 20°W–30°E) derived from 17 atmospheric general circulation models driven by identical 6 ka BP orbital forcing, sea surface temperatures, and CO2 concentration have been analyzed using a hydrological routing scheme (HYDRA) to simulate changes in lake area. The AGCM-simulated runoff produced six-fold differences in simulated lake area between models, although even the largest simulated changes considerably underestimate the observed changes in lake area during the mid-Holocene. The inter-model differences in simulated lake area are largely due to differences in simulated runoff (the squared correlation coefficient, R2, is 0.84). Most of these differences can be attributed to differences in the simulated precipitation (R2=0.83). The higher correlation between runoff and simulated lake area (R2=0.92) implies that simulated differences in evaporation have a contributory effect. When runoff is calculated using an offline land-surface scheme (BIOME3), the correlation between runoff and simulated lake area is (R2=0.94). Finally, the spatial distribution of simulated precipitation can exert an important control on the overall response.

Evaluation of modelled regional water balance using lake status data: a comparison of 6ka simulations with the NCAR CCM

Variations in lake area and depth reflect climatically induced changes in the water balance of overflowing as well as closed lakes. A new global data base of lake status has been assembled, and is used to compare two simulations for 6 ka (6000 yr ago) made with successive R15 versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). Simulated water balance was expressed as anomalies of annual precipitation minus evaporation (P-E); observed water balance as anomalies of lake status. Comparisons were made visually, by comparing regional averages, and by a statistic that compares the signs of simulated P-E anomalies (smoothly interpolated to the lake sites) with the status anomalies. Both CCM0 and CCM1 showed enhanced Northern-Hemisphere monsoons at 6 ka. Both underestimated the effect, but CCM1 fitted the spatial patterns better. In the northern mid- and high-latitudes the two versions differed more, and fitted the data less satisfactorily. CCM1 performed better than CCM0 in North America and central Eurasia, but not in Europe. Both models (especially CCM0) simulated excessive aridity in interior Eurasia. The models were systematically wrong in the southern mid-latitudes. Problems may have been caused by inadequate treatment of changes in sea-surface conditions in both models. Palaeolake status data will continue to provide a benchmark for the evaluation of modelling improvements.

The four pillars of corporate responsibility: ethics, leadership, personal responsibility and trust

Purpose – This paper aims to examine how to further embed CSR thinking and practice into corporations, particularly in emerging markets, by reviewing and drawing similarities between key issues faced by all senior managers, namely ethics, leadership, personal responsibility and trust. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents a conceptual exploration of global CSR practices using social psychology and overlays this concept with strategic and institutional theory in order to encourage new ways of thinking about CSR adoption, especially in emerging markets. Findings – The paper reveals the importance of shareholder needs on global corporate decision making and applies alternative conceptual models to help businesses to devise better CSR practices and individuals to align their actions to their own values. Originality/value – This paper strongly argues for blending different theoretical foundations from the management and organization literature in order to draw comparisons between current global CSR practice and the potential for its further adoption in emerging markets.

CSR: the co-evolution of grocery multiples in the UK (2005-2010)

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate if CSR is balanced between firm and wider society interests. Design/methodology/approach – A qualitative interpretive hermeneutic approach is used to analyse a variety of publically published secondary sources on the CSR of Tesco, Sainsburys, Morrisons and Co-operative in the UK grocery multiple sector (2005-2010). Findings – CSR strategic outcomes currently favour the firm more than society interests. A multilayered framework in the form of Social Responsibility of the Corporation (SRC) is designed and offered in support of balancing the business-society relationship more evenly. Research limitations/implications – This study is limited to firms originating from within the UK grocery multiple sector. Asda could not be included in the study as it does not publish CSR reports annually in the UK after becoming part of Walmart group. Practical implications – A framework for multi-level standardised definition of CSR in the form of SRC is offered. The inclusion of employees and members of the public on CSR/SRC boards is recommended to foster wider collaboration. The SRC framework promotes standardisation at global level while respecting diversity and firm heterogeneity at firm level. The findings may further contribute to GRI; UN Global Compact; WEF dialogues. Social implications – Recommendations are made to extend CSR board diversity for improved dialogue with communities. The SRC framework may be applied at global; national; industry and firm level. The framework can be applied internationally or locally. Future studies may offer quantitative attributes for balancing CSR/SRC. Originality/value – A globally unique and universally applicable framework for evaluating CSR activities is proposed. Future studies may extend the authors' framework to other industries, national environments or globally in the pursuit of balance between firm and society. Furthermore, firms may also adopt the framework to support CSR activities.

What is the right balance for performance and isolation with virtualization in HPC?

The use of virtualization in high-performance computing (HPC) has been suggested as a means to provide tailored services and added functionality that many users expect from full-featured Linux cluster environments. The use of virtual machines in HPC can offer several benefits, but maintaining performance is a crucial factor. In some instances the performance criteria are placed above the isolation properties. This selective relaxation of isolation for performance is an important characteristic when considering resilience for HPC environments that employ virtualization. In this paper we consider some of the factors associated with balancing performance and isolation in configurations that employ virtual machines. In this context, we propose a classification of errors based on the concept of “error zones”, as well as a detailed analysis of the trade-offs between resilience and performance based on the level of isolation provided by virtualization solutions. Finally, a set of experiments are performed using different virtualization solutions to elucidate the discussion.