Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Quantification of UV-B flux through time using UV-B-absorbing compounds contained in fossil Pinus sporopollenin

• UV-B radiation currently represents c. 1.5% of incoming solar radiation. However, significant changes are known to have occurred in the amount of incoming radiation both on recent and on geological timescales. Until now it has not been possible to reconstruct a detailed measure of UV-B radiation beyond c. 150 yr ago. • Here, we studied the suitability of fossil Pinus spp. pollen to record variations in UV-B flux through time. In view of the large size of the grain and its long fossil history, we hypothesized that this grain could provide a good proxy for recording past variations in UV-B flux. • Two key objectives were addressed: to determine whether there was, similar to other studied species, a clear relationship between UV-B-absorbing compounds in the sporopollenin of extant pollen and the magnitude of UV-B radiation to which it had been exposed; and to determine whether these compounds could be extracted from a small enough sample size of fossil pollen to make reconstruction of a continuous record through time a realistic prospect. • Preliminary results indicate the excellent potential of this species for providing a quantitative record of UV-B through time. Using this technique, we present the first record of UV-B flux during the last 9500 yr from a site near Bergen, Norway.

Black carbon vertical profiles strongly affect its radiative forcing uncertainty

The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

Adverbial quantification and perfective/imperfective interpretive nuances in L2 Portuguese

Slabakova (2006b) poses and directly addresses the question of whether or not there is a maturational effect (a critical/sensitive period) that affects the semantic component. She demonstrates that there is no empirical evidence suggesting that adults are unable to acquire phrasal semantic properties, even when the accessing of semantic universals is conditioned upon the acquisition of L2 morphosyntactic features (see Dekydtspotter and Sprouse 2001, Slabakova and Montrul 2003). In light of this, the authors test for interpretive properties associated with the aspectual projection higher (outer) AspP in advanced English learners of adult L2 Portuguese via their knowledge of [+/- accidental] related nuances in adverbially quantified preterit and imperfect sentences (Lenci and Bertinetto 2000; Menéndez-Benito 2002). In two experiments, the authors test for L2 knowledge of this [+/- accidental] distinction via semantic felicitousness judgments of adverbially quantified preterit and imperfect sentences depending on a supporting context as well as related restrictions on subject DP interpretations. Overall, the data show that advanced learners acquire this distinction. As the authors discuss, the present data support Full Access theories (White 1989, Schwartz and Sprouse 1996; Duffield and White 1999) and the No-Critical Period for semantics position (Slabakova 2006b), demonstrating that the syntax-semantics interface is not an inevitable locus for fossilization.

Understanding the WTA–WTP gap: Attitudes, feelings, uncertainty and personality

We present an experiment designed to study the psychological basis for the willingness to accept (WTA)–willingness to pay (WTP) gap. Specifically, we conduct a standard WTA–WTP economic experiment to replicate the gap and include in it five additional instruments to try to follow the psychological processes producing it. These instruments are designed to measure five psychological constructs we consider especially relevant: (1) attitudes, (2) feelings, (3) familiarity with the target good, (4) risk attitudes, and (5) personality. Our results provide important new insights into the psychological foundations of the WTA–WTP disparity, which can be used to organize some major previous results and cast serious doubts on the claim that the gap might be just a consequence of inappropriate experimental practice.

An environmental uncertainty-based diagnostic reference tool for evaluating the performance of supply chain value streams

This research has responded to the need for diagnostic reference tools explicitly linking the influence of environmental uncertainty and performance within the supply chain. Uncertainty is a key factor influencing performance and an important measure of the operating environment. We develop and demonstrate a novel reference methodology based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) for examining the performance of value streams within the supply chain with specific reference to the level of environmental uncertainty they face. In this paper, using real industrial data, 20 product supply value streams within the European automotive industry sector are evaluated. Two are found to be efficient. The peer reference groups for the underperforming value streams are identified and numerical improvement targets are derived. The paper demonstrates how DEA can be used to guide supply chain improvement efforts through role-model identification and target setting, in a way that recognises the multiple dimensions/outcomes of the supply chain process and the influence of its environmental conditions. We have facilitated the contextualisation of environmental uncertainty and its incorporation into a specific diagnostic reference tool.

Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA-N model

The semi-distributed, dynamic INCA-N model was used to simulate the behaviour of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in two Finnish research catchments. Parameter sensitivity and model structural uncertainty were analysed using generalized sensitivity analysis. The Mustajoki catchment is a forested upstream catchment, while the Savijoki catchment represents intensively cultivated lowlands. In general, there were more influential parameters in Savijoki than Mustajoki. Model results were sensitive to N-transformation rates, vegetation dynamics, and soil and river hydrology. Values of the sensitive parameters were based on long-term measurements covering both warm and cold years. The highest measured DIN concentrations fell between minimum and maximum values estimated during the uncertainty analysis. The lowest measured concentrations fell outside these bounds, suggesting that some retention processes may be missing from the current model structure. The lowest concentrations occurred mainly during low flow periods; so effects on total loads were small.

Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines

A number of studies have addressed the relationship between intra-personal uncertainty and inter-personal disagreement about the future values of economic variables such as output growth and inflation using the SPF. By making use of the SPF respondents' probability forecasts of declines in output, we are able to construct a quarterly series of output growth uncertainty to supplement the annual series that are often used in such analyses. We also consider the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty for probability forecasts of declines in output.

Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

Direct soil moisture controls of future global soil carbon changes: An important source of uncertainty

The nature of the climate–carbon cycle feedback depends critically on the response of soil carbon to climate, including changes in moisture. However, soil moisture–carbon feedback responses have not been investigated thoroughly. Uncertainty in the response of soil carbon to soil moisture changes could arise from uncertainty in the relationship between soil moisture and heterotrophic respiration. We used twelve soil moisture–respiration functions (SMRFs) with a soil carbon model (RothC) and data from a coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model to investigate the impact of direct heterotrophic respiration dependence on soil moisture on the climate carbon cycle feedback. Global changes in soil moisture acted to oppose temperature‐driven decreases in soil carbon and hence tended to increase soil carbon storage. We found considerable uncertainty in soil carbon changes due to the response of soil respiration to soil moisture. The use of different SMRFs resulted in both large losses and small gains in future global soil carbon stocks, whether considering all climate forcings or only moisture changes. Regionally, the greatest range in soil carbon changes across SMRFs was found where the largest soil carbon changes occurred. Further research is needed to constrain the soil moisture–respiration relationship and thus reduce uncertainty in climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. There may also be considerable uncertainty in the regional responses of soil carbon to soil moisture changes since climate model predictions of regional soil moisture changes are less coherent than temperature changes.

Sensitivity of direct radiative forcing by mineral dust to particle characteristics

Airborne dust affects the Earth's energy balance — an impact that is measured in terms of the implied change in net radiation (or radiative forcing, in W m-2) at the top of the atmosphere. There remains considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of direct forcing by airborne dust under current climate. Much of this uncertainty stems from simplified assumptions about mineral dust-particle size, composition and shape, which are applied in remote sensing retrievals of dust characteristics and dust-cycle models. Improved estimates of direct radiative forcing by dust will require improved characterization of the spatial variability in particle characteristics to provide reliable information dust optical properties. This includes constraints on: (1) particle-size distribution, including discrimination of particle subpopulations and quantification of the amount of dust in the sub-10 µm to <0.1 µm mass fraction; (2) particle composition, specifically the abundance of iron oxides, and whether particles consist of single or multi-mineral grains; (3) particle shape, including degree of sphericity and surface roughness, as a function of size and mineralogy; and (4) the degree to which dust particles are aggregated together. The use of techniques that measure the size, composition and shape of individual particles will provide a better basis for optical modelling.

Quantifying errors due to frequency changes and target location uncertainty for radar refractivity retrievals

Radar refractivity retrievals can capture near-surface humidity changes, but noisy phase changes of the ground clutter returns limit the accuracy for both klystron- and magnetron-based systems. Observations with a C-band (5.6 cm) magnetron weather radar indicate that the correction for phase changes introduced by local oscillator frequency changes leads to refractivity errors no larger than 0.25 N units: equivalent to a relative humidity change of only 0.25% at 20°C. Requested stable local oscillator (STALO) frequency changes were accurate to 0.002 ppm based on laboratory measurements. More serious are the random phase change errors introduced when targets are not at the range-gate center and there are changes in the transmitter frequency (ΔfTx) or the refractivity (ΔN). Observations at C band with a 2-μs pulse show an additional 66° of phase change noise for a ΔfTx of 190 kHz (34 ppm); this allows the effect due to ΔN to be predicted. Even at S band with klystron transmitters, significant phase change noise should occur when a large ΔN develops relative to the reference period [e.g., ~55° when ΔN = 60 for the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radars]. At shorter wavelengths (e.g., C and X band) and with magnetron transmitters in particular, refractivity retrievals relative to an earlier reference period are even more difficult, and operational retrievals may be restricted to changes over shorter (e.g., hourly) periods of time. Target location errors can be reduced by using a shorter pulse or identified by a new technique making alternate measurements at two closely spaced frequencies, which could even be achieved with a dual–pulse repetition frequency (PRF) operation of a magnetron transmitter.