Helga's dune: 40 years of dune dynamics in the Namib Desert

The dynamics of a small linear dune on the northern margin of the Namib Sand Sea have been monitored using erosion pins placed at the dune tip since 1969. GPS measurements of these pins enabled estimation of the rates of advance and lateral migration of the dune. The average rate of advance of the dune tip over the period 1969–2012 was 1.99 m yr–1 towards 015°. Rates of advance and lateral movement varied over the period of monitoring, with a decrease in rates of advance by a factor of 50%, but an increase in the rate of lateral movement. Changes in dune behavior appear to be related to changes in wind regime and the vegetation cover of the interdune area, as a result of increased rainfall in recent years. This study demonstrates the dynamic nature of the tip of this dune and its sensitivity to changes in winds and sand supply.

A statistical model for sea surface diurnal warming driven by numercial weather predictions fluxes and winds

A statistical model is derived relating the diurnal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) to the net surface heat flux and surface wind speed from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The model is derived using fluxes and winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) NWP model and SSTs from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). In the model, diurnal warming has a linear dependence on the net surface heat flux integrated since (approximately) dawn and an inverse quadratic dependence on the maximum of the surface wind speed in the same period. The model coefficients are found by matching, for a given integrated heat flux, the frequency distributions of the maximum wind speed and the observed warming. Diurnal cooling, where it occurs, is modelled as proportional to the integrated heat flux divided by the heat capacity of the seasonal mixed layer. The model reproduces the statistics (mean, standard deviation, and 95-percentile) of the diurnal variation of SST seen by SEVIRI and reproduces the geographical pattern of mean warming seen by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). We use the functional dependencies in the statistical model to test the behaviour of two physical model of diurnal warming that display contrasting systematic errors.

Multi-satellite measurements of large diurnal warming events

Diurnal warming events between 5 and 7 K, spatially coherent over large areas (∼1000 km), are observed in independent satellite measurements of ocean surface temperature. The majority of the large events occurred in the extra-tropics. Given sufficient heating (from solar radiation), the location and magnitude of these events appears to be primarily determined by large-scale wind patterns. The amplitude of the measured diurnal heating scales inversely with the spatial resolution of the different sensors used in this study. These results indicate that predictions of peak diurnal warming using wind speeds with a 25 km spatial resolution available from satellite sensors and those with 50–100 km resolution from Numerical Weather Prediction models may have underestimated warming. Thus, the use of these winds in modeling diurnal effects will be limited in accuracy by both the temporal and spatial resolution of the wind fields.

Parameterised diabatic processes in numerical simulations of an extratropical cyclone

The parameterisation of diabatic processes in numerical models is critical for the accuracy of weather forecasts and for climate projections. A novel approach to the evaluation of these processes in models is introduced in this contribution. The approach combines a suite of on-line tracer diagnostics with off-line trajectory calculations. Each tracer tracks accumulative changes in potential temperature associated with a particular parameterised diabatic process in the model. A comparison of tracers therefore allows the identification of the most active diabatic processes and their downstream impacts. The tracers are combined with trajectories computed using model-resolved winds, allowing the various diabatic contributions to be tracked back to their time and location of occurrence. We have used this approach to investigate diabatic processes within a simulated extratropical cyclone. We focus on the warm conveyor belt, in which the dominant diabatic contributions come from large-scale latent heating and parameterised convection. By contrasting two simulations, one with standard convection parameterisation settings and another with reduced parameterised convection, the effects of parameterised convection on the structure of the cyclone have been determined. Under reduced parameterised convection conditions, the large-scale latent heating is forced to release convective instability that would otherwise have been released by the convection parameterisation. Although the spatial distribution of precipitation depends on the details of the split between parameterised convection and large-scale latent heating, the total precipitation amount associated with the cyclone remains largely unchanged. For reduced parameterised convection, a more rapid and stronger latent heating episode takes place as air ascends within the warm conveyor belt.

High-resolution provenance of desert dust deposited on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus in 2009–2012 using snow pit and firn core records

The first record of dust deposition events on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow firn core is presented for the 2009–2012 period. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-greenblue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analyses of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in northeastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Although these events were less frequent than those originating in the Middle East, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centred over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or southeasterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterised dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 µm and 4.16 µm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0– 2.8 µm with an average of 2.6 µm and there was no signifi- cant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the Southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia

In late February 2010 the extraordinary windstorm Xynthia crossed over Southwestern and Central Europe and caused severe damage, affecting particularly the Spanish and French Atlantic coasts. The storm was embedded in uncommon large-scale atmospheric and boundary conditions prior to and during its development, namely enhanced sea surface temperatures (SST) within the low-level entrainment zone of air masses, an unusual southerly position of the polar jet stream, and a remarkable split jet structure in the upper troposphere. To analyse the processes that led to the rapid intensification of this exceptional storm originating close to the subtropics (30°N), the sensitivity of the cyclone intensification to latent heat release is determined using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced with ERA-Interim data. A control simulation with observed SST shows that moist and warm air masses originating from the subtropical North Atlantic were involved in the cyclogenesis process and led to the formation of a vertical tower with high values of potential vorticity (PV). Sensitivity studies with reduced SST or increased laminar boundary roughness for heat led to reduced surface latent heat fluxes. This induced both a weaker and partly retarded development of the cyclone and a weakening of the PV-tower together with reduced diabatic heating rates, particularly at lower and mid levels. We infer that diabatic processes played a crucial role during the phase of rapid deepening of Xynthia and thus to its intensity over the Southeastern North Atlantic. We suggest that windstorms like Xynthia may occur more frequently under future climate conditions due to the warming SSTs and potentially enhanced latent heat release, thus increasing the windstorm risk for Southwestern Europe.

A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the re- sponses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the uncertainties in the multimodel projections. Under the midrange representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) emission scenario, the December–February (DJF) response is characterized by a tripolar pattern over Europe, with an increase in the number of cyclones in central Europe and a decreased number in the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. The June–August (JJA) response is characterized by a reduction in the number of North Atlantic cyclones along the southern flank of the storm track. The total number of cyclones decreases in both DJF (24%) and JJA (22%). Classifying cyclones according to their intensity indicates a slight basinwide reduction in the number of cy- clones associated with strong winds, but an increase in those associated with strong precipitation. However, in DJF, a slight increase in the number and intensity of cyclones associated with strong wind speeds is found over the United Kingdom and central Europe. The results are confirmed under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, where the signals tend to be larger. The sources of uncertainty in these projections are discussed.

Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

The impact of 1973–2005 land use–land cover (LULC) changes on near-surface air temperatures during four recent summer extreme heat events (EHEs) are investigated for the arid Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the Noah Urban Canopy Model. WRF simulations were carried out for each EHE using LULC for the years 1973, 1985, 1998, and 2005. Comparison of measured near-surface air temperatures and wind speeds for 18 surface stations in the region show a good agreement between observed and simulated data for all simulation periods. The results indicate consistent significant contributions of urban development and accompanying LULC changes to extreme temperatures for the four EHEs. Simulations suggest new urban developments caused an intensification and expansion of the area experiencing extreme temperatures but mainly influenced nighttime temperatures with an increase of up to 10 K. Nighttime temperatures in the existing urban core showed changes of up to 2 K with the ongoing LULC changes. Daytime temperatures were not significantly affected where urban development replaced desert land (increase by 1 K); however, maximum temperatures increased by 2–4 K when irrigated agricultural land was converted to suburban development. According to the model simulations, urban landscaping irrigation contributed to cooling by 0.5–1 K in maximum daytime as well as minimum nighttime 2-m air temperatures in most parts of the urban region. Furthermore, urban development led to a reduction of the already relatively weak nighttime winds and therefore a reduction in advection of cooler air into the city.

An assessment of observed vertical flux divergence in long-term eddy-covariance measurements over two Midwestern forest ecosystems

Vertical divergence of CO2 fluxes is observed over two Midwestern AmeriFlux forest sites. The differences in ensemble averaged hourly CO2 fluxes measured at two heights above canopy are relatively small (0.2–0.5 μmol m−2 s−1), but they are the major contributors to differences (76–256 g C m−2 or 41.8–50.6%) in estimated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in 2001. A friction velocity criterion is used in these estimates but mean flow advection is not accounted for. This study examines the effects of coordinate rotation, averaging time period, sampling frequency and co-spectral correction on CO2 fluxes measured at a single height, and on vertical flux differences measured between two heights. Both the offset in measured vertical velocity and the downflow/upflow caused by supporting tower structures in upwind directions lead to systematic over- or under-estimates of fluxes measured at a single height. An offset of 1 cm s−1 and an upflow/downflow of 1° lead to 1% and 5.6% differences in momentum fluxes and nighttime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes, respectively, but only 0.5% and 2.8% differences in daytime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes. The sign and magnitude of both offset and upflow/downflow angle vary between sonic anemometers at two measurement heights. This introduces a systematic and large bias in vertical flux differences if these effects are not corrected in the coordinate rotation. A 1 h averaging time period is shown to be appropriate for the two sites. In the daytime, the absolute magnitudes of co-spectra decrease with height in the natural frequencies of 0.02–0.1 Hz but increase in the lower frequencies (<0.01 Hz). Thus, air motions in these two frequency ranges counteract each other in determining vertical flux differences, whose magnitude and sign vary with averaging time period. At night, co-spectral densities of CO2 are more positive at the higher levels of both sites in the frequency range of 0.03–0.4 Hz and this vertical increase is also shown at most frequencies lower than 0.03 Hz. Differences in co-spectral corrections at the two heights lead to a positive shift in vertical CO2 flux differences throughout the day at both sites. At night, the vertical CO2 flux differences between two measurement heights are 20–30% and 40–60% of co-spectral corrected CO2 fluxes measured at the lower levels of the two sites, respectively. Vertical differences of CO2 flux are relatively small in the daytime. Vertical differences in estimated mean vertical advection of CO2 between the two measurement heights generally do not improve the closure of the 1D (vertical) CO2 budget in the air layer between the two measurement heights. This may imply the significance of horizontal advection. However, a reliable assessment of mean advection contributions in annual NEE estimate at these two AmeriFlux sites is currently an unsolved problem.

The influence of Antarctica on the momentum budget of the southern extratropics

The antarctic plateau acts as a strong heat sink for the global climate, cooling the atmosphere and radiating energy to space. A cold dense atmospheric boundary layer is formed. Strong surface winds are formed as the boundary layer drains off the plateau. These drainage winds and the eddy fluxes necessary to maintain them are analysed in a general circulation model (GCM). The drainage flow is well represented in the GCM. The associated mean meridional circulation is analysed in isentropic coordinates. The momentum budget over Antarctica reveals a balance between the Eliassen-Palm flux convergence and the Coriolis torque exerted by the mean meridional mass flux. Both vertical and horizontal components of the Eliassen-Palm flux contribute, the vertical component being the greater.

Evidence from Meteosat imagery of the interaction of sting jets with the boundary layer

Meteosat infra-red imagery for the Great Storm of October 1987 is analysed to show a series of very shallow arc-shaped and smaller chevron-shaped cloud features that were associated with damaging surface winds in the dry-slot region of this extra-tropical cyclone. Hypotheses are presented that attribute these low-level cloud features to boundary-layer convergence lines ahead of wind maxima associated with the downward transport of high momentum from overrunning, so-called sting-jet, flows originating in the storm's main cloud head. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society.

High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation

The interannual variability of the stratospheric winter polar vortex is correlated with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds. This dynamical coupling between high and low latitudes, often referred to as the Holton–Tan effect, has been the subject of numerous observational and modelling studies, yet important questions regarding its mechanism remain unanswered. In particular it remains unclear which vertical levels of the QBO exert the strongest influence on the winter polar vortex, and how QBO–vortex coupling interacts with the effects of other sources of atmospheric interannual variability such as the 11-year solar cycle or the El Nino Southern Oscillation. As stratosphere-resolving general circulation models begin to resolve the QBO and represent its teleconnections with other parts of the climate system, it seems timely to summarize what is currently known about the QBO’s high-latitude influence. In this review article, we offer a synthesis of the modelling and observational analyses of QBO–vortex coupling that have appeared in the literature, and update the observational record.

A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.

The potential of 1 h refractivity changes from an operational C-band magnetron-based radar for numerical weather prediction validation and data assimilation

Refractivity changes (ΔN) derived from radar ground clutter returns serve as a proxy for near-surface humidity changes (1 N unit ≡ 1% relative humidity at 20 °C). Previous studies have indicated that better humidity observations should improve forecasts of convection initiation. A preliminary assessment of the potential of refractivity retrievals from an operational magnetron-based C-band radar is presented. The increased phase noise at shorter wavelengths, exacerbated by the unknown position of the target within the 300 m gate, make it difficult to obtain absolute refractivity values, so we consider the information in 1 h changes. These have been derived to a range of 30 km with a spatial resolution of ∼4 km; the consistency of the individual estimates (within each 4 km × 4 km area) indicates that ΔN errors are about 1 N unit, in agreement with in situ observations. Measurements from an instrumented tower on summer days show that the 1 h refractivity changes up to a height of 100 m remain well correlated with near-surface values. The analysis of refractivity as represented in the operational Met Office Unified Model at 1.5, 4 and 12 km grid lengths demonstrates that, as model resolution increases, the spatial scales of the refractivity structures improve. It is shown that the magnitude of refractivity changes is progressively underestimated at larger grid lengths during summer. However, the daily time series of 1 h refractivity changes reveal that, whereas the radar-derived values are very well correlated with the in situ observations, the high-resolution model runs have little skill in getting the right values of ΔN in the right place at the right time. This suggests that the assimilation of these radar refractivity observations could benefit forecasts of the initiation of convection.

Impact of vegetation and preferential source areas on global dust aerosol: results from a model study

[1] We present a model of the dust cycle that successfully predicts dust emissions as determined by land surface properties, monthly vegetation and snow cover, and 6-hourly surface wind speeds for the years 1982–1993. The model takes account of the role of dry lake beds as preferential source areas for dust emission. The occurrence of these preferential sources is determined by a water routing and storage model. The dust source scheme also explicitly takes into account the role of vegetation type as well as monthly vegetation cover. Dust transport is computed using assimilated winds for the years 1987–1990. Deposition of dust occurs through dry and wet deposition, where subcloud scavenging is calculated using assimilated precipitation fields. Comparison of simulated patterns of atmospheric dust loading with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer satellite absorbing aerosol index shows that the model produces realistic results from daily to interannual timescales. The magnitude of dust deposition agrees well with sediment flux data from marine sites. Emission of submicron dust from preferential source areas are required for the computation of a realistic dust optical thickness. Sensitivity studies show that Asian dust source strengths are particularly sensitive to the seasonality of vegetation cover.