Increased temperature sensitivity of net DOC production from ombrotrophic peat due to water table draw-down.

The production and release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat soils is thought to be sensitive to changes in climate, specifically changes in temperature and rainfall. However, little is known about the actual rates of net DOC production in response to temperature and water table draw-down, particularly in comparison to carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. To explore these relationships, we carried out a laboratory experiment on intact peat soil cores under controlled temperature and water table conditions to determine the impact and interaction of each of these climatic factors on net DOC production. We found a significant interaction (P < 0.001) between temperature, water table draw-down and net DOC production across the whole soil core (0 to −55 cm depth). This corresponded to an increase in the Q10 (i.e. rise in the rate of net DOC production over a 10 °C range) from 1.84 under high water tables and anaerobic conditions to 3.53 under water table draw-down and aerobic conditions between −10 and − 40 cm depth. However, increases in net DOC production were only seen after water tables recovered to the surface as secondary changes in soil water chemistry driven by sulphur redox reactions decreased DOC solubility, and therefore DOC concentrations, during periods of water table draw-down. Furthermore, net microbial consumption of DOC was also apparent at − 1 cm depth and was an additional cause of declining DOC concentrations during dry periods. Therefore, although increased temperature and decreased rainfall could have a significant effect on net DOC release from peatlands, these climatic effects could be masked by other factors controlling the biological consumption of DOC in addition to soil water chemistry and DOC solubility. These findings highlight both the sensitivity of DOC release from ombrotrophic peat to episodic changes in water table draw-down, and the need to disentangle complex and interacting controls on DOC dynamics to fully understand the impact of environmental change on this system.

Effect of changing the amount and type of fat and carbohydrate on insulin sensitivity and cardiovascular risk: the RISCK (Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings) trial

Background: Insulin sensitivity (Si) is improved by weight loss and exercise, but the effects of the replacement of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or carbohydrates of high glycemic index (HGI) or low glycemic index (LGI) are uncertain. Objective: We conducted a dietary intervention trial to study these effects in participants at risk of developing metabolic syndrome. Design: We conducted a 5-center, parallel design, randomized controlled trial [RISCK (Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings)]. The primary and secondary outcomes were changes in Si (measured by using an intravenous glucose tolerance test) and cardiovascular risk factors. Measurements were made after 4 wk of a high-SFA and HGI (HS/HGI) diet and after a 24-wk intervention with HS/HGI (reference), high-MUFA and HGI (HM/HGI), HM and LGI (HM/LGI), low-fat and HGI (LF/HGI), and LF and LGI (LF/LGI) diets. Results: We analyzed data for 548 of 720 participants who were randomly assigned to treatment. The median Si was 2.7 × 10−4 mL · μU−1 · min−1 (interquartile range: 2.0, 4.2 × 10−4 mL · μU−1 · min−1), and unadjusted mean percentage changes (95% CIs) after 24 wk treatment (P = 0.13) were as follows: for the HS/HGI group, −4% (−12.7%, 5.3%); for the HM/HGI group, 2.1% (−5.8%, 10.7%); for the HM/LGI group, −3.5% (−10.6%, 4.3%); for the LF/HGI group, −8.6% (−15.4%, −1.1%); and for the LF/LGI group, 9.9% (2.4%, 18.0%). Total cholesterol (TC), LDL cholesterol, and apolipoprotein B concentrations decreased with SFA reduction. Decreases in TC and LDL-cholesterol concentrations were greater with LGI. Fat reduction lowered HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1 and B concentrations. Conclusions: This study did not support the hypothesis that isoenergetic replacement of SFAs with MUFAs or carbohydrates has a favorable effect on Si. Lowering GI enhanced reductions in TC and LDL-cholesterol concentrations in subjects, with tentative evidence of improvements in Si in the LF-treatment group. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as ISRCTN29111298.

Rat brain serotonin neurones that express neuronal nitric oxide synthase have increased sensitivity to the substituted amphetamine serotonin toxins 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine and p-chloroamphetamine

Substituted amphetamines such as p-chloroamphetamine and the abused drug methylenedioxymethamphetamine cause selective destruction of serotonin axons in rats, by unknown mechanisms. Since some serotonin neurones also express neuronal nitric oxide synthase, which has been implicated in neurotoxicity, the present study was undertaken to determine whether nitric oxide synthase expressing serotonin neurones are selectively vulnerable to methylenedioxymethamphetamine or p-chloroamphetamine. Using double-labeling immunocytochemistry and double in situ hybridization for nitric oxide synthase and the serotonin transporter, it was confirmed that about two thirds of serotonergic cell bodies in the dorsal raphe nucleus expressed nitric oxide synthase, however few if any serotonin transporter immunoreactive axons in striatum expressed nitric oxide synthase at detectable levels. Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (30 mg/kg) or p-chloroamphetamine (2 x 10 mg/kg) was administered to Sprague-Dawley rats, and 7 days after drug administration there were modest decreases in the levels of serotonin transporter protein in frontal cortex, and striatum using Western blotting, even though axonal loss could be clearly seen by immunostaining. p-Chloroamphetamine or methylenedioxymethamphetamine administration did not alter the level of nitric oxide synthase in striatum or frontal cortex, determined by Western blotting. Analysis of serotonin neuronal cell bodies 7 days after p-chloroamphetamine treatment, revealed a net down-regulation of serotonin transporter mRNA levels, and a profound change in expression of nitric oxide synthase, with 33% of serotonin transporter mRNA positive cells containing nitric oxide synthase mRNA, compared with 65% in control animals. Altogether these results support the hypothesis that serotonin neurones which express nitric oxide synthase are most vulnerable to substituted amphetamine toxicity, supporting the concept that the selective vulnerability of serotonin neurones has a molecular basis.

Multiple-scattering in radar systems: a review

Although extensively studied within the lidar community, the multiple scattering phenomenon has always been considered a rare curiosity by radar meteorologists. Up to few years ago its appearance has only been associated with two- or three-body-scattering features (e.g. hail flares and mirror images) involving highly reflective surfaces. Recent atmospheric research aimed at better understanding of the water cycle and the role played by clouds and precipitation in affecting the Earth's climate has driven the deployment of high frequency radars in space. Examples are the TRMM 13.5 GHz, the CloudSat 94 GHz, the upcoming EarthCARE 94 GHz, and the GPM dual 13-35 GHz radars. These systems are able to detect the vertical distribution of hydrometeors and thus provide crucial feedbacks for radiation and climate studies. The shift towards higher frequencies increases the sensitivity to hydrometeors, improves the spatial resolution and reduces the size and weight of the radar systems. On the other hand, higher frequency radars are affected by stronger extinction, especially in the presence of large precipitating particles (e.g. raindrops or hail particles), which may eventually drive the signal below the minimum detection threshold. In such circumstances the interpretation of the radar equation via the single scattering approximation may be problematic. Errors will be large when the radiation emitted from the radar after interacting more than once with the medium still contributes substantially to the received power. This is the case if the transport mean-free-path becomes comparable with the instrument footprint (determined by the antenna beam-width and the platform altitude). This situation resembles to what has already been experienced in lidar observations, but with a predominance of wide- versus small-angle scattering events. At millimeter wavelengths, hydrometeors diffuse radiation rather isotropically compared to the visible or near infrared region where scattering is predominantly in the forward direction. A complete understanding of radiation transport modeling and data analysis methods under wide-angle multiple scattering conditions is mandatory for a correct interpretation of echoes observed by space-borne millimeter radars. This paper reviews the status of research in this field. Different numerical techniques currently implemented to account for higher order scattering are reviewed and their weaknesses and strengths highlighted. Examples of simulated radar backscattering profiles are provided with particular emphasis given to situations in which the multiple scattering contributions become comparable or overwhelm the single scattering signal. We show evidences of multiple scattering effects from air-borne and from CloudSat observations, i.e. unique signatures which cannot be explained by single scattering theory. Ideas how to identify and tackle the multiple scattering effects are discussed. Finally perspectives and suggestions for future work are outlined. This work represents a reference-guide for studies focused at modeling the radiation transport and at interpreting data from high frequency space-borne radar systems that probe highly opaque scattering media such as thick ice clouds or precipitating clouds.

Effect of improving representation of horizontal and vertical cloud structure on the Earth's global radiation budget. Part I: review and parametrization

A poor representation of cloud structure in a general circulation model (GCM) is widely recognised as a potential source of error in the radiation budget. Here, we develop a new way of representing both horizontal and vertical cloud structure in a radiation scheme. This combines the ‘Tripleclouds’ parametrization, which introduces inhomogeneity by using two cloudy regions in each layer as opposed to one, each with different water content values, with ‘exponential-random’ overlap, in which clouds in adjacent layers are not overlapped maximally, but according to a vertical decorrelation scale. This paper, Part I of two, aims to parametrize the two effects such that they can be used in a GCM. To achieve this, we first review a number of studies for a globally applicable value of fractional standard deviation of water content for use in Tripleclouds. We obtain a value of 0.75 ± 0.18 from a variety of different types of observations, with no apparent dependence on cloud type or gridbox size. Then, through a second short review, we create a parametrization of decorrelation scale for use in exponential-random overlap, which varies the scale linearly with latitude from 2.9 km at the Equator to 0.4 km at the poles. When applied to radar data, both components are found to have radiative impacts capable of offsetting biases caused by cloud misrepresentation. Part II of this paper implements Tripleclouds and exponential-random overlap into a radiation code and examines both their individual and combined impacts on the global radiation budget using re-analysis data.

Effect of improving representation of horizontal and vertical cloud structure on the Earth's global radiation budget. Part II: The global effects

Reliably representing both horizontal cloud inhomogeneity and vertical cloud overlap is fundamentally important for the radiation budget of a general circulation model. Here, we build on the work of Part One of this two-part paper by applying a pair of parameterisations that account for horizontal inhomogeneity and vertical overlap to global re-analysis data. These are applied both together and separately in an attempt to quantify the effects of poor representation of the two components on radiation budget. Horizontal inhomogeneity is accounted for using the “Tripleclouds” scheme, which uses two regions of cloud in each layer of a gridbox as opposed to one; vertical overlap is accounted for using “exponential-random” overlap, which aligns vertically continuous cloud according to a decorrelation height. These are applied to a sample of scenes from a year of ERA-40 data. The largest radiative effect of horizontal inhomogeneity is found to be in areas of marine stratocumulus; the effect of vertical overlap is found to be fairly uniform, but with larger individual short-wave and long-wave effects in areas of deep, tropical convection. The combined effect of the two parameterisations is found to reduce the magnitude of the net top-of-atmosphere cloud radiative forcing (CRF) by 2.25 W m−2, with shifts of up to 10 W m−2 in areas of marine stratocumulus. The effects of the uncertainty in our parameterisations on radiation budget is also investigated. It is found that the uncertainty in the impact of horizontal inhomogeneity is of order ±60%, while the uncertainty in the impact of vertical overlap is much smaller. This suggests an insensitivity of the radiation budget to the exact nature of the global decorrelation height distribution derived in Part One.

Effects of dietary fat modification on insulin sensitivity and on other risk factors of the metabolic syndrome—LIPGENE: a European randomized dietary intervention study

Background:Excessive energy intake and obesity lead to the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) may be particularly detrimental on insulin sensitivity (SI) and on other components of the MetS. Objective:This study determined the relative efficacy of reducing dietary SFA, by isoenergetic alteration of the quality and quantity of dietary fat, on risk factors associated with MetS. Design:A free-living, single-blinded dietary intervention study. Subjects and Methods:MetS subjects (n=417) from eight European countries completed the randomized dietary intervention study with four isoenergetic diets distinct in fat quantity and quality: high-SFA; high-monounsaturated fatty acids and two low-fat, high-complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diets, supplemented with long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFAs) (1.2 g per day) or placebo for 12 weeks. SI estimated from an intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) was the primary outcome measure. Lipid and inflammatory markers associated with MetS were also determined. Results:In weight-stable subjects, reducing dietary SFA intake had no effect on SI, total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, inflammation or blood pressure in the entire cohort. The LFHCC n-3 PUFA diet reduced plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) and non-esterified fatty acid concentrations (P<0.01), particularly in men. Conclusion:There was no effect of reducing SFA on SI in weight-stable obese MetS subjects. LC n-3 PUFA supplementation, in association with a low-fat diet, improved TAG-related MetS risk profiles.

Spectrally-invariant behavior of zenith radiance around cloud edges simulated by radiative transfer

In a previous paper, we discovered a surprising spectrally-invariant relationship in shortwave spectrometer observations taken by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The relationship suggests that the shortwave spectrum near cloud edges can be determined by a linear combination of zenith radiance spectra of the cloudy and clear regions. Here, using radiative transfer simulations, we study the sensitivity of this relationship to the properties of aerosols and clouds, to the underlying surface type, and to the finite field-of-view (FOV) of the spectrometer. Overall, the relationship is mostly sensitive to cloud properties and has little sensitivity to other factors. At visible wavelengths, the relationship primarily depends on cloud optical depth regardless of cloud phase function, thermodynamic phase and drop size. At water-absorbing wavelengths, the slope of the relationship depends primarily on cloud optical depth; the intercept, by contrast, depends primarily on cloud absorbing and scattering properties, suggesting a new retrieval method for cloud drop effective radius. These results suggest that the spectrally-invariant relationship can be used to infer cloud properties near cloud edges even with insufficient or no knowledge about spectral surface albedo and aerosol properties.

An assessment of aerosol‐cloud interactions in marine stratus clouds based on surface remote sensing

An assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) from ground-based remote sensing under coastal stratiform clouds is presented. The assessment utilizes a long-term, high temporal resolution data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program deployment at Pt. Reyes, California, United States, in 2005 to provide statistically robust measures of ACI and to characterize the variability of the measures based on variability in environmental conditions and observational approaches. The average ACIN (= dlnNd/dlna, the change in cloud drop number concentration with aerosol concentration) is 0.48, within a physically plausible range of 0–1.0. Values vary between 0.18 and 0.69 with dependence on (1) the assumption of constant cloud liquid water path (LWP), (2) the relative value of cloud LWP, (3) methods for retrieving Nd, (4) aerosol size distribution, (5) updraft velocity, and (6) the scale and resolution of observations. The sensitivity of the local, diurnally averaged radiative forcing to this variability in ACIN values, assuming an aerosol perturbation of 500 c-3 relative to a background concentration of 100 cm-3, ranges betwee-4 and -9 W -2. Further characterization of ACI and its variability is required to reduce uncertainties in global radiative forcing estimates.

Exposure to space radiation of high performance infrared multilayer filters and materials technology experiment

Infrared optical-multilayer filters and materials were exposed to the space environment of low Earth orbit on LDEF. This paper summarizes the effects of that environment on the physical and optical properties of the filters and materials flown.

Exchange rate pass-through to prices in macrodata: a comparative sensitivity analysis

This paper compares exchange rate pass-through to aggregate prices in the US, Germany and Japan across a number of dimensions. Building on the empirical approaches in the recent literature, our contribution is to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis of pass-through estimates. We find that the econometric method, data frequency and variable proxy employed matter for the precision of details, yet they often agree on some general trends. Thus, pass-through to import prices has declined in the 1990s relative to the 1980s, pass-through to export prices remains country-specific and pass-through to consumer prices is nowadays negligible in all three economies we considered.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Exposure to space radiation of high-performance infrared multilayer-filters and materials technology experiments

Infrared multilayer interference filters have been used extensively in satellite radiometers for about 15 years. Filters manufactured by the University of Reading have been used in Nimbus 5, 6, and 7, TIROS N, and the Pioneer Venus orbiter. The ability of the filters to withstand the space environment in these applications is critical; if degradation takes place, the effects would range from worsening of signal-to-noise performance to complete system failure. An experiment on the LDEF will enable the filters, for the first time, to be subjected to authoritative spectral measurements following space exposure to ascertain their suitability for spacecraft use and to permit an understanding of degradation mechanisms.

Sensitivity of GCM tropical middle atmosphere variability and climate to ozone and parametrized gravity wave changes

This paper describes the impact of changing the current imposed ozone climatology upon the tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in a high top climate configuration of the Met Office U.K. general circulation model. The aim is to help distinguish between QBO changes in chemistry climate models that result from temperature-ozone feedbacks and those that might be forced by differences in climatology between previously fixed and newly interactive ozone distributions. Different representations of zonal mean ozone climatology under present-day conditions are taken to represent the level of change expected between acceptable model realizations of the global ozone distribution and thus indicate whether more detailed investigation of such climatology issues might be required when assessing ozone feedbacks. Tropical stratospheric ozone concentrations are enhanced relative to the control climatology between 20–30 km, reduced from 30–40 km and enhanced above, impacting the model profile of clear-sky radiative heating, in particular warming the tropical stratosphere between 15–35 km. The outcome is consistent with a localized equilibrium response in the tropical stratosphere that generates increased upwelling between 100 and 4 hPa, sufficient to account for a 12 month increase of modeled mean QBO period. This response has implications for analysis of the tropical circulation in models with interactive ozone chemistry because it highlights the possibility that plausible changes in the ozone climatology could have a sizable impact upon the tropical upwelling and QBO period that ought to be distinguished from other dynamical responses such as ozone-temperature feedbacks.