Rational expectations? Developer behaviour and development cycles in the central London office market

Purpose – Expectations of future market conditions are acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. The purpose of this paper is to study the central London office market from 1987 to 2009 and test for evidence of rational, adaptive and naive expectations. Design/methodology/approach – Two parallel approaches are applied to test for either rational or adaptive/naive expectations: vector auto-regressive (VAR) approach with Granger causality tests and recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts. Findings – Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, the authors do not find evidence of adaptive and naïve expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags between market signal and construction starts vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developer decisions are explained, to a large extent, by contemporaneous and historic conditions in both the City and the West End, but this is more likely to stem from the lengthy design, financing and planning permission processes rather than adaptive or naive expectations. Research limitations/implications – More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of large demand shocks and/or irrational behaviour. Practical implications – Developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. Originality/value – This paper focuses the scholarly debate of real estate cycles on the role of expectations. It is also one of very few spatially disaggregate studies of the subject matter.

The distributed work of local action: interaction amongst virtually collocated research teams

Existing research on synchronous remote working in CSCW has highlighted the troubles that can arise because actions at one site are (partially) unavailable to remote colleagues. Such ‘local action’ is routinely characterised as a nuisance, a distraction, subordinate and the like. This paper explores interconnections between ‘local action’ and ‘distributed work’ in the case of a research team virtually collocated through ‘MiMeG’. MiMeG is an e-Social Science tool that facilitates ‘distributed data sessions’ in which social scientists are able to remotely collaborate on the real-time analysis of video data. The data are visible and controllable in a shared workspace and participants are additionally connected via audio conferencing. The findings reveal that whilst the (partial) unavailability of local action is at times problematic, it is also used as a resource for coordinating work. The paper considers how local action is interactionally managed in distributed data sessions and concludes by outlining implications of the analysis for the design and study of technologies to support group-to-group collaboration.

Where the interaction is: collisions of the situated and mediated in living room interactions

This article presents three ethnographic tales of interactions with living room media to help recreate the experience of significant moments in time, of affective encounters at the interface in which there is a collision or confusion of situated and virtual worlds. It draws on a year-long video ethnography of the practice and performance of everyday interactions with living room media. By studying situated activity and the lived practice of (new) media, rather than taking an exclusive focus on the virtual as a detached space, this ethnographic work demonstrates how the situated and mediated clash, or are crafted into complex emotional encounters during everyday living room life.

Anticancer activity of organotin compounds. 2. Interaction of diorganotin dihalides with nucleic acid bases and nucleosides; the synthesis of adenine, adenosine and 9-methyladenine adducts

The syntheses of the complexes formulated as SnMe2Cl2(Ad)2 (I), SnMe2Cl2(Ado)2 (II), SnMe2Cl2- (9-MeAd)2 (III) [Ad = adenine, Ado = adenosine, 9-MeAd = 9-methyladenine] as well as the more unexpected SnPhCl2(OH)(Ad)2·3H2O (IV) and SnPhCl3(Ado)2 (V) by reaction of SnMe2Cl2 or SnPh2Cl2 with the appropriate bases in methanol is described. 1H NMR studies suggest that coordination is through the N-7 position of the adenine base.

Interaction of PPARG Pro12Ala with dietary fat influences plasma lipids in subjects at cardiometabolic risk

The PPARγ2 gene SNP Pro12Ala has shown variable association with metabolic syndrome traits in healthy subjects. We investigated the effect of interaction between genotype and the ratio of polyunsaturated:saturated (P:S) fatty acid intake on plasma lipids in 367 White subjects aged 30-70 y at increased cardiometabolic risk, in the RISCK study. Interaction was determined after habitual diet at recruitment, at baseline after a 4-week high-SFA (HS) diet and after 24-week reference (HS), high-MUFA (HM) and low-fat (LF) diets. At recruitment, there were no significant associations between genotype and plasma lipids, however, P:S x genotype interaction influenced plasma total cholesterol (TC) (P=0.02), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) (P=0.002) and triglyceride (TG) (P=0.02) concentrations. At P:S ratio ≤0.33, mean TC and LDL-C concentrations in Ala12 allele carriers were significantly higher than in non-carriers (respectively P=0.003; P=0.0001). Significant trends in reduction of plasma TC (P=0.02) and TG (P=0.002) concentrations occurred with increasing P:S (respectively ≤0.33 to >0.65 and 0.34 to >0.65) in Ala12 allele carriers. There were no significant differences between carriers and non-carriers after the 4-week HS diet or 24-week interventions. Plasma TC and TG concentrations in PPARG Ala12 allele carriers decrease as P:S increases, but are not dependent on a reduction in SFA intake.

Rational intuitionism

In this paper I give a critical overview of the views of the main Rational Intuitionists from 18th to 20th century.

Beyond tokenism? Community-led planning and rational choices: findings from participants in local agenda-setting at the neighbourhood scale in England

The article confronts some key issues raised in the literature on public participation via a series of interrogatory questions drawn from rational choice theory. These are considered in relation to the design and process of public participation opportunities in planning and wider processes of local governance at the neighbourhood scale. In doing this, the article draws on recent research that has looked in some depth at a form of community-led planning (CLP) in England. The motives and expectations of participants, the abilities of participants, as well as the conditions in which participation takes place are seen as important factors. It is contended that the issues raised by rational choice theory are pertinent to emerging efforts to engage communities. As such, the article concludes that advocates of public participation or community engagement should not be afraid of responding to the challenges posed by questions of motive and reward of participants if lasting and worthwhile participation is to be established. Indeed, questions such as 'what's in it for me?' should be regarded as legitimate, necessary and indeed standard, in order to co-devise meaningful and durable participation opportunities and appropriate institutional environments. However, it is also maintained that wider considerations and capacity questions will also need to be confronted if participation is to become embedded as part of participatory neighbourhood-scale planning.

Colonization-induced host-gut microbial metabolic interaction

The gut microbiota enhances the host's metabolic capacity for processing nutrients and drugs and modulate the activities of multiple pathways in a variety of organ systems. We have probed the systemic metabolic adaptation to gut colonization for 20 days following exposure of axenic mice (n = 35) to a typical environmental microbial background using high-resolution (1)H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to analyze urine, plasma, liver, kidney, and colon (5 time points) metabolic profiles. Acquisition of the gut microbiota was associated with rapid increase in body weight (4%) over the first 5 days of colonization with parallel changes in multiple pathways in all compartments analyzed. The colonization process stimulated glycogenesis in the liver prior to triggering increases in hepatic triglyceride synthesis. These changes were associated with modifications of hepatic Cyp8b1 expression and the subsequent alteration of bile acid metabolites, including taurocholate and tauromuricholate, which are essential regulators of lipid absorption. Expression and activity of major drug-metabolizing enzymes (Cyp3a11 and Cyp2c29) were also significantly stimulated. Remarkably, statistical modeling of the interactions between hepatic metabolic profiles and microbial composition analyzed by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing revealed strong associations of the Coriobacteriaceae family with both the hepatic triglyceride, glucose, and glycogen levels and the metabolism of xenobiotics. These data demonstrate the importance of microbial activity in metabolic phenotype development, indicating that microbiota manipulation is a useful tool for beneficially modulating xenobiotic metabolism and pharmacokinetics in personalized health care. IMPORTANCE: Gut bacteria have been associated with various essential biological functions in humans such as energy harvest and regulation of blood pressure. Furthermore, gut microbial colonization occurs after birth in parallel with other critical processes such as immune and cognitive development. Thus, it is essential to understand the bidirectional interaction between the host metabolism and its symbionts. Here, we describe the first evidence of an in vivo association between a family of bacteria and hepatic lipid metabolism. These results provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that regulate host-gut microbiota interactions and are thus of wide interest to microbiological, nutrition, metabolic, systems biology, and pharmaceutical research communities. This work will also contribute to developing novel strategies in the alteration of host-gut microbiota relationships which can in turn beneficially modulate the host metabolism.