Simulating decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

Observations and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG), though observations are sparse and models disagree on the details of this variability. Therefore, it is important to understand 1) the mechanisms of simulated decadal variability, 2) which parts of simulated variability are more faithful representations of reality, and 3) the implications for climate predictions. Here, we investigate the decadal variability in the NA SPG in the state-of-the-art, high resolution (0.25◦ ocean resolution), climate model ‘HadGEM3’. We find a decadal mode with a period of 17 years that explains 30% of the annual variance in related indices. The mode arises due to the advection of heat content anomalies, and shows asymmetries in the timescale of phase reversal between positive and negative phases. A negative feedback from temperature-driven density anomalies in the Labrador Sea (LS) allows for the phase reversal. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exhibits the same periodicity, amplifies the mode. The atmosphere-ocean coupling is stronger during positive rather than negative NAO states, explaining the asymmetry. Within the NA SPG, there is potential predictability arising partly from this mode for up to 5 years. There are important similarities between observed and simulated variability, such as the apparent role for the propagation of heat content anomalies. However, observations suggest interannual LS density anomalies are salinity-driven. Salinity control of density would change the temperature feedback to the south, possibly limiting real-world predictive skill in the southern NA SPG with this model. Finally, to understand the diversity of behaviours, we analyse 42 present-generation climate models. Temperature and salinity biases are found to systematically influence the driver of density variability in the LS. Resolution is a good predictor of the biases. The dependence of variability on the background state has important implications for decadal predictions.

Essays on robust portfolio selection and pension finance

This thesis examines three different, but related problems in the broad area of portfolio management for long-term institutional investors, and focuses mainly on the case of pension funds. The first idea (Chapter 3) is the application of a novel numerical technique – robust optimization – to a real-world pension scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) for first time. The corresponding empirical results are supported by many robustness checks and several benchmarks such as the Bayes-Stein and Black-Litterman models that are also applied for first time in a pension ALM framework, the Sharpe and Tint model and the actual USS asset allocations. The second idea presented in Chapter 4 is the investigation of whether the selection of the portfolio construction strategy matters in the SRI industry, an issue of great importance for long term investors. This study applies a variety of optimal and naïve portfolio diversification techniques to the same SRI-screened universe, and gives some answers to the question of which portfolio strategies tend to create superior SRI portfolios. Finally, the third idea (Chapter 5) compares the performance of a real-world pension scheme (USS) before and after the recent major changes in the pension rules under different dynamic asset allocation strategies and the fixed-mix portfolio approach and quantifies the redistributive effects between various stakeholders. Although this study deals with a specific pension scheme, the methodology can be applied by other major pension schemes in countries such as the UK and USA that have changed their rules.

In silico identification and characterization of protein-ligand binding sites

Protein–ligand binding site prediction methods aim to predict, from amino acid sequence, protein–ligand interactions, putative ligands, and ligand binding site residues using either sequence information, structural information, or a combination of both. In silico characterization of protein–ligand interactions has become extremely important to help determine a protein’s functionality, as in vivo-based functional elucidation is unable to keep pace with the current growth of sequence databases. Additionally, in vitro biochemical functional elucidation is time-consuming, costly, and may not be feasible for large-scale analysis, such as drug discovery. Thus, in silico prediction of protein–ligand interactions must be utilized to aid in functional elucidation. Here, we briefly discuss protein function prediction, prediction of protein–ligand interactions, the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) and the Continuous Automated EvaluatiOn (CAMEO) competitions, along with their role in shaping the field. We also discuss, in detail, our cutting-edge web-server method, FunFOLD for the structurally informed prediction of protein–ligand interactions. Furthermore, we provide a step-by-step guide on using the FunFOLD web server and FunFOLD3 downloadable application, along with some real world examples, where the FunFOLD methods have been used to aid functional elucidation.

Tensor LRR and sparse coding-based subspace clustering

Subspace clustering groups a set of samples from a union of several linear subspaces into clusters, so that the samples in the same cluster are drawn from the same linear subspace. In the majority of the existing work on subspace clustering, clusters are built based on feature information, while sample correlations in their original spatial structure are simply ignored. Besides, original high-dimensional feature vector contains noisy/redundant information, and the time complexity grows exponentially with the number of dimensions. To address these issues, we propose a tensor low-rank representation (TLRR) and sparse coding-based (TLRRSC) subspace clustering method by simultaneously considering feature information and spatial structures. TLRR seeks the lowest rank representation over original spatial structures along all spatial directions. Sparse coding learns a dictionary along feature spaces, so that each sample can be represented by a few atoms of the learned dictionary. The affinity matrix used for spectral clustering is built from the joint similarities in both spatial and feature spaces. TLRRSC can well capture the global structure and inherent feature information of data, and provide a robust subspace segmentation from corrupted data. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data sets show that TLRRSC outperforms several established state-of-the-art methods.

Heterogeneous tensor decomposition for clustering via manifold optimization

Tensor clustering is an important tool that exploits intrinsically rich structures in real-world multiarray or Tensor datasets. Often in dealing with those datasets, standard practice is to use subspace clustering that is based on vectorizing multiarray data. However, vectorization of tensorial data does not exploit complete structure information. In this paper, we propose a subspace clustering algorithm without adopting any vectorization process. Our approach is based on a novel heterogeneous Tucker decomposition model taking into account cluster membership information. We propose a new clustering algorithm that alternates between different modes of the proposed heterogeneous tensor model. All but the last mode have closed-form updates. Updating the last mode reduces to optimizing over the multinomial manifold for which we investigate second order Riemannian geometry and propose a trust-region algorithm. Numerical experiments show that our proposed algorithm compete effectively with state-of-the-art clustering algorithms that are based on tensor factorization.