Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?

We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation. A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts of location shifts on forecast-error biases. Forecasting US GDP over 1-, 4- and 8-step horizons using the dataset from Stock and Watson (2009) updated to 2011:2 shows factor models are more useful for nowcasting or short-term forecasting, but their relative performance declines as the forecast horizon increases. Forecasts for GDP levels highlight the need for robust strategies, such as intercept corrections or differencing, when location shifts occur as in the recent financial crisis.

Urban retrofitting: identifying disruptive and sustaining technologies using performative and foresight techniques

Cities, which are now inhabited by a majority of the world's population, are not only an important source of global environmental and resource depletion problems, but can also act as important centres of technological innovation and social learning in the continuing quest for a low carbon future. Planning and managing large-scale transitions in cities to deal with these pressures require an understanding of urban retrofitting at city scale. In this context performative techniques (such as backcasting and roadmapping) can provide valuable tools for helping cities develop a strategic view of the future. However, it is also important to identify ‘disruptive’ and ‘sustaining’ technologies which may contribute to city-based sustainability transitions. This paper presents research findings from the EPSRC Retrofit 2050 project, and explores the relationship between technology roadmaps and transition theory literature, highlighting the research gaps at urban/city level. The paper develops a research methodology to describe the development of three guiding visions for city-regional retrofit futures, and identifies key sustaining and disruptive technologies at city scale within these visions using foresight (horizon scanning) techniques. The implications of the research for city-based transition studies and related methodologies are discussed.

The vertical structure of ocean heat transport

One of the most important contributions the ocean makes to Earth's climate is through its poleward heat transport: about 1.5 PW or more than 30% of that accomplished by the ocean-atmosphere system (Trenberth and Caron, 2001). Recently, concern has arisen over whether global warming could affect this heat transport (Watson et al., 2001), for example, reducing high latitude convection and triggering a collapse of the deep overturning circulation (Rahmstorf, 1995). While the consequences of abrupt changes in oceanic circulation should be of concern, we argue that the attention devoted to deep circulations is disproportionate to their role in heat transport. For this purpose, we introduce a heat function which identifies the contribution to the heat transport by different components of the oceanic circulation. A new view of the ocean emerges in which a shallow surface intensified circulation dominates the poleward heat transport.

Further evidence for variable synchrotron emission in XTE J1118+480 in outburst

We present simultaneous multicolor infrared and optical photometry of the black hole X-ray transient XTE J1118+480 during its short 2005 January outburst, supported by simultaneous X-ray observations. The variability is dominated by short timescales, ~10 s, although a weak superhump also appears to be present in the optical. The optical rapid variations, at least, are well correlated with those in X-rays. Infrared JHKs photometry, as in the previous outburst, exhibits especially large-amplitude variability. The spectral energy distribution (SED) of the variable infrared component can be fitted with a power law of slope α=-0.78+/-0.07, where F_ν~ν^α. There is no compelling evidence for evolution in the slope over five nights, during which time the source brightness decayed along almost the same track as seen in variations within the nights. We conclude that both short-term variability and longer timescale fading are dominated by a single component of constant spectral shape. We cannot fit the SED of the IR variability with a credible thermal component, either optically thick or thin. This IR SED is, however, approximately consistent with optically thin synchrotron emission from a jet. These observations therefore provide indirect evidence to support jet-dominated models for XTE J1118+480 and also provide a direct measurement of the slope of the optically thin emission, which is impossible, based on the average spectral energy distribution alone.

Synthesis of prebiotic galactooligosaccharides from lactose using bifidobacterial β-galactosidase (BbgIV) immobilised on DEAE-Cellulose, Q-Sepharose and amino-ethyl agarose

The bifidobacterial β-galactosidase BbgIV was immobilised on DEAE-Cellulose and Q-Sepharose via ionic binding and on amino-ethyl- and glyoxal-agarose via covalent attachment, and was then used to catalyse the synthesis of galactooligosaccharides (GOS). The immobilisation yield exceeded 90 % using ionic binding, while it was low using aminoethyl agarose (25 – 28 %) and very low using glyoxal agarose (< 3 %). This was due to the mild conditions and absence of chemical reagents in ionic binding, compared to covalent attachment. The maximum GOS yield obtained using DEAE-Cellulose and Q-Sepharose was similar to that obtained using free BbgIV (49 – 53 %), indicating the absence of diffusion limitation and mass transfer issues. For amino-ethyl agarose, however, the GOS yield obtained was lower (42 – 44 %) compared to that obtained using free BbgIV. All the supports tried significantly (P < 0.05) increased the BbgIV operational stability and the GOS synthesis productivity up to 55 °C. Besides, six successive GOS synthesis batches were performed using BbgIV immobilised on Q-Sepharose; all resulted in similar GOS yields, indicating the possibility of developing a robust synthesis process. Overall, the GOS synthesis operation performance using BbgIV was improved by immobilising the enzyme onto solid supports, in particular on Q-Sepharose

Sensitivity of direct radiative forcing by mineral dust to particle characteristics

Airborne dust affects the Earth's energy balance — an impact that is measured in terms of the implied change in net radiation (or radiative forcing, in W m-2) at the top of the atmosphere. There remains considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of direct forcing by airborne dust under current climate. Much of this uncertainty stems from simplified assumptions about mineral dust-particle size, composition and shape, which are applied in remote sensing retrievals of dust characteristics and dust-cycle models. Improved estimates of direct radiative forcing by dust will require improved characterization of the spatial variability in particle characteristics to provide reliable information dust optical properties. This includes constraints on: (1) particle-size distribution, including discrimination of particle subpopulations and quantification of the amount of dust in the sub-10 µm to <0.1 µm mass fraction; (2) particle composition, specifically the abundance of iron oxides, and whether particles consist of single or multi-mineral grains; (3) particle shape, including degree of sphericity and surface roughness, as a function of size and mineralogy; and (4) the degree to which dust particles are aggregated together. The use of techniques that measure the size, composition and shape of individual particles will provide a better basis for optical modelling.

Observing the in situ chiral modification of Ni nanoparticles using scanning transmission X-ray microspectroscopy

Enantioselective heterogeneous hydrogenation of Cdouble bond; length as m-dashO bonds is of great potential importance in the synthesis of chirally pure products for the pharmaceutical and fine chemical industries. One of the most widely studied examples of such a reaction is the hydrogenation of β-ketoesters and β-diketoesters over Ni-based catalysts in the presence of a chiral modifier. Here we use scanning transmission X-ray microscopy combined with near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM/NEXAFS) to investigate the adsorption of the chiral modifier, namely (R,R)-tartaric acid, onto individual nickel nanoparticles. The C K-edge spectra strongly suggest that tartaric acid deposited onto the nanoparticle surfaces from aqueous solutions undergoes a keto-enol tautomerisation. Furthermore, we are able to interrogate the Ni L2,3-edge resonances of individual metal nanoparticles which, combined with X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns showed them to consist of a pure nickel phase rather than the more thermodynamically stable bulk nickel oxide. Importantly, there appears to be no “particle size effect” on the adsorption mode of the tartaric acid in the particle size range ~ 90–~ 300 nm.

Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities worked together on ‘end-to-end’ uncertainty assessments of climate change and its impacts. Here, we use an experiment in peer review amongst project members to assess variation in the assessment of uncertainties between EQUIP researchers. We find overall agreement on key sources of uncertainty but a large variation in the assessment of the methods used for uncertainty assessment. Results show that communication aimed at specialists makes the methods used harder to assess. There is also evidence of individual bias, which is partially attributable to disciplinary backgrounds. However, varying views on the methods used to quantify uncertainty did not preclude consensus on the consequential results produced using those methods. Based on our analysis, we make recommendations for developing and presenting statements on climate and its impacts. These include the use of a common uncertainty reporting format in order to make assumptions clear; presentation of results in terms of processes and trade-offs rather than only numerical ranges; and reporting multiple assessments of uncertainty in order to elucidate a more complete picture of impacts and their uncertainties. This in turn implies research should be done by teams of people with a range of backgrounds and time for interaction and discussion, with fewer but more comprehensive outputs in which the range of opinions is recorded.

Exploring quercetin and luteolin derivatives as antiangiogenic agents

The formation of new blood vessels from the pre-existing vasculature (angiogenesis) is a crucial stage in cancer progression and, indeed, angiogenesis inhibitors are now used as anticancer agents, clinically. Here we have explored the potential of flavonoid derivatives as antiangiogenic agents. Specifically, we have synthesised methoxy and 4-thio derivatives of the natural flavones quercetin and luteolin, two of which (4-thio quercetin and 4-thio luteolin) had never been previously reported. Seven of these compounds showed significant (P<0.05) antiangiogenic activity in an in vitro scratch assay. Their activity ranged from an 86% inhibition of the vascular endothelium growth factor (VEGF)-stimulated migration (observed for methoxyquercetin at 10 µM and for luteolin at 1 µM) to a 36% inhibition (for thiomethoxy quercetin at 10 µM). Western blotting studies showed that most (4 out of 7) compounds inhibited phosphorylation of the VEGF receptor-2 (VEGFR2), suggesting that the antiangiogenic activity was due to an interference with the VEGF/VEGFR2 pathway. Molecular modelling studies looking at the affinity of our compounds towards VEGFR and/or VEGF confirmed this hypothesis, and indeed the compound with the highest antiangiogenic activity (methoxyquercetin) showed the highest affinity towards VEGFR and VEGF. As reports from others have suggested that structurally similar compounds can elicit biological responses via a non-specific, promiscuous membrane perturbation, potential interactions of the active compounds with a model lipid bilayer were assessed via DSC. Luteolin and its derivatives did not perturb the model membrane even at concentrations 10 times higher than the biologically active concentration and only subtle interactions were observed for quercetin and its derivatives. Finally, cytotoxicity assessment of these flavonoid derivatives against MCF-7 breast cancer cells demonstrated also a direct anticancer activity albeit at generally higher concentrations than those required for an antiangiogenic effect (10 fold higher for the methoxy analogues). Taken together these results show promise for flavonoid derivatives as antiangiogenic agents.

GRID and docking analyses reveal a molecular basis for flavonoid inhibition of src-family kinase activity

Flavonoids reduce cardiovascular disease risk through anti-inflammatory, anti-coagulant and anti-platelet actions. One key flavonoid inhibitory mechanism is blocking kinase activity that drives these processes. Flavonoids attenuate activities of kinases including phosphoinositide-3-kinase (PI3K), Fyn, Lyn, Src, Syk, PKC, PIM1/2, ERK, JNK, and PKA. X-ray crystallographic analyses of kinase-flavonoid complexes show that flavonoid ring systems and their hydroxyl substitutions are important structural features for their binding to kinases. A clearer understanding of structural interactions of flavonoids with kinases is necessary to allow construction of more potent and selective counterparts. We examined flavonoid (quercetin, apigenin and catechin) interactions with Src-family kinases (Lyn, Fyn and Hck) applying the Sybyl docking algorithm and GRID. A homology model (Lyn) was used in our analyses to demonstrate that high quality predicted kinase structures are suitable for flavonoid computational studies. Our docking results revealed potential hydrogen bond contacts between flavonoid hydroxyls and kinase catalytic site residues. Identification of plausible contacts indicated that quercetin formed the most energetically stable interactions, apigenin lacked hydroxyl groups necessary for important contacts, and the non-planar structure of catechin could not support predicted hydrogen bonding patterns. GRID analysis using a hydroxyl functional group supported docking results. Based on these findings, we predicted that quercetin would inhibit activities of Src-family kinases with greater potency than apigenin and catechin. We validated this prediction using in vitro kinase assays. We conclude that our study can be used as a basis to construct virtual flavonoid interaction libraries to guide drug discovery using these compounds as molecular templates.

Factors affecting dairy farmers' attitudes towards antimicrobial medicine usage in cattle in England and Wales

There has been growing concern about bacterial resistance to antimicrobials in the farmed livestock sector. Attention has turned to sub-optimal use of antimicrobials as a driver of resistance. Recent reviews have identified a lack of data on the pattern of antimicrobial use as an impediment to the design of measures to tackle this growing problem. This paper reports on a study that explored use of antibiotics by dairy farmers and factors influencing their decision-making around this usage. We found that respondents had either recently reduced their use of antibiotics, or planned to do so. Advice from their veterinarian was instrumental in this. Over 70% thought reducing antibiotic usage would be a good thing to do. The most influential source of information used was their own veterinarian. Some 50% were unaware of the available guidelines on use in cattle production. However, 97% thought it important to keep treatment records. The Theory of Planned Behaviour was used to identify dairy farmers’ drivers and barriers to reduce use of antibiotics. Intention to reduce usage was weakly correlated with current and past practice of antibiotic use, whilst the strongest driver was respondents’ belief that their social and advisory network would approve of them doing this. The higher the proportion of income from milk production and the greater the chance of remaining in milk production, the significantly higher the likelihood of farmers exhibiting positive intention to reduce antibiotic usage. Such farmers may be more commercially minded than others and thus more cost-conscious or, perhaps, more aware of possible future restrictions. Strong correlation was found between farmers’ perception of their social referents’ beliefs and farmers’ intent to reduce antibiotic use. Policy makers should target these social referents, especially veterinarians, with information on the benefits from, and the means to, achieving reductions in antibiotic usage. Information on sub-optimal use of antibiotics as a driver of resistance in dairy herds and in humans along with advice on best farm practice to minimise risk of disease and ensure animal welfare, complemented with data on potential cost savings from reduced antibiotic use would help improve poor practice.

Engineering a plant community to deliver multiple ecosystem services

The sustainable delivery of multiple ecosystem services requires the management of functionally diverse biological communities. In an agricultural context, an emphasis on food production has often led to a loss of biodiversity to the detriment of other ecosystem services such as the maintenance of soil health and pest regulation. In scenarios where multiple species can be grown together, it may be possible to better balance environmental and agronomic services through the targeted selection of companion species. We used the case study of legume-based cover crops to engineer a plant community that delivered the optimal balance of six ecosystem services: early productivity, regrowth following mowing, weed suppression, support of invertebrates, soil fertility building (measured as yield of following crop), and conservation of nutrients in the soil. An experimental species pool of 12 cultivated legume species was screened for a range of functional traits and ecosystem services at five sites across a geographical gradient in the United Kingdom. All possible species combinations were then analyzed, using a process-based model of plant competition, to identify the community that delivered the best balance of services at each site. In our system, low to intermediate levels of species richness (one to four species) that exploited functional contrasts in growth habit and phenology were identified as being optimal. The optimal solution was determined largely by the number of species and functional diversity represented by the starting species pool, emphasizing the importance of the initial selection of species for the screening experiments. The approach of using relationships between functional traits and ecosystem services to design multifunctional biological communities has the potential to inform the design of agricultural systems that better balance agronomic and environmental services and meet the current objective of European agricultural policy to maintain viable food production in the context of the sustainable management of natural resources.