Mutual dependency grid for stakeholder mapping: a component-based approach to supply chain participant analysis

Stakeholder analysis plays a critical role in business analysis. However, the majority of the stakeholder identification and analysis methods focus on the activities and processes and ignore the artefacts being processed by human beings. By focusing on the outputs of the organisation, an artefact-centric view helps create a network of artefacts, and a component-based structure of the organisation and its supply chain participants. Since the relationship is based on the components, i.e. after the stakeholders are identified, the interdependency between stakeholders and the focal organisation can be measured. Each stakeholder is associated with two types of dependency, namely the stakeholder’s dependency on the focal organisation and the focal organisation’s dependency on the stakeholder. We identify three factors for each type of dependency and propose the equations that calculate the dependency indexes. Once both types of the dependency indexes are calculated, each stakeholder can be placed and categorised into one of the four groups, namely critical stakeholder, mutual benefits stakeholder, replaceable stakeholder, and easy care stakeholder. The mutual dependency grid and the dependency gap analysis, which further investigates the priority of each stakeholder by calculating the weighted dependency gap between the focal organisation and the stakeholder, subsequently help the focal organisation to better understand its stakeholders and manage its stakeholder relationships.

Scheduling satellite-based SAR acquisition for sequential assimilation of water level observations into flood modelling

Satellite-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has proved useful for obtaining information on flood extent, which, when intersected with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the floodplain, provides water level observations that can be assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. With an increasing number of operational satellites with SAR capability, information on the relationship between satellite first visit and revisit times and forecast performance is required to optimise the operational scheduling of satellite imagery. By using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) and a synthetic analysis with the 2D hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP based on a real flooding case affecting an urban area (summer 2007,Tewkesbury, Southwest UK), we evaluate the sensitivity of the forecast performance to visit parameters. We emulate a generic hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling cascade by imposing a bias and spatiotemporal correlations to the inflow error ensemble into the hydrodynamic domain. First, in agreement with previous research, estimation and correction for this bias leads to a clear improvement in keeping the forecast on track. Second, imagery obtained early in the flood is shown to have a large influence on forecast statistics. Revisit interval is most influential for early observations. The results are promising for the future of remote sensing-based water level observations for real-time flood forecasting in complex scenarios.

Technical Note: The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system.

The Normal Quantile Transform (NQT) has been used in many hydrological and meteorological applications in order to make the Cumulated Distribution Function (CDF) of the observed, simulated and forecast river discharge, water level or precipitation data Gaussian. It is also the heart of the meta-Gaussian model for assessing the total predictive uncertainty of the Hydrological Uncertainty Processor (HUP) developed by Krzysztofowicz. In the field of geo-statistics this transformation is better known as the Normal-Score Transform. In this paper some possible problems caused by small sample sizes when applying the NQT in flood forecasting systems will be discussed and a novel way to solve the problem will be outlined by combining extreme value analysis and non-parametric regression methods. The method will be illustrated by examples of hydrological stream-flow forecasts.

Genome-wide association mapping to candidate polymorphism resolution in the unsequenced barley genome

Although commonplace in human disease genetics, genome-wide association (GWA) studies have only relatively recently been applied to plants. Using 32 phenotypes in the inbreeding crop barley, we report GWA mapping of 15 morphological traits across ∼500 cultivars genotyped with 1,536 SNPs. In contrast to the majority of human GWA studies, we observe high levels of linkage disequilibrium within and between chromosomes. Despite this, GWA analysis readily detected common alleles of high penetrance. To investigate the potential of combining GWA mapping with comparative analysis to resolve traits to candidate polymorphism level in unsequenced genomes, we fine-mapped a selected phenotype (anthocyanin pigmentation) within a 140-kb interval containing three genes. Of these, resequencing the putative anthocyanin pathway gene HvbHLH1 identified a deletion resulting in a premature stop codon upstream of the basic helix-loop-helix domain, which was diagnostic for lack of anthocyanin in our association and biparental mapping populations. The methodology described here is transferable to species with limited genomic resources, providing a paradigm for reducing the threshold of map-based cloning in unsequenced crops.

Association mapping of partitioning loci in barley

Background: Association mapping, initially developed in human disease genetics, is now being applied to plant species. The model species Arabidopsis provided some of the first examples of association mapping in plants, identifying previously cloned flowering time genes, despite high population sub-structure. More recently, association genetics has been applied to barley, where breeding activity has resulted in a high degree of population sub-structure. A major genotypic division within barley is that between winter- and spring-sown varieties, which differ in their requirement for vernalization to promote subsequent flowering. To date, all attempts to validate association genetics in barley by identifying major flowering time loci that control vernalization requirement (VRN-H1 and VRN-H2) have failed. Here, we validate the use of association genetics in barley by identifying VRN-H1 and VRN-H2, despite their prominent role in determining population sub-structure. Results: By taking barley as a typical inbreeding crop, and seasonal growth habit as a major partitioning phenotype, we develop an association mapping approach which successfully identifies VRN-H1 and VRN-H2, the underlying loci largely responsible for this agronomic division. We find a combination of Structured Association followed by Genomic Control to correct for population structure and inflation of the test statistic, resolved significant associations only with VRN-H1 and the VRN-H2 candidate genes, as well as two genes closely linked to VRN-H1 (HvCSFs1 and HvPHYC). Conclusion: We show that, after employing appropriate statistical methods to correct for population sub-structure, the genome-wide partitioning effect of allelic status at VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 does not result in the high levels of spurious association expected to occur in highly structured samples. Furthermore, we demonstrate that both VRN-H1 and the candidate VRN-H2 genes can be identified using association mapping. Discrimination between intragenic VRN-H1 markers was achieved, indicating that candidate causative polymorphisms may be discerned and prioritised within a larger set of positive associations. This proof of concept study demonstrates the feasibility of association mapping in barley, even within highly structured populations. A major advantage of this method is that it does not require large numbers of genome-wide markers, and is therefore suitable for fine mapping and candidate gene evaluation, especially in species for which large numbers of genetic markers are either unavailable or too costly.

Numerical conformal mapping and mesh generation for polygonal and multiply-connected regions

Details are given of a boundary-fitted mesh generation method for use in modelling free surface flow and water quality. A numerical method has been developed for generating conformal meshes for curvilinear polygonal and multiply-connected regions. The method is based on the Cauchy-Riemann conditions for the analytic function and is able to map a curvilinear polygonal region directly onto a regular polygonal region, with horizontal and vertical sides. A set of equations have been derived for determining the lengths of these sides and the least-squares method has been used in solving the equations. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the method.

Evaluation of a boundary integral representation for the conformal mapping of the unit disk onto a simply-connected domain

A representation of the conformal mapping g of the interior or exterior of the unit circle onto a simply-connected domain Ω as a boundary integral in terms ofƒ|∂Ω is obtained, whereƒ :=g -l. A product integration scheme for the approximation of the boundary integral is described and analysed. An ill-conditioning problem related to the domain geometry is discussed. Numerical examples confirm the conclusions of this discussion and support the analysis of the quadrature scheme.

The central European floods of August 2002: Part 1 - Rainfall periods and flood development

Record-breaking rainfall amounts and intensities were observed at several raingauges in central Europe during the first half of August 2002 (Fig. 1). They produced flash floods in small rivers in the Erz Mountains, the Bohemian Forest and in Lower Austria (see Fig. 2), followed by record-breaking floods of larger rivers fed from these areas. The Vltava submerged parts of the city of Prague on 13± 15 August, and subsequently the Elbe flooded parts of Dresden and further villages and towns located downstream. The gauge level of 9.40m measured at Dresden on 17 August 2002 is the highest level since 1275, exceeding the former maximum level of 8.77m recorded in 1845 (Grollmann and Simon 2002). Parts of the Danube catchment were also affected by severe flooding. There were 100 fatalities connected with the floods in central Europe, and the economic loss is estimated at 9 billion Euros for Germany (German government’s estimate), 3 billion Euros for Austria, and 2.5 billion Euros for the Czech Republic (estimates from Boyle 2002). The event thus replaced the European winter storm Lothar of December 1999 (Ulbrich et al. 2001) as the most expensive weather-related catastrophe in Europe in recent decades (see Cornford 2002). In this study, we give an overview of the exceptional rainfall experienced over wide areas on 12/13 August 2002, and the resulting floods. Further events during early August 2002, in particular the event on 6/7 August in Lower Austria, are briefly mentioned.

Mapping the platelet profile for functional genomic studies and demonstration of the effect size of the GP6 locus

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests the wide variation in platelet response within the population is genetically controlled. Unraveling the complex relationship between sequence variation and platelet phenotype requires accurate and reproducible measurement of platelet response. OBJECTIVE: To develop a methodology suitable for measuring signaling pathway-specific platelet phenotype, to use this to measure platelet response in a large cohort, and to demonstrate the effect size of sequence variation in a relevant model gene. METHODS: Three established platelet assays were evaluated: mobilization of [Ca(2+)](i), aggregometry and flow cytometry, each in response to adenosine 5'-diphosphate (ADP) or the glycoprotein (GP) VI-specific crosslinked collagen-related peptide (CRP). Flow cytometric measurement of fibrinogen binding and P-selectin expression in response to a single, intermediate dose of each agonist gave the best combination of reproducibility and inter-individual variability and was used to measure the platelet response in 506 healthy volunteers. Pathway specificity was ensured by blocking the main subsidiary signaling pathways. RESULTS: Individuals were identified who were hypo- or hyper-responders for both pathways, or who had differential responses to the two agonists, or between outcomes. 89 individuals, retested three months later using the same methodology, showed high concordance between the two visits in all four assays (r(2) = 0.872, 0.868, 0.766 and 0.549); all subjects retaining their phenotype at recall. The effect of sequence variation at the GP6 locus accounted for approximately 35% of the variation in the CRP-XL response. CONCLUSION: Genotyping-phenotype association studies in a well-characterized, large cohort provides a powerful strategy to measure the effect of sequence variation in genes regulating the platelet response.

Mapping the trickle out benefits of social and environmental enterprises: a pilot study of an East African eco business

• Objectives The objective of this paper is to propose a framework for mapping the sustainable development and poverty alleviation impacts of social and environmental enterprises in Africa. This framework is then piloted with reference to an East African Ecobusiness. • Prior Work This paper is based on data collected as part of a wider research project examining social and environmental enterprises across the 19 countries of Southern and Eastern Africa. In total, the sustainable development and poverty alleviation impacts of 20 in-depth case studies in 4 countries are being examined. • Approach Data was collected using in-depth interviews with multiple stakeholders associated with the case study business. Secondary materials were also analysed and a quantitative survey of customers undertaken. • Results In addition to their impacts on the environment, African eco businesses can also have substantial social, economic and wider poverty alleviation impacts. This paper maps the impacts of a case study East African ecobusiness, as part of developing a social and environmental enterprise impact framework for Africa and the wider developing world. In our case study, positive and negative impacts are identified, while questions are raised in relation to tradeoffs between social and environmental objectives and temporal dimensions of impact. The usefulness of existing frameworks for understanding the social, environmental and development impacts of these kinds of organisations are also considered. • Implications This paper outlines the necessity of building an African-centric impact map to capture the multi-level poverty alleviation and sustainable development impacts of social and environmental enterprise activity in developing world environments. The framework proposed also offers guidance to businesses operating in Africa about the factors that might be considered as part of their wider social and environmental responsibilities. • Value Assessing the impact of social and environmental enterprises, especially as a route to development within low income countries, is receiving increasing attention in academia and beyond. This paper presents a useful contribution to the scarce literature on social and environmental enterprises in Africa.

Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting.

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, flood forecasters are beginning to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the effort to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Drawing on interviews and other research with operational flood forecasters from across Europe, this paper highlights a number of challenges to communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts operationally. It is shown that operational flood forecasters understand the skill, operational limitations, and informational value of EPS products in a variety of different and sometimes contradictory ways. Despite the efforts of forecasting agencies to design effective ways to communicate EPS forecasts to non-experts, operational flood forecasters were often skeptical about the ability of forecast recipients to understand or use them appropriately. It is argued that better training and closer contacts between operational flood forecasters and EPS system designers can help ensure the uncertainty represented by EPS forecasts is represented in ways that are most appropriate and meaningful for their intended consumers, but some fundamental political and institutional challenges to using ensembles, such as differing attitudes to false alarms and to responsibility for management of blame in the event of poor or mistaken forecasts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden.

This paper highlights some communicative and institutional challenges to using ensemble prediction systems (EPS) in operational flood forecasting, warning, and civil protection. Focusing in particular on the Swedish experience, as part of the PREVIEW FP6 project, of applying EPS to operational flood forecasting, the paper draws on a wider set of site visits, interviews, and participant observation with flood forecasting centres and civil protection authorities (CPAs) in Sweden and 15 other European states to reflect on the comparative success of Sweden in enabling CPAs to make operational use of EPS for flood risk management. From that experience, the paper identifies four broader lessons for other countries interested in developing the operational capacity to make, communicate, and use EPS for flood forecasting and civil protection. We conclude that effective training and clear communication of EPS, while clearly necessary, are by no means sufficient to ensure effective use of EPS. Attention must also be given to overcoming the institutional obstacles to their use and to identifying operational choices for which EPS is seen to add value rather than uncertainty to operational decision making by CPAs.