Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

Adjustments in the forcing-feedback framework for understanding climate change

The traditional forcing-feedback framework has provided an indispensable basis for discussing global climate changes. However, as analysis of model behavior has become more detailed, shortcomings and ambiguities in the framework have become more evident and physical effects unaccounted for by the traditional framework have become interesting. In particular, the new concept of adjustments, which are responses to forcings that are not mediated by the global mean temperature, has emerged. This concept, related to the older ones of climate efficacy and stratospheric adjustment, is a more physical way of capturing unique responses to specific forcings. We present a pedagogical review of the adjustment concept, why it is important, and how it can be used. The concept is particularly useful for aerosols, where it helps to organize what has become a complex array of forcing mechanisms. It also helps clarify issues around cloud and hydrological response, transient vs. equilibrium climate change, and geoengineering.

Contributions of different cloud types to feedbacks and rapid adjustments in CMIP5

Using five climate model simulations of the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, the authors perform the first simultaneous model intercomparison of cloud feedbacks and rapid radiative adjustments with cloud masking effects removed, partitioned among changes in cloud types and gross cloud properties. Upon CO2 quadrupling, clouds exhibit a rapid reduction in fractional coverage, cloud-top pressure, and optical depth, with each contributing equally to a 1.1 W m−2 net cloud radiative adjustment, primarily from shortwave radiation. Rapid reductions in midlevel clouds and optically thick clouds are important in reducing planetary albedo in every model. As the planet warms, clouds become fewer, higher, and thicker, and global mean net cloud feedback is positive in all but one model and results primarily from increased trapping of longwave radiation. As was true for earlier models, high cloud changes are the largest contributor to intermodel spread in longwave and shortwave cloud feedbacks, but low cloud changes are the largest contributor to the mean and spread in net cloud feedback. The importance of the negative optical depth feedback relative to the amount feedback at high latitudes is even more marked than in earlier models. The authors show that the negative longwave cloud adjustment inferred in previous studies is primarily caused by a 1.3 W m−2 cloud masking of CO2 forcing. Properly accounting for cloud masking increases net cloud feedback by 0.3 W m−2 K−1, whereas accounting for rapid adjustments reduces by 0.14 W m−2 K−1 the ensemble mean net cloud feedback through a combination of smaller positive cloud amount and altitude feedbacks and larger negative optical depth feedbacks.

Nutrimetabonomics: nutritional applications of metabolic profiling

An individual's metabolic phenotype, and ultimately health, is significantly influenced by complex interactions between their genes and the diet. Studying these associations and their downstream biochemical consequences has proven extremely challenging using traditional hypothesis-led strategies. Metabonomics, a systems biology approach, allows the global metabolic response of biological systems to stimuli to be characterised. Through the application of this approach to nutritional-based research, nutrimetabonomics, the biochemical response to dietary inputs is being investigated at greater levels of resolution. This has allowed novel insights to be gained regarding intricate diet-gene interactions and their consequences for health and disease. In this review, we present some of the latest research exploring how nutrimetabonomics can assist in the elucidation of novel biomarkers of dietary behaviour and provide new perspectives on diet-health relationships. The use of this approach to study the metabolic interplay between the gut microbiota and the host is also explored.

Microbes central to human reproduction

As studies uncover the breadth of microbes associated with human life, opportunities will emerge to manipulate and augment their functions in ways that improve health and longevity. From involvement in the complexities of reproduction and fetal/infant development, to delaying the onset of disease, and indeed countering many maladies, microbes offer hope for human well-being. Evidence is emerging to suggest that microbes may play a beneficial role in body sites traditionally viewed as being sterile. Although further evidence is required, we propose that much of medical dogma is about to change significantly through recognition and understanding of these hitherto unrecognized microbe–host interactions. A meeting of the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics held in Aberdeen, Scotland (June 2014), presented new views and challenged established concepts on the role of microbes in reproduction and health of the mother and infant. This article summarizes some of the main aspects of these discussions.

Annotating climate data with commentary: the CHARMe project

The CHARMe project enables the annotation of climate data with key pieces of supporting information that we term “commentary”. Commentary reflects the experience that has built up in the user community, and can help new or less-expert users (such as consultants, SMEs, experts in other fields) to understand and interpret complex data. In the context of global climate services, the CHARMe system will record, retain and disseminate this commentary on climate datasets, and provide a means for feeding back this experience to the data providers. Based on novel linked data techniques and standards, the project has developed a core system, data model and suite of open-source tools to enable this information to be shared, discovered and exploited by the community.

The MELODIES project: integrating diverse data using Linked Data and cloud computing

We present an overview of the MELODIES project, which is developing new data-intensive environmental services based on data from Earth Observation satellites, government databases, national and European agencies and more. We focus here on the capabilities and benefits of the project’s “technical platform”, which applies cloud computing and Linked Data technologies to enable the development of these services, providing flexibility and scalability.

Dietary iron depletion at weaning imprints low microbiome diversity and this is not recovered with oral nano Fe(III)

Alterations in the gut microbiota have been recently linked to oral iron. We conducted two feeding studies including an initial diet-induced iron-depletion period followed by supplementation with nanoparticulate tartrate-modified ferrihydrite (Nano Fe(III): considered bioavailable to host but not bacteria) or soluble ferrous sulfate (FeSO4: considered bioavailable to both host and bacteria). We applied denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and fluorescence in situ hybridization for study-1 and 454-pyrosequencing of fecal 16S rRNA in study-2. In study-1, the within-community microbial diversity increased with FeSO4 (P = 0.0009) but not with Nano Fe(III) supplementation. This was confirmed in study-2, where we also showed that iron depletion at weaning imprinted significantly lower within- and between-community microbial diversity compared to mice weaned onto the iron-sufficient reference diet (P < 0.0001). Subsequent supplementation with FeSO4 partially restored the within-community diversity (P = 0.006 in relation to the continuously iron-depleted group) but not the between-community diversity, whereas Nano Fe(III) had no effect. We conclude that (1) dietary iron depletion at weaning imprints low diversity in the microbiota that is not, subsequently, easily recovered; (2) in the absence of gastrointestinal disease iron supplementation does not negatively impact the microbiota; and (3) Nano Fe(III) is less available to the gut microbiota.

EphB2 regulates contact-dependent and independent signalling to control platelet function

The Eph kinases, EphA4 and EphB1 and their ligand, ephrinB1 have been previously reported to be present in platelets where they contribute to thrombus stability. While thrombus formation allows for Eph-ephrin engagement and bidirectional signalling, the importance specifically of Eph kinase or ephrin signalling in regulating platelet function remained unidentified. In the present study, a genetic approach was used in mice to establish the contribution of signalling orchestrated by the cytoplasmic domain of EphB2 (a newly discovered Eph kinase in platelets) in platelet activation and thrombus formation. We conclude that EphB2 signalling is involved in the regulation of thrombus formation and clot retraction. Furthermore, the cytoplasmic tail of this Eph kinase regulates initial platelet activation in a contact-independent manner in the absence of Eph-ephrin ligation between platelets. Together these data demonstrate that EphB2 signalling not only modulates platelet function within a thrombus but is also involved in the regulation of the function of isolated platelets in a contact-independent manner.

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO₂ concentration

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. 1). There is a need to narrow uncertainty2 in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow—especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Non-replication of the association between 5HTTLPR and response to psychological therapy for child anxiety disorders

Background We previously reported an association between 5HTTLPR genotype and outcome following cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) in child anxiety (Cohort 1). Children homozygous for the low-expression short-allele showed more positive outcomes. Other similar studies have produced mixed results, with most reporting no association between genotype and CBT outcome. Aims To replicate the association between 5HTTLPR and CBT outcome in child anxiety from the Genes for Treatment study (GxT Cohort 2, n = 829). Method Logistic and linear mixed effects models were used to examine the relationship between 5HTTLPR and CBT outcomes. Mega-analyses using both cohorts were performed. Results There was no significant effect of 5HTTLPR on CBT outcomes in Cohort 2. Mega-analyses identified a significant association between 5HTTLPR and remission from all anxiety disorders at follow-up (odds ratio 0.45, P = 0.014), but not primary anxiety disorder outcomes. Conclusions The association between 5HTTLPR genotype and CBT outcome did not replicate. Short-allele homozygotes showed more positive treatment outcomes, but with small, non-significant effects. Future studies would benefit from utilising whole genome approaches and large, homogenous samples.

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make