Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results

Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project (WaterMIP), which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a consistent way. In this paper the simulation setup is described and aspects of the multi-model global terrestrial water balance are presented. All models were run at 0.5 degree spatial resolution for the global land areas for a 15-year period (1985-1999) using a newly-developed global meteorological dataset. Simulated global terrestrial evapotranspiration, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, ranges from 415 to 586 mm year-1 (60,000 to 85,000 km3 year-1) and simulated runoff ranges from 290 to 457 mm year-1 (42,000 to 66,000 km3 year-1). Both the mean and median runoff fractions for the land surface models are lower than those of the global hydrological models, although the range is wider. Significant simulation differences between land surface and global hydrological models are found to be caused by the snow scheme employed. The physically-based energy balance approach used by land surface models generally results in lower snow water equivalent values than the conceptual degree-day approach used by global hydrological models. Some differences in simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are explained by model parameterizations, although the processes included and parameterizations used are not distinct to either land surface models or global hydrological models. The results show that differences between model are major sources of uncertainty. Climate change impact studies thus need to use not only multiple climate models, but also some other measure of uncertainty, (e.g. multiple impact models).

Plant and invertebrate resources for farmland birds in pastoral landscapes

On 16 UK livestock holdings within pastoral landscapes, we investigated the provision of plant and invertebrate resources for farmland birds in spring barley and winter wheat cereal-based whole crop silages as alternatives to maize and grass silages. The benefits of low input barley systems were also investigated; barley fields were subjected to two separate herbicide sub-treatments on a split-field design (high input broad-spectrum or low input narrow spectrum herbicides). The abundance of plant resources and invertebrates was assessed for three growing seasons during summer and winter for each crop type. The study clearly demonstrated the value of spring barley for the provision of plant resources when compared to the other silage cropping systems, whilst invertebrate responses were variable. No differences in plant and invertebrate resources were found between the barley treatments. Throughout the year, forage maize afforded the lowest provision of resources for farmland birds, and because it is likely that maize will continue to be grown in pastoral areas, the value of this habitat needs to be improved if farmland birds are to benefit. To provide plant and invertebrate resources for farmland birds in pastoral landscapes we strongly advocate the growing of spring sown barley whole-crop silage followed by over-wintering stubbles. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New tools to boost butterfly habitat quality in existing grass buffer strips

There are approximately 29,000 ha of grass buffer strips in the UK under Agri-Environment Schemes; however, typically they are floristically poor and as such are of limited biodiversity value. Introducing a sown wildflower component has the potential to increase dramatically the value of these buffer strips for a suite of native species, including butterflies. This study investigates management practices aiming to promote the establishment and maintenance of wildflowers in existing buffer strips. The effectiveness of two methods used to increase the establishment of wildflowers for the benefit of native butterfly species were tested, both individually and in combination. The management practices were: (1) the application of a selective graminicide (fluazifop-P-butyl) which reduces the dominance of competitive grasses; and (2) scarification of the soil which creates germination niches for sown wildflower seeds. A wildflower seed mix consisting of nine species was sown in conjunction with the scarification treatment. Responses of wildflowers and butterflies were monitored for two years after establishment. Results indicate that the combined scarification and graminicide treatment produced the greatest cover and species richness of sown wildflowers. Butterfly abundance, species richness and diversity were positively correlated with sown wildflower species richness, with the highest values in the combined scarification and graminicide treatment. These findings have confirmed the importance of both scarification as a means of introducing wildflower seed into existing buffer strips, and subsequent management using graminicides, for the benefit of butterflies. Application of this approach could provide tools to help butterfly conservation on farmland in the future.

Investigating the phytotoxicity of the graminicide fluazifop-P-butyl against native UK wildflower species

BACKGROUND: The selective graminicide fluazifop-P-butyl is used for the control of grass weeds in dicotyledonous crops, and commonly applied in amenity areas to reduce grass productivity and promote wildflower establishment. However, evidence suggests that fluazifop-P-butylmight also have phytotoxic effects on somenon-target plants. This study investigates the effects of fluazifop-P-butyl on the emergence, phytotoxicity and above-ground biomass of nine perennial wildflower species and two grass species, following pre- and post-emergent applications at half, full and double label rates in a series of glasshouse experiments. RESULTS: While pre- and post-emergent applications of fluazifop-P-butyl caused reductions in seedling emergence and increased phytotoxicity on native wildflower and grass species, these effects were temporary for the majority of wildflower species tested, and generally only occurred at the double application rate. No differences in biomass were observed at any of the rates, suggesting good selectivity and no long-term effects of fluazifop-P-butyl application on the wildflower species from either pre-emergent or post-emergent applications. CONCLUSION: These results have direct relevance to the management of amenity areas for biodiversity, as they confirm the suitability of these wildflower species for inclusion in seed mixtures where fluazifop-P-butyl is to be applied to control grass productivity.

Improvement of 3D protein models using multiple templates guided by single-template model quality assessment

Motivation: Modelling the 3D structures of proteins can often be enhanced if more than one fold template is used during the modelling process. However, in many cases, this may also result in poorer model quality for a given target or alignment method. There is a need for modelling protocols that can both consistently and significantly improve 3D models and provide an indication of when models might not benefit from the use of multiple target-template alignments. Here, we investigate the use of both global and local model quality prediction scores produced by ModFOLDclust2, to improve the selection of target-template alignments for the construction of multiple-template models. Additionally, we evaluate clustering the resulting population of multi- and single-template models for the improvement of our IntFOLD-TS tertiary structure prediction method. Results: We find that using accurate local model quality scores to guide alignment selection is the most consistent way to significantly improve models for each of the sequence to structure alignment methods tested. In addition, using accurate global model quality for re-ranking alignments, prior to selection, further improves the majority of multi-template modelling methods tested. Furthermore, subsequent clustering of the resulting population of multiple-template models significantly improves the quality of selected models compared with the previous version of our tertiary structure prediction method, IntFOLD-TS.

Effects of seed addition on beetle assemblages during the re-creation of species-rich lowland hay meadows

Species-rich lowland hay meadows are of conservation importance for both plants and invertebrates; however, they have declined in area across Europe as a result of conversion to other land uses and management intensification. The re-creation of these grasslands on ex-arable land provides a valuable approach to increasing the extent and conservation value of this threatened habitat. Over a 3-year period a replicated block design was used to test whether introducing seeds promoted the re-creation of both plant and phytophagous beetle assemblages typical of a target hay meadow. Seeds were harvested from local hay meadows, and applied to experimental plots in the form of either green hay or brush harvesting seeds. Green hay spreading achieved the greatest success in re-creating plant and phytophagous beetle assemblages. While re-creation success increased over time for both taxa, for the phytophagous beetles the greatest increase in re-creation success relative to the establishment year also occurred where green hay was applied. We also considered the phytophagous beetles in terms of functional traits that describe host plant specificity, larval feeding location and dispersal. Phytophagous beetle functional trait composition was most similar to the target hay meadow assemblage where some form of seed addition was used, i.e. hay spreading or brush harvested seeds. This study identified the importance of introducing target plant species as a mechanism to promote the re-creation of phytophagous beetle communities. Seed addition methods (e.g. green hay spreading) are crucial to successful hay meadow re-creation.

FunFOLDQA: a quality assessment tool for protein-ligand binding site residue predictions

The estimation of prediction quality is important because without quality measures, it is difficult to determine the usefulness of a prediction. Currently, methods for ligand binding site residue predictions are assessed in the function prediction category of the biennial Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment, utilizing the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and Binding-site Distance Test (BDT) metrics. However, the assessment of ligand binding site predictions using such metrics requires the availability of solved structures with bound ligands. Thus, we have developed a ligand binding site quality assessment tool, FunFOLDQA, which utilizes protein feature analysis to predict ligand binding site quality prior to the experimental solution of the protein structures and their ligand interactions. The FunFOLDQA feature scores were combined using: simple linear combinations, multiple linear regression and a neural network. The neural network produced significantly better results for correlations to both the MCC and BDT scores, according to Kendall’s τ, Spearman’s ρ and Pearson’s r correlation coefficients, when tested on both the CASP8 and CASP9 datasets. The neural network also produced the largest Area Under the Curve score (AUC) when Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis was undertaken for the CASP8 dataset. Furthermore, the FunFOLDQA algorithm incorporating the neural network, is shown to add value to FunFOLD, when both methods are employed in combination. This results in a statistically significant improvement over all of the best server methods, the FunFOLD method (6.43%), and one of the top manual groups (FN293) tested on the CASP8 dataset. The FunFOLDQA method was also found to be competitive with the top server methods when tested on the CASP9 dataset. To the best of our knowledge, FunFOLDQA is the first attempt to develop a method that can be used to assess ligand binding site prediction quality, in the absence of experimental data.

Predicting protein structures and structural annotation of proteomes

Protein structure prediction methods aim to predict the structures of proteins from their amino acid sequences, utilizing various computational algorithms. Structural genome annotation is the process of attaching biological information to every protein encoded within a genome via the production of three-dimensional protein models.

Influence of 10 wk of soy consumption on plasma concentrations and excretion of isoflavonoids and on gut microflora metabolism in healthy adults

Although interindividual variation in isoflavone metabolism was high, intraindividual variation was low. Only concentrations of O-DMA in plasma and urine appeared to be influenced by sex. Chronic soy consumption does not appear to induce many significant changes to the gut metabolism of isoflavones other than higher beta-glucosidase activity.

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.

Reconciling biodiversity and carbon conservation

Climate change is leading to the development of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies that are likely to have substantial impacts on global biodiversity. Of these, approaches to maintain carbon within existing natural ecosystems could have particularly large benefits for biodiversity. However, the geographical distributions of terrestrial carbon stocks and biodiversity differ. Using conservation planning analyses for the New World and Britain, we conclude that a carbon-only strategy would not be effective at conserving biodiversity, as have previous studies. Nonetheless, we find that a combined carbon-biodiversity strategy could simultaneously protect 90% of carbon stocks (relative to a carbon-only conservation strategy) and > 90% of the biodiversity (relative to a biodiversity-only strategy) in both regions. This combined approach encapsulates the principle of complementarity, whereby locations that contain different sets of species are prioritised, and hence disproportionately safeguard localised species that are not protected effectively by carbon-only strategies. It is efficient because localised species are concentrated into small parts of the terrestrial land surface, whereas carbon is somewhat more evenly distributed; and carbon stocks protected in one location are equivalent to those protected elsewhere. Efficient compromises can only be achieved when biodiversity and carbon are incorporated together within a spatial planning process.

Novel management to enhance spider biodiversity in existing grass buffer strips

Grass buffer strips have been widely sown to mitigate against intensive agricultural management practices that have negatively impacted on invertebrate and plant biodiversity in arable farming systems. Typically, such strips are floristically species poor and are dominated by grasses. In the present study, we developed management practices to enhance the floristic and structural diversity of these existing strips for the benefit of spiders, a key provider of natural pest control in crops. Across three UK arable farms, we investigated the benefits of: (i) scarification to create germination niches into which wildflower seeds were sown and (ii) the effect of graminicide applications to suppress grass dominance. Spiders were sampled twice per year (July and September) during 2008 and 2009. The combination of scarification with wildflower seeds, as well as graminicide, resulted in the greatest wildflower cover and lowest grass cover, with a general trend of increased abundance of adult and juvenile spiders. The abundance of Pachygnatha degeeri, Bathyphantes gracilis and juvenile wolf spiders of the genus Pardosa was positively correlated with wildflower cover, probably reflecting increased prey availability. Sward structure was negatively correlated with Erigone atra, Oedothorax fuscus and juvenile Pardosa abundance. Management that utilizes existing commonly adopted agri-environment options, such as grass buffer strips, represents a potentially important conservation tool for increasing the quantity and quality of invertebrate habitats. This can maximize opportunities for the provision of multiple ecosystem services, including pest regulation by predators such as spiders. These management practices have the potential to be incorporated into existing U.K. and European agri-environment schemes.