Givens rotation based fast backward elimination algorithm for RBF neural network pruning

A fast backward elimination algorithm is introduced based on a QR decomposition and Givens transformations to prune radial-basis-function networks. Nodes are sequentially removed using an increment of error variance criterion. The procedure is terminated by using a prediction risk criterion so as to obtain a model structure with good generalisation properties. The algorithm can be used to postprocess radial basis centres selected using a k-means routine and, in this mode, it provides a hybrid supervised centre selection approach.

Impacts of changing air composition on severity of arable crop disease epidemics

This review assesses the impacts, both direct and indirect, of man-made changes to the composition of the air over a 200 year period on the severity of arable crop disease epidemics. The review focuses on two well-studied UK arable crops,wheat and oilseed rape, relating these examples to worldwide food security. In wheat, impacts of changes in concentrations of SO2 in air on two septoria diseases are discussed using data obtained from historical crop samples and unpublished experimental work. Changes in SO2 seem to alter septoria disease spectra both through direct effects on infection processes and through indirect effects on soil S status. Work on the oilseed rape diseases phoma stem canker and light leaf spot illustrates indirect impacts of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, mediated through climate change. It is projected that, by the 2050s, if diseases are not controlled, climate change will increase yields in Scotland but halve yields in southern England. These projections are discussed in relation to strategies for adaptation to environmental change. Since many strategies take10–15 years to implement, it is important to take appropriate decisions soon. Furthermore, it is essential to make appropriate investment in collation of long-term data, modelling and experimental work to guide such decision-making by industry and government, as a contribution to worldwide food security.

The competitive ability of pea-barley intercrops against weeds and the interactions with crop productivity and soil N availability

Grain legumes, such as peas (Pisum sativum L.), are known to be weak competitors against weeds when grown as the sole crop. In this study, the weed-suppression effect of pea–barley (Hordeum vulgare L.)intercropping compared to the respective sole crops was examined in organic field experiments across Western Europe (i.e., Denmark, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy). Spring pea (P) and barley(B) were sown either as the sole crop, at the recommended plant density (P100 and B100, respectively), or in replacement (P50B50) or additive (P100B50)intercropping designs for three seasons (2003–2005). The weed biomass was three times higher under the pea sole crops than under both the intercrops and barley sole crops at maturity. The inclusion of joint experiments in several countries and various growing conditions showed that intercrops maintain a highly asymmetric competition over weeds, regardless of the particular weed infestation (species and productivity), the crop biomass or the soil nitrogen availability. The intercropping weed suppression was highly resilient, whereas the weed suppression in pea sole crops was lower and more variable. The pea–barley intercrops exhibited high levels of weed suppression, even with a low percentage of barley in the total biomass. Despite a reduced leaf area in the case of a low soil N availability, the barley sole crops and intercrops displayed high weed suppression, probably because of their strong competitive capability to absorb soil N. Higher soil N availabilities entailed increased leaf areas and competitive ability for light, which contributed to the overall competitive ability against weeds for all of the treatments. The contribution of the weeds in the total dry matter and soil N acquisition was higher in the pea sole crop than in the other treatments, in spite of the higher leaf areas in the pea crops.

Sugars in crop plants

We review current knowledge of the most abundant sugars, sucrose, maltose, glucose and fructose, in the world's major crop plants. The sucrose-accumulating crops, sugar beet and sugar cane, are included, but the main focus of the review is potato and the major cereal crops. The production of sucrose in photosynthesis and the inter-relationships of sucrose, glucose, fructose and other metabolites in primary carbon metabolism are described, as well as the synthesis of starch, fructan and cell wall polysaccharides and the breakdown of starch to produce maltose. The importance of sugars as hormone-like signalling molecules is discussed, including the role of another sugar, trehalose, and the trehalose biosynthetic pathway. The Maillard reaction, which occurs between reducing sugars and amino acids during thermal processing, is described because of its importance for colour and flavour in cooked foods. This reaction also leads to the formation of potentially harmful compounds, such as acrylamide, and is attracting increasing attention as food producers and regulators seek to reduce the levels of acrylamide in cooked food. Genetic and environmental factors affecting sugar concentrations are described.

Simulating dynamic crop growth with an adapted land surface model – JULES-SUCROS: model development and validation

The increasing demand for ecosystem services, in conjunction with climate change, is expected to signif- icantly alter terrestrial ecosystems. In order to evaluate the sustainability of land and water resources, there is a need for a better understanding of the relationships between crop production, land surface characteristics and the energy and water cycles. These relationships are analysed using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES includes the full hydrological cycle and vegetation effects on the energy, water, and carbon fluxes. However, this model currently only simulates land surface processes in natural ecosystems. An adapted version of JULES for agricultural ecosystems, called JULES-SUCROS has therefore been developed. In addition to overall model improvements, JULES-SUCROS includes a dynamic crop growth structure that fully fits within and builds upon the biogeochemical modelling framework for natural vegetation. Specific agro-ecosystem features such as the development of yield-bearing organs and the phenological cycle from sowing till harvest have been included in the model. This paper describes the structure of JULES-SUCROS and evaluates the fluxes simulated with this model against FLUXNET measurements at 6 European sites. We show that JULES-SUCROS significantly improves the correlation between simulated and observed fluxes over cropland and captures well the spatial and temporal vari- ability of the growth conditions in Europe. Simulations with JULES-SUCROS highlight the importance of vegetation structure and phenology, and the impact they have on land–atmosphere interactions.

Asynchronous flowering and within-plant flowering diversity in wheat and the implications for crop resilience to heat

Self-pollination dominates in wheat , with a small level of out-crossing due to flowering asynchrony and male sterility. However, the timing and synchrony of male and female flowering in wheat is a crucial determinant of seed set and may be an important factor affecting gene flow and resilience to climate change. Here, a methodology is presented for assessing the timing and synchrony of flowering in wheat. From the onset of flowering until the end of anthesis, the anther and stigma activity of each floret was assessed on the first five developing ears in potted plants grown under ambient conditions and originating from cv Paragon or cvs Spark-Rialto backgrounds. At harvest maturity, seed presence, size and weight was recorded for each floret scored. The synchrony between pollen dehiscence and stigma collapse within a flower was dependent on its relative position in a spike and within a floret. Determined on the basis of synchrony within each flower, the level of pollination by pollen originating from other flowers reached approximately 30% and did not change throughout the duration of flowering. A modelling exercise parameterised by flowering observations indicated that the temporal and spatial variability of anther activity within and between spikes may influence the relative resilience of wheat to sudden, extreme climatic events which has direct relevance to predicted future climate scenarios in the UK.

Farmers' management of rice varietal diversity in the mid-hills of Nepal: implications for on-farm conservation and crop improvement

Season-long monitoring of on-farm rice (Oryza sativa, L.) plots in Nepal explored farmers' decision-making process on the deployment of varieties to agroecosystems, application of production inputs to varieties, agronomic practices and relationship between economic return and area planted per variety. Farmers deploy varieties [landraces (LRs) and modern varieties (MVs)] to agroecosystems based on their understanding of characteristics of varieties and agroecosystems, and the interaction between them. In marginal growing conditions, LRs can compete with MVs. Within an agroecosystem, economic return and area planted to varieties have positive relationship, but this is not so between agroecosystems. LRs are very diverse on agronomic and economic traits; therefore, they cannot be rejected a priori as inferior materials without proper evaluation. LRs have to be evaluated for useful traits and utilized in breeding programmes to generate farmer-preferred materials for marginal environments and for their conservation on-farm.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 changes phosphorus fractions in soils under a short rotation poplar plantation (EuroFACE)

Future high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may increase biomass production of terrestrial plants and hence plant requirements for soil mineral nutrients to sustain a greater biomass production. Phosphorus (P), an element essential for plant growth, is found in soils both in inorganic and in organic forms. In this work, three genotypes of Populus were grown under ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (FACE) for 5 years. An N fertilisation treatment was added in years 4 and 5 after planting. Using a fractionation scheme, total P was sequentially extracted using H2O, NaOH, HCl and HNO3, and P determined as both molybdate (Mo) reactive and total P. Molybdate-reactive P is defined as mainly inorganic but also some labile organic P which is determined by Vanado-molybdophosphoric acid colorimetric methods. Organic P was also measured to assess all plant available and weatherable P pools. We tested the hypotheses that higher P demand due to increased growth is met by a depletion of easily weatherable soil P pools, and that increased biomass inputs increases the amount of organic P in the soil. The concentration of organic P increased under FACE, but was associated with a decrease in total soil organic matter. The greatest increase in the soil P due to elevated CO2 was found in the HCl-extractable P fraction in the non-fertilised treatment. In the NaOH-extractable fraction the Mo-reactive P increased under FACE, but total P did not differ between ambient and FACE. The increase in both the NaOH- and HCl-extractable fractions was smaller after N addition. The results showed that elevated atmospheric CO2 has a positive effect on soil P availability rather than leading to depletion.We suggest that the increase in the NaOH- and HCl-extractable fractions is biologically driven by organic matter mineralization, weathering and mycorrhizal hyphal turnover.

Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe

Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect sibling’ framework. Crucially, this type of analysis assesses the ability of each calibration methodology to produce reliable estimates of future climate, which is not possible just using historical observations. This type of approach could be more widely adopted for assessing calibration methodologies for crop modelling. The calibration methods assessed include the commonly used ‘delta’ (change factor) and ‘nudging’ (bias correction) approaches. We focus on daily maximum temperature in summer over Europe for this idealised case study, but the methods can be generalised to other variables and other regions. The calibration methods, which are relatively easy to implement given appropriate observations, produce more robust projections of future daily maximum temperatures and heat stress than using raw model output. The choice over which calibration method to use will likely depend on the situation, but change factor approaches tend to perform best in our examples. Finally, we demonstrate that the uncertainty due to the choice of calibration methodology is a significant contributor to the total uncertainty in future climate projections for impact studies. We conclude that utilising a variety of calibration methods on output from a wide range of AOGCMs is essential to produce climate data that will ensure robust and reliable crop yield projections.

Survival analysis of cereal crop variety innovations in the UK

This paper explores the changing survival patterns of cereal crop variety innovations in the UK since the introduction of plant breeders’ rights in the mid-1960s. Using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric approaches, we examine the determinants of the survival of wheat variety innovations, focusing on the impacts of changes to Plant Variety Protection (PVP) regime over the last four decades. We find that the period since the introduction of the PVP regime has been characterised by the accelerated development of new varieties and increased private sector participation in the breeding of cereal crop varieties. However, the increased flow of varieties has been accompanied by a sharp decline in the longevity of innovations. These trends may have contributed to a reduction in the returns appropriated by plant breeders from protected variety innovations and may explain the decline of conventional plant breeding in the UK. It may also explain the persistent demand from the seed industry for stronger protection. The strengthening of the PVP regime in conformity with the UPOV Convention of 1991, the introduction of EU-wide protection through the Community Plant Variety Office and the introduction of royalties on farm-saved seed have had a positive effect on the longevity of protected variety innovations, but have not been adequate to offset the long term decline in survival durations.