Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Generation and analysis of the 2005 land cover map for Mexico using 250m MODIS data

Land cover plays a key role in global to regional monitoring and modeling because it affects and is being affected by climate change and thus became one of the essential variables for climate change studies. National and international organizations require timely and accurate land cover information for reporting and management actions. The North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) is an international cooperation of organizations and entities of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to map land cover change of North America's changing environment. This paper presents the methodology to derive the land cover map of Mexico for the year 2005 which was integrated in the NALCMS continental map. Based on a time series of 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and an extensive sample data base the complexity of the Mexican landscape required a specific approach to reflect land cover heterogeneity. To estimate the proportion of each land cover class for every pixel several decision tree classifications were combined to obtain class membership maps which were finally converted to a discrete map accompanied by a confidence estimate. The map yielded an overall accuracy of 82.5% (Kappa of 0.79) for pixels with at least 50% map confidence (71.3% of the data). An additional assessment with 780 randomly stratified samples and primary and alternative calls in the reference data to account for ambiguity indicated 83.4% overall accuracy (Kappa of 0.80). A high agreement of 83.6% for all pixels and 92.6% for pixels with a map confidence of more than 50% was found for the comparison between the land cover maps of 2005 and 2006. Further wall-to-wall comparisons to related land cover maps resulted in 56.6% agreement with the MODIS land cover product and a congruence of 49.5 with Globcover.

Computational analysis of the LRRK2 interactome

LRRK2 was identified in 2004 as the causative protein product of the Parkinson’s disease locus designated PARK8. In the decade since then, genetic studies have revealed at least 6 dominant mutations in LRRK2 linked to Parkinson’s disease, alongside one associated with cancer. It is now well established that coding changes in LRRK2 are one of the most common causes of Parkinson’s. Genome-wide association studies (GWAs) have, more recently, reported single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) around the LRRK2 locus to be associated with risk of developing sporadic Parkinson’s disease and inflammatory bowel disorder. The functional research that has followed these genetic breakthroughs has generated an extensive literature regarding LRRK2 pathophysiology; however, there is still no consensus as to the biological function of LRRK2. To provide insight into the aspects of cell biology that are consistently related to LRRK2 activity, we analysed the plethora of candidate LRRK2 interactors available through the BioGRID and IntAct data repositories. We then performed GO terms enrichment for the LRRK2 interactome. We found that, in two different enrichment portals, the LRRK2 interactome was associated with terms referring to transport, cellular organization, vesicles and the cytoskeleton. We also verified that 21 of the LRRK2 interactors are genetically linked to risk for Parkin- son’s disease or inflammatory bowel disorder. The implications of these findings are discussed, with particular regard to potential novel areas of investigation.

Analysis of the courtship behavior of the Navel Orangeworm, Amyelois transitella (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), with a commentary on methods for the analysis of sequences of behavioral transitions

The courtship behavior of the navel orangeworm, Amyelois transitella, was examined in a wind tunnel. Sixty nine courtship sequences were analyzed and successful sequences divided into two categories: rapid courtship sequences, which involved few breaks in contact, short or no periods of male/female chasing and lasted <10 s between initial contact and mating; and prolonged courtship sequences, which involved many breaks in contact, extended periods of male/female chasing and lasted >10 s. Fifty six (81%) courtships were successful (50.7% rapid courtship and 30.4% prolonged courtship); the remaining 13 (18.8%) sequences were failed courtships. Of failed courtships, 9 (13.0%) were due to males losing contact with females during courtship chases and 4 (5.8%) due to females flying away immediately after male contact. Of all courtship sequences involving a break in contact during a chase, 38.5% resulted in an unsuccessful mating attempt. These findings contrast with previous studies of the courtship behavior of the navel orangeworm, potentially indicating that the type of bioassay used to study courtship may have a large effect on the behavioral sequences displayed. We evaluate several diagnostic techniques for the analysis of sequences of behavioral transitions.

A critical account of the relationship between institutional trust, risk perception, and technology acceptance with an application to genetically modified foods

This article critically reflects on the widely held view of a causal chain with trust in public authorities impacting technology acceptance via perceived risk. It first puts forward conceptual reason against this view, as the presence of risk is a precondition for trust playing a role in decision making. Second, results from consumer surveys in Italy and Germany are presented that support the associationist model as counter hypothesis. In that view, trust and risk judgments are driven by and thus simply indicators of higher order attitudes toward a certain technology which determine acceptance instead. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial–interglacial contrast

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial–interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies – that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate – from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0–1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Seafood safety and quality: an analysis of the supply chain in the Sultanate of Oman

The globalization of trade in fish has created many challenges for the developing world specifically with regard to food safety and quality. International organisations have established a good basis for standards in international trade. Whilst these requirements are frequently embraced by the major importers (such as Japan, the EU and the USA), they often impose additional safety requirements and regularly identify batches which fail to meet their strict standards. Creating an effective national seafood control system which meets both the internal national needs as well the requirements for the export market can be challenging. Many countries adopt a dual system where seafood products for the major export markets are subject to tight control whilst the majority of the products (whether for the local market or for more regional trade) are less tightly controlled. With regional liberalization also occurring, deciding on appropriate controls is complex. In the Sultanate of Oman, fisheries production is one of the countries' chief sources of economic revenue after oil production and is a major source of the national food supply. In this paper the structure of the fish supply chain has been analysed and highlighted the different routes operating for the different markets. Although much of the fish are consumed within Oman, there is a major export trade to the local regional markets. Much smaller quantities meet the more stringent standards imposed by the major importing countries and exports to these are limited. The paper has considered the development of the Omani fish control system including the key legislative documents and the administrative structures that have been developed. Establishing modern controls which satisfy the demands of the major importers is possible but places additional costs on businesses. Enhanced controls such as HACCP and other management standards are required but can be difficult to justify when alternative markets do not specify these. These enhanced controls do however provide additional consumer protection and can bring benefits to local consumers. The Omani government is attempting to upgrade the system of controls and has made tremendous progress toward the implementation of HACCP and introducing enhanced management systems into its industrial sector. The existence of strengthened legislative and government support, including subsidies, has encouraged some businesses to implement HACCP. The current control systems have been reviewed and a SWOT analysis approach used to identify key factors for their future development. The study shows that seafood products in the supply chain are often exposed to lengthy handling and distribution process before reaching the consumers, a typical issue faced by many developing countries. As seafood products are often perishable, they safety is compromised if not adequately controlled. The enforcement of current food safety laws in the Sultanate of Oman is shared across various government agencies. Consequently, there is a need to harmonize all regulatory requirements, enhancing the domestic food protection and to continue to work towards a fully risk-based approach in order to compete successfully in the global market.

Investigation of high-efficiency Wireless Power Transfer criteria of resonantly-coupled loops and dipoles through analysis of the figure of merit

The efficiency of a Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) system is greatly dependent on both the geometry and operating frequency of the transmitting and receiving structures. By using Coupled Mode Theory (CMT), the figure of merit is calculated for resonantly-coupled loop and dipole systems. An in-depth analysis of the figure of merit is performed with respect to the key geometric parameters of the loops and dipoles, along with the resonant frequency, in order to identify the key relationships leading to high-efficiency WPT. For systems consisting of two identical single-turn loops, it is shown that the choice of both the loop radius and resonant frequency are essential in achieving high-efficiency WPT. For the dipole geometries studied, it is shown that the choice of length is largely irrelevant and that as a result of their capacitive nature, low-MHz frequency dipoles are able to produce significantly higher figures of merit than those of the loops considered. The results of the figure of merit analysis are used to propose and subsequently compare two mid-range loop and dipole WPT systems of equal size and operating frequency, where it is shown that the dipole system is able to achieve higher efficiencies than the loop system of the distance range examined.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark-up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent 30 years, little progress has been made, due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. The debate is resumed by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to ensure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of 12 construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

Modelling spectral reflectance of open cork oak woodland: a simulation analysis of the effects of vegetation structure and background

This study analyses the influence of vegetation structure (i.e. leaf area index and canopy cover) and seasonal background changes on moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS)-simulated reflectance data in open woodland. Approximately monthly spectral reflectance and transmittance field measurements (May 2011 to October 2013) of cork oak tree leaves (Quercus suber) and of the herbaceous understorey were recorded in the region of Ribatejo, Portugal. The geometric-optical and radiative transfer (GORT) model was used to simulate MODIS response (red, near-infrared) and to calculate vegetation indices, investigating their response to changes in the structure of the overstorey vegetation and to seasonal changes in the understorey using scenarios corresponding to contrasting phenological status (dry season vs. wet season). The performance of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) is discussed. Results showed that SAVI and EVI were very sensitive to the emergence of background vegetation in the wet season compared to NDVI and that shading effects lead to an opposing trend in the vegetation indices. The information provided by this research can be useful to improve our understanding of the temporal dynamic of vegetation, monitored by vegetation indices.

Environmental and ecological economics in the 21st century: an age adjusted citation analysis of the most influential articles, journals, authors and institutions

We investigate the influence of articles, authors, journals and institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics. We depart from studies that investigated the literature until 2001 and include a time period that has witnessed an enormous increase of importance in the field. We adjust for the age effect given the huge impact of the year of an article's publication on its influence and we show that this adjustment does make a substantial difference — especially for disaggregated units of analysis with diverse age characteristics such as articles or authors. We analyse 6597 studies on environmental and ecological economics published between 2000 and 2009. We provide rankings of the influential articles, authors, journals and institutions and find that Ecological Economics, Energy Economics and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management have the most influential articles, they publish very influential authors and their articles are cited most. The University of Maryland, Resources for the Future, the University of East Anglia and the World Bank appear to be the most influential institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics.

Distribution analysis of the putative cancer marker S100A4 across invasive squamous cell carcinoma penile tissue

MS-based proteomic methods were utilised for the first time in the discovery of novel penile cancer biomarkers. MALDI MS imaging was used to obtain the in situ biomolecular MS profile of squamous cell carcinoma of the penis which was then compared to benign epithelial MS profiles. Spectra from cancerous and benign tissue areas were examined to identify MS peaks that best distinguished normal epithelial cells from invasive squamous epithelial cells, providing crucial evidence to suggest S100A4 to be differentially expressed. Verification by immunohistochemistry resulted in positive staining for S100A4 in a sub-population of invasive but not benign epithelial cells.

Proteomic analysis of the medicinal plant Artemisia annua: data from leaf and trichome extracts

This article contains raw and processed data related to research published by Bryant et al. [1]. Data was obtained by MS-based proteomics, analysing trichome-enriched, trichome-depleted and whole leaf samples taken from the medicinal plant Artemisia annua and searching the acquired MS/MS data against a recently published contig database [2] and other genomic and proteomic sequence databases for comparison. The processed data shows that an order-of-magnitude more proteins have been identified from trichome-enriched Artemisia annua samples in comparison to previously published data. Proteins known to have a role in the biosynthesis of artemisinin and other highly abundant proteins were found which imply additional enzymatically driven processes occurring within the trichomes that are significant for the biosynthesis of artemisinin.