119 resultados para C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications


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The Chiltern commons are typical of those in the south east of England: small and numerous, but with the potential to provide important natural green space whilst contributing to environmental sustainability. In order to keep commons in good heart, they need to be managed. However, as activities such as grazing and coppicing become unviable on the commons, owners need to find sustainable roles beyond traditional agricultural and silvicultural practices. This paper examines ways of making management pay. It begins by exploring the economic, social and environmental challenges of sustainable management within the context of contemporary life. Section 2 identifies the different ways in which revenue contributions might be made towards the management of commons. Section 3 examines the relevant legal and other restrictions and Section 4 offers insights into where management proposals might offer multiple positive benefits, but also where there is the potential to cause conflict with environmental and social interests. Section 5 explores alternative funding streams for commons. Finally, Section 6 concludes with practical tips for the owners and managers of commons in the Chilterns and identifies areas for further research. Full references, links and resources are provided in the footnotes and appendix.

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Platelets are activated by a range of stimuli that share little or no resemblance in structure to each other or to recognized ligands, including diesel exhaust particles (DEP), small peptides [4N1-1, Champs (computed helical anti-membrane proteins), LSARLAF (Leu-Ser-Ala-Arg-Leu-Ala-Phe)], proteins (histones) and large polysaccharides (fucoidan, dextran sulfate). This miscellaneous group stimulate aggregation of human and mouse platelets through the glycoprotein VI (GPVI)-FcR γ-chain complex and/or C-type lectin-like receptor-2 (CLEC-2) as shown using platelets from mice deficient in either or both of these receptors. In addition, all of these ligands stimulate tyrosine phosphorylation in GPVI/CLEC-2-double-deficient platelets, indicating that they bind to additional surface receptors, although only in the case of dextran sulfate does this lead to activation. DEP, fucoidan and dextran sulfate, but not the other agonists, activate GPVI and CLEC-2 in transfected cell lines as shown using a sensitive reporter assay confirming a direct interaction with the two receptors. We conclude that this miscellaneous group of ligands bind to multiple proteins on the cell surface including GPVI and/or CLEC-2, inducing activation. These results have pathophysiological significance in a variety of conditions that involve exposure to activating charged/hydrophobic agents.

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There are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors are often the result of a number of interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained the ability to run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough to switch the convective parameterization off, which permits the convection to develop explicitly. There are clear improvements to the initiation of convective storms and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the convection-permitting simulations, which enables a new process-study approach to model bias identification. In this study, multiyear global atmosphere-only climate simulations with and without convective parameterization are undertaken with the Met Office Unified Model and are analyzed over the Maritime Continent region, where convergence from sea-breeze circulations is key for convection initiation. The analysis shows that, although the simulation with parameterized convection is able to reproduce the key rain-forming sea-breeze circulation, the parameterization is not able to respond realistically to the circulation. A feedback of errors also occurs: the convective parameterization causes rain to fall in the early morning, which cools and wets the boundary layer, reducing the land–sea temperature contrast and weakening the sea breeze. This is, however, an effect of the convective bias, rather than a cause of it. Improvements to how and when convection schemes trigger convection will improve both the timing and location of tropical rainfall and representation of sea-breeze circulations.

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Separating edaphic impacts on tree distributions from those of climate and geography is notoriously difficult. Aboveground and belowground factors play important roles, and determining their relative contribution to tree success will greatly assist in refining predictive models and forestry strategies in a changing climate. In a common glasshouse, seedlings of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) from multiple populations were grown in multiple forest soils. Fungicide was applied to half of the seedlings to separate soil fungal and nonfungal impacts on seedling performance. Soils of varying geographic and climatic distance from seed origin were compared, using a transfer function approach. Seedling height and biomass were optimized following seed transfer into drier soils, whereas survival was optimized when elevation transfer was minimised. Fungicide application reduced ectomycorrhizal root colonization by c. 50%, with treated seedlings exhibiting greater survival but reduced biomass. Local adaptation of Douglas-fir populations to soils was mediated by soil fungi to some extent in 56% of soil origin by response variable combinations. Mediation by edaphic factors in general occurred in 81% of combinations. Soil biota, hitherto unaccounted for in climate models, interacts with biogeography to influence plant ranges in a changing climate.

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"Stress-regulated" mitogen-activated protein kinases (SR-MAPKs) comprise the stress-activated protein kinases (SAPKs)/c-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNKs) and the p38-MAPKs. In the perfused heart, ischemia/reperfusion activates SR-MAPKs. Although the agent(s) directly responsible is unclear, reactive oxygen species are generated during ischemia/reperfusion. We have assessed the ability of oxidative stress (as exemplified by H2O2) to activate SR-MAPKs in the perfused heart and compared it with the effect of ischemia/reperfusion. H2O2 activated both SAPKs/JNKs and p38-MAPK. Maximal activation by H2O2 in both cases was observed at 0.5 mM. Whereas activation of p38-MAPK by H2O2 was comparable to that of ischemia and ischemia/reperfusion, activation of the SAPKs/JNKs was less than that of ischemia/reperfusion. As with ischemia/reperfusion, there was minimal activation of the ERK MAPK subfamily by H2O2. MAPK-activated protein kinase 2 (MAPKAPK2), a downstream substrate of p38-MAPKs, was activated by H2O2 to a similar extent as with ischemia or ischemia/reperfusion. In all instances, activation of MAPKAPK2 in perfused hearts was inhibited by SB203580, an inhibitor of p38-MAPKs. Perfusion of hearts at high aortic pressure (20 kilopascals) also activated the SR-MAPKs and MAPKAPK2. Free radical trapping agents (dimethyl sulfoxide and N-t-butyl-alpha-phenyl nitrone) inhibited the activation of SR-MAPKs and MAPKAPK2 by ischemia/reperfusion. These data are consistent with a role for reactive oxygen species in the activation of SR-MAPKs during ischemia/reperfusion.

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Datasets containing information to locate and identify water bodies have been generated from data locating static-water-bodies with resolution of about 300 m (1/360 deg) recently released by the Land Cover Climate Change Initiative (LC CCI) of the European Space Agency. The LC CCI water-bodies dataset has been obtained from multi-temporal metrics based on time series of the backscattered intensity recorded by ASAR on Envisat between 2005 and 2010. The new derived datasets provide coherently: distance to land, distance to water, water-body identifiers and lake-centre locations. The water-body identifier dataset locates the water bodies assigning the identifiers of the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD), and lake centres are defined for in-land waters for which GLWD IDs were determined. The new datasets therefore link recent lake/reservoir/wetlands extent to the GLWD, together with a set of coordinates which locates unambiguously the water bodies in the database. Information on distance-to-land for each water cell and the distance-to-water for each land cell has many potential applications in remote sensing, where the applicability of geophysical retrieval algorithms may be affected by the presence of water or land within a satellite field of view (image pixel). During the generation and validation of the datasets some limitations of the GLWD database and of the LC CCI water-bodies mask have been found. Some examples of the inaccuracies/limitations are presented and discussed. Temporal change in water-body extent is common. Future versions of the LC CCI dataset are planned to represent temporal variation, and this will permit these derived datasets to be updated.

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Although liquid matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) has been used in mass spectrometry (MS) since the early introduction of MALDI, its substantial lack of sensitivity compared to solid (crystalline) MALDI was for a long time a major hurdle to its analytical competitiveness. In the last decade, this situation has changed with the development of new sensitive liquid matrices, which are often based on a binary matrix acid/base system. Some of these matrices were inspired by the recent progress in ionic liquid research, while others were developed from revisiting previous liquid MALDI work as well as from a combination of these two approaches. As a result, two high-performing liquid matrix classes have been developed, the ionic liquid matrices (ILMs) and the liquid support matrices (LSMs), now allowing MS measurements at a sensitivity level that is very close to the level of solid MALDI and in some cases even surpasses it. This chapter provides some basic information on a selection of highly successful representatives of these new liquid matrices and describes in detail how they are made and applied in MALDI MS analysis.

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The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

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Humans’ unique cognitive abilities are usually attributed to a greatly expanded neocortex, which has been described as “the crowning achievement of evolution and the biological substrate of human mental prowess” [1]. The human cerebellum, however, contains four times more neurons than the neocortex [2] and is attracting increasing attention for its wide range of cognitive functions. Using a method for detecting evolutionary rate changes along the branches of phylogenetic trees, we show that the cerebellum underwent rapid size increase throughout the evolution of apes, including humans, expanding significantly faster than predicted by the change in neocortex size. As a result, humans and other apes deviated significantly from the general evolutionary trend for neocortex and cerebellum to change in tandem, having significantly larger cerebella relative to neocortex size than other anthropoid primates. These results suggest that cerebellar specialization was a far more important component of human brain evolution than hitherto recognized and that technical intelligence was likely to have been at least as important as social intelligence in human cognitive evolution. Given the role of the cerebellum in sensory-motor control and in learning complex action sequences, cerebellar specialization is likely to have underpinned the evolution of humans’ advanced technological capacities, which in turn may have been a preadaptation for language.

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The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3–UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3–UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN  >  3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN  >  100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. We also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

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The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is evaluated at two locations in the UK: a dense urban site in the centre of London and a residential suburban site in Swindon. Eddy covariance observations of the turbulent fluxes are used to assess model performance over a twoyear period (2011-2013). The distinct characteristics of the sites mean their surface energy exchanges differ considerably. The model suggests the largest differences can be attributed to surface cover (notably the proportion of vegetated versus impervious area) and the additional energy supplied by human activities. SUEWS performs better in summer than winter, and better at the suburban site than the dense urban site. One reason for this is the bias towards suburban summer field campaigns in observational data used to parameterise this (and other) model(s). The suitability of model parameters (such as albedo, energy use and water use) for the UK sites is considered and, where appropriate, alternative values are suggested. An alternative parameterisation for the surface conductance is implemented, which permits greater soil moisture deficits before evaporation is restricted at non-irrigated sites. Accounting for seasonal variation in the estimation of storage heat flux is necessary to obtain realistic wintertime fluxes.