What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

Can profitable trading strategies be derived from investment best-sellers?

A glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to ‘make a million’ or ‘beat the market’ with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. This paper investigates whether useful trading strategies can be derived from popular books of investment strategy, with What Works on Wall Street by James P. O'Shaughnessy used as an example. Specifically, we test whether this strategy would have produced a similarly spectacular performance in the UK context as was demonstrated by the author for the US market. As part of our investigation, we highlight a general methodology for determining whether the observed superior performance of a trading rule could be attributed in part or in entirety to data mining. Overall, we find that the O'Shaughnessy rule performs reasonably well in the UK equity market, yielding higher returns than the FTSE All-Share Index, but lower returns than an equally weighted benchmark

Can polar lows be objectively identified and tracked in the ECMWF operational analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis?

Polar lows are maritime meso-cyclones associated with intense surface wind speeds and oceanic heat fluxes at high latitudes. The ability of the ERA-Interim (ERAI) reanalysis to represent polar lows in the North Atlantic is assessed by comparing ERAI and the ECMWF operational analysis for the period 2008-2011. First, the representation of a set of satellite observed polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Seas in the operational analysis and ERAI is analysed. Then, the possibility of directly identifying and tracking the polar lows in the operational analysis and ERAI is explored using a tracking algorithm based on 850 hPa vorticity with objective identification criteria on cyclone dynamical intensity and atmospheric static stability. All but one of the satellite observed polar lows with a lifetime of at least 6 hours have an 850 hPa vorticity signature of a co-located mesocyclone in both the operational analysis and ERAI for most of their life cycles. However, the operational analysis has vorticity structures that better resemble the observed cloud patterns and stronger surface wind speed intensities compared to those in ERAI. By applying the objective identification criteria, about 55% of the satellite observed polar lows are identified and tracked in ERAI, while this fraction increases to about 70% in the operational analysis. Particularly in ERAI, the remaining observed polar lows are mainly not identified because they have too weak wind speed and vorticity intensity compared to the tested criteria. The implications of the tendency of ERAI to underestimate the polar low dynamical intensity for future studies of polar lows is discussed.

Auditory distraction in memory tasks: Can it be controlled?

Irrelevant sound accompanying the processes of encoding and retrieval of verbal events impairs memory performance. However, the degree of impairment is highly dependent on a range of factors. Some of them lie outside rememberers’ control, like the semantic content of distracting sound or the nature of a test used to assess memory. Others, like a strategy used to encode memoranda, rest under control of the rememberer. In this paper the factors that modulate memory impairment are outlined and discussed in terms of multiple mechanisms contributing to memory impairment under auditory distraction. The mechanisms of a capture of attention by distraction, interference of automatic seriation of distraction and voluntary seriation of memoranda, semantic inhibition of distraction, and blocking of memoranda by semantically related distracters are described. Results that demonstrate how these mechanisms determine memory impairment under auditory distraction are also discussed. Particular attention is devoted to the possibility of voluntary control over the workings of these mechanisms and the conditions under which the negative impact of auditory distraction upon memory performance could be minimised.

Can we predict when “dying” will be difficult?: Progressive achievements in L2 English

A large body of research has focused on the observation that second language (L2) learners are limited in their production of temporal and aspectual forms. For example, in L2 English, it has been shown learners use progressive marking with activity verbs and only rarely extend the form to telic verb phrases such as accomplishments or achievements (Bardovi-Harlig and Reynolds, 1995; Bardovi-Harlig, 2000; Robison, 1995). Shirai and Andersen (1995) proposed that activities represent the prototype for the category of progressive aspect and learners generally acquire the prototype first. However, very little research has focused explicitly on advanced learners to see if they eventually extend beyond the prototype. In addition, properties of the native language have not systematically been taken into account. Achievements such as "die" are especially interesting in that they interact differently with markers of progressive aspect across languages. The present study investigated the acquisition of progressive achievements in English by native speakers of Chinese and Korean in order to examine whether there is evidence of universal difficulty, as would be predicted by the prototype account, or whether similarity between the L1 and L2 (as in the case of English and Korean) can facilitate acquisition, as would be predicted by transfer. Our results suggest that the properties of the native language play an important role, supporting the transfer account. However, neither L1 group performs at the level of native speakers. We argue that the acquisition of aspect is influenced by both the properties of the native language and the semantic and pragmatic complexity of the target computation.

Any response? How demand response could be enhanced based on early UK experience

Policy makers are in broad agreement that demand response should play a major role in EU electricity systems and provide much needed future system flexibility. Yet, little demand response has been forthcoming in member states to date. This paper identifies some of the technical potential for demand response, based on empirical data from one UK demand aggregator. Half-hourly electricity readings of demand during normal operation and during response events have been analysed for different industry and service sectors. We review these findings in the context of ongoing EU policy developments with particular focus on the role appropriate arrangements to enhance the available resource. We conclude that in some sectors appropriate policy and regulation could triple the available response capacity and thereby lead to stronger commercial uptake of demand response.

Independence referendums: who should vote and who should be offered citizenship?

In this EUDO CITIZENSHIP Forum Debate, several authors consider the interrelations between eligibility criteria for participation in independence referendum (that may result in the creation of a new independent state) and the determination of putative citizenship ab initio (on day one) of such a state. The kick-off contribution argues for resemblance of an independence referendum franchise and of the initial determination of the citizenry, critically appraising the incongruence between the franchise for the 18 September 2014 Scottish independence referendum, and the blueprint for Scottish citizenship ab initio put forward by the Scottish Government in its 'Scotland's Future' White Paper. Contributors to this debate come from divergent disciplines (law, political science, sociology, philosophy). They reflect on and contest the above claims, both generally and in relation to regional settings including (in addition to Scotland) Catalonia/Spain, Flanders/Belgium, Quebec/Canada, Post-Yugoslavia and Puerto-Rico/USA.

Can dynamically downscaled windstorm footprints be improved by observations through a probabilistic approach?

Windstorms are a main feature of the European climate and exert strong socioeconomic impacts. Large effort has been made in developing and enhancing models to simulate the intensification of windstorms, resulting footprints, and associated impacts. Simulated wind or gust speeds usually differ from observations, as regional climate models have biases and cannot capture all local effects. An approach to adjust regional climate model (RCM) simulations of wind and wind gust toward observations is introduced. For this purpose, 100 windstorms are selected and observations of 173 (111) test sites of the German Weather Service are considered for wind (gust) speed. Theoretical Weibull distributions are fitted to observed and simulated wind and gust speeds, and the distribution parameters of the observations are interpolated onto the RCM computational grid. A probability mapping approach is applied to relate the distributions and to correct the modeled footprints. The results are not only achieved for single test sites but for an area-wide regular grid. The approach is validated using root-mean-square errors on event and site basis, documenting that the method is generally able to adjust the RCM output toward observations. For gust speeds, an improvement on 88 of 100 events and at about 64% of the test sites is reached. For wind, 99 of 100 improved events and ~84% improved sites can be obtained. This gives confidence on the potential of the introduced approach for many applications, in particular those considering wind data.

Should system dynamics be described as a 'hard' or 'deterministic' systems approach?

This paper explores the criticism that system dynamics is a ‘hard’ or ‘deterministic’ systems approach. This criticism is seen to have four interpretations and each is addressed from the perspectives of social theory and systems science. Firstly, system dynamics is shown to offer not prophecies but Popperian predictions. Secondly, it is shown to involve the view that system structure only partially, not fully, determines human behaviour. Thirdly, the field's assumptions are shown not to constitute a grand content theory—though its structural theory and its attachment to the notion of causality in social systems are acknowledged. Finally, system dynamics is shown to be significantly different from systems engineering. The paper concludes that such confusions have arisen partially because of limited communication at the theoretical level from within the system dynamics community but also because of imperfect command of the available literature on the part of external commentators. Improved communication on theoretical issues is encouraged, though it is observed that system dynamics will continue to justify its assumptions primarily from the point of view of practical problem solving. The answer to the question in the paper's title is therefore: on balance, no.

Diallyl disulfide-induced apoptosis in a breast-cancer cell line (MCF-7) may be caused by inhibition of histone de-acetylation

The health benefits of garlic have been proven by epidemiological and experimental studies. Diallyl disulphide (DADS), the major organosulfur compound found in garlic oil, is known to lower the incidence of breast cancer both in vitro and in vivo. The studies reported here demonstrate that DADS induces apoptosis in the MCF-7 breast-cancer cell line through interfering with cell-cycle growth phases in a way that increases the sub-G0 population and substantially halts DNA synthesis. DADS also induces phosphatidylserine (PS) translocation from the inner to the outer leaflet of the plasma membrane and activates caspase-3. Further studies revealed that DADS modulates the cellular levels of Bax, Bcl-2, Bcl-xL and Bcl-w in a dose-dependent manner, suggesting the involvement of Bcl-2 family proteins in DADS induced apoptosis. Histone deacetylation inhibitors (HDACi) are known to suppress cancer growth and induce apoptosis in cancer cells. Here it is shown that DADS has HDACi properties in MCF-7 cells as it lowers the removal of an acetyl group from an acetylated substrate and induces histone-4 (H4) hyper-acetylation. The data thus indicate that the HDACi properties of DADS may be responsible for the induction of apoptosis in breast cancer cells.

Schwann cells can be reprogrammed to multipotency by culture

Adult neural crest related-stem cells persist in adulthood, making them an ideal and easily accessible source of multipotent cells for potential clinical use. Recently, we reported the presence of neural crest-related stem cells within adult palatal ridges, thus raising the question of their localization in their endogenous niche. Using immunocytochemistry, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, and correlative fluorescence and transmission electron microscopy, we identified myelinating Schwann cells within palatal ridges as a putative neural crest stem cell source. Palatal Schwann cells expressed nestin, p75(NTR), and S100. Correlative fluorescence and transmission electron microscopy revealed the exclusive nestin expression within myelinating Schwann cells. Palatal neural crest stem cells and nestin-positive Schwann cells isolated from adult sciatic nerves were able to grow under serum-free conditions as neurospheres in presence of FGF-2 and EGF. Spheres of palatal and sciatic origin showed overlapping expression pattern of neural crest stem cell and Schwann cell markers. Expression of the pluripotency factors Sox2, Klf4, c-Myc, Oct4, the NF-κB subunits p65, p50, and the NF-κB-inhibitor IκB-β were up-regulated in conventionally cultivated sciatic nerve Schwann cells and in neurosphere cultures. Finally, neurospheres of palatal and sciatic origin were able to differentiate into ectodermal, mesodermal, and endodermal cell types emphasizing their multipotency. Taken together, we show that nestin-positive myelinating Schwann cells can be reprogrammed into multipotent adult neural crest stem cells under appropriate culture conditions.

Could there be a superhuman species?

Transhumanism is the school of thought that advocates the use of technology to enhance the human species, to the point where some supporters consider that a new species altogether could arise. Even some critics think this at least a technological possibility. Some supporters also believe the emergence of a new, improved, superhuman species raises no special ethical questions. Through an examination of the metaphysics of species, and an analysis of the essence of the human species, I argue that the existence of an embodied, genuinely superhuman species is a metaphysical impossibility. Finally, I point out an interesting ethical consideration that this metaphysical truth raises.

Cortical hot spots and labyrinths: why cortical neuromodulation for episodic migraine with aura should be personalized

Stimulation protocols for medical devices should be rationally designed. For episodic migraine with aura we outline model-based design strategies toward preventive and acute therapies using stereotactic cortical neuromodulation. To this end, we regard a localized spreading depression (SD) wave segment as a central element in migraine pathophysiology. To describe nucleation and propagation features of the SD wave segment, we define the new concepts of cortical hot spots and labyrinths, respectively. In particular, we firstly focus exclusively on curvature-induced dynamical properties by studying a generic reaction-diffusion model of SD on the folded cortical surface. This surface is described with increasing level of details, including finally personalized simulations using patient's magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner readings. At this stage, the only relevant factor that can modulate nucleation and propagation paths is the Gaussian curvature, which has the advantage of being rather readily accessible by MRI. We conclude with discussing further anatomical factors, such as areal, laminar, and cellular heterogeneity, that in addition to and in relation to Gaussian curvature determine the generalized concept of cortical hot spots and labyrinths as target structures for neuromodulation. Our numerical simulations suggest that these target structures are like fingerprints, they are individual features of each migraine sufferer. The goal in the future will be to provide individualized neural tissue simulations. These simulations should predict the clinical data and therefore can also serve as a test bed for exploring stereotactic cortical neuromodulation.