The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts.

Using high-frequency water quality data to assess sampling strategies for the EU Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that the ecological and chemical status of water bodies in Europe should be assessed, and action taken where possible to ensure that at least "good" quality is attained in each case by 2015. This paper is concerned with the accuracy and precision with which chemical status in rivers can be measured given certain sampling strategies, and how this can be improved. High-frequency (hourly) chemical data from four rivers in southern England were subsampled to simulate different sampling strategies for four parameters used for WFD classification: dissolved phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, pH and water temperature. These data sub-sets were then used to calculate the WFD classification for each site. Monthly sampling was less precise than weekly sampling, but the effect on WFD classification depended on the closeness of the range of concentrations to the class boundaries. In some cases, monthly sampling for a year could result in the same water body being assigned to three or four of the WFD classes with 95% confidence, due to random sampling effects, whereas with weekly sampling this was one or two classes for the same cases. In the most extreme case, the same water body could have been assigned to any of the five WFD quality classes. Weekly sampling considerably reduces the uncertainties compared to monthly sampling. The width of the weekly sampled confidence intervals was about 33% that of the monthly for P species and pH, about 50% for dissolved oxygen, and about 67% for water temperature. For water temperature, which is assessed as the 98th percentile in the UK, monthly sampling biases the mean downwards by about 1 °C compared to the true value, due to problems of assessing high percentiles with limited data. Low-frequency measurements will generally be unsuitable for assessing standards expressed as high percentiles. Confining sampling to the working week compared to all 7 days made little difference, but a modest improvement in precision could be obtained by sampling at the same time of day within a 3 h time window, and this is recommended. For parameters with a strong diel variation, such as dissolved oxygen, the value obtained, and thus possibly the WFD classification, can depend markedly on when in the cycle the sample was taken. Specifying this in the sampling regime would be a straightforward way to improve precision, but there needs to be agreement about how best to characterise risk in different types of river. These results suggest that in some cases it will be difficult to assign accurate WFD chemical classes or to detect likely trends using current sampling regimes, even for these largely groundwater-fed rivers. A more critical approach to sampling is needed to ensure that management actions are appropriate and supported by data.

Electronic structure of Pd multi-layers on Re(0001): the role of charge transfer

Understanding the origin of the properties of metal-supported metal thin films is important for the rational design of bimetallic catalysts and other applications, but it is generally difficult to separate effects related to strain from those arising from interface interactions. Here we use density functional (DFT) theory to examine the structure and electronic behavior of few-layer palladium films on the rhenium (0001) surface, where there is negligible interfacial strain and therefore other effects can be isolated. Our DFT calculations predict stacking sequences and interlayer separations in excellent agreement with quantitative low-energy electron diffraction experiments. By theoretically simulating the Pd core-level X-ray photoemission spectra (XPS) of the films, we are able to interpret and assign the basic features of both low-resolution and high-resolution XPS measurements. The core levels at the interface shift to more negative energies, rigidly following the shifts in the same direction of the valence d-band center. We demonstrate that the valence band shift at the interface is caused by charge transfer from Re to Pd, which occurs mainly to valence states of hybridized s-p character rather than to the Pd d-band. Since the d-band filling is roughly constant, there is a correlation between the d-band center shift and its bandwidth. The resulting effect of this charge transfer on the valence d-band is thus analogous to the application of a lateral compressive strain on the adlayers. Our analysis suggests that charge transfer should be considered when describing the origin of core and valence band shifts in other metal / metal adlayer systems.

The relationship between L3 transfer and structural similarity across L3 development: raising across an experience in Brazilian Portuguese

The present study examines three competing models of morphosyntactic transfer in third language (L3) acquisition, examining the particular domain of the feature configuration of embedded T in L3 Brazilian Portuguese (BP) at the initial stages and then through development. The methodology alternates Spanish and English as the L1 and L2 to tease apart the source of transfer to L3 BP. Results from a scalar grammaticality acceptability task show unequivocal transfer of Spanish irrespective of Spanish’s status as an L1 or L2. The data thus support the Typological Primacy Model (Rothman 2010, 2011, 2013a, 2013b), which proposes that multilingual transfer is selected by factors related to comparative structural similarity. Given that Spanish transfer at the L3 initial stages creates the need for feature reconfiguration to converge on the target BP grammar, the second part of this chapter examines the developmental consequences of what the TPM models in cases of non-facilitative initial transfer, that is, the developmental path of feature reconfiguration of embedded T in L3 BP by English/Spanish bilinguals. Given what these data reveal, we address the role of regressive transfer as a correlate of L3 proficiency gains.

An assessment of upper ocean salinity content from the ocean reanalyses inter-comparison project (ORA-IP)

Many institutions worldwide have developed ocean reanalyses systems (ORAs) utilizing a variety of ocean models and assimilation techniques. However, the quality of salinity reanalyses arising from the various ORAs has not yet been comprehensively assessed. In this study, we assess the upper ocean salinity content (depth-averaged over 0–700 m) from 14 ORAs and 3 objective ocean analysis systems (OOAs) as part of the Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project. Our results show that the best agreement between estimates of salinity from different ORAs is obtained in the tropical Pacific, likely due to relatively abundant atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The largest disagreement in salinity reanalyses is in the Southern Ocean along the Antarctic circumpolar current as a consequence of the sparseness of both atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The West Pacific warm pool is the largest region where the signal to noise ratio of reanalysed salinity anomalies is >1. Therefore, the current salinity reanalyses in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be more reliable than those in the Southern Ocean and regions along the western boundary currents. Moreover, we found that the assimilation of salinity in ocean regions with relatively strong ocean fronts is still a common problem as seen in most ORAs. The impact of the Argo data on the salinity reanalyses is visible, especially within the upper 500m, where the interannual variability is large. The increasing trend in global-averaged salinity anomalies can only be found within the top 0–300m layer, but with quite large diversity among different ORAs. Beneath the 300m depth, the global-averaged salinity anomalies from most ORAs switch their trends from a slightly growing trend before 2002 to a decreasing trend after 2002. The rapid switch in the trend is most likely an artefact of the dramatic change in the observing system due to the implementation of Argo.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

The impact of charge transfer and structural disorder on the thermoelectric properties of cobalt intercalated TiS2

A family of phases, CoxTiS2 (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.75) has been prepared and characterised by powder X-ray and neutron diffraction, electrical and thermal transport property measurements, thermal analysis and SQUID magnetometry. With increasing cobalt content, the structure evolves from a disordered arrangement of cobalt ions in octahedral sites located in the van der Waals’ gap (x ≤ 0.2), through three different ordered vacancy phases, to a second disordered phase at x ≥ 0.67. Powder neutron diffraction reveals that both octahedral and tetrahedral inter-layer sites are occupied in Co0.67TiS2. Charge transfer from the cobalt guest to the TiS2 host affords a systematic tuning of the electrical and thermal transport properties. At low levels of cobalt intercalation (x < 0.1), the charge transfer increases the electrical conductivity sufficiently to offset the concomitant reduction in |S|. This, together with a reduction in the overall thermal conductivity leads to thermoelectric figures of merit that are 25 % higher than that of TiS2, ZT reaching 0.30 at 573 K for CoxTiS2 with 0.04 ≤ x ≤ 0.08. Whilst the electrical conductivity is further increased at higher cobalt contents, the reduction in |S| is more marked due to the higher charge carrier concentration. Furthermore both the charge carrier and lattice contributions to the thermal conductivity are increased in the electrically conductive ordered-vacancy phases, with the result that the thermoelectric performance is significantly degraded. These results illustrate the competition between the effects of charge transfer from guest to host and the disorder generated when cobalt cations are incorporated in the inter-layer space.

Proper evaluation of the external convective heat transfer for the thermal analysis of cool roofs

Cool materials are characterized by high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance; when applied to the external surface of a roof, they make it possible to limit the amount of solar irradiance absorbed by the roof, and to increase the rate of heat flux emitted by irradiation to the environment, especially during nighttime. However, a roof also releases heat by convection on its external surface; this mechanism is not negligible, and an incorrect evaluation of its entity might introduce significant inaccuracy in the assessment of the thermal performance of a cool roof, in terms of surface temperature and rate of heat flux transferred to the indoors. This issue is particularly relevant in numerical simulations, which are essential in the design stage, therefore it deserves adequate attention. In the present paper, a review of the most common algorithms used for the calculation of the convective heat transfer coefficient due to wind on horizontal building surfaces is presented. Then, with reference to a case study in Italy, the simulated results are compared to the outcomes of a measurement campaign. Hence, the most appropriate algorithms for the convective coefficient are identified, and the errors deriving by an incorrect selection of this coefficient are discussed.

Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550 nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in 5 AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) models (GOCART, HadGEM3, ECHAM5-HAM2, OsloCTM2 and SPRINTARS). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlights the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, POLDER ACSSA is best reproduced by models with a high imaginary part of black carbon refractive index, in accordance with recent recommendations.