Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill.

The future of lean construction: a brave new world

Lean construction is considered from a human resource management (HRM) perspective. It is contended that the UK construction sector is characterised by an institutionalised regressive approach to HRM. In the face of rapidly declining recruitment rates for built environment courses, the dominant HRM philosophy of utilitarian instrumentalism does little to attract the intelligent and creative young people that the industry so badly needs. Given this broader context, there is a danger that an uncritical acceptance of lean construction will exacerbate the industry's reputation for unrewarding jobs. Construction academics have strangely ignored the extensive literature that equates lean production to a HRM regime of control, exploitation and surveillance. The emphasis of lean thinking on eliminating waste and improving efficiency makes it easy to absorb into the best practice agenda because it conforms to the existing dominant way of thinking. 'Best practice' is seemingly judged by the extent to which it serves the interests of the industry's technocratic elite. Hence it acts as a conservative force in favour of maintaining the status quo. In this respect, lean construction is the latest manifestation of a long established trend. In common with countless other improvement initiatives, the rhetoric is heavy in the machine metaphor whilst exhorting others to be more efficient. If current trends in lean construction are extrapolated into the future the ultimate destination may be uncomfortably close to Aldous Huxley's apocalyptic vision of a Brave New World. In the face of these trends, the lean construction research community pleads neutrality whilst confining its attention to the rational high ground. The future of lean construction is not yet predetermined. Many choices remain to be made. The challenge for the research community is to improve practice whilst avoiding the dehumanising tendencies of high utilitarianism.

Holocene palaeoenvironmental history and the impact of prehistoric salt production in the Seille Valley, Eastern France

The Seille Valley in eastern France was home to one of Europe’s largest Iron Age salt industries. Sedimentology, palynology and geochronology have been integrated within ongoing archaeological investigations to reconstruct the Holocene palaeoenvironmental history of the Seille Valley and to elucidate the human–environment relationship of salt production. A sedimentary model of the valley has been constructed from a borehole survey of the floodplain and pollen analyses have been undertaken to reconstruct the vegetation history. Alluvial records have been successfully dated using optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon techniques, thereby providing a robust chronological framework. The results have provided an insight into the development of favourable conditions for salt production and there is evidence in the sedimentary record to suggest that salt production may have taken place during the mid-to-late Bronze Age. The latter has yet to be identified in the archaeological record and targeted excavation is therefore underway to test this finding. The development of the Iron Age industry had a major impact on the hydrological regime of the valley and its sedimentological history, with evidence for accelerated alluviation arising from floodplain erosion at salt production sites and modification of the local fluvial regime due to briquetage accumulation on the floodplain. This research provides an important insight into the environmental implications of early industrial activities, in addition to advancing knowledge about the Holocene palaeoenvironmental and social history of this previously poorly studied region of France.

A simple column model to explore anticipated problems in variational assimilation of satellite observations

We investigate a simplified form of variational data assimilation in a fully nonlinear framework with the aim of extracting dynamical development information from a sequence of observations over time. Information on the vertical wind profile, w(z ), and profiles of temperature, T (z , t), and total water content, qt (z , t), as functions of height, z , and time, t, are converted to brightness temperatures at a single horizontal location by defining a two-dimensional (vertical and time) variational assimilation testbed. The profiles of T and qt are updated using a vertical advection scheme. A basic cloud scheme is used to obtain the fractional cloud amount and, when combined with the temperature field, this information is converted into a brightness temperature, using a simple radiative transfer scheme. It is shown that our model exhibits realistic behaviour with regard to the prediction of cloud, but the effects of nonlinearity become non-negligible in the variational data assimilation algorithm. A careful analysis of the application of the data assimilation scheme to this nonlinear problem is presented, the salient difficulties are highlighted, and suggestions for further developments are discussed.

Dielectric properties of process cheese from 0.3 to 3 Ghz

Dielectric properties of 16 process cheeses were determined over the frequency range 0.3-3 GHz. The effect of temperature on the dielectric properties of process cheeses were investigated at temperature intervals of 10 degrees C between 5 and 85 degrees C. Results showed that the dielectric constant decreased gradually as frequency increased, for all cheeses. The dielectric loss factor (epsilon") decreased from above 125 to below 12 as frequency increased. epsilon' was highest at 5 degrees C and generally decreased up to a temperature between 55 and 75 degrees C. epsilon" generally increased with increasing temperature for high and medium moisture/fat ratio cheeses. epsilon" decreased with temperature between 5 and 55 degrees C and then increased, for low moisture/fat ratio cheese. Partial least square regression models indicated that epsilon' and epsilon" could be used as a quality control screening application to measure moisture content and inorganic salt content of process cheese, respectively. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..

Development of a light scatter sensor technology for on-line monitoring of milk coagulation and whey separation

The objective of this study was to investigate a novel light backscatter sensor, with a large field of view relative to curd size, for continuous on-line monitoring of coagulation and syneresis to improve curd moisture content control. A three-level, central composite design was employed to study the effects of temperature, cutting time, and CaCl2 addition on cheese making parameters. The sensor signal was recorded and analyzed. The light backscatter ratio followed a sigmoid increase during coagulation and decreased asymptotically after gel cutting. Curd yield and curd moisture content were predicted from the time to the maximum slope of the first derivative of the light backscatter ratio during coagulation and the decrease in the sensor response during syneresis. Whey fat was affected by coagulation kinetics and cutting time, suggesting curd rheological properties at cutting are dominant factors determining fat losses. The proposed technology shows potential for on-line monitoring of coagulation and syneresis. 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..

Advances in continuously profiling the thermodynamic state of the boundary layer: integration of measurements and methods

This paper describes advances in ground-based thermodynamic profiling of the lower troposphere through sensor synergy. The well-documented integrated profiling technique (IPT), which uses a microwave profiler, a cloud radar, and a ceilometer to simultaneously retrieve vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and liquid water content (LWC) of nonprecipitating clouds, is further developed toward an enhanced performance in the boundary layer and lower troposphere. For a more accurate temperature profile, this is accomplished by including an elevation scanning measurement modus of the microwave profiler. Height-dependent RMS accuracies of temperature (humidity) ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 K (0.5–0.8 g m−3) in the boundary layer are derived from retrieval simulations and confirmed experimentally with measurements at distinct heights taken during the 2005 International Lindenberg Campaign for Assessment of Humidity and Cloud Profiling Systems and its Impact on High-Resolution Modeling (LAUNCH) of the German Weather Service. Temperature inversions, especially of the lower boundary layer, are captured in a very satisfactory way by using the elevation scanning mode. To improve the quality of liquid water content measurements in clouds the authors incorporate a sophisticated target classification scheme developed within the European cloud observing network CloudNet. It allows the detailed discrimination between different types of backscatterers detected by cloud radar and ceilometer. Finally, to allow IPT application also to drizzling cases, an LWC profiling method is integrated. This technique classifies the detected hydrometeors into three different size classes using certain thresholds determined by radar reflectivity and/or ceilometer extinction profiles. By inclusion into IPT, the retrieved profiles are made consistent with the measurements of the microwave profiler and an LWC a priori profile. Results of IPT application to 13 days of the LAUNCH campaign are analyzed, and the importance of integrated profiling for model evaluation is underlined.

Determination of the degradation kinetics of anthocyanins in a model juice system using isothermal and non-isothermal methods

The effect of temperature on the degradation of blackcurrant anthocyanins in a model juice system was determined over a temperature range of 4–140 °C. The thermal degradation of anthocyanins followed pseudo first-order kinetics. From 4–100 °C an isothermal method was used to determine the kinetic parameters. In order to mimic the temperature profile in retort systems, a non-isothermal method was applied to determine the kinetic parameters in the model juice over the temperature range 110–140 °C. The results from both isothermal and non-isothermal methods fit well together, indicating that the non-isothermal procedure is a reliable mathematical method to determine the kinetics of anthocyanin degradation. The reaction rate constant (k) increased from 0.16 (±0.01) × 10−3 to 9.954 (±0.004) h−1 at 4 and 140 °C, respectively. The temperature dependence of the rate of anthocyanin degradation was modelled by an extension of the Arrhenius equation, which showed a linear increase in the activation energy with temperature.

BbgIV is an important Bifidobacterium β-galactosidase for the synthesis of prebiotic galactooligosaccharides at high temperatures

The individual contribution of four β-galactosidases present in Bifidobacterium bifidum NCIMB 41171 towards galactooligosaccharides (GOS) synthesis was investigated. Although the β-galactosidase activity of the whole cells significantly decreased as a function of temperature (40 to 75 °C), GOS yield was at its maximum at 65 °C. Native-PAGE electrophoresis of the whole cells showed that the contribution of BbgIII and BbgIV towards GOS synthesis increased as the temperature increased. Moreover, BbgIII and BbgIV were found to be more temperature stable and to produce a higher GOS yield than BbgI and BbgII, when used in their free form. The GOS yield using BbgIV was 54.8 % (% of total carbohydrates) and 63.9 % (% lactose converted to GOS) at 65 °C from 43 % w/w lactose. It was shown that BbgIV is the most important β-galactosidase in B. bifidum NCIMB 41171 and can be used for GOS synthesis at elevated temperatures.

The ecology of lizard reproductive output

Aim  We provide a new quantitative analysis of lizard reproductive ecology. Comparative studies of lizard reproduction to date have usually considered life-history components separately. Instead, we examine the rate of production (productivity hereafter) calculated as the total mass of offspring produced in a year. We test whether productivity is influenced by proxies of adult mortality rates such as insularity and fossorial habits, by measures of temperature such as environmental and body temperatures, mode of reproduction and activity times, and by environmental productivity and diet. We further examine whether low productivity is linked to high extinction risk. Location  World-wide. Methods  We assembled a database containing 551 lizard species, their phylogenetic relationships and multiple life history and ecological variables from the literature. We use phylogenetically informed statistical models to estimate the factors related to lizard productivity. Results  Some, but not all, predictions of metabolic and life-history theories are supported. When analysed separately, clutch size, relative clutch mass and brood frequency are poorly correlated with body mass, but their product – productivity – is well correlated with mass. The allometry of productivity scales similarly to metabolic rate, suggesting that a constant fraction of assimilated energy is allocated to production irrespective of body size. Island species were less productive than continental species. Mass-specific productivity was positively correlated with environmental temperature, but not with body temperature. Viviparous lizards were less productive than egg-laying species. Diet and primary productivity were not associated with productivity in any model. Other effects, including lower productivity of fossorial, nocturnal and active foraging species were confounded with phylogeny. Productivity was not lower in species at risk of extinction. Main conclusions  Our analyses show the value of focusing on the rate of annual biomass production (productivity), and generally supported associations between productivity and environmental temperature, factors that affect mortality and the number of broods a lizard can produce in a year, but not with measures of body temperature, environmental productivity or diet.

Varietal effects of cowpea, Vigna unguiculata, on tolerance to malathion in Callosobruchus maculatus (Coleoptera: Bruchidae)

The impact of cowpea variety on the response of cowpea bruchid, Callosobruchus maculatus, to malathion was investigated. The interaction of six cowpea varieties (Adamawa Brown, Ife BPC, Ife Brown, Lilongwe, Ntcheu and NCRI-L25) with the geographical strains of C. maculatus (Brazil and Cameroon), temperature (23, 25, 27 C) and insecticide concentration were considered. Cowpea variety (V) had an unpredictable effect on C. maculatus response to malathion. Bruchid populations produced by Ife BPC were the most susceptible to malathion while those yielded by NCRI-L25 were the most tolerant. Regardless of the cowpea variety, the Brazil strain showed higher tolerance than the Cameroon strain. There was significant effect of temperature (T) and insecticide concentration (C) on malathion tolerance in both strains (S). Likewise, there was significant impact of all two-way interactions on cowpea bruchid tolerance except V x C. Significant three-way interactions on C. maculatus tolerance to malathion was only observed in S T V and S T C. The predictability of changing one of the factors on the susceptibility of C. maculatus to insecticide was very low. This study suggests a need to take the insecticide tolerance of insect populations produced by novel varieties into account during plant breeding in addition to factors such as yield and resistance to insect and disease attack.

Evaluation of ice cloud representation in the ECMWF and UK Met Office models using CloudSat and CALIPSO data

Ice cloud representation in general circulation models remains a challenging task, due to the lack of accurate observations and the complexity of microphysical processes. In this article, we evaluate the ice water content (IWC) and ice cloud fraction statistical distributions from the numerical weather prediction models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office, exploiting the synergy between the CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar. Using the last three weeks of July 2006, we analyse the global ice cloud occurrence as a function of temperature and latitude and show that the models capture the main geographical and temperature-dependent distributions, but overestimate the ice cloud occurrence in the Tropics in the temperature range from −60 °C to −20 °C and in the Antarctic for temperatures higher than −20 °C, but underestimate ice cloud occurrence at very low temperatures. A global statistical comparison of the occurrence of grid-box mean IWC at different temperatures shows that both the mean and range of IWC increases with increasing temperature. Globally, the models capture most of the IWC variability in the temperature range between −60 °C and −5 °C, and also reproduce the observed latitudinal dependencies in the IWC distribution due to different meteorological regimes. Two versions of the ECMWF model are assessed. The recent operational version with a diagnostic representation of precipitating snow and mixed-phase ice cloud fails to represent the IWC distribution in the −20 °C to 0 °C range, but a new version with prognostic variables for liquid water, ice and snow is much closer to the observed distribution. The comparison of models and observations provides a much-needed analysis of the vertical distribution of IWC across the globe, highlighting the ability of the models to reproduce much of the observed variability as well as the deficiencies where further improvements are required.

A wide-angle X-ray study of the development of molecular orientation in crosslinked natural rubber

Molecular orientation parameters have been measured for the non-crystalline component of crosslinked natural rubber samples deformed in uniaxial tension as a function of the extension ratio and of temperature. The orientation parapeters 〈P2(cosα)〉 and 〈P4(cosα)〉 were obtained by an analysis of the anisotropy of the wide-angle X-ray scattering functions. For the measurements made at high temperatures the level of crystallinity detected was negligible and the orientation-strain behaviour could be compared directly with the predictions of molecular models of rubber elasticity. The molecular orientation behaviour with strain was found to be at variance with the estimates of the affine model particularly at low and moderate strains. Extension of the crosslinked rubber at room temperature led to strain-crystallization and measurements of both the molecular orientation of the non-crystalline chains and the degree of crystallinity during extension and relaxation enabled the role of the crystallites in the deformation process to be considered in detail. The intrinsic birefringence of the non-crystalline component was estimated, through the use of the 〈P2(cosα)〉 values obtained from X-ray scattering measurements, to be 0.20±0.02.

Estimation of systematic error in an equatorial ocean model using data assimilation

Assimilation of temperature observations into an ocean model near the equator often results in a dynamically unbalanced state with unrealistic overturning circulations. The way in which these circulations arise from systematic errors in the model or its forcing is discussed. A scheme is proposed, based on the theory of state augmentation, which uses the departures of the model state from the observations to update slowly evolving bias fields. Results are summarized from an experiment applying this bias correction scheme to an ocean general circulation model. They show that the method produces more balanced analyses and a better fit to the temperature observations.

The effect of nonlinearity on the variational assimilation of satellite observations using a simple column model

Cloud imagery is not currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extract the type of dynamical information that experienced forecasters have extracted subjectively for many years. For example, rapidly developing mid-latitude cyclones have characteristic signatures in the cloud imagery that are most fully appreciated from a sequence of images rather than from a single image. The Met Office is currently developing a technique to extract dynamical development information from satellite imagery using their full incremental 4D-Var (four-dimensional variational data assimilation) system. We investigate a simplified form of this technique in a fully nonlinear framework. We convert information on the vertical wind field, w(z), and profiles of temperature, T(z, t), and total water content, qt (z, t), as functions of height, z, and time, t, to a single brightness temperature by defining a 2D (vertical and time) variational assimilation testbed. The profiles of w, T and qt are updated using a simple vertical advection scheme. We define a basic cloud scheme to obtain the fractional cloud amount and, when combined with the temperature field, we convert this information into a brightness temperature, having developed a simple radiative transfer scheme. With the exception of some matrix inversion routines, all our code is developed from scratch. Throughout the development process we test all aspects of our 2D assimilation system, and then run identical twin experiments to try and recover information on the vertical velocity, from a sequence of observations of brightness temperature. This thesis contains a comprehensive description of our nonlinear models and assimilation system, and the first experimental results.