Changes to Indian Ocean subantarctic mode water in a coupled climate model as CO2 forcing increases

Subantarctic mode water (SAMW) has been shown to be a good indicator of anthropogenic climate change in coupled climate models. SAMW in a coupled climate model and the response of modeled SAMW to increasing CO2 are examined in detail. How SAMW adjusts from climatological values toward a new equilibrium in the coupled model, with different climatological temperature and salinity properties, is shown. The combined formation rate of SAMW and Antarctic intermediate water is calculated as approximately 18 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, slightly lower than climatological values would suggest. When forced with increasing CO2, SAMW is produced at a similar rate but at lower densities. This result suggests that the rate of heat uptake in this part of the ocean will be unchanged by anthropogenic forcing. The important signal in the response of SAMW is the shift to colder and fresher values on isopycnals that is believed to be related to changes in thermodynamic surface forcing. It is shown that, given uniform forcing, SAMW is expected to enhance the signal relative to other water masses. Independent increases in surface heating or freshwater forcing can produce changes similar to those observed, but the two different types of forcing are distinguishable using separate forcing experiments, hodographs, and passive anomaly tracers. The changes in SAMW forced by increasing CO2 are dominated by surface heating, but changes to freshwater fluxes are also important.

An ocean modelling and assimilation guide to using GOCE geoid products

We review the procedures and challenges that must be considered when using geoid data derived from the Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission in order to constrain the circulation and water mass representation in an ocean 5 general circulation model. It covers the combination of the geoid information with timemean sea level information derived from satellite altimeter data, to construct a mean dynamic topography (MDT), and considers how this complements the time-varying sea level anomaly, also available from the satellite altimeter. We particularly consider the compatibility of these different fields in their spatial scale content, their temporal rep10 resentation, and in their error covariances. These considerations are very important when the resulting data are to be used to estimate ocean circulation and its corresponding errors. We describe the further steps needed for assimilating the resulting dynamic topography information into an ocean circulation model using three different operational fore15 casting and data assimilation systems. We look at methods used for assimilating altimeter anomaly data in the absence of a suitable geoid, and then discuss different approaches which have been tried for assimilating the additional geoid information. We review the problems that have been encountered and the lessons learned in order the help future users. Finally we present some results from the use of GRACE geoid in20 formation in the operational oceanography community and discuss the future potential gains that may be obtained from a new GOCE geoid.

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

Atlantic Heat Conveyor (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is part of a global ocean circulation that redistributes heat from Equatorial to Polar regions. In the Atlantic the MOC carries heat northward (the Atlantic Heat Conveyor) which is released to the atmosphere and maintains UK temperatures between 3 to 5°C higher than elsewhere at similar latitudes. However, the present strength and structure of the MOC may not continue. The 2007 IPCC assessment report (IPCC, 2007) suggests that there is less than 10% chance of abrupt changes during the 21st Century, but that there is greater than 90% chance that MOC will slow by an average of 25% compared to pre-industrial levels, offsetting some of the warming over the European sector of the North Atlantic, and contributing to the rate of sea-level-rise. Daily observations using the RAPID MOC mooring array at 26.5°N are providing a continuous and growing time-series of the MOC strength and structure, but the five year record is at present too short to establish trends in the annual mean MOC. Other observations do not at present provide a coherent Atlantic wide picture of MOC variability, and there is little evidence of any long-term slowing. Ocean assimilation models suggest a slowing over the past decade of around 10%. However, models still have many problems in representing ocean circulation and conclusions of change are very uncertain.

Spatio-temporal surface soil heat flux estimates from satellite data: results for the AMMA experiment at the Fakara (Niger) supersite

This paper describes a method that employs Earth Observation (EO) data to calculate spatiotemporal estimates of soil heat flux, G, using a physically-based method (the Analytical Method). The method involves a harmonic analysis of land surface temperature (LST) data. It also requires an estimate of near-surface soil thermal inertia; this property depends on soil textural composition and varies as a function of soil moisture content. The EO data needed to drive the model equations, and the ground-based data required to provide verification of the method, were obtained over the Fakara domain within the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program. LST estimates (3 km × 3 km, one image 15 min−1) were derived from MSG-SEVIRI data. Soil moisture estimates were obtained from ENVISAT-ASAR data, while estimates of leaf area index, LAI, (to calculate the effect of the canopy on G, largely due to radiation extinction) were obtained from SPOT-HRV images. The variation of these variables over the Fakara domain, and implications for values of G derived from them, were discussed. Results showed that this method provides reliable large-scale spatiotemporal estimates of G. Variations in G could largely be explained by the variability in the model input variables. Furthermore, it was shown that this method is relatively insensitive to model parameters related to the vegetation or soil texture. However, the strong sensitivity of thermal inertia to soil moisture content at low values of relative saturation (<0.2) means that in arid or semi-arid climates accurate estimates of surface soil moisture content are of utmost importance, if reliable estimates of G are to be obtained. This method has the potential to improve large-scale evaporation estimates, to aid land surface model prediction and to advance research that aims to explain failure in energy balance closure of meteorological field studies.

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

Transports and budgets in a 1/4 ° global ocean reanalysis 1989–2010

Large-scale ocean transports of heat and freshwater have not been well monitored, and yet the regional budgets of these quantities are important to understanding the role of the oceans in climate and climate change. In contrast, atmospheric heat and freshwater transports are commonly assessed from atmospheric reanalysis products, despite the presence of non-conserving data assimilation based on the wealth of distributed atmospheric observations as constraints. The ability to carry out ocean reanalyses globally at eddy-permitting resolutions of 1/4 ° or better, along with new global ocean observation programs, now makes a similar approach viable for the ocean. In this paper we examine the budgets and transports within a global high resolution ocean model constrained by ocean data assimilation, and compare them with independent oceanic and atmospheric estimates.

A global perspective on Langmuir turbulence in the ocean surface boundary layer.

The turbulent mixing in thin ocean surface boundary layers (OSBL), which occupy the upper 100 m or so of the ocean, control the exchange of heat and trace gases between the atmosphere and ocean. Here we show that current parameterizations of this turbulent mixing lead to systematic and substantial errors in the depth of the OSBL in global climate models, which then leads to biases in sea surface temperature. One reason, we argue, is that current parameterizations are missing key surface-wave processes that force Langmuir turbulence that deepens the OSBL more rapidly than steady wind forcing. Scaling arguments are presented to identify two dimensionless parameters that measure the importance of wave forcing against wind forcing, and against buoyancy forcing. A global perspective on the occurrence of waveforced turbulence is developed using re-analysis data to compute these parameters globally. The diagnostic study developed here suggests that turbulent energy available for mixing the OSBL is under-estimated without forcing by surface waves. Wave-forcing and hence Langmuir turbulence could be important over wide areas of the ocean and in all seasons in the Southern Ocean. We conclude that surfacewave- forced Langmuir turbulence is an important process in the OSBL that requires parameterization.

The long-term stability of a possible aqueous ammonium sulfate ocean inside Titan

We model the thermal evolution of a subsurface ocean of aqueous ammonium sulfate inside Titan using a parameterized convection scheme. The cooling and crystallization of such an ocean depends on its heat flux balance, and is governed by the pressure-dependent melting temperatures at the top and bottom of the ocean. Using recent observations and previous experimental data, we present a nominal model which predicts the thickness of the ocean throughout the evolution of Titan; after 4.5 Ga we expect an aqueous ammonium sulfate ocean 56 km thick, overlain by a thick (176 km) heterogeneous crust of methane clathrate, ice I and ammonium sulfate. Underplating of the crust by ice I will give rise to compositional diapirs that are capable of rising through the crust and providing a mechanism for cryovolcanism at the surface. We have conducted a parameter space survey to account for possible variations in the nominal model, and find that for a wide range of plausible conditions, an ocean of aqueous ammonium sulfate can survive to the present day, which is consistent with the recent observations of Titan's spin state from Cassini radar data [Lorenz, R.D., Stiles, B.W., Kirk, R.L., Allison, M.D., del Marmo, P.P., Iess, L., Lunine, J.I., Ostro, S.J., Hensley, S., 2008. Science 319, 1649–1651].

The dependence of southern ocean meridional overturning on wind stress

An eddy-resolving numerical model of a zonal flow, meant to resemble the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is described and analyzed using the framework of J. Marshall and T. Radko. In addition to wind and buoyancy forcing at the surface, the model contains a sponge layer at the northern boundary that permits a residual meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to exist at depth. The strength of the residual MOC is diagnosed for different strengths of surface wind stress. It is found that the eddy circulation largely compensates for the changes in Ekman circulation. The extent of the compensation and thus the sensitivity of the MOC to the winds depend on the surface boundary condition. A fixed-heat-flux surface boundary severely limits the ability of the MOC to change. An interactive heat flux leads to greater sensitivity. To explain the MOC sensitivity to the wind strength under the interactive heat flux, transformed Eulerian-mean theory is applied, in which the eddy diffusivity plays a central role in determining the eddy response. A scaling theory for the eddy diffusivity, based on the mechanical energy balance, is developed and tested; the average magnitude of the diffusivity is found to be proportional to the square root of the wind stress. The MOC sensitivity to the winds based on this scaling is compared with the true sensitivity diagnosed from the experiments.

A copper-containing oxytelluride as a promising thermoelectric material for waste heat recovery

The new thermoelectric material BiOCuTe exhibits an electrical conductivity of 224 S cm-1 and a Seebeck coefficient of +186 μV K-1 at 373 K, together with an extremely low lattice thermal conductivity of ∼ 0.5 W m-1 K-1. This results in a ZT of 0.42 at 373 K, which increases to 0.66 at the maximum temperature investigated, 673 K.

The influence of ocean flow on newly forming sea ice

The heat and mass balance of the Arctic Ocean is very sensitive to the growth and decay of sea ice and the interaction between the heat and salt fields in the oceanic boundary layer. The hydraulic roughness of sea ice controls the detailed nature of turbulent fluxes in the boundary layer and hence is an important ingredient in model parameterizations. We describe a novel mechanism for the generation of corrugations of the sea ice–ocean interface, present a mathematical analysis elucidating the mechanism, and present numerical calculations for geophysically relevant conditions. The mechanism relies on brine flows developing in the sea ice due to Bernoulli suction by flow of ocean past the interface. For oceanic shears at the ice interface of 0.2 s−1, we expect the corrugations to form with a wavelength dependent upon the permeability structure of the sea ice which is described herein. The mechanism should be particularly important during sea ice formation in wind-maintained coastal polynyas and in leads. This paper applies our earlier analyses of the fundamental instability to field conditions and extends it to take account of the anisotropic and heterogeneous permeability of sea ice.

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 2: feedbacks with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high latitudes heat budget

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere(-vegetation) simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). Here we quantify the latitudinal shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical regions during boreal summer and the change in precipitation in the northern part of the ITCZ. For both periods the shift is more pronounced over the continents and East Asia. The maritime continent is the region where the largest spread is found between models. We also clearly establish that the larger the increase in the meridional temperature gradient in the tropical Atlantic during summer at the MH, the larger the change in precipitation over West Africa. The vegetation feedback is however not as large as found in previous studies, probably due to model differences in the control simulation. Finally, we show that the feedback from snow and sea-ice at mid and high latitudes contributes for half of the cooling in the Northern Hemisphere for the LGM, with the remaining being achieved by the reduced CO2 and water vapour in the atmosphere. For the MH the snow and albedo feedbacks strengthen the spring cooling and enhance the boreal summer warming, whereas water vapour reinforces the late summer warming. These feedbacks are modest in the Southern Hemisphere. For the LGM most of the surface cooling is due to CO2 and water vapour.

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.

Control of final moisture content of food products baked in continuous tunnel ovens

There are well-known difficulties in making measurements of the moisture content of baked goods (such as bread, buns, biscuits, crackers and cake) during baking or at the oven exit; in this paper several sensing methods are discussed, but none of them are able to provide direct measurement with sufficient precision. An alternative is to use indirect inferential methods. Some of these methods involve dynamic modelling, with incorporation of thermal properties and using techniques familiar in computational fluid dynamics (CFD); a method of this class that has been used for the modelling of heat and mass transfer in one direction during baking is summarized, which may be extended to model transport of moisture within the product and also within the surrounding atmosphere. The concept of injecting heat during the baking process proportional to the calculated heat load on the oven has been implemented in a control scheme based on heat balance zone by zone through a continuous baking oven, taking advantage of the high latent heat of evaporation of water. Tests on biscuit production ovens are reported, with results that support a claim that the scheme gives more reproducible water distribution in the final product than conventional closed loop control of zone ambient temperatures, thus enabling water content to be held more closely within tolerance.