Neural and wavelet network models for financial distress classification

This work analyzes the use of linear discriminant models, multi-layer perceptron neural networks and wavelet networks for corporate financial distress prediction. Although simple and easy to interpret, linear models require statistical assumptions that may be unrealistic. Neural networks are able to discriminate patterns that are not linearly separable, but the large number of parameters involved in a neural model often causes generalization problems. Wavelet networks are classification models that implement nonlinear discriminant surfaces as the superposition of dilated and translated versions of a single "mother wavelet" function. In this paper, an algorithm is proposed to select dilation and translation parameters that yield a wavelet network classifier with good parsimony characteristics. The models are compared in a case study involving failed and continuing British firms in the period 1997-2000. Problems associated with over-parameterized neural networks are illustrated and the Optimal Brain Damage pruning technique is employed to obtain a parsimonious neural model. The results, supported by a re-sampling study, show that both neural and wavelet networks may be a valid alternative to classical linear discriminant models.

A sparse parallel hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm for matrix computations

In this paper we introduce a new algorithm, based on the successful work of Fathi and Alexandrov, on hybrid Monte Carlo algorithms for matrix inversion and solving systems of linear algebraic equations. This algorithm consists of two parts, approximate inversion by Monte Carlo and iterative refinement using a deterministic method. Here we present a parallel hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm, which uses Monte Carlo to generate an approximate inverse and that improves the accuracy of the inverse with an iterative refinement. The new algorithm is applied efficiently to sparse non-singular matrices. When we are solving a system of linear algebraic equations, Bx = b, the inverse matrix is used to compute the solution vector x = B(-1)b. We present results that show the efficiency of the parallel hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm in the case of sparse matrices.

Knowledge-elicitation and data-mining: fusing human and industrial plant information

Knowledge-elicitation is a common technique used to produce rules about the operation of a plant from the knowledge that is available from human expertise. Similarly, data-mining is becoming a popular technique to extract rules from the data available from the operation of a plant. In the work reported here knowledge was required to enable the supervisory control of an aluminium hot strip mill by the determination of mill set-points. A method was developed to fuse knowledge-elicitation and data-mining to incorporate the best aspects of each technique, whilst avoiding known problems. Utilisation of the knowledge was through an expert system, which determined schedules of set-points and provided information to human operators. The results show that the method proposed in this paper was effective in producing rules for the on-line control of a complex industrial process. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fusing data-mining and knowledge elicitation for the supervisory control of an aluminium plate mill

Knowledge-elicitation is a common technique used to produce rules about the operation of a plant from the knowledge that is available from human expertise. Similarly, data-mining is becoming a popular technique to extract rules from the data available from the operation of a plant. In the work reported here knowledge was required to enable the supervisory control of an aluminium hot strip mill by the determination of mill set-points. A method was developed to fuse knowledge-elicitation and data-mining to incorporate the best aspects of each technique, whilst avoiding known problems. Utilisation of the knowledge was through an expert system, which determined schedules of set-points and provided information to human operators. The results show that the method proposed in this paper was effective in producing rules for the on-line control of a complex industrial process.

Landscape state machines: Tools for evolutionary algorithm performance analyses and landscape/algorithm mapping

Many evolutionary algorithm applications involve either fitness functions with high time complexity or large dimensionality (hence very many fitness evaluations will typically be needed) or both. In such circumstances, there is a dire need to tune various features of the algorithm well so that performance and time savings are optimized. However, these are precisely the circumstances in which prior tuning is very costly in time and resources. There is hence a need for methods which enable fast prior tuning in such cases. We describe a candidate technique for this purpose, in which we model a landscape as a finite state machine, inferred from preliminary sampling runs. In prior algorithm-tuning trials, we can replace the 'real' landscape with the model, enabling extremely fast tuning, saving far more time than was required to infer the model. Preliminary results indicate much promise, though much work needs to be done to establish various aspects of the conditions under which it can be most beneficially used. A main limitation of the method as described here is a restriction to mutation-only algorithms, but there are various ways to address this and other limitations.

Error analysis of a Monte Carlo algorithm for computing bilinear forms of matrix powers

In this paper we present error analysis for a Monte Carlo algorithm for evaluating bilinear forms of matrix powers. An almost Optimal Monte Carlo (MAO) algorithm for solving this problem is formulated. Results for the structure of the probability error are presented and the construction of robust and interpolation Monte Carlo algorithms are discussed. Results are presented comparing the performance of the Monte Carlo algorithm with that of a corresponding deterministic algorithm. The two algorithms are tested on a well balanced matrix and then the effects of perturbing this matrix, by small and large amounts, is studied.

Ratio selection for classification models

This paper is concerned with the selection of inputs for classification models based on ratios of measured quantities. For this purpose, all possible ratios are built from the quantities involved and variable selection techniques are used to choose a convenient subset of ratios. In this context, two selection techniques are proposed: one based on a pre-selection procedure and another based on a genetic algorithm. In an example involving the financial distress prediction of companies, the models obtained from ratios selected by the proposed techniques compare favorably to a model using ratios usually found in the financial distress literature.