Investigating preferences for dynamic electricity tariffs: the effect of environmental and system benefit disclosure

Dynamic electricity pricing can produce efficiency gains in the electricity sector and help achieve energy policy goals such as increasing electric system reliability and supporting renewable energy deployment. Retail electric companies can offer dynamic pricing to residential electricity customers via smart meter-enabled tariffs that proxy the cost to procure electricity on the wholesale market. Current investments in the smart metering necessary to implement dynamic tariffs show policy makers’ resolve for enabling responsive demand and realizing its benefits. However, despite these benefits and the potential bill savings these tariffs can offer, adoption among residential customers remains at low levels. Using a choice experiment approach, this paper seeks to determine whether disclosing the environmental and system benefits of dynamic tariffs to residential customers can increase adoption. Although sampling and design issues preclude wide generalization, we found that our environmentally conscious respondents reduced their required discount to switch to dynamic tariffs around 10% in response to higher awareness of environmental and system benefits. The perception that shifting usage is easy to do also had a significant impact, indicating the potential importance of enabling technology. Perhaps the targeted communication strategy employed by this study is one way to increase adoption and achieve policy goals.

Comparing hybrid data assimilation methods on the Lorenz 1963 model with increasing nonlinearity

We systematically compare the performance of ETKF-4DVAR, 4DVAR-BEN and 4DENVAR with respect to two traditional methods (4DVAR and ETKF) and an ensemble transform Kalman smoother (ETKS) on the Lorenz 1963 model. We specifically investigated this performance with increasing nonlinearity and using a quasi-static variational assimilation algorithm as a comparison. Using the analysis root mean square error (RMSE) as a metric, these methods have been compared considering (1) assimilation window length and observation interval size and (2) ensemble size to investigate the influence of hybrid background error covariance matrices and nonlinearity on the performance of the methods. For short assimilation windows with close to linear dynamics, it has been shown that all hybrid methods show an improvement in RMSE compared to the traditional methods. For long assimilation window lengths in which nonlinear dynamics are substantial, the variational framework can have diffculties fnding the global minimum of the cost function, so we explore a quasi-static variational assimilation (QSVA) framework. Of the hybrid methods, it is seen that under certain parameters, hybrid methods which do not use a climatological background error covariance do not need QSVA to perform accurately. Generally, results show that the ETKS and hybrid methods that do not use a climatological background error covariance matrix with QSVA outperform all other methods due to the full flow dependency of the background error covariance matrix which also allows for the most nonlinearity.

Peak residential electricity demand and social practices: Deriving flexibility and greenhouse gas intensities from time use and locational data

Peak residential electricity demand takes place when people conduct simultaneous activities at specific times of the day. Social practices generate patterns of demand and can help understand why, where, with whom and when energy services are used at peak time. The aim of this work is to make use of recent UK time use and locational data to better understand: (i) how a set of component indices on synchronisation, variation, sharing and mobility indicate flexibility to shift demand; and (ii) the links between people’s activities and peaks in greenhouse gases’ intensities. The analysis is based on a recent UK time use dataset, providing 1 minute interval data from GPS devices and 10 minute data from diaries and questionnaires for 175 data days comprising 153 respondents. Findings show how greenhouse gases’ intensities and flexibility to shift activities vary throughout the day. Morning peaks are characterised by high levels of synchronisation, shared activities and occupancy, with low variation of activities. Evening peaks feature low synchronisation, and high spatial mobility variation of activities. From a network operator perspective, the results indicate that periods with lower flexibility may be prone to more significant local network loads due to the synchronization of electricity-demanding activities.

The inconstancy of the transient climate response parameter under increasing CO₂

In the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the model-mean increase in global mean surface air temperature T under the 1pctCO2 scenario (atmospheric CO2 increasing at 1% yr−1) during the second doubling of CO2 is 40% larger than the transient climate response (TCR), i.e. the increase in T during the first doubling. We identify four possible contributory effects. First, the surface climate system loses heat less readily into the ocean beneath as the latter warms. The model spread in the thermal coupling between the upper and deep ocean largely explains the model spread in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Second, CO2 radiative forcing may rise more rapidly than logarithmically with CO2 concentration. Third, the climate feedback parameter may decline as the CO2 concentration rises. With CMIP5 data, we cannot distinguish the second and third possibilities. Fourth, the climate feedback parameter declines as time passes or T rises; in 1pctCO2, this effect is less important than the others. We find that T projected for the end of the twenty-first century correlates more highly with T at the time of quadrupled CO2 in 1pctCO2 than with the TCR, and we suggest that the TCR may be underestimated from observed climate change.

Walking in a winter wonderland? Strategies for Early and Middle Pleistocene survival in mid-latitude Europe

Any occupation of northern Europe by Lower Palaeolithic hominins, even those occurring during full interglacials, must have addressed the challenges of marked seasonality and cold winters. These would have included the problems of: wind-chill and frostbite; duration, distribution and depth of snow-cover; reduced daylight hours; and distribution and availability of animal and plant foods. Solutions can essentially be characterised as a ‘stick or twist’ choice: i.e. year-round presence on a local scale vs. extensive annual mobility. However these options, and the ‘interim’ strategies that lie between them, present various problems, including maintaining core body temperature, meeting the energetic demands of mobility, coping with reduced resource availability and increasing patchiness, and meeting nutritional requirements. The feasibility of different winter survival strategies are explored with reference to Lower Palaeolithic palaeoenvironmental reconstructions and on-site behavioural evidence. Emphasis is placed upon possible strategies for (i) avoiding the excessive lean meat protein problem of ‘rabbit starvation’ (e.g. through exploitation of ‘residential’ species with significant winter body fat and/or by targeting specific body parts, following modern ethnographic examples, supplemented by the exploitation of winter plants); and (ii) maintaining body temperatures (e.g. through managed pyrotechnology, and/or other forms of cultural insulation). The paper concludes with a suggested winter strategy.

A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector of major Canadian cities

One of the most significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Canada is the buildings sector, with over 30% of national energy end-use occurring in buildings. Energy use must be addressed to reduce emissions from the buildings sector, as nearly 70% of all Canada’s energy used in the residential sector comes from fossil sources. An analysis of GHG emissions from the existing residential building stock for the year 2010 has been conducted for six Canadian cities with different climates and development histories: Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, and Halifax. Variation across these cities is seen in their 2010 GHG emissions, due to climate, characteristics of the building stock, and energy conversion technologies, with Halifax having the highest per capita emissions at 5.55 tCO2e/capita and Montreal having the lowest at 0.32 tCO2e/capita. The importance of the provincial electricity grid’s carbon intensity is emphasized, along with era of construction, occupancy, floor area, and climate. Approaches to achieving deep emissions reductions include innovative retrofit financing and city level residential energy conservation by-laws; each region should seek location-appropriate measures to reduce energy demand within its residential housing stock, as well as associated GHG emissions.

The use of ICT by adults with learning disabilities in day and residential services

The use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) by adults with learning disabilities has been positively promoted over the past decade. More recently, policy statements and guidance from the UK government have underlined the importance of ICT for adults with learning disabilities specifically, as well as for the population in general, through the potential it offers for social inclusion. The aim of the present study was to provide a picture of how ICT is currently being used within one organisation providing specialist services for adults with learning disabilities and more specifically to provide a picture of its use in promoting community participation. Nine day and 14 residential services were visited as part of a qualitative study to answer three main questions: What kinds of computer programs are being used? What are they being used for? Does this differ between day and residential services? Computers and digital cameras were used for a wide range of activities and ‘mainstream’ programs were used more widely than those developed for specific user groups. In day services, ICT was often embedded in wider projects and activities, whilst use in houses was based around leisure interests. In both contexts, ICT was being used to facilitate communication, although this was more linked to within-service activities, rather than those external to service provision.

Analysis and clustering of residential customers energy behavioral demand using smart meter data

Clustering methods are increasingly being applied to residential smart meter data, providing a number of important opportunities for distribution network operators (DNOs) to manage and plan the low voltage networks. Clustering has a number of potential advantages for DNOs including, identifying suitable candidates for demand response and improving energy profile modelling. However, due to the high stochasticity and irregularity of household level demand, detailed analytics are required to define appropriate attributes to cluster. In this paper we present in-depth analysis of customer smart meter data to better understand peak demand and major sources of variability in their behaviour. We find four key time periods in which the data should be analysed and use this to form relevant attributes for our clustering. We present a finite mixture model based clustering where we discover 10 distinct behaviour groups describing customers based on their demand and their variability. Finally, using an existing bootstrapping technique we show that the clustering is reliable. To the authors knowledge this is the first time in the power systems literature that the sample robustness of the clustering has been tested.

Location, location, location? Analysing property rents in medieval Gloucester

Although medieval rentals have been extensively studied, few scholars have used them to analyse variations in the rents paid on individual properties within a town. It has been claimed that medieval rents did not reflect economic values or market forces, but were set according to social and political rather than economic criteria, and remained ossified at customary levels. This paper uses hedonic regression methods to test whether property rents in medieval Gloucester were influenced by classic economic factors such as the location and use of a property. It investigates both rents and local rates (landgavel), and explores the relationship between the two. It also examines spatial autocorrelation. It finds significant relationships between urban rents and property characteristics that are similar to those found in modern studies. The findings are consistent with the view that, in Gloucester at least, medieval rents were strongly influenced by classical economic factors working through a competitive urban property market.

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1, 2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4, 5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3, 7, 8, 9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13, 14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Increasing thermal plant flexibility in a high renewables power system

Thermal generation is a vital component of mature and reliable electricity markets. As the share of renewable electricity in such markets grows, so too do the challenges associated with its variability. Proposed solutions to these challenges typically focus on alternatives to primary generation, such as energy storage, demand side management, or increased interconnection. Less attention is given to the demands placed on conventional thermal generation or its potential for increased flexibility. However, for the foreseeable future, conventional plants will have to operate alongside new renewables and have an essential role in accommodating increasing supply-side variability. This paper explores the role that conventional generation has to play in managing variability through the sub-system case study of Northern Ireland, identifying the significance of specific plant characteristics for reliable system operation. Particular attention is given to the challenges of wind ramping and the need to avoid excessive wind curtailment. Potential for conflict is identified with the role for conventional plant in addressing these two challenges. Market specific strategies for using the existing fleet of generation to reduce the impact of renewable resource variability are proposed, and wider lessons from the approach taken are identified.

Impact of increasing fruit and vegetables and flavonoid intake on the human gut microbiota

Epidemiological studies have shown protective effects of fruits and vegetables (F&V) in lowering the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancers. Plant-derived dietary fibre (non-digestible polysaccharides) and/or flavonoids may mediate the observed protective effects particularly through their interaction with the gut microbiota. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake on gut microbiota, with an emphasis on the role of flavonoids, and further to explore relationships between microbiota and factors associated with CVD risk. In the study, a parallel design with 3 study groups, participants in the two intervention groups representing high-flavonoid (HF) and low flavonoid (LF) intakes were asked to increase their daily F&V intake by 2, 4 and 6 portions for a duration of 6 weeks each, while a third (control) group continued with their habitual diet. Faecal samples were collected at baseline and after each dose from 122 subjects. Faecal bacteria enumeration was performed by fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH). Correlations of dietary components, flavonoid intake and markers of CVD with bacterial numbers were also performed. A significant dose X treatment interaction was only found for Clostidium leptum-Ruminococcus bromii/flavefaciens with a significant increase after intake of 6 additional portions in the LF group. Correlation analysis of the data from all 122 subjects independent from dietary intervention indicated an inhibitory role of F&V intake, flavonoid content and sugars against the growth of potentially pathogenic clostridia. Additionally, we observed associations between certain bacterial populations and CVD risk factors including plasma TNF-α, plasma lipids and BMI/waist circumference.

Simultaneous activities in the household and residential electricity demand in Spain

Recent research and policy studies on the low-carbon future highlight the importance of flexible electricity demand. This might be problematic particularly for residential electricity demand, which is related to simultaneous consumers’ practices in the household. This paper analyses issues of simultaneity in residential electricity demand in Spain. It makes use of the 2011 Spanish Time Use Survey data with comparisons from the previous Spanish Time Use Survey and the Harmonised European Time Use Surveys. Findings show that media activities are associated the highest levels of continuity and simultaneity, particularly in the early and late parts of the evening during weekdays.

A survey on wireless body area networks for eHealthcare systems in residential environments

The progress in wearable and implanted health monitoring technologies has strong potential to alter the future of healthcare services by enabling ubiquitous monitoring of patients. A typical health monitoring system consists of a network of wearable or implanted sensors that constantly monitor physiological parameters. Collected data are relayed using existing wireless communication protocols to the base station for additional processing. This article provides researchers with information to compare the existing low-power communication technologies that can potentially support the rapid development and deployment of WBAN systems, and mainly focuses on remote monitoring of elderly or chronically ill patients in residential environments.