Has Jesus’ Nazareth house been found?

Summary and discussion of the work of the Nazareth Archaeological Project between 2004-2010, focussing on the discovery of a first-century AD house below the 'lost' Byzantine 'Church of the Nutrition', said to have been built over the house where Jesus Christ was brought up.

An assessment of the impact of local processes on dust lifting in martian climate models

Simulation of the lifting of dust from the planetary surface is of substantially greater importance on Mars than on Earth, due to the fundamental role that atmospheric dust plays in the former’s climate, yet the dust emission parameterisations used to date in martian global climate models (MGCMs) lag, understandably, behind their terrestrial counterparts in terms of sophistication. Recent developments in estimating surface roughness length over all martian terrains and in modelling atmospheric circulations at regional to local scales (less than O(100 km)) presents an opportunity to formulate an improved wind stress lifting parameterisation. We have upgraded the conventional scheme by including the spatially varying roughness length in the lifting parameterisation in a fully consistent manner (thereby correcting a possible underestimation of the true threshold level for wind stress lifting), and used a modification to account for deviations from neutral stability in the surface layer. Following these improvements, it is found that wind speeds at typical MGCM resolution never reach the lifting threshold at most gridpoints: winds fall particularly short in the southern midlatitudes, where mean roughness is large. Sub-grid scale variability, manifested in both the near-surface wind field and the surface roughness, is then considered, and is found to be a crucial means of bridging the gap between model winds and thresholds. Both forms of small-scale variability contribute to the formation of dust emission ‘hotspots’: areas within the model gridbox with particularly favourable conditions for lifting, namely a smooth surface combined with strong near-surface gusts. Such small-scale emission could in fact be particularly influential on Mars, due both to the intense positive radiative feedbacks that can drive storm growth and a strong hysteresis effect on saltation. By modelling this variability, dust lifting is predicted at the locations at which dust storms are frequently observed, including the flushing storm sources of Chryse and Utopia, and southern midlatitude areas from which larger storms tend to initiate, such as Hellas and Solis Planum. The seasonal cycle of emission, which includes a double-peaked structure in northern autumn and winter, also appears realistic. Significant increases to lifting rates are produced for any sensible choices of parameters controlling the sub-grid distributions used, but results are sensitive to the smallest scale of variability considered, which high-resolution modelling suggests should be O(1 km) or less. Use of such models in future will permit the use of a diagnosed (rather than prescribed) variable gustiness intensity, which should further enhance dust lifting in the southern hemisphere in particular.

A new data set of soil mineralogy for dust-cycle modeling

The mineralogy of airborne dust affects the impact of dust particles on direct and indirect radiative forcing, on atmospheric chemistry and on biogeochemical cycling. It is determined partly by the mineralogy of the dust-source regions and partly by size-dependent fractionation during erosion and transport. Here we present a data set that characterizes the clay and silt-sized fractions of global soil units in terms of the abundance of 12 minerals that are important for dust–climate interactions: quartz, feldspars, illite, smectite, kaolinite, chlorite, vermiculite, mica, calcite, gypsum, hematite and goethite. The basic mineralogical information is derived from the literature, and is then expanded following explicit rules, in order to characterize as many soil units as possible. We present three alternative realizations of the mineralogical maps, taking the uncertainties in the mineralogical data into account. We examine the implications of the new database for calculations of the single scattering albedo of airborne dust and thus for dust radiative forcing.

Population ecology of the Asian house rat (Rattus tanezumi) in complex lowland agroecosystems in the Philippines

Context. Rattus tanezumi (the Asian house rat) is the principal rodent pest of rice and coconut crops in the Philippines. Little is known about the population and breeding ecology of R. tanezumi in complex agroecosystems; thus, current methods of rodent control may be inappropriate or poorly implemented. Aims. To investigate the habitat use, population dynamics and breeding biology of R. tanezumi in complex lowland agroecosystems of the Sierra Madre Biodiversity Corridor, Luzon, and to develop ecologically based rodent management (EBRM) strategies that will target specific habitats at specific times to improve cost-efficiency and minimise non-target risks. Methods. An 18-month trapping study was conducted in rice monoculture, rice adjacent to coconut, coconut groves, coconut-based agroforest and forest habitats. Trapped animals were measured, marked and assessed for breeding condition. Key results. Five species of rodent were captured across all habitats with R. tanezumi the major pest species in both the rice and coconut crops. The stage of the rice crop was a major factor influencing the habitat use and breeding biology of R. tanezumi. In rice fields, R. tanezumi abundance was highest during the tillering to ripening stages of the rice crop and lowest during the seedling stage, whereas in coconut groves abundance was highest from the seedling to tillering stage of nearby rice crops. Peaks in breeding activity occurred from the booting stage of the rice crop until just after harvest, but >10% of females were in breeding condition at each month of the year. Conclusions. In contrast with the practices applied by rice farmers in the study region, the most effective time for lethal management based on the breeding ecology of R. tanezumi is likely to be during the early stages of the rice crop, before the booting stage. Farmers generally apply control actions as individuals. We recommend coordinated community action. Continuous breeding throughout the year may necessitate two community campaigns per rice cropping season. To limit population growth, the most effective time to reduce nesting habitat is from the booting stage until harvest. Implications. By adopting EBRM strategies, we expect a reduction in costs associated with rodent control, as well as improved yield and reduced risk to non-target species.

House price dynamics in Panama City

In this paper, we analyze the drivers of the housing markets in Panama City. To the best of our knowledge, no formal academic analysis has been documented on the Panamanian housing market. In this paper, we outline key unique characteristics of the market and provide a brief review of broader economic indicators and housing market literature. Using a unique dataset comprising property-level information over 2007–2014, we employ a hedonic modeling framework to analyze the impacts of certain amenities and drivers that may affect housing values. The results indicate several unique features of the Panamanian housing market.

House price dynamics and bank herding: European empirical evidence

This paper investigates the behavior of residential property and examines the linkages between house price dynamics and bank herding behavior. The analysis presents evidence that irrational behaviour may have played a significant role in several countries, including; United Kingdom, Spain, Denmark, Sweden and Ireland. In addition, we also provide evidence indicative of herding behaviour in the European residential mortgage loan market. Granger Causality tests indicate that non-fundamentally justified prices dynamics contributed to herding by lenders and that this behaviour was a response by the banks as a group to common information on residential property assets. In contrast, in Germany, Portugal and Austria, residential property prices were largely explained by fundamentals. Furthermore, these countries show no evidence of either irrational price bubbles or herd behaviour in the mortgage market. Granger Causality tests indicate that both variables are independent.

Advances in understanding mineral dust and boundary layer processes over the Sahara from Fennec aircraft observations

The Fennec climate program aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include: (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sized up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in-situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as CCN and IN at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold-pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse mode size distributions and AERONET sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Quantifying particle size and turbulent scale dependence of dust uplift in the Sahara using aircraft measurements

The first size-resolved airborne measurements of dust fluxes and the first dust flux measurements from the central Sahara are presented and compared with a parameterization by Kok (2011a). High-frequency measurements of dust size distribution were obtained from 0.16 to 300 µm diameter, and eddy covariance fluxes were derived. This is more than an order of magnitude larger size range than previous flux estimates. Links to surface emission are provided by analysis of particle drift velocities. Number flux is described by a −2 power law between 1 and 144 µm diameter, significantly larger than the 12 µm upper limit suggested by Kok (2011a). For small particles, the deviation from a power law varies with terrain type and the large size cutoff is correlated with atmospheric vertical turbulent kinetic energy, suggesting control by vertical transport rather than emission processes. The measured mass flux mode is in the range 30–100 µm. The turbulent scales important for dust flux are from 0.1 km to 1–10 km. The upper scale increases during the morning as boundary layer depth and eddy size increase. All locations where large dust fluxes were measured had large topographical variations. These features are often linked with highly erodible surface features, such as wadis or dunes. We also hypothesize that upslope flow and flow separation over such features enhance the dust flux by transporting large particles out of the saltation layer. The tendency to locate surface flux measurements in open, flat terrain means these favored dust sources have been neglected in previous studies.

A comparison of two dust uplift schemes within the same general circulation model

Aeolian dust modelling has improved significantly over the last ten years and many institutions now consistently model dust uplift, transport and deposition in general circulation models (GCMs). However, the representation of dust in GCMs is highly variable between modelling communities due to differences in the uplift schemes employed and the representation of the global circulation that subsequently leads to dust deflation. In this study two different uplift schemes are incorporated in the same GCM. This approach enables a clearer comparison of the dust uplift schemes themselves, without the added complexity of several different transport and deposition models. The global annual mean dust aerosol optical depths (at 550 nm) using two different dust uplift schemes were found to be 0.014 and 0.023—both lying within the estimates from the AeroCom project. However, the models also have appreciably different representations of the dust size distribution adjacent to the West African coast and very different deposition at various sites throughout the globe. The different dust uplift schemes were also capable of influencing the modelled circulation, surface air temperature, and precipitation despite the use of prescribed sea surface temperatures. This has important implications for the use of dust models in AMIP-style (Atmospheric Modelling Intercomparison Project) simulations and Earth-system modelling.

A critical evaluation of the ability of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) thermal infrared red-green-blue rendering to identify dust events: theoretical analysis

Using a combination of idealized radiative transfer simulations and a case study from the first field campaign of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) in southern Morocco, this paper provides a systematic assessment of the limitations of the widely used Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) red-green-blue (RGB) thermal infrared dust product. Both analyses indicate that the ability of the product to identify dust, via its characteristic pink coloring, is strongly dependent on the column water vapor, the lower tropospheric lapse rate, and dust altitude. In particular, when column water vapor exceeds ∼20–25 mm, dust presence, even for visible optical depths of the order 0.8, is effectively masked. Variability in dust optical properties also has a marked impact on the imagery, primarily as a result of variability in dust composition. There is a moderate sensitivity to the satellite viewing geometry, particularly in moist conditions. The underlying surface can act to confound the signal seen through variations in spectral emissivity, which are predominantly manifested in the 8.7μm SEVIRI channel. In addition, if a temperature inversion is present, typical of early morning conditions over the Sahara and Sahel, an increased dust loading can actually reduce the pink coloring of the RGB image compared to pristine conditions. Attempts to match specific SEVIRI observations to simulations using SAMUM measurements are challenging because of high uncertainties in surface skin temperature and emissivity. Recommendations concerning the use and interpretation of the SEVIRI RGB imagery are provided on the basis of these findings.

Energy performance ratings and house prices in Wales: an empirical study

This paper investigates the price effect of EPC ratings on the residential dwelling prices in Wales. It examines the capitalisation of energy efficiency ratings into house prices using two approaches. The first adopts a cross-sectional framework to investigate the effect of EPC band (and EPC rating) on a large sample of dwelling transactions. The second approach is based on a repeat-sales methodology to examine the impact of EPC band and rating on house price appreciation. The results show that, controlling for other price influencing dwelling characteristics, EPC band does affect house prices. This observed influence of EPC on price may not be a result of energy performance alone; the effect may be due to non-energy related benefits associated with certain types, specifications and ages of dwellings or there may be unobserved quality differences unrelated to energy performance such as better quality fittings and materials. An analysis of the private rental segment reveals that, in contrast to the general market, low-EPC rated properties were not traded at a significant discount, suggesting different implicit prices of potential energy savings for landlords and owner-occupiers.